the online poker craze

Neon_Lights

Dice75 wrote: »

Surely poker is 99% luck, 1% skill?

The luck comes from the random element of the game, not to say there is none, but over time a skillful player mitigates against randomness buy playing in a way which maximises expected value from playing. This is in essence the skill element, which could be construed as having anything from, good reads and correctly assessing/deciphering what your opponents have leading to a correct decision, or to making the mathematically correct decision in a given situation.

brady23

Neon_Lights wrote: »

The luck comes from the random element of the game, not to say there is none, but over time a skillful player mitigates against randomness buy playing in a way which maximises expected value from playing. This is in essence the skill element, which could be construed as having anything from, good reads and correctly assessing/deciphering what your opponents have leading to a correct decision, or to making the mathematically correct decision in a given situation.

Sounds like 99% luck to me

Blacktie.

brady23 wrote: »

Sounds like 99% luck to me

Then you don't understand the difference between luck and probability.

sbsquarepants

PARlance wrote: »

. It's too big of a business for any reputable company to do that, they have a licence to print money via the rake.

Deleted User wrote: »

Like, there is no way billion dollar companies are risking their entire business by rigging poker games where players just win of each other. They make more than enough from the rake.

Billion dollar companies simply wouldn't fiddle because they make enough money as it is?

Are you people really that naïve?

You've never heard of cartels, corporate fraud, organised crime, no? Have there not been dozens of cases of "reputable" global billion dollar companies, caught with their hands in the cookie jar before?
Greed is an actual thing you know, why would online poker be an island free from the allure of free money?

I don't profess to know the exact ins and outs of the multi billion dollar online poker industry. If I did, I'd be running a multi billion dollar online poker company......just like I presume you must do!

Deleted User wrote: »

. There's no need for him to understand and I like his posts.

Awh thanks, that's hardly condescending at all .

brady23

Blacktie. wrote: »

Then you don't understand the difference between luck and probability.

Can you break it down for those of us that don't understand?

Dice75

Dice75 wrote: »

Surely poker is 99% luck, 1% skill?

Nope. It's a common misunderstanding that the cards dealt determine who wins the hand but in reality, cards don't get shown in the majority of poker hands.

A large part of the game comes down to putting your opponents on hand ranges and your position on the table.

For example, if someone is first to act (and they're sober) after the deal and they raise with 7 people after them, you put usually put them on a certain range like maybe AQ-suited and up, or like 88s and up.
In later position where you will always act after them, you can call his raise with a weaker range like Q10-Off and up, lower suited connectors and any pocket pair.
There are mathematically proven hands where you should re-raise them and those percentages change for each position around to the big blind. What other people do in between determines how big your re-raise should be. Generally 3x + 1 big blind per caller.
Then the flop comes and you have a good idea of what the other person should be on, and they have a range on you. If the flop is a low board, it's almost certain to be out of his range whereas if it's high, it's more likely that he hit. etc. etc. etc.

Then there are all the implied odds and stuff that happens throughout the hand. There's just so much to it. My brother who's been a pro for years has graphs upon graphs memorised for this sort of stuff. It doesn't mean he'll necessarily win every night. It means that his edge plays out over time.

The best pros can make around 10 big blinds an hour.. Most around 5. So in a 1/2 game, you can only ever expect to make a max of around 20 euro an hour over a long period of time if you're a good winning player.


Edit: Another big thing is that there's often no perfect move in poker. So the newer breed of players who do GTO take a percentage-based approach to their move.
They often randomise by using their cards.. So if the card on the left is red, they might raise, if it's black, they check etc. Knowing these percentages is huge because if you always do the same thing, you leave exploitable holes in your game. That isn't saying that it's just a big crapshoot.. It's all worked out to be the optimal.

brady23 wrote: »

Can you break it down for those of us that don't understand?

You really don't know the difference?

danganabu

brady23 wrote: »

Can you break it down for those of us that don't understand?

