Werewolf XVI - Star Trek

tritium

The_Valeyard wrote: »

why do some memes work and not others?

Dunno was asking this earlier, so many of my excellent memes have been lost in space....:D

tritium

The_Valeyard wrote: »

F*ck this, im off to my quarters to sleep.


First person on the bridge can be first officer.

hello!!! still here!!!

Necro

tritium wrote: »

Ok folks. To make the best of a bad situation. We're not dead yet. First some possibilities- here are the scenarios I see

1) Digi is the real seer
in this case they either converted him or they didn't. Giving us either

Digi is seer and QB is bad
Digi is converted seer and QB is not bad
Digi is converted seer and QB is bad and being used to buy Digi deep cover


1) Digi is not the real seer. Then one of
QB is not bad
QB is bad and being used to buy Digi deep cover


In all of the above QB being good is not the best wolf outcome - it takes them close but not close enough. Therefor lynching QB should be our play tomorrow.

After that assuming she flips bad (and I think she will and has teed up for this) we're left with either
Digi is legit
Digi is turned
Digi was a wolf all along

I think best strategy here is to take Digi's seer read on QB at face value. Excluding the queen flip he the following possibilities for the following read
(I) he lies villager is a wolf and we mislynch then lynch him - last chance saloon for us but still winnable
(ii) he tells truth villager is villager and we have a safelist
(iii) he lies wolf is a villager - our biggest fear
(IV) He tells truth on wolf is wolf. So basically any wolf flip on his next peek is useful to us, any village flip not so much.

Basically we need to play a little logic game on the next seer peek.

Thoughts on this strategy?

I don't see any other move, unfortunately for QB. She's for the gallows next regardless.

I'm willing to disregard all I have said about trusting people so far. Need to come at this from a clean slate.

IF Digi is not converted - who?

My top 3:
Jayop (has gone AWOL)
Flush
Vale

Outside bets:
Barney

Barney92

Necrominus wrote: »

I don't see any other move, unfortunately for QB. She's for the gallows next regardless.

I'm willing to disregard all I have said about trusting people so far. Need to come at this from a clean slate.

IF Digi is not converted - who?

My top 3:
Jayop (has gone AWOL)
Flush
Vale

Outside bets:
Barney

I agree, I think QB is the correct move. Even if we are wrong we get Digi and then hopefully will be able to work out the rest.

If Digi wasn't turned then I'm not sure. Jayop/Trit probably not due to the double vote. They may not have wanted to risk it. That leads to MrsFD as the only other confirmed villager but is that obvious? So if not Digi, then I would reckon some outside of Jayop/Trit/MrsFD.

Necro

Also, if QB is in fact bad - Strawberry is evil too.

This could be leveled at me too. Both of us have defended her fairly in depth in the last 2 days.

I'm beginning to doubt myself. I was wrong about everything so far

tritium

So, some further thoughts

QB is the next munch

BG protects the seer tonight

I then suggest the following seer peeks based on my own suspicions after tonight (we can refine this as we go but a sequence would be good until we lose or can't trust the seer)

next seer peek is strawbs
following that is necro
assuming we're not dead then I'd go with yosser or vale

reveals may change this

and we follow a rule that wolf outcomes are viable, village outcomes mean very little - i.e. we actually debate evidence around the peek outcome

Necro

tritium wrote: »

So, some further thoughts

QB is the next munch

BG protects the seer tonight

I then suggest the following seer peeks based on my own suspicions after tonight (we can refine this as we go but a sequence would be good until we lose or can't trust the seer)

next seer peek is strawbs
following that is necro
assuming we're not dead then I'd go with yosser or vale

reveals may change this

and we follow a rule that wolf outcomes are viable, village outcomes mean very little - i.e. we actually debate evidence around the peek outcome

Our peeks are still curtailed by the fact that a good hit could be a queen. But yes, Strawberry or me for the next peek I agree.

y0ssar1an22

so WTF did everyone vote for kolido?

the odds of digi being the seer are pretty high, the odds of him peeking the queen are pretty low. we had to take digi's word for it

Necro

Grah. I wish I didn't have to be peeked. I know I'm good so no need but it does need to be done. I'm actually surprised I wasn't peeked already to be honest.

