Winter 2017-18: Discussion

sryanbruen

It's beginning to look more clear that Europe will benefit from this SSW and not North America with troughs setting up in the Mediterranean and blocking really going to get itself going up to the north.



ECM now clearly showing the zonal winds going to reverse.

nacho libre

I need to visit Japan! Apparently snow depth records have been broken over there this year.

Calibos

nacho libre wrote: »

I need to visit Japan! Apparently snow depth records have been broken over there this year.

Deeper than this!!!??:eek:

Gaoth Laidir

This is from Met Eireann's Farming discussion page. A bit harsh. It's actually not a bad little country.

It's going to get wetter again as we head into mid-Feb and rainfall figures going forwards will be nearly 200% for some western counties with an average figure of 130% for the country as a hole.

Aurora1966

If the blocking Azores system remains in situ (north of Azores) north mid Atlantic, the opportunity for cold is favourite but not odds on. There is a milder regime over the eastern US at mo, once the cold front moves down next week there is a chance for one more winter storm there, if this occurs the power of this storm will likely barrel the Azores high and release it back towards Iberia, if this happens, we can forget cold and bring back mild Atlantic windy rainy spells for at least a month. So keep an eye on what goes on in Trump land next week, thats my favoured outlook.

Aurora1966

If the blocking Azores system remains in situ (north of Azores) north mid Atlantic, the opportunity for cold is favourite but not odds on. There is a milder regime over the eastern US at mo, once the cold front moves down next week there is a chance for one more winter storm there, if this occurs the power of this storm will likely barrel the Azores high and release it back towards Iberia, if this happens, we can forget cold and bring back mild Atlantic windy rainy spells for at least a month. So keep an eye on what goes on in Trump land next week, thats my favoured outlook.

sryanbruen

Good to see the ECM back the GFS up in the second phase of the SSW on 17 February.





After a brief dip, the temperatures in the stratosphere are going up again right now.



The provisional CET up to the 6th February stands at 3.1c which is an anomaly of -1.3c below the 1961-90 average. Just thought I'd throw this in.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

gerrybhoy

Right,for the dummies ,what does that mean? Snow, cold? getting the BBQ out?:D

sryanbruen

gerrybhoy wrote: »

Right,for the dummies ,what does that mean? Snow, cold? getting the BBQ out?:D

Have you been paying attention to the posts lately? I mean, that's what this thread is basically about recently with post after post about SSW .

Here's a simple video showing you what SSW is in basic detail.

The only time I've seen comparable to this incoming SSW/pv split is early 1985 which then brought us into the freezer on quite a beasterly. That's only one sample, though the models and other things like ENSO (historically) do support the idea of a beasterly for late February and early March.

gerrybhoy

sryanbruen wrote: »

Have you been paying attention to the posts lately? I mean, that's what this thread is basically about recently with post after post about SSW .

Here's a simple video showing you what SSW is in basic detail.

The only time I've seen comparable to this incoming SSW/pv split is early 1985 which then brought us into the freezer on quite a beasterly. That's only one sample, though the models and other things like ENSO (historically) do support the idea of a beasterly for late February and early March.

Much appreciated sryanbruen,love the posts from yerself and Kermit etc,only time im interested in weather is winter for the snow and in the summer for our yearly few days of sun

BLIZZARD7

Some great technical info on the workings and impacts of an SSW here.


https://mobile.twitter.com/alopezlang/status/961258756037365760?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.netweather.tv%2Fforum%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Falopezlang%2Fstatus%2F961258756037365760

sryanbruen

https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/961240195336204288

sryanbruen

Something's not normal here, the BBC tweeting about SSW directly.

Mmmmm :cool:.

https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/961289736903118848

UKMO do mention easterly winds and at the end say that the beginning of March may turn more changeable at times - always have to cover their sides don't they?

UK Outlook for Monday 12 Feb 2018 to Wednesday 21 Feb 2018:
Monday will be a cold day with frequent wintry showers, mainly in the north and west, and with some sunshine for eastern areas. It will be windy, with gales in the northwest, and also a risk of gales in the south for a time on Tuesday when an Atlantic frontal system spreads slightly milder air and outbreaks of rain eastwards, clearing late in the day. Through the rest of the week frontal systems will bring briefly less cold conditions with rain, hill snow and strong winds, followed by brighter weather with wintry showers. Towards the end of this period, it may turn more settled bringing increasingly prolonged drier weather, with a higher chance of easterly winds. It will be generally colder than normal with widespread overnight frosts.

UK Outlook for Thursday 22 Feb 2018 to Thursday 8 Mar 2018:
Through the rest of February it will remain cold but the weather may be drier and more settled with widespread frost overnight. This looks set to last for a while with a greater chance of easterly winds, potentially bringing some very cold weather. However, into the beginning of March, it may turn more changeable at times, although any milder conditions are likely to be short-lived and may bring with them a risk of snow. Temperatures are likely to stay colder than normal.

sryanbruen

https://twitter.com/MillinMan1/status/961330677278035969

The_Brood

To my understanding the deal with Ireland was supposed to be "ok, so there's no real summer of any kind, but at least there's no real winter either."

that...is not the case. There is a very real, very long winter, and then a few months of something a bit less like winter, and then back to winter.

