FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Donegal Storm

nacho libre wrote: »

The cold could get deflected further south, unlikely at this stage, but sinking over us?
I really can't see how the High will sink over us given the jet stream profile and the canadian vortex being all but dead, also once you have a low near Genoa it should help to maintain the high where it is.

Sinking over us probably not the right words, I meant the south eastern flank of the high being too close to us and deflecting the unstable air too far south, a few ECMWF runs have come close to that happening.



Still on track for now at least and a spectacularly snowy GFS run just now so alls good :cool:

nacho libre

If you notice up until yesterday the UK Met Office did speak of the possibilty of the high shifting too far south leading to just dry weather, but they have dropped it now.

Which is why I feel confident in saying the high won't be close enough to kill off precipitation. What i'm not confident about is the snowmageddon charts coming to pass. If they are still showing on Sunday morning then it's time to go bat**** crazy:o

Gonzo

nacho libre wrote: »

If you notice up until yesterday the UK Met Office did speak of the possibilty of the high shifting too far south leading to just dry weather, but they have dropped it now.

Which is why I feel confident in saying the high won't be close enough to kill off precipitation. What i'm not confident about is the snowmageddon charts coming to pass. If they are still showing on Sunday morning then it's time to go bat**** crazy:o

it now looks like the cold is definitely locked in at this stage but the snow sure isn't. Sunday/Monday will be a much better idea of how the snow will shape up next week.

lucernarian

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Yeah that's what I meant, the south eastern flank of the high will always be nearby early next week so a slight shift southeastward and we'd just see a few dry and frosty days.

Still on track for now though and cold is all but certain, I reckon by Saturday evenings runs we should have a fairly accurate picture of Tuesday/Wednesday

True, and a HP like that can only do so much when it's in the reliable timeframe. All the signs point to it heading north/west at some point and then, in the worst case scenario, we have a battleground situation on our bands

The cold has to be a certainty unless all the models have been fed astronaut food for breakfast, lunch and dinner 3 days straight!

weatherfiend

aidanodr wrote: »

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/966726802998571009

That is a very cool video for the un-knowledgeable like me

Kermit.de.frog

If anything the GFS control run, not only backs the operational, but if anything slightly more potential.

pistolpetes11

Technical event thread now open

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057844498

M.T. Cranium

It turned out in that discussion a few days ago that in fact the east-west ridge has shown up less eroded by a northerly from high latitudes, most of the signal for that seems to have transferred to smaller features moving west in the broad easterly.

At this point I think the chances of snow are much higher than 50-50, I would place the 50-50 line at 20 cms at this point. You just can't move that depth of cold out over the surrounding seas of Britain and Ireland without filling it up with snow making streamers, especially not with the gradient winds we are seeing by 28 Feb and 1 Mar.

Meteorite58

Signs of cold weather hanging around the following week.

Lumi

New thread for spring
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057847461#