Winter 2017-18: Discussion

sryanbruen

Happygosad33 wrote: »

Fair enough. Did I hear correctly that Moscow recorded it highest daily total snowfall ever recently. 8.6 Inches not sure on precise figure. I was surprised to hear it was higher.

Yes, I added that to the list of abnormal things in my post along with some others that I've found.

George Sunsnow

11.4c now
Lug still has a good cover visible from Arklow despite today’s heat

sryanbruen

The potential record breaking zonal wind reversion continues. After a bit of a spike up though still well below normal, this chart shows them plummeting a bit again below 0 m/s.

Gaoth Laidir

Large Funeral wrote: »

-15 out beyond the west coast during January 1987 cold spell. Apologies for difficulty in seeing small font on isotherm! New poster seem unable to post images yet.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1987&maand=1&dag=12&uur=1200&var=2&map=1&model=noaa

I stand corrected. 850 hPa was at a relatively high altitude that day compared to other events but still, it did occur

BLIZZARD7

Large Funeral wrote: »

-15 out beyond the west coast during January 1987 cold spell. Apologies for difficulty in seeing small font on isotherm! New poster seem unable to post images yet.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1987&maand=1&dag=12&uur=1200&var=2&map=1&model=noaa

Yeah it was always surprises me how low the uppers were in 1987, a good few degrees colder than the next coldest North easterly.

Wine Goddess

sryanbruen wrote: »

The potential record breaking zonal wind reversion continues. After a bit of a spike up though still well below normal, this chart shows them plummeting a bit again below 0 m/s.

Can you say what that means please for those of us who are less educated on weather? Thanks!

George Sunsnow

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Yeah it was always surprises me how low the uppers were in 1987, a good few degrees colder than the next coldest North easterly.

January 1987 was the only time in my memory see’ing the Avoca river in Arklow completely frozen over with snow lying on it
(2010 froze the inner harbour but not the river itself)

sryanbruen

Wine Goddess wrote: »

Can you say what that means please for those of us who are less educated on weather? Thanks!

The zonal winds are reversed so rather than going west to east (which is our normal zonal flow), they go east to west and easterlies form aka beasterlies. How cold it gets from easterlies depends on how cold Europe will be. As we've seen recently, Siberia has reached near record cold levels, so if the winds become proper easterlies, air will be coming all the way from Siberia with some extraordinary cold air for the time of year. To me, that's unlikely but what I think is likely is that we'll see a freeze that will be colder than anything since 2010. Nevertheless, the zonal winds going down to the extreme shown on the chart I posted does provide a lot of opportunities for the air to be significantly cold.

NAGDEFI

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I stand corrected. 850 hPa was at a relatively high altitude that day compared to other events but still, it did occur

No worries Gaoth Laidir, it was a day that stuck in my mind. I was quite wrong on 11 March 2013, my memory deceived me.

sryanbruen

Large Funeral wrote: »

No worries Gaoth Laidir, it was a day that stuck in my mind. I was quite wrong on 11 March 2013, my memory deceived me.

11 March 2013 was still quite a remarkable day. Maximums barely getting above freezing. Parts of England didn't get above -1c all day long in comparison to nearly 19c on the same day in 2012. Plus that's the day the Channel Islands had their blizzards.

sryanbruen

Just a fun comparison I thought y'all would like to see here.

The end of the GFS 12z run.



18:00 on the 15 December 2010.



By the way, I've posted my January 1985 analysis in the Irish Weather Statistics thread for those who want to take a trip down memory lane on this month - or learn about the month and the PV split that occurred then.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057714322&page=16

Harry Palmr

Average winter day, but better than forecasts suggested, with some bright sun through the middle hours. Milder than expected.

All these weather alerts seem wasted on Waterford.

George Sunsnow

Some nice northeasterly Irish Sea fetches appearing in these easterlies increasingly

sryanbruen

Some extreme March cold is overdue anyway. March 2013 didn't set any records for maximum or minimum temperatures, it was all about the persistence of the cold then.

George Sunsnow

sryanbruen wrote: »

Some extreme March cold is overdue anyway. March 2013 didn't set any records for maximum or minimum temperatures, it was all about the persistence of the cold then.

Tbh,Id pay as little attention to the ECM tonight* as one should advisedly to the other models
Stick to 120 for now

*its not that cold

NAGDEFI

sryanbruen wrote: »

Some extreme March cold is overdue anyway. March 2013 didn't set any records for maximum or minimum temperatures, it was all about the persistence of the cold then.

