FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

kod87

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Indeed, it seems that every time a northerly collapses we have another shot of WAA into Greenland and the subsequent northerly is that bit colder each time, long May it continue!

Brings in a reload of very cold weather but overall would be very dry as the high pressure is always very close to us

BLIZZARD7

kod87 wrote: »

Brings in a reload of very cold weather but overall would be very dry as the high pressure is always very close to us

It's academic at this stage but yeah away from the North it looks dry. In reality though it's usually a case of get the cold in first and the snow will follow. So far we are doing very well on getting the cold in part. With some slightly different angles to that high on the ECM and a better angle of the low on Eastern seaboard of the US at +192 hrs we would have been looking at -10 to -12c 850 temps on a roaring North easterly rather than the -7/-8c and dry +216 chart. Not much point in trusting the models on such details til we get down to the +96 - +120hrs timeframe.

Encouraging signs all in all, UKMO only concern at the moment. UK met office outlook is staying cold out til mid December though - I think the ECM is leading the way here at the moment.

A rare situation to have reloading Northerlys, The Northern hemisphere looks primed to bring us an easterly later on too with the Siberian high growing in presence.

ECM Day 10 is heading towards yet another northerly eventually with a low dropping South and devoloping GH -

Meteorite58

ECM showing a vigorous area of LP pop up North of us out in FI ( Polar low ? ) It did very well recently predicting the Genoa Low about 10 days out , will pick this to see how well it fares











GFS

BLIZZARD7

AO forecast to fall through the floor- sustained below -3, the control run is extreme, someone find me an example of a -5/-6 AO that has not resulted in a severe cold spell for these shores. @sryanbruen that might be one for you.



Have to say, unless the UKMO is right and almost all other models are wrong - we are heading towards a really interesting spell of weather. Big similarities now with where we were in 1962, 1981, 2009, 2010. That of course doesn't mean we are in for a repeat by any means, things are looking very good though. Another winter to remember I hope...

snowstorm445

:eek::eek::eek:

BLIZZARD7

snowstorm445 wrote: »

:eek::eek::eek:

18z GFS is stunning -

Captain Snow

Like OMG

There is something big going to happen in wintery terms in the next 2 to 3 weeks. Unbelievable Runs.





LOL looks like everyone is the same page...

icesnowfrost

It's great seeing so many models backing each other up. -8 uppers right into December. Don't want to see the work downgrade plz

pad199207

Until UKMO is onboard I am NOT being led down the garden path again!

If I remember correctly in 2012 the GFS and ECM were screaming promise as close as +96 until a huge backtrack to the UKMO .

Captain Snow

With high pressure holding back the Dormant Atlantic. Can see a constant flow of Polar Low pressure systems heading down over western Europe. Maybe a Omega block forming later on in winter.....:D

BLIZZARD7

pad199207 wrote: »

Until UKMO is onboard I am NOT being led down the garden path again!

If I remember correctly in 2012 the GFS and ECM were screaming promise as close as +96 until a huge backtrack to the UKMO .

That was horrible, but yes you're right- we had a huge easterly with sub -10c uppers showing 4 days away only for the UKMO to have been right and every other model wrong.

BLIZZARD7

Just for fun - gefs ensemble 19 on the 12z run.

Never seen anything like that -

Captain Snow

Greenland High linking to a Scandinavian High




Get in there.

esposito

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

That was horrible, but yes you're right- we had a huge easterly with sub -10c uppers showing 4 days away only for the UKMO to have been right and every other model wrong.

Yeah, let's not underestimate the UKMO.
It could well be right again. Only time will tell.

pad199207

‘That GFS’ is the stuff that dreams are made of.

That looks even better than that elusive 2012 easterly.

Why am I even more nervous for the morning runs.....

BLIZZARD7

18z GFS is extreme, would be on par with 2010 in terms of depth of cold and snow amounts. Fun to look at but we need the UKMO on board as pad points out. Also this is mostly in FI.

Donegal Storm

18z is still just cool and dry with snow confined to higher ground in the north for the most part, the northerly flow is fairly slack so surface temps will be heavily modified.

Latter part of the run is a lot more interesting but it'll be totally different again in the morning I'm sure. Nice to see the Atlantic blocked right to the end of the run though and looking forward to plenty of frosty sunshine this week, a good start to the season at least

Snowbiee21

Donegal Storm wrote: »

18z is still just cool and dry with snow confined to higher ground in the north for the most part, the northerly flow is fairly slack so surface temps will be heavily modified.

Latter part of the run is a lot more interesting but it'll be totally different again in the morning I'm sure. Nice to see the Atlantic blocked right to the end of the run though and looking forward to plenty of frosty sunshine this week, a good start to the season at least

When us ukmo released

SeaBreezes

pad199207 wrote: »

Until UKMO is onboard I am NOT being led down the garden path again!

If I remember correctly in 2012 the GFS and ECM were screaming promise as close as +96 until a huge backtrack to the UKMO .

I have to agree all last year charts were amazing 10 days out.. but Ukmo was inevitably the most accurate in the end :-(

Gaoth Laidir

George Sunsnow

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

When us ukmo released

There’ll be one overnight available at breakfast time

I’m with pad on this,January 2007 being the ultimate tease model wise
There is reason to have some faith here though as if the NH current profile continues to keep trying like this,eventually the probability has to be higher than usual of something more interesting snow wise coming out of it

arctictree

Why the gloom? Some great FI charts on the GFS 06z

George Sunsnow

pad199207 wrote: »

The silence says it all really.

Although not a complete backtrack on the 0z I worry that it will be come the 12z’s

To be fair,all that’s happened in modeling is a shortwave is being fired west to east near Iceland and then apparently wants to go south after which the profile it broke through May continue to strengthen
It will be difficult for the next one to push through a more built block
That’s an ad break not the finishing credits

Stay positive

pistolpetes11

MOD NOTE

Folks this is the FI charts thread , posting up the charts and discussion of them would be appreciated

I meant to move all the posts to another thread and deleted all the off topic ones by mistake , my bad

pistolpetes11

Things starting to shape up nicely , over to you ECM for the Hat Trick

BLIZZARD7

Very good UKMO run if it's cold and maybe snowy weather you want to see - almost identical to the GFS 12z at +144hrs and that goes on to show -8c upper temps dropping down from the north over the country... Can we have all three major models in agreement this evening?

pistolpetes11

This is well out in FI , but hay thats what were here for :pac::pac::pac::pac:

Reckless Abandonment

Just for fun.

pad199207

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Things starting to shape up nicely , over to you ECM for the Hat Trick

Ye mean over to the ECM for it to be the one to throw a spanner in the works this evening

pistolpetes11

That will do Pig that will do ............