Why would anyone give away good tips.

mayoman1973

If anyone wants to see some real ££ making tips start following this twitter account.  https://twitter.com/puntersheaven No point in talking about % profit to date as no way to prove the numbers weren't fudged. But % profit is substantial.  So here's starting pasting the tips in the public domain for all to see,  3 days in,  good profit so far but 20 bets does not a Summer make. Will post number of bets made plus rolling % profit/loss on the forum here for all to see on a daily basis.  If you want to verify bets and prices do actually exist and predictions are made pre race then I invite you to simply follow on twitter.  Why give tips away for free?  Call this a thank a way of giving back to the community because it was through reading this and that on Boards.ie forum that the whole system was developed. Well of course you are thinking this is just another lucky streak some dude is on and will fizzle out.  Nope.  I have 11,000 records,  over half backed with ££ and profits are consistent. I make more than enough to enjoy the finer things in life from this "Mugs game". Also satisfyinig to know that without a masters degree in maths that money can be made from just looking at numbers, but in the right way.  Take a look,  nothing to lose.     https://twitter.com/puntersheaven

mayoman1973

8 tips so far today

mayoman1973

PS,  As outlined on the twitter page you will need accounts with 3 or 4 of the big books to get the listed tip price.  And in this game,  price is everything. But ... If price not available when horse assessed then tip is not tweeted

mayoman1973

Right folks,  dont say I didn't warn ye ....  Results are in,  all can be verified on our twitter page. Just check time stamp.
Because Level Stakes Profit ( LSP ) is THE ONLY metric to use when determining if a selection/tip list is profitable so here goes.  2pts per bet,  ie 1pt on win, 1pt on place
First 2 days of live tweets, 23rd and 24th Aug, 16 selections, 32 pts staked(2pts per horse), +26pts,

25th Aug,  20 selections, 40 pts staked, +24pts

Running totals
36 selections, 72 pts staked, Bank = +50pts.   This is higher than the expected profit based on my statistical calculations by a factor of 2.5 so no way this can continue.  Expect a correction in next few days.
If you think these numbers are fudged then at least go verify the tips as we post them.  72 selections is a meaningless figure give the size of the odds we mainly work with. We have 1000s done with similar results which I will not waste time showing as these obviously cannot be proofed. Bookies had their backsides stuck out the window today and got them slapped.  If you want to fill your boots then follow us on twitter.  Again,  nothing out of this for me.  Doing it as a thank you to the internet community and as a sort of good deed for the day. I put plenty on these before I post them so my nest is well feathered.

mayoman1973

Results. Saturday another big day.  21 bets, 2 big 15.0 and 26.0 winners and few placers.
41pts staked for return of 72pts, ie +31pts, 
ALL tips are verifiable on Twitter. 
Running totals:
57  selections, 114 pts staked, Bank = +81pts.
For the mathematically challenged that translates to stake of £1140 using £10 ew stakes  for profit of £810 after just 4 days!!
If there is anyone in here that can show even half this profit please let me know ....
5 days now I think,  of course you don't put money on some dudes tips that you have never heard of so go and paper trade them first to satisfy yourself.  As the saying goes ,  you can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink. This is as close to reading tomorrows Racing post today as you will ever get.

mayoman1973

Sunday has been first losing day, 2 tips,  just 1 placer
4pts staked, returned 3pts,  profit -1pt
Running totals:
59  selections, 118 pts staked, Bank = +80pts.

mayoman1973

Normal service resumed.
16pts staked, returned 22.5pts,  profit 6.5 pts
Running totals:
67  selections, 134 pts staked, Bank = +86.5pts.   ie 64% profit .... Way ahead of my statistical calculations and miles ahead of any tipping service any of you are paying for..... All tips free,  all tips easily verified.

Gregk961

Looks like a lot of selections do you always bet in such volume? I have zero interest in following somebody elses bets by the way I'm just curious. 67 selections in a few days, thats a couple of months worth of punting for me.

No offence but there is something stomach churning about the way you put yourself across-"As close to reading tomorrows racing post as you'll get" That type of sh1t makes me want to vomit and immediately sends alarm bells ringing that you're either rearing up to start charging people or just a bit of a knob.

