Winter 2017-18: Discussion

pistolpetes11

sryanbruen wrote: »

I’ve posted charts back in November showing there was no SSW in 2010. I’ll go over it again later tonight if you’d like me to.

I will try route up the thread , but nearly sure as mentioned there was a Canadian warming , but I may be wrong :eek:

dacogawa

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I will try route up the thread , but nearly sure as mentioned there was a Canadian warming , but I may be wrong :eek:

Did you mean a Canadian warning (M.T.) or A Canadian warming?

I'll get my coat... I'll need it for next week anyway!

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056056522&page=2

There might have been a minor warming in Canada at some stage, but there was not a Sudden Stratopsheric warming. Off topic, but whatever happened to Redsunset?

Elmer Blooker

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Was there not some Canadian warming in November? I might be wrong on that.

I don't know about a SSW in 2010 but there was a "Canadian warming" in Dec but it wasn't stratospheric. Maybe this is what you remember?

A retrogressing low from the Atlantic brought some record breaking mild temperatures over the eastern Canadian Arctic over the weekend. Baker Lake and Rankin Inlet in Nunavut both hit all time December highs on Saturday Dec 18th. Both communities rose above the freezing mark for the first time on record in December. Baker Lake hit +1.1C on the 18th, eclipsing the previous monthly high of -1.1C on Dec 25 1999 (records go back to 1946). Rankin Inlet hit +0.9C, eclipsing the previous December high of -2.0C on Dec 17 2002 (records go back to 1981).

The Canadian arctic was obviously on the "other side" of the big Greenland high with a long track of southerly winds while we froze.
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/december-2010-global-weather-extremes-summary.html

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

Yep, the last time February had a SSW event was 2009. The last time we even had a SSW in general was March 2016 and the last time we had a SSW during the meteorological Winter season was January 2013 so we're overdue it. Here's the previous two SSW events to compare with this one.

January 2013




March 2016

The 2013 warming produced a very cold March in the UK. Netweather posters were heard to say if only this had happened a month earlier...
Actually the tale end of February was cold too.
As regards next weeks weather, it will be funny if the roles are reversed, England misses out, as front decays over the Irish sea, while Ireland gets a good dumping of snow for a change.

sryanbruen

Here's charts on several times the stratosphere did attempt to get warming events going in 2010-11 but there was no SSW. I don't see any Canadian Warming here either - for the stratosphere at least. What Elmer posted could have been what you were thinking of.

sryanbruen

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I was under the impression 2010 was SSW event also , Redsunset used to brilliant threads on them each year

I am looking at Redsunset's stratosphere threads now and my god, what have I been missing out on! They are absolutely terrific, such an invaluable source, genie mac.

gabeeg

Genie mac

sryanbruen

The stratosphere is starting to go up.

George Sunsnow

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/959543178549514240

mahoney_j

George Sunsnow wrote: »

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/959543178549514240

So in simple mans terms what dose that mean for our weather ....

George Sunsnow

mahoney_j wrote: »

So in simple mans terms what dose that mean for our weather ....

Potentially a split in the huge low pressure area normally circumnavigating the pole
That usually allows one half to sink south which would turn Europe very cold if it sank there which is what is possible
In nov 2010 a lobe of it fell down through the North Sea and you know what followed
We’ll know in a few weeks
If a lobe of polar vortex drops further east,Europe still goes into the freezer
One result of that would be to stall Atlantic fronts over Ireland and we get very wet

The other possibility is high pressure builds in the Atlantic and we get very dry with some colder outbreaks
Check back in 2 weeks and we’ll update you

mahoney_j

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Potentially a split in the huge low pressure area normally circumnavigating the pole
That usually allows one half to sink south which would turn Europe very cold if it sank there which is what is possible
In nov 2010 a lobe of it fell down through the North Sea and you know what followed
We’ll know in a few weeks
If a lobe of polar vortex drops further east,Europe still goes into the freezer
One result of that would be to stall Atlantic fronts over Ireland and we get very wet

The other possibility is high pressure builds in the Atlantic and we get very dry with some colder outbreaks
Check back in 2 weeks and we’ll update you

Ta for that ,if you’ve any connections I’ll take the dry cold option please !!!

patneve2

It really could be an interesting end to the winter - somewhere in Europe may get absolutely slammed in the latter part of February. If it does go that way hopefully we'll be on the right side of the high pressure. An interesting month of model watching ahead (hopefully).

