Hurricane Harvey

star gazer

It's been downgraded as its max sustained wind strength falls to 175km/h (Category 2) with a minimum central pressure of 954mb, 60km ssw from Victoria (Tex) moving nw at 9km/h.
Slow moving, there's still a very dangerous wind, but the flooding will come more into focus and this is forecast to be a major concern for days to come.
A lot of major flood risks for rivers:
https://twitter.com/NWS/status/901294518888280064

Wanderer78

BillyBobBS wrote:

So made landfall as a Cat 4, wow that's going to hurt. Hard to feel sorry for anyone who decided to wait it out despite all the warnings. Some people are just stupid and will never change.

People stay for various different reasons, such as fear of looting of property, complacency etc, since hurricanes are common there. I've been in dangerous situations before, whereby most had been evacuated, I was there out of pure curiosity and passion, I was with highly trained and experienced people, so felt safe. To be honest, I'd like to be there now, but in a safe place, which is probably difficult to find in certain areas. One of the first sites I checked last night was cameraman Geoff mackleys, he's not there, but has chased many similar storms in the past. I on the other hand do hope all that are still there are safe and well, as these systems are extremely dangerous. Putting yourself in dangerous situations is fine from time to time, provided you take precautions, in fact I'd encourage it, it's good for your well being. The power of nature should be embraced from time to time, it's an exhilarating and exciting experience, but be careful, it is more powerful than us, and we don't have all the facts all the time, I.e. it can bite back, so be prepared. I wish all caught up in this the very best

star gazer

NHC Harvey advisory 24 the latest forecast has it's movement even tighter until Wednesday.
Some places have already reported 250mm of rain.
50km sw of Victoria moving nw at 9km/h which is a worry.
155km/h sustained max wind, still Category 2 just about.
963mb min central pressure.

Simon Gruber Says

Approx 8:45 Irish time





Approx 11:25 Irish time





You can see it's barely moved over the course of the last two and a half hours.

star gazer

It's movement is slowing down now to 4km/h (advisory 25) Northwards, about 35km West of Victoria which must have gotten a lot of rain and wind. Harvey is also putting a lot of rain bands into the Houston area with forecasts still expecting the Houston area down to Corpus Christi to get massive rainfall accumulations.
The windspeed is slowing, down to Category 1 Hurricane, 120km/h and 984mb.
The rainfall so far:
https://twitter.com/NWS/status/901451585963917312
Even on Wednesday it's now not forecast to have moved much out of the area though the winds should have weakened a lot by then, the real problem though will be the continuous rains that will come from a lingering, then former Hurricane Harvey.

Gaoth Laidir

It's now barely a hurricane at 65 knots. Hourly rainfall seems to have really reduced, at least on radar.

star gazer

It's been downgraded to a tropical storm 110km/h wind speed max, but the problem is it's 4km/h movement and forecast not to move far for several days.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/901505392114532352
"Do not focus on the fact that Harvey is now a Tropical Storm - a catastrophic floodng event is still unfolding!"

Still tornado warnings being issued. How Harvey pulls in moisture from the Gulf could be an important contributing factor.

Gaoth Laidir

.SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES FROM 800 PM CDT THU AUG 24 THROUGH 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 26...
...TEXAS...
AUSTWELL 6 SSE 15.10
SAN ANTONIO RIVER NEAR MCFAD 13.82
COLETO CREEK AT ARNOLD ROAD 13.25
ARANSAS NWR 10.54
RICHMOND 3.4 NE 9.92
VICTORIA 2 SW 9.37
WEESATCHE 4 NNE 9.17
WESER 1.9 NW 9.17
SUGAR LAND .5 SE 8.58
.....

...SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR EARLIER IN THE EVENT...
...TEXAS...
PORT ARANSAS 2 ENE 132
COPANO VILLAGE 1 ENE 125
LAMAR 2 SSW 110
ROCKPORT 1 S 108
TAFT 5 NNE 90

All from here

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

Meteorite58

Some mad footage of the strongest winds

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=or_xsbUsINo

Note what appears to be one tough little shed !


https://twitter.com/Carly200017/status/901285523997818880

MJohnston

It's a shame the streams quality got knocked way down as the show really kicked off there, but what a madman sticking around a building that's getting torn apart (though I guess it'd be just as mad to try and move out anywhere else)

Donegal Storm

Crazy footage, not quite on par with the hurricane Charley footage but some of the best I've seen. Did the shed get destroyed right at the end or did he just not pan around far enough to see it again? Hoping the little guy made it!