If you want to get a following on your site just say as much and cut out the "giving back to the internet" bollocks that nobody buys.

mayoman1973

Actually 67 tips over 5 days is relatively quiet.  Have 11,000 documented so far in just shy of 18 mths. Avg of 20 per day. As no one can verify these that is why I won't bother showing the results. Only concerned with what I have put in the public domain since setting up my twitter feed. Making more money than I have ever dreamed possible.  See them 67 ponies over past 5 days.  They all have as much money as Mr Bookie will allow me and my "friends" to put on so some token subscriptions that I would collect from punters pales in comparison. £100 e/w and upwards is my standard stake. Do the maths on that with 20 per day, and 25% profit over past 6 mths. 64% profit on twitter so far,  but as I said this is far ahead of my calculations based on the true prices I assigned to selections. This will without question converge downwards towards 20 to 30% mark. Back to why I want to give them away.  Why not?  Not costing me anything and I have my money made before anyone sees these. Call it an ego thing but my aim is to have people hanging on my every word because there is no service paid or other wise comes even close to these numbers.  As I said,  no one needs to bother their arses looking at these tips ( I don't bother myself with any tipsters because anytime I did their results never stacked up )  As for giving back to the internet.  I work as a software engineer and actually make a point of answering questions in my own time for people on different IT forums with no monetary reward. Money is not everything.

mayoman1973

Post duplicated

4068ac1elhodqr

Guess there's no harm in doing so many, only comment would be that your delivery lacks a little bit of 'finesse'. I.e. Use the return button to create paragraphs on blogs. Also the Tw header image hurts the eyes somewhat. Once (if) you ever use Aff' links, no doubt any gained interested parties will wain as plenty of other folks/places also offer free services/data without any click-through requirement.

Separately, good to see you understand the 'sham/scam' of these new virtual environments. How anyone with any hint of intelligence can become dependent on something like FOBT's that run at 97.2% is a mystery to me.

Not a huge fan, nor with highly detailed knowledge of the horses, but am happy on rare occasional days to crunch through what can be called 'very big data, price vectoring, trending and other tools or techniques' to build 'maxamised risk-reduced e/w accumulator arrays'.

E.g. Picked the winner of the Ebor on Saturday, from a very random irrelevant source, with very precise relevant data.
Data is data no matter where it comes from, thus any/all data should be evaluated and processed before discarding.

BorneTobyWilde

How can one follow when randomly you put up a tip at some point during the day. How could anyone keep up with the volume.
Follow 6 losers and miss the 25-1 winner.
How does one keep up ?

BorneTobyWilde

Making a fortune on paper is easy. Getting it done in reality is hard.

BorneTobyWilde

Have you ever backed 3 in a race rather than one is 3 races. On paper backing 3 in a race I can get winners on paper easily, 12 in a row is record for me, on paper !
I could pick races, based on trip, size of field, and prices, and invest 3pts per race, 1 pt on 3 different horse in race, if any win it would return more than 3pts as horses I pick would be 4-1 and higher.
I can make a fortune on paper doing that, fields of 10 max , flat racing, trips of 1m2 tops.
If 10 in field and I have 3 covered I have a 3.33% chance of having winner, If I eliminate
2 in race that have no hope, according to my reading of race that gives me a 2.6% chance of having winner. And If I back prices of 7-1 5-1 9-1 I gain pts regardless of fact I throw 2pts away every race.
I have page and page of profit doing this. I could make 40pts a day, and yes have a random day that everything goes wrong and lose -6pts, but that would still be 34 pts over 2 days . Over a weeks pts profit would be in 100's

qhe0i9zvfgdou8

BorneTobyWilde wrote:

Have you ever backed 3 in a race rather than one is 3 races. On paper backing 3 in a race I can get winners on paper easily, 12 in a row is record for me, on paper ! I could pick races, based on trip, size of field, and prices, and invest 3pts per race, 1 pt on 3 different horse in race, if any win it would return more than 3pts as horses I pick would be 4-1 and higher. I can make a fortune on paper doing that, fields of 10 max , flat racing, trips of 1m2 tops. If 10 in field and I have 3 covered I have a 3.33% chance of having winner, If I eliminate 2 in race that have no hope, according to my reading of race that gives me a 2.6% chance of having winner. And If I back prices of 7-1 5-1 9-1 I gain pts regardless of fact I throw 2pts away every race. I have page and page of profit doing this. I could make 40pts a day, and yes have a random day that everything goes wrong and lose -6pts, but that would still be 34 pts over 2 days . Over a weeks pts profit would be in 100's

Why aren't you doing it if you don't mind me asking?

BorneTobyWilde

Guadalupe Flabby Rag wrote: »

Why aren't you doing it if you don't mind me asking?

