Winter 2017-18: Discussion

MJohnston

I'm sure MT can speak for his own methodology but it seems to me less forecasting, more outlining the longer-lasting conditions that he calls "global drivers" and then speaking about the kind of weather conditions they make more likely to happen.

So, Pacific Decadal Oscillation or Solar Cycles are looking likely to be X or Y, and that is likely to create the conditions for A or B types of weather. Of course he throws some actual predictions on top there, but at least it's probabilistic and well explained.

In the end I'd rather hear about experimental, yet scientifically founded "guesses" rather than some people who demonstrate precisely zero scientific understanding and say something reductive like it's all a spoof.

nagdefy

MJohnston wrote: »

I'm sure MT can speak for his own methodology but it seems to me less forecasting, more outlining the longer-lasting conditions that he calls "global drivers" and then speaking about the kind of weather conditions they make more likely to happen.

So, Pacific Decadal Oscillation or Solar Cycles are looking likely to be X or Y, and that is likely to create the conditions for A or B types of weather. Of course he throws some actual predictions on top there, but at least it's probabilistic and well explained.

In the end I'd rather hear about experimental, yet scientifically founded "guesses" rather than some people who demonstrate precisely zero scientific understanding and say something reductive like it's all a spoof.

I agree MJ with most of what you are saying and as i outlined in previous posts MT etc use the Science available.

Just the bit i emboldened. I think the burden of proof in making a long range forecast is on the long range forecaster, not the person who dismisses it without proof?

NickNickleby

Hi everybody.
I watch the weather forum a lot. Especially after Halloween! I have great admiration for those of you who can gather and interpret data, and then go on to make educated 'guesses' as to how the weather will behave in the future. We all know they're not guesses at all, but I don't say prediction because to me that suggests certainty, and with this stuff how could anyone be CERTAIN.

My opinion on weather is that its like getting a pot of hot water, stirring it gently, then adding various amounts of warmed dyed water in different parts, then predicting how that will affect a very specific location in the pot. Of course, with absolutely mad levels of data collection, over many cycles, and a super-duper computer , it might be possible to make a prediction on the next attempt.

As you can tell from my hamfisted previous paragraph, I know sod all about meteorology, but I think I can appreciate the difficult science required. (I actually thought of this one evening while pouring milk into my tea!:D

Keep it up guys, like most people on here, I admire and appreciate your efforts.

MJohnston

nagdefy wrote: »

I agree MJ with most of what you are saying and as i outlined in previous posts MT etc use the Science available.

Just the bit i emboldened. I think the burden of proof in making a long range forecast is on the long range forecaster, not the person who dismisses it without proof?

Well, what I'd say is there's a burden on the forecaster to fully justify the predictions they're making with "proof" (which I would simply see as a solid scientific reasoning), but there is no burden on the forecaster to ensure that every single layman understands them.

Sometimes with people, there's an immediate attitude of dismissal of things they don't understand, and it's not because the expert hasn't proven themselves.

Oneiric 3

sryanbruen wrote: »

let’s say James Madden, Nathan Rao etc.

Oneiric 3

If one was to make a long range prediction based long term averages alone, I wonder if one could make maybe make fairly reasonable long-range forecast? though of course, weather rarely follows a set pattern on a year by year basis.

However, this chart I generated showing the 1981-2010 MSLP pattern (based on a running 7 day period) for the country as a whole for the winter season, does show a fairly interesting pattern, with 3 major 'dips', occurring at specific intervals, namely: end of December, mid-late Jan and mid Feb, which would indicate that, on average, the most unsettled spells of the Winter season are likely to occur at these times. Same would with peaks, which would suggest 3 or 4 relatively settled periods to occur at fairly specific intervals in the season.




Data from the ECMWF.

Rougies

NickNickleby wrote: »

My opinion on weather is that its like getting a pot of hot water, stirring it gently, then adding various amounts of warmed dyed water in different parts, then predicting how that will affect a very specific location in the pot. Of course, with absolutely mad levels of data collection, over many cycles, and a super-duper computer , it might be possible to make a prediction on the next attempt.

As you can tell from my hamfisted previous paragraph, I know sod all about meteorology, but I think I can appreciate the difficult science required. (I actually thought of this one evening while pouring milk into my tea!:D

That's not a bad analogy at all.

You reminded me of this great little paragraph:

Imagine a rotating sphere that is 12,800 kilometers (8000 miles) in diameter, has a bumpy surface, is surrounded by a 40-kilometer-deep mixture of different gases whose concentrations vary both spatially and over time, and is heated, along with its surrounding gases, by a nuclear reactor 150 million kilometers (93 million miles) away. Imagine also that this sphere is revolving around the nuclear reactor and that some locations are heated more during one part of the revolution and other locations are heated during another part of the revolution. And imagine that this mixture of gases continually receives inputs from the surface below, generally calmly but sometimes through violent and highly localized injections. Then, imagine that after watching the gaseous mixture, you are expected to predict its state at one location on the sphere one, two, or more days into the future. This is essentially the task encountered day by day by a weather forecaster (Ryan, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1982).