MJohnston

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Crazy footage, not quite on par with the hurricane Charley footage but some of the best I've seen. Did the shed get destroyed right at the end or did he just not pan around far enough to see it again? Hoping the little guy made it!

It survived!

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/901487797504282625

Rougies

This stream from Houston is about to get very interesting as a rain band moves in. Flash flood warnings have just been issued. Plenty of T&L already and tornadoes nearby.

https://www.youtube.com/user/t3dwork/live

mel.b

Rougies wrote: »

This stream from Houston is about to get very interesting as a rain band moves in. Flash flood warnings have just been issued. Plenty of T&L already and tornadoes nearby.

https://www.youtube.com/user/t3dwork/live

I looked at that link at around 6am and the river was around 6.77 i think. Just over 3hrs later it has broken its banks at over 24 :eek: It won't take long for the motorway on the right hand side to also go under.

star gazer

Now moving at just 2km/h ssw with wind strength down to 75km/h advisory 28
It should lose tropical storm status in the next day or so but the problem is the ongoing flooding and instead of looking down river at incoming hurricane force winds and storm surge, it'll be about looking upstream at how much water is coming and where the extra rain goes. It's forecast to move closer to the Gulf of Mexico again which should push up the moisture involved.

For an idea of the ongoing dangers and impacts from the flooding (and tornado risk):
NWS Houston on twitter
https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/901746198389907456
"New flash flood emergency for life-threatening catastrophic flooding"

Current rainfall totals Some areas have had over 500mm already.
Two people have died in weather related incidents, one in Rockport, a house fire, one person in Houston in a flooded car. rte

MJohnston

Rougies wrote: »

This stream from Houston is about to get very interesting as a rain band moves in. Flash flood warnings have just been issued. Plenty of T&L already and tornadoes nearby.

https://www.youtube.com/user/t3dwork/live

Crazy, heres the difference between Streetview and that live view of the exact same spot:

star gazer

It's been like a water conveyor belt from the Gulf onto the area around Galveston - Houston and beyond. One of the things being recommended is to go to the roof of your house rather than the attic if flood waters threaten, in case of getting trapped as happened people in Hurricane Katrina. You've got to feel for the people caught up in this; the devastation of flood waters getting into homes, the danger of the floods and their relentlessness with extra rain falling all the time, rivers expecting record flooding in many if not most of the most affected areas. It's a tough time for emergency personnel but they are saving lives, it makes you appreciate the people who choose those careers as one day it might be your hand out. Stay safe Texas.

star gazer

"This event is unprecedented and all impacts are unkown and beyond anything experienced." NOAA's National Weather Service
https://twitter.com/NWS/status/901832717070983169

The forecast has changed again with Harvey now expected to remain a tropical storm (65km/h max sustained wind) for days and for its centre to move over water for roughly 48 hours and then go North on a path not too far West from Houston which is a worry for the rainfall.
Now forecasting isolated parts to get 1250mm total accumulations of rain, a few places have already had half that. This is an historic event unfolding with the worst coming as the flood waters rise.

irishgeo

Has that stream for the camera on the river gone down for anyone else?

_Whimsical_

Very frightening, I've seen someone post pictures on Facebook of an 8ft sign almost submerged on their Street. Discussions on that post are between some neighbours who've stayed in their home about going into the attic and bringing an axe in case they need to get out.

Meteorite58

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

Very frightening, I've seen someone post pictures on Facebook of an 8ft sign almost submerged on their Street. Discussions on that post are between some neighbours who've stayed in their home about going into the attic and bringing an axe in case they need to get out.