Time I guess. And fact it's easier to gamble on paper, easier to keep going as you have endless funds on paper, and you have no risk.
It makes sense though, if one was to back all 10 horses in a race he'd win, backing 3 picks based on form price and personal preference gives one a great strike rate. Much better than backing 1 horse in 3 different races, it's still 3 pts invested, I'd rather invest all 3pts in one race with a field of 7-10 runners.

mayoman1973

True, betting on paper is easier. That was me till I proved the system.  But now its time to pay the piper and its £££ all the way. As much of it as they will allow. You mentioned more than one horse in a race.  I actually made a point of stating this when I posted a tip that I had almost posted every horse in that race.  7 or 8 in fact out of a field of 14.  Got the 11.0 winner along with 26.0 placer so good profit. Was an odds on fav in that race as well that obviously was not one of my tips. In simple terms my system can tell if a given horse is there to walk about the parade ring or to race. I monitor exchange markets ( Markets which attract mostly smart money ) which make this pretty obvious. Hint: The win market is NOT one of these markets.  When you get a fav that is there just to stretch his legs and start to see some outsiders that indicate they are there to race then this is the perfect storm. Won't get it right all the time but you only need to be right more often than you are wrong.

Stevecw

Saw this thread today and decided to try a few fiver each ways he tipped on twitter. Not one of them has come in so far. Lost 30 quid on 3 bets, then just watched the next ones, none of them came in!

Gregk961

Stevecw wrote: »

Saw this thread today and decided to try a few fiver each ways he tipped on twitter. Not one of them has come in so far. Lost 30 quid on 3 bets, then just watched the next ones, none of them came in!

In fairness it would be unwise to judge a gambler based on 1 day of action. Id be more concerned about it being impossible to follow all the advised bets due to the volume and this business of backing multiple horses in the same race will get you limited even quicker than usual.

Most books will limit you based on your betting patterns rather than your profit and loss, this means you could end up with hundreds invested following a "system" and then find yourself unable to follow it any further after getting limited to a 5ew. Im not completely rubbishing the OPs claims but that kind of betting is unsustainable as far as im aware.

Again, the "Guaranteed £££" screams charlatan or else the cries of somebody desperate for attention.

mayoman1973

Today  6 selections , 12 pts staked, returns -12pts

Running totals:
72  selections, 144 pts staked, Bank = +74.5pts.   ie 50% profit .... Still way ahead of my statistical calculations and expect more correction in form of losing days.

To a previous poster.  As I stated in an earlier post.  I was not getting excited by 60 or 70% profit after 50 or 60 bets as this will be whittled away when the bad days come. And neither do I get bothered by 6 straight losers. Results will always converge towards a definitive percentage. That percentage is a lot less than current returns of 50% and a lot more than 0%.  My advice to you would be to sit back and monitor. I will post daily returns till we get to around 1000 bets.  Then and only then can you say something works or doesn't.   @gregk961 ; Agree, multiple bets on same race  with same bookie will get you limited quick time.  This is where friends can come in useful.  Advantage of lot of selections is it allows for doubles , trebles.  Hold on you say. Doubles only favor the bookie they say !!! That is correct only if you have negative value in both legs.  Then the negative value is compounded in the bookies favor.  eg 1.90 x 1.90 in both legs where true price is 2.0 in both cases is -10% value per leg. In a double this gives you odds of 3.61 instead of 4.0, ie But ... if you have positive value in both legs of a double then the positive value is compounded in your favor.  eg 2.10 x 2.10 where true odds are again 2.0 in each leg, gives you 4.41 instead of 4.0.  So to stay under the radar I throw on plenty of doubles, trebles, etc

mayoman1973

Today  25 selections , 50 pts staked, returns -10pts

Running totals:
97  selections, 194 pts staked, Bank = +64.5pts.   33% profit

gillamandango

20 Selections per day at 100 a point = Betting account closed very quickly win or lose..Trying to bet cash on this type of system is impossible. The fact that you are this far in with 97 bets, close to 20 large invested and your still able to get 100 e/w on makes me dubious to your claims of wagering (not your results)..Good luck though

mayoman1973

£100 per pt but who said all monies go with the one bookie.  With help of 14 friends at the moment, very easy to spread the love across between 150 and 200 accounts.  True,  anyone who tells you they are putting large bets on with a bookie is either a losing gambler or talking ****.  You have to be inventive and view this as an exercise of having an army of 100 mice stealing 1 grain of wheat each from 20 different farmers rather than just going to the one farmer and taking a whole bag of wheat. Each horse will take 10 to 15 min of my time to get the monies spread out.  Not a big deal.  Friends of course benefit with a monthly dividend and every one is happy.

