FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

pad199207

derekon wrote: »

Whet route is that? The "always next week and then suddenly it's Spring" route? That's the road most travelled for us boardsies!!

D

Yep thats the one

BLIZZARD7

pad199207 wrote: »

Charts from the 17, then 19th and now the 26th? I think this is going down a very familiar route....

There are plenty of excellent charts at days 7-10 if you look. In fact as Kermit points out - the GFS is bringing the colder solution closer with nice height rises to our north in place by +192hrs. The ECM is much flatter and the eps in general aren't as good as yesterday so it would be nice if it flipped back this evening... It's not fair to say we're looking further into FI yet though, The SSW is starting tomorrow, still looking like a quick trop response if we're going to see its impacts in under 10 days.

The zonal wind reversal is still looking extreme - posted by sryanbruen earlier on, the models are likely still getting to grips with such a huge change.

Lumi

Mod Note
A large number of off topic posts have been moved to the Winter Discussion thread.

Just to remind you all

This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

Kermit.de.frog

Sign of amplification in the jet stream at 168 hrs on the GFS...good sign

sryanbruen

Yep, what an awesome GFS 12z already!

sryanbruen

The best run of the Winter award goes to the GFS 12z :P. Oh lordy lord.

Kermit.de.frog

Something on the boil. GFS Control run is broadly similar in evolution.

BLIZZARD7

Was just going to post the control run - outrageous, Very cold from day 8 onwards -

pad199207

ECM says no so far and most likely will be correct. Why cant we ever have cross model agreement on an easterly?

Its never a good sign when ECM says no and to be honest i would nearly dismiss that GFS run this evening.

George Sunsnow

I’d actually prefer ec phantom easterly m to be saying no at this stage to be quite honest in favour of what it suggests when it has certain data from an actually occurred strat warm

Tickityboo

pad199207 wrote: »

ECM says no so far and most likely will be correct. Why cant we ever have cross model agreement on an easterly?

Its never a good sign when ECM says no and to be honest i would nearly dismiss that GFS run this evening.

Jaysus you really are more pessimistic than the most pessimistic of pessimistic things!!!

pad199207

Tickityboo wrote: »

Jaysus you really are more pessimistic than the most pessimistic of pessimistic things!!!

I know it wouldnt be like me

Tickityboo

pad199207 wrote: »

I know it wouldnt be like me

Ha Ha Fair play!!
I know it's a pain when one model pisses all over the great runs to spoil it .
But you never know the GFS could be on the money.

YanSno

Back after long time previous contributer formely known as yansnow. You will see big changes in models the next day or two and ssw coming into effect from day 6- 7 i suspect. In summary very cold end of February.

pad199207

Tickityboo wrote: »

Ha Ha Fair play!!
I know it's a pain when one model pisses all over the great runs to spoil it .
But you never know the GFS could be on the money.

Burned and Scalled so many times since 2010

Neddyusa

pad199207 wrote: »

Why cant we ever have cross model agreement on an easterly?

Simple answer to that is. ....

because it's not real :p


I'm certainly unconvinced about the serious cold being anywhere other than North-east Canada in a weeks time. That lobe of vortex ain't going anywhere too soon.

Elmer Blooker

sryanbruen wrote: »

What happened to being optimistic?

Also, what's this then?

The ECM isn't always correct, remember how at the start of January it raised our hopes? It was spectacularly WRONG. The GFS wasn't interested in any blocking and was correct.
Sryansbruen's post above was on Jan 3rd.

sryanbruen

The GFS is sticking to its guns so far on the 18z.

sryanbruen

The GFS 18z ends with the high pressure pushing away to the south and east of Europe as the Polar Vortex tries to regain itself and give us our normal zonal conditions but is kind of struggling.

pad199207

I think every option is on the table going forward after this evenings runs and certainly to call a proper cold spell on the way would be very brave.

M.T. Cranium

I don't think I've ever posted in this thread, but anyway, the 00z GFS run ends with an all-out blizzard set up for many parts of Britain and eastern Ireland (26th-27th).

(added later) ... out to 21st 00z, the ECM seems uninterested in the easterly potential and keeps a weak Atlantic southwesterly in control all the way to the Baltic. The GEM however swings faster than the GFS to an easterly by about day seven.

Battle of the models, part 782.

George Sunsnow

It’s fascinating though that both the two main models UKMO and ECM are similar with a mild high stretching in or a Bartlet (a Euro high that gives southerlies or southwesterlies to Ireland) in a week or 10 days
That would run counter to the notion that what’s influencing strat modeling is also capable of throwing up the easterlies in FI expected in our latitudes later from the strat warm further south
I also notice in public tv forecasts anyway ,all mention of strat warming has been quietened

Conclusion? Wait until the SW beds down
FI is meaningless in the troposphere (including when it shows what you wish for) as always,how could it be otherwise with another huge new ingredient thrown into the chaos

pad199207

Consistent ECM again this morning by the looks of it. A move to ECM by the GFS too.

typhoony

The easterly has gone from the GFS, the mid week low which tracks towards Iceland is shunting the Scandinavian high east, the low does'nt my get much further east, a few days of pleasant southwesterlies arriving next weekend, still no guarantees as cold air tends to hang around longer than the models predict

patneve2

Not happy with the models at all this morning even though there are still a good few GFS ensembles going for cold. Will give it another 2 weeks of model watching before I give up all hope though..

George Sunsnow

I presume some of us here have diplomas from the university of reverse psychology?
Let’s ask Tomaz if you don’t like snow look away now Schafernaker what’s happening starting tomorrow

East is East

munsterlegend

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I presume some of us here have diplomas from the university of reverse psychology?
Let’s ask Tomaz if you don’t like snow look away now Schafernaker what’s happening starting tomorrow

East is East

The met office uk have been saying for over a week now that there will very cold conditions towards the end of February. I know that doesn't guarantee anything for Ireland but it's not what the ECM is showing.

cherryghost

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I presume some of us here have diplomas from the university of reverse psychology?
Let’s ask Tomaz if you don’t like snow look away now Schafernaker what’s happening starting tomorrow

East is East

FLASH PLAYER? F to that

Gonzo

cherryghost wrote: »

FLASH PLAYER? F to that

it's annoying, most be a mistake, the rest of their videos play fine.

BLIZZARD7

GFS 12z back on track, we get a nice high pressure building over the country before it starts to build northwards... A new direction perhaps. Strat warming will be fed in to the initialization data from the start of runs from now on.

I'm not sure why we were seeing the blocking vanish from the last few GFS and ECM runs, totally at odds with the zonal wind reversal.