Probability is a branch of mathematics that is capable of calculating the likelihood of an event taking place in percentage terms. Probability has a scientific basis.

Luck is just what it says and is a combination of circumstances that operate independently of each other to bring good or bad to a person.

Neon_Lights

brady23 wrote: »

Can you break it down for those of us that don't understand?

Baked bean head on ya!

B.A._Baracus

A lot of memories coming back reading this thread now.... God, I'm glad I don't play poker anymore.

Everyone is an bloody 'expert'....

whoopsadoodles

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

Used to work for Full Tilt in Cherrywood when the Feds decided to have a go at them for illegally offering online poker in the US, those were not fun times (they were before hand though, stupid excessive lunches / canteen / parties etc). Got out before the **** really got everywhere though.

Was at a few of those parties myself!

One of them they flew in a guy from Cuba to hand roll cigars for everyone at the event. Mad stuff!

Dr Turk Turkelton

Think everyone should stop replying to brady23 and Dice75 about how to play poker and calculate odds.
If they want to learn the intricacies of the game they can go and post in a poker forum somewhere to get advice.

super_furry

Preferred the offline games myself. It was great during the craze when there was a decent pub poker game on somewhere close by most nights of the week. There were some cowboys organising them initially but they got weeded out and the good organisers like JP Poker who now run the Irish Open, really succeeded.

Haven't played in a pub game in years now though, are they still running?

Jobs OXO

It's mad the way it all fell away

Hulk Hands

I used to play about 30 hours a week in college. Loved it at the start, got good stats and started being staked (sponsored) at smallish stakes which suited me as I couldn't afford to risk losing runs at the time. That took so much work to build up the volume however, 16 tables at once on a smaal laptop etc. I fell out of love with it eventually.

Now its a waste of time. All the easy money has dried up and grinders are all thats left. Makes no sense playing when so beating the books on sports betting has become so much easier.

BillyBobBS wrote: »

Gambling is for mugs.

A nice quote. Doesn't explain why bookies are closing and restricting accounts by the hundreds daily though

B.A._Baracus

super_furry wrote: »

Preferred the offline games myself. It was great during the craze when there was a decent pub poker game on somewhere close by most nights of the week. There were some cowboys organising them initially but they got weeded out and the good organisers like JP Poker who now run the Irish Open, really succeeded.

Haven't played in a pub game in years now though, are they still running?

A lot of the pub poker games have gone. Still a few around tho. But no where near to the level of what it was.

I'm surprised they lasted as long as they did... Wasn't no secret that it was an illegal nixer taking place lol.

Burial.

Played a tonne back in the golden era. I was too young to have my own bank account so stole my brothers details and after he clobbered me for taking his bank card I ended up giving him a few hundred every now and again for his 'services'. Back then you'd have retired American men and old housewives who didn't know the concept of odds let alone proper strategy while you'd have Russians literally wanting you to take their money. Honestly was printing money for so long. Before I started college I'd enough money won to pay the entire expenses for the four years and then some.

It's amazing how tough games have gotten online although a second boom is about to begin in the next year or so I think. Asian markets are buzzing and even American poker is slowly making a comeback with some states being legalised again and TV poker becoming more prominent. I still play pretty regularly on Pokerstars although they're slowly killing the games with their rakeback. Bots on ipoker skins like Paddy Power and Bet365 have dried those games up too which were goldmine for degenerate fish crossing over from the sportsbook. Software is getting very advanced too to help people and in ten years games might actually become fully solved. If I knew what I know now back in the good ol days I have no doubt I'd have made at least a million euro. Such is how much the games have advanced.

Live poker is still ridiculous soft. I often wander into the Macau in Cork after a night out absolutely goosed and would usually end up with a fat wallet. Went to Vegas this summer to catch the end of the world series as well which was a great experience.

For anyone that says online poker is rigged or complete luck, I offer you a seat next to me at a live game any day of the week.

