Property price bubble - when will prices peak / decline / crash ?

Bob24

SunSeeker101 wrote: »

I went to an open viewing yesterday of a property which was on view for the first time. Got a bit of a surprise to see that only 1 other person turned up. May be we are turning a corner!

Really depends on the location I think. I was also at an initial open viewing yesterday but it was complete madness. The place was packed and new people kept coming for the whole 30 mins. Several people seemed interested and the agent was offering to organise more quiet viewings throughout the week, and one women just answered "I don't need to see it again, I know I want it". I guess the agent has found a good bidder to bring prices though the roof for that particular property.

Nice modern apartment in D6 so the high demand is of course understandable, but no sign of a slowdown on that market as far as I can see.

Sarn

SunSeeker101 wrote: »

I went to an open viewing yesterday of a property which was on view for the first time. Got a bit of a surprise to see that only 1 other person turned up. May be we are turning a corner!

I was also at a first open viewing yesterday and the queue was out the door, with lots of cars pulling up as I was leaving. It really does depend on the area, the condition of the property and the asking price.

OwlsZat

SunSeeker101 wrote: »

I went to an open viewing yesterday of a property which was on view for the first time. Got a bit of a surprise to see that only 1 other person turned up. May be we are turning a corner!

A friend is selling his house and buying elsewhere. Said the interest has really dropped off. I suspect it's due to the banks having too much of their book over the 3.5 earnings rule and foregin investors being put off my the current salary to price ratio which highlights how the prices will have to fall.

OwlsZat

SunSeeker101 wrote: »

I went to an open viewing yesterday of a property which was on view for the first time. Got a bit of a surprise to see that only 1 other person turned up. May be we are turning a corner!

A friend is selling his house and buying elsewhere. Said the interest has really dropped off. I suspect it's due to the banks having too much of their book over the 3.5 earnings rule and foreign investors being put off my the current salary to price ratio which highlights how the prices will have to fall.

Hollister11

The last house I viewed was with my parents last August. There's was us, and a couple and that's it.

The funny thing is my aunt ended up going sale agreed on it. (She's been sale agreed for a year).

Hollister11

OwlsZat wrote: »

A friend is selling his house and buying elsewhere. Said the interest has really dropped off. I suspect it's due to the banks having too much of their book over the 3.5 earnings rule and foregin investors being put off my the current salary to price ratio which highlights how the prices will have to fall.

Or maybe we'll have to wait until the new year for interest to pick up.

LirW

Well, a lot of FTB are looking to get new builds, at the moment there are plenty of launches in and around Dublin. The HTB scheme will probably be abolished soon, maybe that could be a reason. Also people just returned from holidays, it's slowly picking up again.

Villa05

Zulu wrote:

So in brief he's calling the crash now, prior to supply ramping up, on the basis that when supply does actually ramp up, it will build a momentum that will ultimately cause it to overshoot, and that will cause the bust. In other words he's calling a bubble now, before a bubble forms? Or is he saying we are now oversupplied and in a bubble?

I think he said Heading for a crash not calling the crash now

There is a bubble now price rises due to the lack of supply. Price rises multiples of the inflation rate. Price rises far greater than wage inflation

Zulu wrote:

Sounds off to me, but I'm no economist. And shouldn't credit be a lever in this? With 20% deposits and 3.5 (x salaries cap), does that not act as a break to any run away train?

Banks are profitable again because of the rise in house prices. A correction would hammer the banks.
I heard a stat during the week that 1/3 of PTSB BTL loanbook is not performing hence the offer of debt forgiveness on condition of sale. Maybe they see the peak and are minimising losses

jamesthepeach wrote:

Funny though. I googled him this morning and hes not nailing his colours to the mast in public. Just when hes locked

Most economists make there money from cheerleading bubbles and are employed by banks

qrx

SunSeeker101 wrote: »

I went to an open viewing yesterday of a property which was on view for the first time. Got a bit of a surprise to see that only 1 other person turned up. May be we are turning a corner!

I'd love that. Especially on a property I liked. When I see busy viewings at this stage I just think not going to happen. Especially when you see kids picking out their rooms you just know the EA is going to be on the foot pump.

SunSeeker101

qrx wrote: »

I'd love that. Especially on a property I liked. When I see busy viewings at this stage I just think not going to happen. Especially when you see kids picking out their rooms you just know the EA is going to be on the foot pump.

It was really odd. Only a couple of months ago another house on the same road, which wasn't in as good condition was swamped with people viewing it. I nearly wasn't going to go to this viewing as I thought the same would happen. May be people have gotten very despondent with the price rises that they have decided to stay out of the market or the FTB grant is starting to have an effect on the second hand house market.