JCX BXC

By no winter they mean no snow, it's an eternal autumn!

Pangea

Fantastic forecast here once again. Talks about polar vortex. Probably the longest most detailed forecast I've ever watched, a must watch for weather nerds https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10155559049009209&id=287501884208

sryanbruen

Mmmmmm, very interesting analysis by Judah Cohen.

I wanted to cast your eye to this part of it in particular:

Two weeks following the January 1985 PV split one of the greatest historical Arctic outbreaks was unleashed into the Eastern US (January1985cold). This contrasts with February 1991 that was an overall mild month though the end of the month was slightly below normal temperatures across the Eastern US with more significant cold in Eastern Canada. The temperature response across northern Eurasia was more consistent including Europe. For both January 1985 and February 1991 cold was widespread across much of Europe.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

sryanbruen

Massive upgrade on some of the GEFS today for the AO with it falling off a cliff basically in the second half of February (which means stubborn high pressure building over the Arctic and in turn let cold descend into the mid-latitudes for those who don't understand this), however the majority of the consensus keep it rather negative meaning those going down to -5 or -6 index are outliers. Nevertheless, as we've seen from the model runs, there's a lot of potential there. One of those outliers by the way is the control run of the GFS.

George Sunsnow

One for Syran again
Early February 1983 was quite snowy in the east iirc
It was around the time Shergar was stolen if you want to pin point it

Buffalobill29

sryanbruen wrote: »

Massive upgrade on some of the GEFS today for the AO with it falling off a cliff basically in the second half of February (which means stubborn high pressure building over the Arctic and in turn let cold descend into the mid-latitudes for those who don't understand this), however the majority of the consensus keep it rather negative meaning those going down to -5 or -6 index are outliers. Nevertheless, as we've seen from the model runs, there's a lot of potential there. One of those outliers by the way is the control run of the GFS.

So on the GEFS the AO has changed, but is there a large possibility that it will change again as it has just done so? Also if it stays negative then what would that mean for weather over Leinster in say two weeks?

BLIZZARD7

Buffalobill29 wrote: »

So on the GEFS the AO has changed, but is there a large possibility that it will change again as it has just done so? Also if it stays negative then what would that mean for weather over Leinster in say two weeks?

It could indeed change again, its heading the right way though. It was good before, just looks better today.
Not that simple at all with regard to weather over Leinster in two weeks, what we want to see is the NAO heading negative too, a combined strong -AO/-NAO is best to ensure colder weather.

BLIZZARD7

A potentially record breaking reversal in zonal winds incoming - I personally cannot wait to see how the models handle the imminent destruction of the polar vortex

sryanbruen

Even Joe Bastardi going in on it.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/961600994508443648

sryanbruen

https://twitter.com/weathertrending/status/961666314027917313

sryanbruen

George Sunsnow wrote: »

One for Syran again
Early February 1983 was quite snowy in the east iirc
It was around the time Shergar was stolen if you want to pin point it

I cannot seem to find mentions of snow in February 1983 but there were some cool charts for some parts of the first week or two of February 1983 especially with this northerly/northeasterly outbreak from the 6th-9th. Met Éireann do mention frequent hail showers for this period. The temperatures weren't remarkable despite the promising charts. For example, Dublin Airport's minimum for the month was -1.4c on the 4th. It was a rather cold month despite this with an IMT of 3.9c which is -1.4c below the 1981-2010 average. I'd imagine there would have been snowfall like you say in spite of them not mentioning it because of those charts.

BLIZZARD7

That 10th of Feb 1983 chart has Irish sea streamers/IOM shadow written all over it

George Sunsnow

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

That 10th of Feb 1983 chart has Irish sea streamers/IOM shadow written all over it

Yeah there were plenty!
Shergar was in the news for a couple of weeks around that time Syran wasn’t thinking the specific day he was taken
I remember one occasion that week a fog of heavy snow coming in off the Irish Sea in Arklow blanketing the place but it only went about 3 miles or so inland on that occasion
The schools shut early
No internet of course
No local radio
Pirates in Dublin unreceivable beyond the sugarloaf
So unless it was on RTÉ you’d no idea what was going on elsewhere
Again just jack Scott or Bill on the bbc forecast and of course Evelyn (the other one) and I remember this man :O




Froze were the days

Calibos

Just give me enough advance warning to order some Snow Crampons for me feet and Snow Socks for me tyres from Amazon lads

Oscar Bravo

STATUS YELLOW
Wind Warning for Munster, Leinster and Galway
On Saturday afternoon and evening southwest to west winds will reach mean speeds of between 55 and 65 km/h with gusts up to 110 km/h possible.

Issued:Friday 09 February 2018 12:00
Valid:Saturday 10 February 2018 15:00 to Saturday 10 February 2018 20:00

STATUS YELLOW

Rainfall Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal
Rainfall accumulations of between 30 and 40 mm are expected in 24 hours on Saturday

Issued:Friday 09 February 2018 12:00
Valid:Saturday 10 February 2018 00:00 to Saturday 10 February 2018 23:59