Neon_Lights

Burial. wrote: »

For anyone that says online poker is rigged or complete luck, I offer you a seat next to me at a live game any day of the week.

Just to make a point, it is in online poker companies interest to maximise Rake and I think their card dealing algorithms are biased towards doing this.

As for a live game, I'd tell the dealer to wash the cards of they weren't being shuffled correctly but its definitely more random than online without a doubt imho

timthumbni

Neon_Lights wrote: »

Just to make a point, it is in online poker companies interest to maximise Rake and I think their card dealing algorithms are biased towards doing this.

As for a live game, I'd tell the dealer to wash the cards of they weren't being shuffled correctly but its definitely more random than online without a doubt imho

What does wash the cards mean??? Reshuffle????

4068ac1elhodqr

Hulk Hands wrote: »

A nice quote. Doesn't explain why bookies are closing and restricting accounts by the hundreds daily though

They don't close accounts of 'poker only' accounts, nor bingo or casino(lol) players.

You're talking about folks to pull in regular and decent sports wins (i.e. in the actual real world) usually that's racing, football, gaa, us-sports or any other 'actual events'.

I wouldn't ever touch anything in the 'virtual space'. Unless you can supply me the actual source code of the (3rd party) servers and software running these. Which you would be unable to.

You can 'probably' well 'assume' that they may well contain plenty of additional variables, functions, and not just this singular method to deal the next card:

Math.floor((Math.random() * 52) + 1);

messinkiapina

Back in the good old days of online poker when nobody knew what they were doing, you could read a couple of books, play a very abc style, and make half decent money. Since about 2010 you actually have to be reasonably skillful to beat even the smallest stakes. That's about the time I had the good sense to pack it in!

messinkiapina

... Double post

Neon_Lights

timthumbni wrote: »

What does wash the cards mean??? Reshuffle????

So say right you have a stacked deck that's primarily kept intact for dealing a subsequent hand, those cards are in some way predictable..

You'd politely ask the dealer to wash the cards if that's the case. Most do anyway, they spread out all 52 on the table and mix them around. That's washing the cards.

wally1990

Burial. wrote: »

Played a tonne back in the golden era. I was too young to have my own bank account so stole my brothers details and after he clobbered me for taking his bank card I ended up giving him a few hundred every now and again for his 'services'. Back then you'd have retired American men and old housewives who didn't know the concept of odds let alone proper strategy while you'd have Russians literally wanting you to take their money. Honestly was printing money for so long. Before I started college I'd enough money won to pay the entire expenses for the four years and then some.

It's amazing how tough games have gotten online although a second boom is about to begin in the next year or so I think. Asian markets are buzzing and even American poker is slowly making a comeback with some states being legalised again and TV poker becoming more prominent. I still play pretty regularly on Pokerstars although they're slowly killing the games with their rakeback. Bots on ipoker skins like Paddy Power and Bet365 have dried those games up too which were goldmine for degenerate fish crossing over from the sportsbook. Software is getting very advanced too to help people and in ten years games might actually become fully solved. If I knew what I know now back in the good ol days I have no doubt I'd have made at least a million euro. Such is how much the games have advanced.

Live poker is still ridiculous soft. I often wander into the Macau in Cork after a night out absolutely goosed and would usually end up with a fat wallet. Went to Vegas this summer to catch the end of the world series as well which was a great experience.

For anyone that says online poker is rigged or complete luck, I offer you a seat next to me at a live game any day of the week.

As joey would say ,

GTO my friend

jooksavage

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

Used to work for Full Tilt in Cherrywood when the Feds decided to have a go at them for illegally offering online poker in the US, those were not fun times (they were before hand though, stupid excessive lunches / canteen / parties etc). Got out before the **** really got everywhere though.

I hung on for a while. Too long. It was depressing as hell there from 2012 onwards.

wally1990

jooksavage wrote: »

I hung on for a while. Too long. It was depressing as hell there from 2012 onwards.