Rebelbrowser

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

If one was to make a long range prediction based long term averages alone, I wonder if one could make maybe make fairly reasonable long-range forecast? though of course, weather rarely follows a set pattern on a year by year basis.

However, this chart I generated showing the 1981-2010 MSLP pattern (based on a running 7 day period) for the country as a whole for the winter season, does show a fairly interesting pattern, with 3 major 'dips', occurring at specific intervals, namely: end of December, mid-late Jan and mid Feb, which would indicate that, on average, the most unsettled spells of the Winter season are likely to occur at these times. Same would with peaks, which would suggest 3 or 4 relatively settled periods to occur at fairly specific intervals in the season.




Data from the ECMWF.

Just from experience, it is amazing how often it is mild on Christmas day but colder by 28/29 December. Your chart seems to support that somewhat. 2010 was admittedly the very opposite but more a case of the exception proving the rule I think.

M.T. Cranium

The main point of disagreement I would have with the critical comments is that when I describe a mix of weather types during the winter, this is

(a) normally what happens, and

(b) in my forecast, is tied to fairly specific periods so that actually it is not an effort to muddy the waters by saying everything might happen, but an attempt to say when the various components will happen.

Also I attempt to give some idea of the relative frequency of the different types compared to normal. This winter, I think very mild weather might be less frequent than it has been in several recent winters, and colder than average temperatures might be more frequent. That is fairly specific, then I go into some details about when I foresee these trends.

As several have noted, the pursuit of long-range forecasting is a science under development, and nobody seriously involved in it would argue that it is a developed science (the way astronomy is a developed science, I went to Baker City Oregon last August 21st expecting to see a total eclipse of the Sun at 10:22 a.m. and one thought that crossed my mind when it actually happened was, what are we doing wrong in our science?)

On the other hand, the general state of long-range forecasting in North America seems to be a bit further advanced, perhaps because we have a more variable climate so that different regimes show their hand a bit earlier? It seems to me that most of the errors in LRF here are matters of degree or exact boundaries between regimes, and quite often the large scale picture is what many forecasters have said they expect. This is especially true when there's an El Nino. For Europe, I suspect it is more difficult because variations are smaller and everything depends on blocking or no blocking, we can get our cold weather more directly with a continent between us and source regions for arctic air.

So none of this has changed much since I got involved in the subject over ten years ago, and it probably doesn't help that in the background of the science (but in the foreground of public perception) we have these same few people making exactly the same forecast (worst winter ever) time after time. I think that is skewing perception because serious students of this difficult (and admittedly rudimentary) science would not expect the same thing to happen every winter.

I found the pressure analysis above to be interesting, I suspect it may have to do with background pressure variations in the atmosphere caused by interactions between the Sun and sources of gravitational energy. Although the curves look quite pronounced, Oneiric would probably agree that differences of 5 to 10 mb are not a large component of the overall variability (which is closer to 50-100 mb). So if this were the only factor at work, we would just see a slight uptick in storminess around those times of lower pressures.

I analyzed some pressure stats for Malin Head over a roughly similar period and found significant troughs (10-15 mb) around the times of new and full moons in December and January. This tendency fades out in February and March. Some time I might start a thread about some research I've done into the dynamics that might be causing those oscillations, but even 10-15 mb, while it may sound significant, is a rather small portion of the overall variability.

I have come to less dramatic conclusions than Ken Ring about lunar effects, but I think the Moon does have some influence on atmospheric variations, however, it is not a strong enough signal to dominate so it has to work with larger scale variations that are caused by independent factors. My research shows that you can get some fairly large signals if you divide the data into groups of similar weather patterns, as opposed to trying to find the signals in all the data. However, I might have to live about five centuries to get anywhere near the end of the trail in this research so as that's not too likely I am hoping to get it at least adequately described before I pass, then somebody else can have the fun I've had trying to decode all of this.

Danno

nagdefy wrote: »

Though her last quote from Sagon is a little pop at religion i feel, which is out of order for a weather forecast. I feel she's bringing her own personal beliefs into a weather forecast.

Exactly, it's very condescending and has no place in a publicly funded broadcast from a publicly funded organisation. I abhor those who use their fields of expertise to have a cut from "above" whilst equally I despise comments directed at organisations that try to do their best - i.e. unwarranted abuse of forecasts gone wrong by Met Eireann, etc...

JCX BXC

Danno wrote: »

Exactly, it's very condescending and has no place in a publicly funded broadcast from a publicly funded organisation.