pearcider

Good day today mayo man! Particularly impressed with the Nemean Lion and Hurricane Rock double. Keep up the good work. You must be very good at reading the form. Do you always let your bets run or do you trade the market? You seem to be on the right side of the prices most of the time so well done again.

mayoman1973

Cheers pearcider. Yea,  one of the better days. Swings both ways.  I'd be lying if I said I was any good at reading form. I leave that to the experts.  I just analyse several markets ( not the win markets ) on betfair which are pretty good indicators that there will be a downward movement in a horses price.  I use software to pull the data from the exchange so would be impossible to do it manually.

Anyways the results for the day keep things going the right way but again 116 swallows does not a profit make !!

Today  19 selections , 38 pts staked, returns +59pts,  ( No rule 4 reductions as far as I can see from my own ££ returns )

Running totals:
116  selections, 232 pts staked, Bank = +123pts.   53% profit

I find it amusing to read a previous poster say that a system which throws up 20 or more selections per day is not viable..... Are you serious? Perhaps someone should point out what makes a profitable system as I want to throw this one in the bin and go back to 2 per day.  Is one which generates max of 4 selections per day more viable perhaps.  Newsflash, 4 is smaller than 20.  Just pick the first 4 I throw up each day and close your eyes for the rest of them.  If you think that way is any more or less profitable than doing them all then I would strongly advise you to give up betting as a hobby ( I would sincerely hope you don't entertain any thoughts of betting for a living )

mayoman1973

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Have you ever backed 3 in a race rather than one is 3 races. On paper backing 3 in a race I can get winners on paper easily, 12 in a row is record for me, on paper !
I could pick races, based on trip, size of field, and prices, and invest 3pts per race, 1 pt on 3 different horse in race, if any win it would return more than 3pts as horses I pick would be 4-1 and higher.
I can make a fortune on paper doing that, fields of 10 max , flat racing, trips of 1m2 tops.
If 10 in field and I have 3 covered I have a 3.33% chance of having winner, If I eliminate
2 in race that have no hope, according to my reading of race that gives me a 2.6% chance of having winner. And If I back prices of 7-1 5-1 9-1 I gain pts regardless of fact I throw 2pts away every race.
I have page and page of profit doing this. I could make 40pts a day, and yes have a random day that everything goes wrong and lose -6pts, but that would still be 34 pts over 2 days . Over a weeks pts profit would be in 100's

I would love to see even your Paper bets documented in a public forum such as this or twitter. Obviously posted prior to any race so I can put them side by side with mine and see where I am going wrong.  You post of a fictional system has already got one thank you while the only posts related to my system that have got any thank yous are ones indicating it doesn't work.  Strange world we live in

mayoman1973

I would also love to see the definition of a horse that "Has no hope"  Perhaps I can add this to my selection criteria.  In my book if a horse has 4 legs,  has a price beside his name then you had better believe he has a chance !!!

Lickin2me

Scam scam

mayoman1973

@lickin2me Please yourself.  As I said from start the picks are on twitter for you to proof or otherwise as you see fit.  How I pick the horses is far more complex than some one like yourself could ever grasp so I won't expand on it any further. The best that you can come up with is "scam" lol.

eric hoone

I think you're being generous with the tips and transparent mayoman, admitting you're no reader of the form just the markets. Fair play and good luck with it, wish I'd followed your system today anyway!

mayoman1973

Yea, Not sure how much more transparent I can be to be honest. And the Scam bit I'm not sure about either.  I'm trying to scam people into doing something it must be. People talk about there being no such thing as a free lunch.  I maintain if you had a spare lunch you couldnt give it away and that is becoming apparent. Will push onwards to the 1000 bet mark. Who ever wants to follow can if they like