Stories ????

jooksavage

wally1990 wrote: »

Stories ????

Well for starters the shark fillets, guinnea fowl and kobe beefburgers for lunch were a thing of the past.

bucketybuck

Somebody earlier said that there would be another poker boom, but there won't be, it just ain't happening.

Any new player interested in poker has a serious amount of information about the game available from a simple Google search, within minutes they can read a basic strategy guide that will steer them away from making basic mistakes, the sort of basic mistakes that sharks were pouncing on back in the day.

The vast majority of players know the basic strategies perfectly well, and anybody that doesn't know them or doesn't have the discipline to use them is getting swallowed up almost immediately. That drunk guy betting every hand, the type of player that used to pay you off? Now he is sitting at a table with 8 players playing ABC poker and all waiting their turn to bust him. If he doesn't lose his money within the hour he still leaves the game because its boring as ****.

Hulk Hands

bucketybuck wrote: »

Somebody earlier said that there would be another poker boom, but there won't be, it just ain't happening.

Any new player interested in poker has a serious amount of information about the game available from a simple Google search, within minutes they can read a basic strategy guide that will steer them away from making basic mistakes, the sort of basic mistakes that sharks were pouncing on back in the day.

The vast majority of players know the basic strategies perfectly well, and anybody that doesn't know them or doesn't have the discipline to use them is getting swallowed up almost immediately. That drunk guy betting every hand, the type of player that used to pay you off? Now he is sitting at a table with 8 players playing ABC poker and all waiting their turn to bust him. If he doesn't lose his money within the hour he still leaves the game because its boring as ****.

Agree completely. The games gone. I played the Irish Open last year and thought it was very cute the current online lads trying to massage their ego's, chatting loudly to each other about exchanging hand histories for study, and the 70 hour weeks they were putting in. Most of them were making fcuk all, if they had any semblance of brains they'd have gone into the sports betting sphere and be making far easier cash for far less work.

Journee Blue Barbershop wrote: »

They don't close accounts of 'poker only' accounts, nor bingo or casino(lol) players.

You're talking about folks to pull in regular and decent sports wins (i.e. in the actual real world) usually that's racing, football, gaa, us-sports or any other 'actual events'.

Yes. He said gambling as a whole is a mugs game. Sport betting is a form of gambling.

You really need to stop popping into every single gambling related thread on the site talking gibberish. It's incredibly annoying

4068ac1elhodqr

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Yes. He said gambling as a whole is a mugs game. Sport betting is a form of gambling.

You really need to stop popping into every single gambling related thread on the site talking gibberish. It's incredibly annoying

You were directly referring to poker, and suggested poker accounts get restricted, which is gibberish fantasy tomfoolery.

Likewise maybe you really should stick to your specialty, which from memory is probably just gaa-galway-bogsports.

I've a great knowledge and indeed a fan of all (real-world) betting events, particularly novelties and mixed accumulators (unlike yourself with unhelpful, un-requested back seat moderating).

Back on topic, would suggest anyone avoids online poker, as explained.

Lets face it, real-world events are more transparent. Even with the upcoming CMcG bout, there is still chance either could win. The winner won't be choosen by a RNG machine running random(); and possibly a few other scripts.

Jesus Wept

ONline is totally fixed

jooksavage

Although I didn't work much on the client side of things at FTP, I believe they had in place some fairly sophisticated fraud detection systems and were spending a hell of time and money maintaining and improving them. While obviously the actions of Bitar, Lederer etc. brought the company itself into disrepute, most of the developers thought the "this is fixed" stuff on the likes of pokerscout was complete nonsense.

TheDoc

I still play, havn't stopped.

Learned how to play Texas Hold em in college and it was just in time for the boom, was going all over the places as it seemed every second pub or GAA club had a tournament through the week. Turned out I was pretty good at it Crazy how it died off so fast. I still drop into a few places that run them from time to time.