MidMan25

It would be great if posts with multiple charts could make use of the spoiler function. Quite annoying to browse on a phone.

sryanbruen

Maybe at this stage, the stratosphere is worthy of its own thread?

https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/959715079397806081

sryanbruen

ECM for the 12th February in the stratosphere:

Clonmel1000

Hopefully next weeks "event" whatever it brings will be the end of the icy weather for commuters. It's been a tough cold wet Jan hopefully we'll see some improvements in Feb before spring arrives.

JCX BXC

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Hopefully next weeks "event" whatever it brings will be the end of the icy weather for commuters. .

Bring the end? Here in West Clare I've genuinely had 1 morning where there was any actual ice.

kod87

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Hopefully next weeks "event" whatever it brings will be the end of the icy weather for commuters. It's been a tough cold wet Jan hopefully we'll see some improvements in Feb before spring arrives.

It's been a chilly jan, but i don't recall many harsh frosts or much ice tbh, lots of rain and generally cold here in tipp anyway.

BLIZZARD7

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Hopefully next weeks "event" whatever it brings will be the end of the icy weather for commuters. It's been a tough cold wet Jan hopefully we'll see some improvements in Feb before spring arrives.

Quite the opposite is looking more likely looking at the stratosphere posts above yours - A very cold end of February and into March is more likely than normal.

sryanbruen

I've been trying to find similar SSW events to the one expected here in February 2018. This is the only one I've found, in January 1985.

February and March 1985 were both fairly cold months.

sryanbruen

Another warm up near Greenland in the stratosphere on 17th February on the GFS 18z.

Oscar Bravo

Beautiful morning in Castlebar. Clear blue skies with excellent visibility in calm conditions

JCX BXC

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Beautiful morning in Castlebar. Clear blue skies with excellent visibility in calm conditions

Ditto in West Clare if only it was June.

km79

JCX BXC wrote: »

Ditto in West Clare if only it was June.

And east Galway
Nice change

Soccarboy11

Clear here in cork city too, still ice on the cars here. Beautiful clear winter's day

sryanbruen

The UKMO do show the prospects of potential easterly winds after the SSW.

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days
UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Feb 2018 to Saturday 17 Feb 2018:
After a cold and frosty start on Thursday, a band of rain, sleet and snow is likely to move slowly southeastwards through the day and possibly into Friday. Into the weekend, further bands of rain, sleet and snow are likely to push southeast across the UK. Thereafter, much of this period will remain colder than normal, with the risk of snow as further frontal systems bump in to the cold air and stall across the UK. In between, there will be a mixture of sunny spells and wintry showers with the strongest winds in the north and west. Where winds fall light, there will be some severe frost. Towards the end of this period, it may turn more settled bringing more prolonged drier weather, with frost and fog becoming widespread.

UK Outlook for Sunday 18 Feb 2018 to Sunday 4 Mar 2018:
Through the rest of February it will remain cold but the weather may be more settled with widespread frost and fog overnight. This looks set to last for a while with a greater chance of easterly winds, potentially bringing some very cold weather. However, into the beginning of March, it may turn more changeable at times, although any milder and wetter spells may be fairly short-lived with temperatures generally staying colder than normal.

sryanbruen

GFS 06z was a lot similar to the 18z for the stratosphere.

sryanbruen

ECM has the zonal winds close to full reversal.