Necro

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

so WTF did everyone vote for kolido?

the odds of digi being the seer are pretty high, the odds of him peeking the queen are pretty low. we had to take digi's word for it

For me it was the timing of the reveal and the peek on Kolido.

tritium

Necrominus wrote: »

Grah. I wish I didn't have to be peeked. I know I'm good so no need but it does need to be done. I'm actually surprised I wasn't peeked already to be honest.

So far we're talking about peeking you in two peeks time....

Barney92

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

so WTF did everyone vote for kolido?

the odds of digi being the seer are pretty high, the odds of him peeking the queen are pretty low. we had to take digi's word for it

I voted for Kolido because I didn't believe digi. I thought it was a late reveal and also fit a theory I had that he was protecting the recruiter - Kolido. If you didn't believe digi then the odds of him peeking the queen were irrelevant.

y0ssar1an22

whats the reason for QB? i'm not following

tritium

So, my next question - the Shaman. Necro, what was your suspicion there again?

Necro

tritium wrote: »

So far we're talking about peeking you in two peeks time....

I know and I agree with your strategy just it would be a wasted peek that wouldn't clear me anyways. Assuming Digi is the seer and isn't converted and even lives that long

Digital Solitude

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

whats the reason for QB? i'm not following

She was peeked Evil

Ectoplasm

I didn't believe Digi due to my own paranoid conspiracy ravings.

tritium

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

whats the reason for QB? i'm not following

only possible votes tomorrow are digi or QB since digi peeked QB as bad.

QB vote gives us better options

Necro

tritium wrote: »

So, my next question - the Shaman. Necro, what was your suspicion there again?

I thought Vale was hinting at being the Shaman, or at least a RV. I'll find the posts for you in a minute.

Guffy

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

whats the reason for QB? i'm not following

Ah come on yoss are you following at all. Digi said qb was a wolf!!

y0ssar1an22

everyone that voted kolido:

Necro, Ecto, QB, Tritium, Barney, Grumpy, Strawberry, Jayop, Valeyard, MrsFlushdraw, sKeit

what can we take from that? nothing really unfortunately

y0ssar1an22

Guffy wrote: »

Ah come on yoss are you following at all. Digi said qb was a wolf!!

i'm back on track now

tritium

Necrominus wrote: »

I thought Vale was hinting at being the Shaman, or at least a RV. I'll find the posts for you in a minute.

Ok so vale you came back later and said you had no role. What was that all about given the call for digi to peek you?

Necro

Here Trit, the quotes making me think Vale was roled.

The_Valeyard wrote: »

No queenie flushmonster, not fabulous enough for that.

I'd remind you of rule 11. The mods have secrets.....


Bit like the inner light

The_Valeyard wrote: »

Can't explain just yet

And then his 'big reveal'... stupid Vale.

The_Valeyard wrote: »

Im no one,


wanted to see if I could poke holes in Digi and see what happened. Seer or faker. Tried to call a bluff.

Necro

The_Valeyard wrote: »

Lets see who digi peeks

see rule 11 in action.

Oh, and this gem after the lynch when I asked him to spill.

:mad::mad::mad::mad::mad:

Necro

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

everyone that voted kolido:

Necro, Ecto, QB, Tritium, Barney, Grumpy, Strawberry, Jayop, Valeyard, MrsFlushdraw, sKeit

what can we take from that? nothing really unfortunately

Well, the timing of the votes maybe.

QB was apparently confused yet... she's the third vote there???

Are votes done chronologically?? Maybe we can get some data on lynches from that.

I totally forgot this point till now.

tritium

Necrominus wrote: »

Here Trit, the quotes making me think Vale was roled.









And then his 'big reveal'... stupid Vale.

Ahhhh!!!

Vale, I think I understand

Can you tell us what it was?

Necro

Mollyb60 wrote: »

MOD CLARIFICATION

A question has been asked by a player about last night's lynch tally. Modulators can confirm that the votes posted are listed chronologically.

Can we garner data from this?? Who jumped on the wagons and when??

Did someone lie about when they voted???

y0ssar1an22

Necrominus wrote: »

Can we garner data from this?? Who jumped on the wagons and when??

Did someone lie about when they voted???

thats what i;m thinking, will be hard to ascertain though

Necro

Vale's gone to bed, Trit.

Can we garner data from the way I said above??