I prefer live games then online, but online has been a nice little time sink and its a decent shout to make a few €€ for a few hours work. I'm one of those with multiple tables open on screen at once. I find it shockingly easy until I move to certain stakes where it gets a bit more difficult, but I tend to just keep low stake, multiple tables which is where I find I make my best winnings.

Mr. CooL ICE

jooksavage wrote: »

Although I didn't work much on the client side of things at FTP, I believe they had in place some fairly sophisticated fraud detection systems and were spending a hell of time and money maintaining and improving them. While obviously the actions of Bitar, Lederer etc. brought the company itself into disrepute, most of the developers thought the "this is fixed" stuff on the likes of pokerscout was complete nonsense.

For things like tournaments, anybody who placed near the top (e.g. final table, not sure) couldn't immediately withdraw their winnings. There was a fraud team who would go through their tournament hand histories to ensure no collusion took place. They had software to detect things like dodgy folds/raises, patterns and had to take each hand at it's own merit. If cheaters were caught, their winnings were redistributed to the rest of the tournament winners rather than seized by the company.

893bet

Dice75 wrote: »

Surely poker is 99% luck, 1% skill?

On a single night/game the about is probably accurate. A poor player will hit their hands again and again against the odds.

Over a longer period the odds will even out and it will be is 99% skill and 1% luck.

Wombatman

Deleted User wrote: »

For example, if someone is first to act (and they're sober) after the deal and they raise with 7 people after them, you put usually put them on a certain range like maybe AQ-suited and up, or like 88s and up.
In later position where you will always act after them, you can call his raise with a weaker range like Q10-Off and up, lower suited connectors and any pocket pair.

Calling tighter ranges with wider ranges sounds like a solid strategy alright :rolleyes:

Neon_Lights

Wombatman wrote: »

Calling tighter ranges with wider ranges sounds like a solid strategy alright :rolleyes:

I don't think its a terrible flat in position, however you don't get much information. If you were to play a small three bet would be more preferable, followed by a 4bet fold. This is obviously depending on the opponent.

bucketybuck

Wombatman wrote: »

Calling tighter ranges with wider ranges sounds like a solid strategy alright :rolleyes:

I made buckets of money using that LAG strategy, its perfectly viable when playing against lower level players so I don't know why you are rolling your eyes.

Weak player raises, you call with a hand he can't guess, then if it hits you bleed him dry because you are in position against a guy who can't see whats beating him and can't lay down his top pair.

In the early days thats were the real money was, not scratching about playing smallball.

diomed

I don't go well online. Bur then I don't go well live either.
You need to be very accepting of the bad luck that sometimes happens.

Last week I was going well in an online tournament but
my KK v QQ all-in lost when the board went KT4 AJ
followed a short time later by my QQ v 99 all-in when the board went 456 78.

You need the skin of a rhino.
You tend to forget the many times you ran lucky, and you do.

Horses are my real love.

Wombatman

Wombatman wrote: »

Calling tighter ranges with wider ranges sounds like a solid strategy alright :rolleyes:

Well it is. Even intuitively with not much knowledge of poker, it makes perfect sense.

Wombatman

Deleted User wrote: »

Well it is. Even intuitively with not much knowledge of poker, it makes perfect sense.

So you are knowingly a two to one dog pre with possible action behind. What is the next step pray tell?

Let me guess..... outplay them post flop?

893bet

Wombatman wrote: »

So you are knowingly a two to one dog pre with possible action behind. What is the next step pray tell?

Let me guess..... outplay them post flop?

Yup. Tight player misses flop. Bets or checks... you float....and take it on the turn or river.

At this point position is assumed.

Rumpy Pumpy

Wombatman wrote: »

So you are knowingly a two to one dog pre with possible action behind. What is the next step pray tell?

Let me guess..... outplay them post flop?

893bet wrote: »

Yup. Tight player misses flop. Bets or checks... you float....and take it on the turn or river.