LincolnHawk

When you're talking about viewings being empty or viewings being packed, you really need to mention the location for context

celtic_oz

Is there a sense of excitement ?

OwlsZat

LincolnHawk wrote: »

When you're talking about viewings being empty or viewings being packed, you really need to mention the location for context

While that's true, even if the non desirable locations are dropping off in interest it's a sign of the market changing. Incidentally there was a launch for a new estate  in Naas today, which I heard was mobbed beyond belief. The last of the FTBs grants I guess.

OwlsZat

How can 60% of property sales YTD be cash. How is that actually possible?

jamesthepeach

celtic_oz wrote: »

Is there a sense of excitement ?

I think investors are actually at capitulation.

Dr_Kolossus

OwlsZat wrote: »

How can 60% of property sales YTD be cash. How is that actually possible?

If you already own and have sold, I guess you could have the cash at hand. Might make up a % of them

Bob24

jamesthepeach wrote: »

I think investors are actually at capitulation.

Not the ones going to the viewings I attend! Feels more like excetment to me when I see the resulting bidding wars.

Also the fact that a very large share of transactions are still from cash buyers it would tend to indicate investors are strong supporters of the current market (some cash buyers are owner occupiers alright, but a majority must be investors).

Henbabani

I think we can got a good direction of the prices if we know what's the increasing by month and not by year to year as it posted all over the news.

when we know whats happend month by month, maybe, we can see some stabilze even though we need to remember that two things make the prices rise up by double digits - the summer months which always busy months in the property market, and the fact that the HTB scheme probably vanish.

LirW

the summer months which always busy months in the property market

Not really, during the summer months you'd have a slowdown traditionally, simply because everyone's going on holidays. Try getting onto estate agents or solicitors during late July and the whole of August. I closed a sale in August and the summer months were the only reason why the last few things were delayed.
Monthly rises are a bit difficult, quarterly assessments make a lot more sense really. A month is no time on the market, therefore it's really difficult to assess a trend, every 3 or even better 6 months make a lot more sense because you can actually read a trend out of it.

um7y1h83ge06nx

I reckon we could have a slowdown and drop within the next year if the CPO of vacant homes is aggressively rolled out.

Investors may get nervous that the CPO could extend further to investments properties and look to make their assets more liquid and exit the market. Foreign investors in particularly may become more cautious and look elsewhere.

Henbabani

LirW wrote: »

the summer months which always busy months in the property market

Not really, during the summer months you'd have a slowdown traditionally, simply because everyone's going on holidays. Try getting onto estate agents or solicitors during late July and the whole of August. I closed a sale in August and the summer months were the only reason why the last few things were delayed.
Monthly rises are a bit difficult, quarterly assessments make a lot more sense really. A month is no time on the market, therefore it's really difficult to assess a trend, every 3 or even better 6 months make a lot more sense because you can actually read a trend out of it.

Agreed but on the other hand a lot parents move out or in with kids during summer vacation, a lot of students getting apartment for the next year, and the fear of the young couples from HTB scheme getting cancelled increased the number of transactions.

mloc123

Henbabani wrote: »

Agreed but on the other hand a lot parents move out or in with kids during summer vacation, a lot of students getting apartment for the next year, and the fear of the young couples from HTB scheme getting cancelled increased the number of transactions.

For rentals.. maybe. For sales, the summer is dead. The two busiest times of year are... September (people aim to be moved for Christmas) and January-February (People aim to be moved for summer... with children moved and settled before starting a new school in September).

zl1whqvjs75cdy

I'm still not convinced the htb scheme will be scrapped. Don't see the political advantage to doing it. No one is really going on about it and it's in place for less than a year. If it's undone now it speaks volumes about how inept the response to the housing crisis is. That's just my opinion of course, based on absolutely nothing.

OwlsZat

Jacoby Acidic Pig wrote: »

I reckon we could have a slowdown and drop within the next year if the CPO of vacant homes is aggressively rolled out.

Investors may get nervous that the CPO could extend further to investments properties and look to make their assets more liquid and exit the market. Foreign investors in particularly may become more cautious and look elsewhere.

I read the CPO story but I wouldn't put much weight to it. CPO's are so convoluted and they really only serve to make our legal representatives rich. I'm not sure how many will be pushed through as a result. The whole story read to me like political posturing. Obviously, I hope I'm wrong.

jamesthepeach

OwlsZat wrote: »

I read the CPO story but I wouldn't put much weight to it. CPO's are so convoluted and they really only serve to make our legal representatives rich. I'm not sure how many will be pushed through as a result. The whole story read to me like political posturing. Obviously, I hope I'm wrong.

Yeah I see lots of legal action ahead if they start trying to cpo properties.