FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Meteorite58

That would do nicely from the ECMWF for the long weekend, have a lot of outside jobs I would like to finish






GFS showing HP around then as well.

Harry Palmr

Like I said in one sentence!

Captain Snow

Snow Anyone..................:pac:



It will be cold the first week of November.

Iancar29

Another GFS run, another few ensemble members showing blocking in the Atlantic and producing a nice cold northerly for the first week of November.

Heres the best of the bunch.





Overall ensemble 12z members prob of 850hp<5c

Donegal Storm

Even the operational run is pretty good, first real cold charts of the season!



We seem to be in the midst of a pattern change at the moment so it'll probably take the models a few days to get to grips with things, probably to early in the season yet for anything too interesting but encouraging signs at least that the endless westerlies might stop for a while

pauldry

Id say it will result in a cool NW in the end with temperatures of 8 to 10c and night time readings down near 0c

Still think it will be a cold Winter though as Arctic is freezing up nicely and Pacific is cooling

Iancar29

Another nice GFS op run this morning




A fairly significant event for Scotland for the start of the season if came true.

pauldry

What a tease!!!

If only it were true.

sryanbruen

The GFS 12z is sticking to its guns.

sryanbruen

After the northerly comes an easterly on the GFS 12z towards the second week of November :P

Pangea

Ireland playing in Copenhagen on Nov 11th, could be bitter there.

Meteorite58

Well there is a nasty system straight out of Greenland if it came off, has to be taken as a curiosity atm though with too much chopping and changing in the charts to take it seriously for now.

ECM has a more benign area of LP moving out of Greenland in the same timescale but taking a track well W of Ireland on the last run ( 12Z rolling out now )

icesnowfrost

Can i just say it's great to be back. Love this time of year getting back on boards ❄️❄️

sryanbruen

Ireland is placed on the periphery of the low on the GFS 06z

sryanbruen

Now the GFS 12z has a ridge just building over us.

Donegal Storm

Excellent, too early in the season for anything interesting for a northerly but a dry settled spell is long, long overdue. The prospect of not having puddles of water outside or a waterlogged garden will be a novelty in itself

pauldry

Or a 24 hr period with no rain....at all....0.5mm shower is still rain

Looks like a few frosty days in November

Meteorite58

Areas of HP drifting around over the next 5 or 6 days keeping any significant weather at bay. Some rain at times but it would seem nothing too heavy. Both GFS and ECMWF picking up cold weather around the weekend of 3 to 5 Nov. Some cold nights in store. White caps on mountains in Northern counties from wintry precipitation perhaps?





Temp Anomaly 850hpa Tropical Tidbits.com





The Jet continues to take a Northerly arc down into Europe, very benign around us, signs of some strengthening over us from next weekend.

sryanbruen

Plenty of twist and turns (as MT has highlighted in his forecast) for the next few weeks between different patterns. The GFS 12z has the prospect of a northerly from the 13th-15th with the low pressure then sinking southwards into France allowing an easterly to take place.

sryanbruen

The GFS 06z shows northerlies again for the middle of November, it's been pretty consistent with this:



The ECM 00z shows a northerly taking place but we're on the periphery of the cold air:



Notice the northern blocking though on both charts, especially the ECM.... proving that the NAO and AO are trending negative mid-month onwards.

sryanbruen

The GFS keeps playing with next weekend/mid-November's northerly. This chart from the 12z is very similar to the ECM 00z on Friday with Ireland on the periphery of the trough recording plenty of dry conditions. All the while, very stubborn Northern Blocking is building over Greenland and the Arctic.



The ECM 12z today is showing what the GFS 06z was showing on Friday for this weekend with a straight northerly. They literally swapped around with each other :P.

So all eyes on next weekend's northerly. It has just been upgraded a lot on the ECM today, it will probably downgrade from here on. I hope I'm wrong!

sryanbruen

This chart from the GFS 12z +324 hours is absolutely stunning. A bitter easterly with a Greenland block of 1072mb!!!! We have not seen air pressure in this part of the world that high since December 2010. Too bad it's +324 hours out .

BLIZZARD7

sryanbruen wrote: »

This chart from the GFS 12z +324 hours is absolutely stunning. A bitter easterly with a Greenland block of 1072mb!!!! We have not seen air pressure in this part of the world that high since December 2010. Too bad it's +324 hours out .

The previous few charts are also fantastic though, day 10 onwards are just stunning synoptics from a northern hemisphere viewpoint - one to keep an eye on.

sryanbruen

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

The previous few charts are also fantastic though, day 10 onwards are just stunning synoptics from a northern hemisphere viewpoint - one to keep an eye on.

Yep, GFS 12z for this coming Sunday with a northerly airstream though looking very quiet and dry:



ECM 12z is very similar but the northerly airstream is over towards the North Sea leaving Ireland in a large lack of wind which would give away to very dry conditions, severe frost and fog.

sryanbruen

ECM 12z +120hrs, nearly out of the FI range. Northerly air stream with winds straight from the Arctic.

Meteorite58

Always the best charts away out in FI :pac:

BLIZZARD7

ECM Day 10 is only going one direction from here - straight into the freezer. High pressure over Ireland to retrogress to Greenland followed by the floodgates opening from the North /North East. Reminds me of the second spell of December 2010.




GFS not quite on the same page, expect a lot more chopping and changing as the global weather models come to grips with this unusual setup. Somewhere in the mid latitudes is odds on to get a serious cold injection in the coming weeks.

10 days is a huge amount of time in weather terms anyway, anything can change.

Meteorite58

IMO ECM and the GFS atm beginning to take on some similar characteristic from next Thurs through to Sun with cold air being pulled down from the NW, N ( ECM looks like it could prolong that cold spell ).

GFS been showing some vigorous cyclogenesis development around the same time period for a few runs now but not the ECM which would make things very complex with regards to spells of mild / cold air with lots of mixing and perhaps potentially very wet at times . ECM looks the coldest at this stage. Interesting spell of weather coming up.

Meteorite58

MJohnston

Just a quick question Meteorite - is there any analysis on which of the models is more reliable for this kind of system?