Yes as far as i remember with had no -8C etc. We achieved the -7/-8 figure in 2010 and 2001.

sryanbruen

Large Funeral wrote: »

Yes as far as i remember with had no -8C etc. We achieved the -7/-8 figure in 2010 and 2001.

Yes.

UK

2013: -12.9c at Kinbrace and Aboyne on the 11th.
2010: -18.6c at Braemar on the 4th.
2006: -16.4c at Altnaharra on the 2nd.
2001: -21.7c at Kinbrace on the 3rd.

Ireland

2013: -7.6c at Markree on the 12th.
2010: -7.6c at Cavan on the 9th.
2006: -8.6c at Straide on the 3rd.
2001: -9.0c at Casement Aerodrome on the 1st.

The UK's minimum proves it was persistence than extremes.

sryanbruen

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Tbh,Id pay as little attention to the ECM tonight* as one should advisedly to the other models
Stick to 120 for now

*its not that cold

The ECM lost all my respect a while ago, I'm not even looking at it.

pad199207

sryanbruen wrote: »

The ECM lost all my respect a while ago.

Not to be discounted though, GFS a little drunk tonight i think even with the added comfort of the SSW.

Gonzo

much of this week is looking very cold indeed, not much in the way of milder interludes.

sryanbruen

pad199207 wrote: »

Not to be discounted though, GFS a little drunk tonight i think even with the added comfort of the SSW.

I am discounting it pad just like I do often with models, I'm discounting the extremes of the GFS too (thus my lordy lord message at the end of the post in that thread). Why is that? 'Cause they're all a piece of crap :P. I'd much rather my methodology than any model any day.

A cold spell is going to happen, it's just a matter of when, not if. Albeit, technically, you could kind of call this next week a cold spell too.

Plus, thought you'd cheer up after your heaviest snowfall since 2010 :rolleyes:.

pad199207

sryanbruen wrote: »

I am discounting it pad just like I do often with models, I'm discounting the extremes of the GFS too (thus my lordy lord message at the end of the post in that thread). Why is that? 'Cause they're all a piece of crap :P. I'd much rather my methodology than any model any day.

A cold spell is going to happen, it's just a matter of when, not if. Albeit, technically, you could kind of call this next week a cold spell too.

Plus, thought you'd cheer up after your heaviest snowfall since 2010 :rolleyes:.

No im back to being pissed off again :P

pad199207

3c at Knock Airport and 11c in Oak Park at 19:00

Meteorite58

A bit of everything again on Monday . Looks very windy at this stage.

MJohnston

WRF is showing some sneaky snow overnight and into tomorrow, though only really the AROME is in any kind of agreement with it about it reaching the east:

Happygosad33

sryanbruen wrote: »

Yes.

UK

2013: -12.9c at Kinbrace and Aboyne on the 11th.
2010: -18.6c at Braemar on the 4th.
2006: -16.4c at Altnaharra on the 2nd.
2001: -21.7c at Kinbrace on the 3rd.

Ireland

2013: -7.6c at Markree on the 12th.
2010: -7.6c at Cavan on the 9th.
2006: -8.6c at Straide on the 3rd.
2001: -9.0c at Casement Aerodrome on the 1st.

The UK's minimum proves it was persistence than extremes.

You should check out what the minimums were for Katesbridge and Castlederg in NI. Two of the extreme locations when it comes to low temperatures there. Castlederg is just 2km from the Donegal border.

sryanbruen

Happygosad33 wrote: »

You should check out what the minimums were for Katesbridge and Castlederg in NI. Two of the extreme locations when it comes to low temperatures there. Castlederg is just 2km from the Donegal border.

Where can I find their historical data?

Happygosad33

A piece on the late March blizzard in 2013 by the Met office.

Overcast but mainly dry on 21st, easterly winds strengthening with a gust of 69 mph recorded at Orlock Head (County Down). An area of rain, quickly turning to snow, pushed west in the strong to gale-force easterly winds into all areas in the early hours of 22nd, accumulating at all levels and giving deep drifts in County Antrim which led to widespread disruption to homes, businesses and livestock; Ballypatrick Forest recorded a depth of 41 cm. The wind eased but snow showers continued through 23rd and 24th, heaviest in the east. Showers continued on 25th and 26th, with snow flurries on high ground.

Happygosad33

sryanbruen wrote: »

Where can I find their historical data?

I think weather.co.uk gives temperature mins for Castlederg back for a couple of years. Katesbridge, no clue. Might be worth emailing the Met Office if you're curious enough or someone here might know.

vicwatson

Ninja sneachta