FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

pistolpetes11

pauldry wrote: »

Yeah the ol warm December on the cards once more

We must be at the bottom of the rollercoaster

Oh look theres another hill ahead!!!:)

MOD NOTE

As per yesterdays note , This thread is for posting up charts or discussion of posted charts , its supposed to be on more of a scientific level than the general chat threads

George Sunsnow

You are requiring high pressure to tilt in a specific way ala a few times in nov dec 2010
Most ways that it can tilt feeds in Atlantic air
Ergo the search for the blue moon will be a long one
There are no scientists in this thread but WC and Iancar both study or have degrees in meteorology
(I remember them when posting here as school kids :O )

pistolpetes11

There will be run to run swings as we can see in the two charts posted below ,





The main points to take from this for the cold weather lovers

1. 1 Don't get overly excited by each models run variations if they swing in your favour
2. 2 Don't get too disheartened if they swing against you

The main points to take from this for mild weather lovers

1. 1 Don't get overly excited by each models run variations if they swing in your favour
2. 2 Don't get too disheartened if they swing against you

Some of us have been here for a long long time , there are many types who use this forum but everyones opinion is as valid as the next ! lets all enjoys the ups and downs no matter what type of weather you love

icesnowfrost

Bit of an upgrade on the latest GFS run from the 5th OF DECEMBER.
The charts don't seem to want to let go of the cold scenarios it's very interesting at the moment.

pistolpetes11

George Sunsnow wrote: »

You are requiring high pressure to tilt in a specific way ala a few times in nov dec 2010
Most ways that it can tilt feeds in Atlantic air
Ergo the search for the blue moon will be a long one
There are no scientists in this thread but WC and Iancar both study or have degrees in meteorology
(I remember them when posting here as school kids :O )

And I know of one or two others who have a massive interest in Metrology , along with some folks from the Aviation industry who again have a massive in-depth knowledge

George Sunsnow

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

And I know of one or two others who have a massive interest in Metrology , along with some folks from the Aviation industry who again have a massive in-depth knowledge

The word is obsession Pistol not interest

Regardless in the realm of FI we can only talk about possible scenarios and pointers
However much as the gfs goes mad out in La la land the likes of the attached image from today’s 6Z gfs is exactly what would happen eventually if the current blocked theme keeps reloading

Edit Stupid iPhone
Will attach image later when I figure out why it won’t
Suffice to say late FI is a snow fest,a natural consequence of reload after reload regardless of model

icesnowfrost

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017112806/gfs-1-192.png?6
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017112806/gfs-1-384.png?6from the 6th to the 14th is looking very cold. And uppers are perfect. Plus we are officially in winter by then so hopefully a more sustainable cold air source will be about.

Rebelbrowser

Hello.....

BLIZZARD7

GFS and UKMO both quite good at +144hrs, GFS a touch better over greenland but UKMO is better upstream. I would be a bit surprised if the 12z ECM is like this mornings Run, it's clear the models are struggling with this one and so I expect many more twists and turns. Blocking over Canada/Greenland has been a dominant theme of FI on the GFS for a while now- if we can get lower pressure over southern europe than the models are showing it would make it all a lot less complicated.

12z GFS run has a very snowy few days from about +192 to +264hrs.

George Sunsnow

According to Nick on net weather who’s obviously looked at The US met services tech discussion ,the overnight ECM is for the bin

“
NOAA have just called the ECM 00hrs run outlandish ! They have serious doubts over this mornings op run which is good news because it was dreadful from a cold perspective! “

pistolpetes11

George Sunsnow wrote: »

According to Nick on net weather who’s obviously looked at The US met services tech discussion ,the overnight ECM is for the bin

“
NOAA have just called the ECM 00hrs run outlandish ! They have serious doubts over this mornings op run which is good news because it was dreadful from a cold perspective! “

Was just about to post the same

sryanbruen

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Was just about to post the same

Same here :P.

