Why would anyone give away good tips.

pearcider

Nice winner tonight!

redzerdrog

mayoman1973 wrote: »

I'm at a loss to understand why people think a lot of picks makes a system less desireable than one with fewer picks. Say you have 2 systems. One generates 1000 picks per month. The other generates 100 per month.  Both have proven ROI of 10% and similar strike rates.  If you think the one with 100 picks per month is superior then I would suggest you mute this thread and stop your betting career right now cause you are completely missing a core betting fundamental.  To previous poster, picking 1 one or 12 horses in a race has no bearing on a systems strike rate. That is another betting fundamental that is mis understood, and a very important one at that.

In this case and all other things being equal than the ROI on the one with 100 pick would surely be vastly superior?

clevtrev

redzerdrog wrote: »

In this case and all other things being equal than the ROI on the one with 100 pick would surely be vastly superior?

I think all things being equal the ROI is exactly the same for 1000 or 100 stakes if the ROI is 10% for both!

The only difference between the 2 systems is that it takes more time and effort to research and place 1,000 bets rather than 100.

Regarding betting on 12 horses in a race this will obviously reduce the potential return and increase the potential losses in that specific race but increases the probability of a return. I think the OP has shown that, as part of an the overall strategy, it is a perfectly logical approach

Got back on the winning trail with snowy winter although was a bit late on and only got a miserable 16/1 rather than the 26/1 available earlier:-)

mayoman1973

Yesterday: 14 picks, 28 pts staked, returns 73pts, +45pts
Overall: 508 picks, 1016 pts staked,  Bank = +281pts
Varience is a mad thing.  Sitting now approx 2% behind expected profit margin.  Next 500 will no doubt have a bank draining run like the past week or two. And will almost certainly have bumper days as well.
Its like coin tossing.  You pick heads. And heads comes up the first 200 times.  You havn't suddenly cracked the physics behind the gravitational pull on a coin in mid air. You just on the right side of varience. Do it 5000 times and you will be within +/- 2.5%  of 2500 heads and 2500 tails.  Same with these picks.  Went from 53% profit at start which was high side of varience down to 21% which was 9% on low side of varience.  Average  value is 30% per bet and results are sitting at 28%.
Or then again I could can all this statistical probability and say the bets last few days have been made of  extra sticky mud and few of em stuck

mayoman1973

clevtrev wrote: »

redzerdrog wrote: »

In this case and all other things being equal than the ROI on the one with 100 pick would surely be vastly superior?

I think all things being equal the ROI is exactly the same for 1000 or 100 stakes if the ROI is 10% for both!

The only difference between the 2 systems is that it takes more time and effort to research and place 1,000 bets rather than 100.

Regarding betting on 12 horses in a race this will obviously reduce the potential return and increase the potential losses in that specific race but increases the probability of a return. I think the OP has shown that, as part of an the overall strategy, it is a perfectly logical approach

Got back on the winning trail with snowy winter although was a bit late on and only got a miserable 16/1 rather than the 26/1 available earlier:-)

ye must have been very late getting on that one.  Willy didn't move price for 20min after tweet.  TBH , 16/1 was a no bet at that stage.  These are only value bets while tweeted price is available or very close to it.  You might think,  well I would have missed that winner if I didn't take a hugely reduced price.  This evens itself out. If you don't take these ones that have fallen then you will also not take the next eighteen 26.0 shots that are tweeted and don't win either.  Bet must have value,  if it doesn't then you might win today but varience will get you in the end.

mayoman1973

Yesterday: 25 picks, 50 pts staked, returns 70pts, +20pts
Overall: 533 picks, 1066 pts staked,  Bank = +301pts

mayoman1973

Today: 4 picks, 8 pts staked, returns 21pts, +13pts
Overall: 537 picks, 1074 pts staked,  Bank = +314pts

mayoman1973

Today: 4 picks, 8 pts staked, returns 5pts, -3pts
Overall: 541 picks, 1082 pts staked, Bank = +311pts

mayoman1973

Yesterday: 21 picks, 42 pts staked, returns 19pts, -23pts
Overall: 562 picks, 1124 pts staked, Bank = +288pts
Bad day, 21 attempts and no winner,  clear evidence that this system defo doesnt work !!

mayoman1973

Today: 28 picks, 56 pts staked, returns 79pts, +23pts
Overall: 590 picks, 1180 pts staked, Bank = +311pts

mayoman1973

Yesterday: 16 picks, 32 pts staked, returns 29pts, -3pts
Overall: 606 picks, 1212 pts staked, Bank = +308pts

Cherry_Cola

Has this stopped?

Car99

He's still tweeting so no it hasn't but maybe he's given up on boards.ie

ballyargus

Car99 wrote: »

He's still tweeting so no it hasn't but maybe he's given up on boards.ie

to be fair he got a lot of unnecessary flak. Not a lot of people prepared to lay it all in the open like that

Cherry_Cola

Car99 wrote: »

He's still tweeting so no it hasn't but maybe he's given up on boards.ie

Oh I know but it's been 3 days since there was a tweet so just curious. Followed most days.

Stevecw

Car99 wrote: »

He's still tweeting so no it hasn't but maybe he's given up on boards.ie

No he is not tweeting anymore...i followed him and not a thing since Oct 8

ballyargus

He's BACK!

mayoman1973

Sorry folks,  tied up last week or so,  will get numbers/stats updated when get a chance, think at about the 2/3 way stage now with round 660 tips.

Sundance_Kid

Someone untie mayoman, does not seem to be posting on twitter.

GillLebowski

RIP mayoman and his system :pac:

Guffy

GillLebowski wrote: »

RIP mayoman and his system :pac:

Did it gp wrong or just stopped posting?

mayoman1973

Hello again.  Been few months since posted on this thread. Some family stuff a lot more important than betting took priority last few months.  If there is anyone's that want me to restart posting daily tips then like this post. For the last poster,  did it all go wrong?  God no,  when you are better at calculating value than a bookie then you can never go wrong ....   Don't think I'll bother putting anything up on twitter as pain in the a$$ TBH, so will just do them here if enough people interested in making ££

Cherry_Cola

Great to have you back, looking forward to it!

mayoman1973

With the arrival of the beast from the east it will make for some lean days with the ggs.

mayoman1973

Wolverhampton 14:45 Makhfar Paddy Power 67.0
can take 51.0

mayoman1973

Get on Makhfar again at 51.0 with Paddy, 41.0 is ok as well

mayoman1973

Damm, 5th, had high hopes for that nag, and hence a lot of ££ on em. Oh well, next day. Paddy got lucky there, he went off at 26.0

mayoman1973

Lingfield 14:10 Ace Cheetah @17.00

forget this one ... price gone

mayoman1973

Lingfield 14:10 Balli Martine with Coral @ 21.00

mayoman1973

Kempton 14:30 Sir Ivan BetfairSportsbook @5.00