While I don't disagree with the point, I'd like to point out that before the news starts, what do we have? The Angeles.

nagdefy

Danno wrote: »

Exactly, it's very condescending and has no place in a publicly funded broadcast from a publicly funded organisation. I abhor those who use their fields of expertise to have a cut from "above" whilst equally I despise comments directed at organisations that try to do their best - i.e. unwarranted abuse of forecasts gone wrong by Met Eireann, etc...

I think it was on the TV3 night show that she was giggling away at Danny Healy Rae's climate views. We all know Danny HR doesn't have the most enlightened views on Climate Change and wouldn't be one for a scientific approach. Yet she came across as a rude know it all. In contrast when Healy Rae was making his infamous Dail speech Eamonn Ryan of the Green Party conducted himself with dignity and didn't appeal to the lowest common denominator of the tittering school girl behaviour.

As MT stated in an earlier post tonight he wished Meteorology was as advanced as Astronomy (predicting eclipses etc). So really Evelyn isn't in a position to laugh and condescend until the Science evolves further.

nagdefy

JCX BXC wrote: »

While I don't disagree with the point, I'd like to point out that before the news starts, what do we have? The Angeles.

It's not an argument for this forum JCX and i take your point.

However i look on the Angelus as a moment of reflection for those of all faiths and none. But perhaps you are right and it's too associated with Catholicism.

Danno

JCX BXC wrote: »

While I don't disagree with the point, I'd like to point out that before the news starts, what do we have? The Angeles.

With the risk of being rude by replying and de-railing this thread into a science V theology battle, I would say that this island's heritage is predominantly a christian one and that our nation's tradition should not be erased for the sakes of it. I am quite happy that RTE have taken the strongly Catholic tone away from the 90 sec broadcast to reflect a broader society whilst keeping with some semblance of tradition.

We have a strong sense of history in this island, and this ought to be preserved outright, regardless of who it offends. If it offends anyone, there is Rosslare and they do sell one-way tickets without quibble. We have produced some amazing people as a nation that have inspired the world over, either because of, or in spite of, our culture and tradition. We must strive never to lose this facet, otherwise we lose the very foundation of who we are.

JCX BXC

Danno wrote: »

We have a strong sense of history in this island, and this ought to be preserved outright, regardless of who it offends. If it offends anyone, there is Rosslare and they do sell one-way tickets without quibble.

But you just said "Exactly, it's very condescending and has no place in a publicly funded broadcast from a publicly funded organisation"

Double standards?

Danno

nagdefy wrote: »

I think it was on the TV3 night show that she was giggling away at Danny Healy Rae's climate views. We all know Danny HR doesn't have the most enlightened views on Climate Change and wouldn't be one for a scientific approach. Yet she came across as a rude know it all. In contrast when Healy Rae was making his infamous Dail speech Eamonn Ryan of the Green Party conducted himself with dignity and didn't appeal to the lowest common denominator of the tittering school girl behaviour.

As MT stated in an earlier post tonight he wished Meteorology was as advanced as Astronomy (predicting eclipses etc). So really Evelyn isn't in a position to laugh and condescend until the Science evolves further.

Exactly, and I'd bet my bottom dollar that Evelyn takes her couple of foreign trips away to sunnier climes each year burning tons upon tons of fossil fuels jetting herself to her desired destination. The whole "do as I say, not as I do" attitude is very rude. Ditto for that Ryan fellow who has his papers chauffeured to Dail Eireann whilst "seen to be doing the good thing by taking the bus" via taxpayers money is sickening to see.

Danno

JCX BXC wrote: »

But you just said "Exactly, it's very condescending and has no place in a publicly funded broadcast from a publicly funded organisation"

Double standards?

No double standards at all... they can choose not to lecture in the first place.

up for anything

nagdefy wrote: »

We all know Danny HR doesn't have the most enlightened views on Climate Change and wouldn't be one for a scientific approach.

"“God above is in charge of the weather and we here can’t do anything about it,” he told the Dáil during a debate on climate change on Wednesday."

Danno wrote: »

With the risk of being rude by replying and de-railing this thread into a science V theology battle, I would say that this island's heritage is predominantly a christian one and that our nation's tradition should not be erased for the sakes of it. I am quite happy that RTE have taken the strongly Catholic tone away from the 90 sec broadcast to reflect a broader society whilst keeping with some semblance of tradition.

We have a strong sense of history in this island, and this ought to be preserved outright, regardless of who it offends. If it offends anyone, there is Rosslare and they do sell one-way tickets without quibble. We have produced some amazing people as a nation that have inspired the world over, either because of, or in spite of, our culture and tradition. We must strive never to lose this facet, otherwise we lose the very foundation of who we are.

I never thought I'd see this in the Weather forum. It better belongs in a berate the refugees thread in After Hours.