Rebelbrowser

Which suggests too many of you are reading the NW Model Output Discussion Forum! Not good for anyone's health or sanity as ye probably know already.....

squarecircles

The pink gold...

BLIZZARD7

Much improved 12z ECM up to +168hrs - hopefully by this time tomorrow we're looking at an unstable freezing northerly at this timeframe -



- Gets messy again blowing up an Atlantic low and sinking our high. Im not buying this, the models haven't a clue what to do with the jetstream coming off the eastern seaboard US after +120hrs. More ups and downs coming - I do expect the colder northerly reload to succeed in the end though.

Meteorite58

The jet staying more Northerly up until around the 5th, thereafter it would look to me like it could take a more Southerly track and it would seem to become a bit more organised and stronger and perhaps start churning out the LP systems again ?



The end of the present GFS run showing depressions queuing up crossing the Atlantic well out in FI.



The end of the ECM run at + 240 showing a possible LP making inroads on the ridge over Ireland.

The tight isobars over Ireland would indicate the influence of the Jet I would think. Looks like a mild Sw'ly flow .

Kermit.de.frog

18z GFS has a snow event for Ireland this time next week.

sean555

If only.......

patneve2

GFS 18z is one of the best runs I have seen in a while...doubt it will end up like that

esposito

patneve2 wrote: »

GFS 18z is one of the best runs I have seen in a while...doubt it will end up like that

Of course it won't, it's the pub run and it's drunk :pac:

Danno

patneve2 wrote: »

GFS 18z is one of the best runs I have seen in a while...doubt it will end up like that

A good few days of lying snow from that -

*** IF *** it happens as the model says!

Meteorite58

If this came off it would bound to be a snow event. Totally different to the ECM, the intrigue goes on. Maybe that is what we need, a few LP's moving into Europe to displace and drag down the cold.

BLIZZARD7

18z is incredible, the sweet spot of that snow event would get 1 foot plus. Please let this be a new trend...

In the more reliable time-frames, this is a great run and is definitely on the track we want for a decent cold spell to develop.

JCX BXC

Lovely charts, nice to imagine it!

Wouldn't take it at face value though, know better at this stage!

arctictree

Those quickly developing LPs are very hard to predict a few days out, never mind a week. It'll probably be gone in the next run.

pistolpetes11

arctictree wrote: »

Those quickly developing LPs are very hard to predict a few days out, never mind a week. It'll probably be gone in the next run.

Its been the trend , dropping it , but they keep on coming back up , I think there is something brewing here , usually the idea is dropped and off we go in search again , but this time around the next run reels us back in .

The charts tonight are unreal , but I will expect a downgrade on them tomorrow as what on offer tonight , there wouldn't be much chat of 2010 any more , 2017 would be all the rage

Some thing not working on my image server for me to post charts :mad:

Gaoth Laidir

Until the ECM shows something then I'm not biting. The GFS is a joke of a model in comparison and is invariably the one that gets posted in this thread because of its outlandish swings and cold bias in northerly outbreaks.

hatrickpatrick

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Until the ECM shows something then I'm not biting. The GFS is a joke of a model in comparison and is invariably the one that gets posted in this thread because of its outlandish swings and cold bias in northerly outbreaks.

Not sure that's fair tbh, the GFS is posted more in FI threads because it goes much further out into FI than the ECM.

BLIZZARD7

UKMO pretty decent this morning.

00z GFS - BOOM



Last night's 18z for reference -



00z has -10c 850's over a lot of the country by +192hrs

BLIZZARD7

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Not sure that's fair tbh, the GFS is posted more in FI threads because it goes much further out into FI than the ECM.

Whilst I agree the ECM is generally a better all round model, The GFS gets referenced more because A. It runs 4 times a day. B. It shows every 3 hour movement. And.C as you say, it goes out a lot further into FI.

I seem to remember it calling the December 2010 spell ahead of all the other models, dropping it completely and then picking it back up again about 7 days out. I may remember that incorrectly though.