Desperate situation. And the forecasters keep emphasizing it is only beginning.

https://twitter.com/danholley_/status/901829365469728769

Meteorite58

Reports of the State looking for the public's assistance with boats and rescue vehicles as inundated with requests for assistance.

https://twitter.com/MaxMasseyTV/status/901836560932458499

https://twitter.com/TexasTribune/status/901861989470932992

https://twitter.com/KPRC2Sara/status/901802530597986305

https://twitter.com/USANewsAgency/status/901771222027001856

dfx-

What's the natural escape route for the water in Houston? Descriptions of the city include being very flat and poor drainage in the soil

bnt

dfx- wrote: »

What's the natural escape route for the water in Houston? Descriptions of the city include being very flat and poor drainage in the soil

Houston's flood warning system has details of the waterways, and this chart:

https://twitter.com/mattdpearce/status/901764113415712768

I have friends in Pearland: today there's only about 6" of water on their street, but they're concerned the worst is yet to come. They've just bought the house, only moved in about 2 weeks ago.

star gazer

With all the rain they've had already in the Houston area, the forecast for the next five days is 400mm to 650mm more rain.
https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/901933890767605760
It'll take a day or so to get back to the coast with a small strengthening on water before heading in the general direction of Houston.
Parts of Louisiana are going to a large amount of rain also.

Donegal Storm

star gazer wrote: »

The forecast has changed again with Harvey now expected to remain a tropical storm (65km/h max sustained wind) for days and for its centre to move over water for roughly 48 hours and then go North on a path not too far West from Houston which is a worry for the rainfall.
Now forecasting isolated parts to get 1250mm total accumulations of rain, a few places have already had half that. This is an historic event unfolding with the worst coming as the flood waters rise.

To put the figure in context, that's more rain than we get even in much of the West of Ireland in an entire year, and it's falling in just a few days.

Is there any precedent for such a slow moving and wet hurricane?

MJohnston

dfx- wrote: »

What's the natural escape route for the water in Houston? Descriptions of the city include being very flat and poor drainage in the soil

There's a good explanation of that here:
https://www.wired.com/story/how-will-houston-handle-the-deluge-of-hurricane-harvey/

Choice quotes:

“Just to give you a lowdown on the area, it’s wet, it’s flat, and it’s gonna be really wet in the next couple days,” says John Jacob, the director of the Texas Coastal Watershed Program at Texas A&M University. Any rain that falls in Harris County—Houston’s encircling jurisdiction—can run to sea through any of the county’s 22 watersheds. That might sound like a lot of drainage potential, but the highest point in the county is only 55 feet above sea level. That means the water can pool up pretty quickly.

star gazer

There is some dry air getting into the system from the West, North West which may provide respite for Houston with the main rain bands pushing further North/East of Houston. Harvey is pushing closer to the Gulf of Mexico so the interaction with the dry air while being over water will be one to watch. 998mb minimum central pressure, moving South East at 6km/h.

Akrasia

Two large reservoirs west of Houston are now full and they have began releasing water to avoid the risk of catastrophic failure. The reservoirs had been rising at 6 inches per hour last night and forced the Army Corps of Engineers to begin releasing water earlier than they had planned. They plan on releasing 4000 cubic feet a minute of water, but this is still less than the amount of water flowing into the reservoirs, so those levels may have to increase if the rain persists. The biggest threat is the Houston Ship Channel which contains has vast containers storing enormous amounts hazardous chemicals that would be inundated if water levels increase beyond 20 feet.

in 2008, Hurricane Ike was on the verge of breaching this 20 foot flood limit. This time they might not be so lucky.

There is now little to slow the water from the rivers upstream of Houston from flooding the city and lots more rain is forecast before the event is over.

star gazer

Houston iteself has already had about 650mm of rainfall with the forecast total accumulation set to hit close to the 1000mm of rain mark, a full meter. Given how full the area's water ways and resevoirs are already that can only be bad. Heavy rains have fallen over a good part of South Eastern Texas so it's not as if the rivers aren't filling up back along. Even if it stopped raining now there are more problems coming but it isn't and following on from what Akrasia has said, eventually what is going into the resevoirs needs to equal what is realeased to prevent structural damage/collapse. Harvey was previously able to intensify very quickly over water (having ceased to be a tropical storm for a time) but the forecast is still a small wind increase and continued flood inducing rainfall. The dry air is in the mix but there is still alot of water vapour developing over the Gulf. Pressure is at 997mb, movement: South East at 6km/h into the Gulf. Much of Louisiana is getting very heavy rainfall also.