mayoman1973

Right folks, one of the Admin guys has asked me to post the tips on this thread instead of or in addition to twitter. I used twitter as it was easier to use on a phone.
Anyways, will do a clean start on this thread. Forgetting about the other 100 and something ones on twitter. Had well above average start with them so the true measure of a system is how it can get into a profit from a spluttery start. Here's hoping a few minus % days at the start.
Watch this space. If I happen to be out running across the sperrins when the software beeps me then that tip will most likely only make it to twitter. Also, as these are horses which are about to start moving downwards ( I hope ) there is no point in thinking you can drive into town, get a side of bacon for the dinner and then pop into the bookies and put a bet on. The price has a half life of about 5 min in most cases. That is plenty of time to at least check the price is available so you can paper trade it or do a small 50p bet. In short, if you havn't the patience to monitor a betting system and try to turn £10 into £20 using nothing more than 25p bets then betting is not for you. Period. A previous poster hit some tips with £5 ew without having seen anymore than 50 tips posted. Of course he hit the one -100% day I had. Are you serious !!! You can't open the wallet based on what some clown on the net tells you just cause the first 50 tips looked ok. Of course he abandoned ship straight after that and missed yesterday. As for scam dude. If I have the patience to keep posting for 1000 tips I will await your assessment of the results at that stage. I most likely will because like everything in this game, its all about sticking at something till you prove or disprove it.

mayoman1973

Bangor 14:00 Anton Dolin Ladbrokes @ 8.50

mayoman1973

bet vic has Anton Dolin one too, and has kindly allowed some friends to take him at that price

mayoman1973

Again ... for the love of God .... Don't be putting money ( Anything more than 50p ) on these nags till we at least hit 200 or 300 tips.

vandriver

Following

mayoman1973

Down Royal
01.09.2017
19:40 Dawn Shadow @ 7.00

mayoman1973

Anton dolin is available on BetBright at 9.0 but because I consider BetBright/Sporting Bet and other similar small books as nothing more than joke bookies I don't offer these prices as tips. If you do have one of these accounts and you are taking these prices then expect to be shown the door sooner rather than later

mayoman1973

Down Royal
01.09.2017
17:40 Ardview Boy @ 13.00

mayoman1973

Down Royal
01.09.2017
18:10 Mountain Rock bet365 @ 3.75

hots

Looks like you're doing really well MM, can I ask why the 1pt/1pt on every selection? I'm following a paid-for tipster (I was 100% sure it was a stupid thing to do but it's working) and he would vary stakes based on confidence which is pretty common afaik.

mayoman1973

Reason for using level staking is simple really.  If your selections don't return a profit to level stakes then there is no staking plan that can make that system work. And it is also a lot easier to track profit/loss. I don't use level stakes myself as my stats show that there is more value in the bet the higher the odds so I stake accordingly.  But for the purposes of showing that a system works or is for the bin level stakes is THE ONLY staking mechanism that can prove a systems worth.  I have over 11,000 bets that show this to be the case.

hots

mayoman1973 wrote: »

Reason for using level staking is simple really. If your selections don't return a profit to level stakes then there is no staking plan that can make that system work. And it is also a lot easier to track profit/loss. I don't use level stakes myself as my stats show that there is more value in the bet the higher the odds so I stake accordingly. But for the purposes of showing that a system works or is for the bin level stakes is THE ONLY staking mechanism that can prove a systems worth. I have over 11,000 bets that show this to be the case.

I get you, " the system " being your way of finding winners I take it?

I have no problem with tipsters proving their worth using varied staking plans, but I guess if your system returns selections without varying certainty levels it makes sense to track on a fixed stake basis.

mayoman1973

As far as confidence goes. I could never claim to be any more confident in a 3.0 shot than I would be in a 81.0 horse. But I would always stake higher on the 81.0 because I know the value in that horse is far greater than the value in the 3.0 one which has almost every ounce of value squeezed out of it. But of course strike rate is lot higher for lower odds and the importance of strike rate cannot be under estimated.

mayoman1973

but of course getting more ££ on an 81.0 is more difficult than backing a 3.0 shot. In any event, I always try to limit my winnings on any bet to 500 or less, if need to call on some friends to get more on then so be it.

PS Anton Dolin is good to take at 8.0 now but for my records I will be using 8.50 as the recorded price from this morn.

mayoman1973

"Sandown
01.09.2017
14:10"John Joiner bet 365 @ 15.00

mayoman1973

Bangor
01.09.2017
14:00 Greenworldsolution Ladbrokes @ 10.00

mayoman1973

Bangor
01.09.2017
14:00 Another Journey Bet 365 @ 21.00

mayoman1973

dawn shadow still available on corals at 7.0

mayoman1973

"Sandown
01.09.2017
15:20" Echo Cove @ 41.00

mayoman1973

Down Royal
01.09.2017
16:35 Elzaa Pokerstars @ 67.00 and also good to take at 51.0 with other books