Danno wrote: »

Exactly, and I'd bet my bottom dollar that Evelyn takes her couple of foreign trips away to sunnier climes each year burning tons upon tons of fossil fuels jetting her butty to her desired destination. The whole "do as I say, not as I do" attitude is very rude. Ditto for that Ryan fellow who has his papers chauffeured to Dail Eireann whilst "seen to be doing the good thing by taking the bus" via taxpayers money is sickening to see.

Maybe you ought to take your bets to Vegas and stop taking pot shots at people unless you have PROOF. As for 'her butty' - what kind of a child are you?

Gaoth Laidir

So anyway, yeah, I reckon on average, this winter will be markedly colder than both last summer and next.

Rock Lesnar

I remember when this was a weather forum, they were good times, good times indeed

Danno

up for anything wrote: »

"“...stop taking pot shots at people unless you have PROOF...

I'm not taking pot shots at anyone, just alluding to the ways that those who lecture about climate change, advocate for huge expenses to be levied on everyone in the land and yet continue to live out a lifestyle that contradicts their lecturing. Apologies if it appeared as a direct pot shot at Evelyn Cusack.

There are plenty of people up and down the country who cannot afford to heat their homes sufficiently because of the taxes levied on fuel that are brought about by the government who have the ear of those lecturing about climate change. This kinda stuff pisses people off no end cause they see through it as yet another means for the government to siphon their hard earned cash.

giveitholly

This thread needs some weather

ferretr33

Can we get back to the weather weather please

JCX BXC

To be fair, we are talking about the weather on some edge, and as it's not winter yet it's not like there's current reports or anything to be had.

Anyway, I'm of the opinion of either join in the discussion or don't complain

Akrasia

Long range weather forecasting is a bit like trying to predict which sports team will win your competition of choice at the start of a long season

You can look at the team sheets and compare the players and managers against each other and think that the better team on paper will win more games on average than the team of young try hards

But then the matches are played and there are lucky goals, red cards, injuries, managers get sacked and teams get into a bad run of form, referees make mistakes, players score own goals, keepers drop the ball, playmakers hit a bad run of form, dressing room spats happen to disrupt the teams performance...

And all of a sudden you have Leicester City or Connacht coming from nowhere and winning the league.

All the experts who made their predictions at the start of the season all had good and justifiable reasons backed up with analysis and statistics, but sports, as well as weather are chaotic and predictions cannot account for the seemingly random events that can change the course of history.

JCX BXC

It's quite funny that Met Eireann say it's not possible to forecast beyond 10 days, when their UK counterparts UKMO forecast up to 30 days ahead.

nagdefy

up for anything wrote: »

"“God above is in charge of the weather and we here can’t do anything about it,” he told the Dáil during a debate on climate change on Wednesday."

I never got the hilarity which greeted that statement on the weather last year. It never meant more to me than we have no control over the weather, it's something beyond our control.

When people make comments on 'the supreme being', or karma and the universe, or universal energy like Reikki no one laughs at all!

Anyway off topic but it's not surprising that speaking of LRFs led us all in tangents. At any rate I hope it's a nice wintry winter:)

Oneiric 3

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I found the pressure analysis above to be interesting, I suspect it may have to do with background pressure variations in the atmosphere caused by interactions between the Sun and sources of gravitational energy. Although the curves look quite pronounced, Oneiric would probably agree that differences of 5 to 10 mb are not a large component of the overall variability (which is closer to 50-100 mb). So if this were the only factor at work, we would just see a slight uptick in storminess around those times of lower pressures.

I analyzed some pressure stats for Malin Head over a roughly similar period and found significant troughs (10-15 mb) around the times of new and full moons in December and January. This tendency fades out in February and March. Some time I might start a thread about some research I've done into the dynamics that might be causing those oscillations, but even 10-15 mb, while it may sound significant, is a rather small portion of the overall variability.

Indeed M.T, but keep in mind that the data I used is not only averaged over the period of 30 years, but also 'smoothed' out over a running period of 7 days, which I did, not only to mark out notable trends in the data, but also to make the graph more palatable to the eye. So the range in the case is not so important (if it can be deemed important to begin with!) as the general trends.

Oneiric 3

nagdefy wrote: »

I think it was on the TV3 night show that she was giggling away at Danny Healy Rae's climate views. We all know Danny HR doesn't have the most enlightened views on Climate Change and wouldn't be one for a scientific approach. Yet she came across as a rude know it all..

I wager though, that Danny Healy Rae has a far more enlightened view on the intricacies of people and society in general than Evelyn would have; after all, that is why he is doing what he is doing. I think when push comes to shove, he probably has done more to help out ordinary, everyday people who have to deal with real world problems than she ever has.

nagdefy

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I wager though, that Danny Healy Rae has a far more enlightened view on the intricacies of people and society in general than Evelyn would have; after all, that is why he is doing what he is doing.

I'd very much agree:D