Autumn 2017 - General Discussion

Elmer Blooker

snowstorm445 wrote: »

The bad news is that the models have the Atlantic high quickly collapsing and leaving us in cold but dry.

Dry yes but I'm not sure that it will be cold, mild Atlantic air will topple over the high giving cloudy weather and that vile anticyclonic gloom.
Terribly disappointing after some promising charts only a few days ago.

Snowbiee21

Ah one Model Run won’t bite

BLIZZARD7

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Dry yes but I'm not sure that it will be cold, mild Atlantic air will topple over the high giving cloudy weather and that vile anticyclonic gloom.
Terribly disappointing after some promising charts only a few days ago.

Thats only the UKMO though and it has been quite inconsistent with its outlook, in fact all the models have been after +120hrs. ECM and GFS look colder and drier - also potentially something more interesting down the line. The only major theme that's been consistent across all the models is how blocked off the Atlantic is.

Meteorite58

All the models quite close on Weds, Thurs. The UKMO showing the HP over us more perhaps by Thurs. The jet quite strong straight out of the Arctic. Wind looks quite fresh next week giving a fair windchill reading. From Mon night looks like a continuation of wintry showers throughout the week .

giveitholly

how far south do you think any wintry showers could get in that setup do you think meteorite58?

George Sunsnow

giveitholly wrote: »

how far south do you think any wintry showers could get in that setup do you think meteorite58?

Thursday is a northeasterly on that chart so showers would be concentrated on the east coast and Leinster

kod87

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Thursday is a northeasterly on that chart so showers would be concentrated on the east coast and Leinster

Well if we take the GFS at face value then at no point in the next week are the winds northeasterly (mainly N to NW ), so the north coast might see some light wintry showers considering that pressure will be relatively high.

Clonmel1000

4 degrees cloudy and cold with a biting wind. Nice and bright today though so welcome.

JCX BXC

Could finally be in for a good frost in West Clare on Thursday so!

It's just struck me how unusual this season has been, I've not seen one air frost and no ground frost worth noting, yet there's been snowfall. My lowest temperature since Spring (0.8c) was recorded during that snow shower.

George Sunsnow

kod87 wrote: »

Well if we take the GFS at face value then at no point in the next week are the winds northeasterly (mainly N to NW ), so the north coast might see some light wintry showers considering that pressure will be relatively high.

You should always read those maps with a slight eastern correction of the lines as the map is straight unlike the actual physical position of everything
I do not know why the raw maps do that
So no Nw in that NNE

Gaoth Laidir

George Sunsnow wrote: »

You should always read those maps with a slight eastern correction of the lines as the map is straight unlike the actual physical position of everything
I do not know why the raw maps do that
So no Nw in that NNE

I don't get you.

MJohnston

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I don't get you.

I think he means the projection used in the maps confuses the relative compass directions.

Clonmel1000

The grey slate is back today. wet dreary temp hovering around 9 degrees.

George Sunsnow

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

The grey slate is back today. wet dreary temp hovering around 9 degrees.

Count yoursel lucky
Only 6.4c in Arklow

Gonzo

feeling much milder today.

So far all I've seen is one frost over the past few days. I was away in Dublin on Friday night so unsure if there was any snow at my location Friday night/early Saturday morning.

Gaoth Laidir

MJohnston wrote: »

I think he means the projection used in the maps confuses the relative compass directions.

I know, but the maps are centred along the Prime Meridion, and even looking at the Europe LCC projection map on Meteociel I still don't get what his point is. The isolines are still lined up correctly relative to the cartography, even if both are distorted at high latitudes.

George Sunsnow

G L I know what you are doing and I’m not wasting my day (again) playing with you on this.

Only 6.4c and raining in Arklow,it’s probably a bit sleety on lugnaquilla

Gaoth Laidir

George Sunsnow wrote: »

G L I know what you are doing and I’m not wasting my day (again) playing with you on this.

?? Relax. It's a geniune question. I honestly don't get what you mean about the lines.

I also don't get why the hostility. :rolleyes:

George Sunsnow

Temp has dropped slightly here to 6.2c
No warmth arriving yet

Meteorite58

giveitholly wrote: »

how far south do you think any wintry showers could get in that setup do you think meteorite58?

It looks similar next week to the last few days. Wintry showers mostly on high ground mainly on the coastal areas in the N, NE and W, SW from Mon night perhaps.

From Tues evening looks like wintry showers more inland in Ulster and the NW.

Weds again wintry showers mainly on high ground in N and NW and perhaps W coastal counties.

Wouldn't be surprised to see the Wicklow mountains getting some wintry showers during the week along with high ground in other inland areas.


Met Eireann mentioning an increased risk of showers extending into Eastern parts of the country on Thurs, they have dropped the word snow. Looks like the cold pool of 500hPa air moves more E even though the 850 hPa temp is quite cold.

Oscar Bravo

Wet breezy and mild(10 degrees) in Castlebar although not feeling mild. horrible evening.

Gaoth Laidir

At the risk of provoking more bizarre behaviour by some, here is the ECMWF snowline and 850 winds for next Wednesday night. Similar to the past few days, though the scope for precipitation will be that bit lower as upper temperatures rise from the west. Note the slight northwesterly component to the steering winds, so not as good for the east coast.

Snowline (m)


850 hPa streamlines


3-hr Precip


500 hPa temp

Harry Palmr

Chilly but no chance of snow by the looks of it, well maybe the odd shower in the north.

pad199207

This bite of the cherry won’t produce much in the way of excitement. Going by models this evening it certainly won’t be our last go at it!

It will be cold and frosty and I will take that over the grey Atlantic mush any day!

Gonzo

snow is almost unlikely this week except maybe a rogue flurry on northern hills or mountains. There could be some frost this week and feeling cold throughout, bringing a cold close to Autumn 2017.

Winter starts from Friday, we could be in store for something a bit more rewarding within the next 10 to 21 days but as always we need a lot of luck on our side.

pauldry

Really has been wet on Sligo this weekend

See Finner has had 52mm in past 7 days but Markree way drier than Sligo town and Id ssy we hv had easily 70mm

George Sunsnow

Gonzo wrote: »

snow is almost unlikely this week except maybe a rogue flurry on northern hills or mountains. There could be some frost this week and feeling cold throughout, bringing a cold close to Autumn 2017.

Winter starts from Friday, we could be in store for something a bit more rewarding within the next 10 to 21 days but as always we need a lot of luck on our side.

Well Thursday as I alluded to earlier still looks to be more northeasterly on the ECM but obviously can change
If it is populated high ground on the east coast may see snow in some showers

Meteorite58

Quite windy for a time in the NW this afternoon / early evening. Breezy in all coastal areas today.

Clonmel1000

It’s a thoroughly miserable day here today wet cold dark.

Meteorite58

Frequent showers, breezy and feeling cold at 7.9C here near Tralee.