At this point position is assumed.

Watch out dudes, we have serious sharks in town.

Wombatman

Wombatman wrote: »

So you are knowingly a two to one dog pre with possible action behind. What is the next step pray tell?

Let me guess..... outplay them post flop?

Yeah. This is a useless conversation because it's obvious you have absolutely no idea how poker is played, except for maybe some homegames where everyone gets to turn their cards over.

eeguy

Jesus Wept wrote: »

ONline is totally fixed

My problem with online is you don't know who you're playing.

When its 11pm and you've had a few drinks are you playing some guy in a 3pm time zone. It's 12.12 where I am in the US. If I log into an Irish poker room I'm bound to be up against lads playing at 5.12am after Friday night drinks.
Are the players on your table all sitting in a room together somewhere teaming against you.
Are you playing against someone with an odds calculator.
Are you playing against someone who has a way of gaming the system.

Who knows. The online aspect of it is also unnerving. I heard a great podcast from an engineer who built virtual casino games that were programmed to win more times than not.
One of these games had a double or nothing feature based on the optional flip of a virtual coin. The system already knew which way the coin would fall, even before you decided to take the chance of the coin toss.

Dice75

Jesus Wept wrote: »

ONline is totally fixed

eeguy wrote: »

My problem with online is you don't know who you're playing.

When its 11pm and you've had a few drinks are you playing some guy in a 3pm time zone. It's 12.12 where I am in the US. If I log into an Irish poker room I'm bound to be up against lads playing at 5.12am after Friday night drinks.
Are the players on your table all sitting in a room together somewhere teaming against you.
Are you playing against someone with an odds calculator.
Are you playing against someone who has a way of gaming the system.

Who knows. The online aspect of it is also unnerving. I heard a great podcast from an engineer who built virtual casino games that were programmed to win more times than not.
One of these games had a double or nothing feature based on the optional flip of a virtual coin. The system already knew which way the coin would fall, even before you decided to take the chance of the coin toss.

I think he's referring to the fact the computer dealer is dealing from the bottom of the deck...

But i suppose if you have to point out the joke its a bit pointless....

The mans work will only truely be recognised long after he is gone.

rekluse

Poker actually has had a huge impact on my life, was working a ****ty job and just grinding online / live back home in the mid naughties, won a live tournament for a few hundred but also a ticket for a 300 euro live event. Managed to bink 3rd in that for almost 5k. Quit my job and moved to Barcelona, completed a CELTA there and then travelled Asia for 4 years teaching English. Some of the best years of my life. Haven't really played much since, but will always have a love for the game.

pickarooney

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

Used to work for Full Tilt in Cherrywood when the Feds decided to have a go at them for illegally offering online poker in the US, those were not fun times (they were before hand though, stupid excessive lunches / canteen / parties etc). Got out before the **** really got everywhere though.

I could never understand why, in America of all places, gambling was banned. Except in a couple of states, which makes even less sense to me.

Neon_Lights

pickarooney wrote: »

I could never understand why, in America of all places, gambling was banned. Except in a couple of states, which makes even less sense to me.

Online wasn't properly taxed like physical casinos and the government got a tad ticked off. Same auld story really.

Mr. CooL ICE

pickarooney wrote: »

I could never understand why, in America of all places, gambling was banned. Except in a couple of states, which makes even less sense to me.

Land of the free!

Like Neon pointed out, it was down to taxes. There were massive amounts of money coming in and out of the country through an online game and the government had no control over it.

Neon_Lights

Nicolas Cage wrote: »

Land of the free!

Like Neon pointed out, it was down to taxes. There were massive amounts of money coming in and out of the country through an online game and the government had no control over it.

As a side note I predict similar will happen to bitcoin if the government get ticked off its "too decentralised"... Yet we cannot say the government is to inefficient or wasteful, the gold standard has been replaced by the double standard, thank you Richard Nixon