Werewolf XVI - Star Trek

Necro · 06-09-2017 10:38pm

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

thats what i;m thinking, will be hard to ascertain though

Easier on larger wagons like Kolidos, certainly.

But let's take a look from the start. Can someone post ALL lynch results or do I have to do it??

I want to analyse the Mick votes and the timings.

tritium · 06-09-2017 10:38pm

Necrominus wrote: »

Vale's gone to bed, Trit.

Can we garner data from the way I said above??

You mean about Vales stuff or the vote timings

Necro · 06-09-2017 10:39pm

tritium wrote: »

You mean about Vales stuff or the vote timings

Vote timings. We can grill Vale in the am. If necessary

tritium · 06-09-2017 10:41pm

Necrominus wrote: »

Vote timings. We can grill Vale in the am. If necessary

Dunno.

y0ssar1an22 · 06-09-2017 10:42pm

Necrominus wrote: »

Easier on larger wagons like Kolidos, certainly.

But let's take a look from the start. Can someone post ALL lynch results or do I have to do it??

I want to analyse the Mick votes and the timings.

i would but i'm in bed

Necro · 06-09-2017 10:43pm

WerewolfGM wrote: »

Vote Tally:

No Lynch – 3 Votes (MrsFlushdraw, Drumpot, Jayop)
Mick – 6 Votes (sKeith, Quickbeam, Beakerjoe, Sully, Kolido, Partjungle)
PartyJungle – 4 Votes (LordTSC, Guffy, Barney, Necro)
Mahamageehad – 2 Votes (Valeyard, Tritium)
Yossarian – 3 Votes (Ecto, Strawberry, Digi)
LordTSC – 1 Vote (PatrickStarr)
Strawberry – 1 Vote (Mahama)
Sullivo – 1 Vote (Yossar)
PatrickStarr – 1 Vote (Crosstown)
Did not vote - 2 - Grumpy, Mick

WerewolfGM wrote: »

LYNCH VOTE TALLY NIGHT 2

PatrickSTARR - 4 Votes (Mahamageehad, Crosstown, Lord TSC, Kolido)
Strawberry Milkshake – 3 Votes (Jayop, Ectoplasm, MrsFlushdraw)
Kolido - 2 Votes (sKeith, Strawberry Milkshake)
BeakerJoe – 2 Votes (Valeyard, GrumpyLumpy)
GrumpyLumpy – 2 Votes (PatrickSTARR, BeakerJoe)
Quickbeam – 1 Vote (Drumpot)
Yossarian – 1 Vote (Barney)
Digital Solitude - 1 Vote (Tritium)
Drumpot - 1 Vote (Quickbeam)
Valeyard – 1 Vote (Guffy)
SKeith – 1 Vote (Necro)
Crosstown – 1 Vote (Digi)
Jayop - 1 Vote (Yossarian)

WerewolfGM wrote: »

NIGHT 3 LYNCH VOTES:

Kolido – 11 Votes (Necro, Ecto, QB, Tritium, Barney, Grumpy, Strawberry, Jayop, Valeyard, MrsFlushdraw, sKeith)
Valeyard – 2 Votes (Kolido, Guffy)
Yossarian – 1 Vote (BeakerJoe)
Strawberry Milkshake – 1 Vote (Yossarian)
BeakerJoe – 1 Vote (Digi)

Here they are. I've got the coffee on. Now I'm gonna have to ascertain who voted when if they said at all

tritium · 06-09-2017 10:44pm

tritium wrote: »

So, some further thoughts

QB is the next munch

BG protects the seer tonight

I then suggest the following seer peeks based on my own suspicions after tonight (we can refine this as we go but a sequence would be good until we lose or can't trust the seer)

next seer peek is strawbs
following that is necro
assuming we're not dead then I'd go with yosser or vale

reveals may change this

and we follow a rule that wolf outcomes are viable, village outcomes mean very little - i.e. we actually debate evidence around the peek outcome

OK, tweaking the seer peek sequence in the original plan:
next seer peek is strawbs
following that is yosser
assuming we're not dead then I'd go with necro

reasoning is as follows. Necro, if you were a wolf I'd guess you're the queen, so better to peek you late if its an option. Vale has been removed because I realised something and I need to ask him about it tomorrow

tritium · 06-09-2017 10:45pm

Any objections to that?

Necro · 06-09-2017 10:45pm

None. Fine by me.

y0ssar1an22 · 06-09-2017 10:46pm

tritium wrote: »

OK, tweaking the seer peek sequence in the original plan:
next seer peek is strawbs
following that is yosser
assuming we're not dead then I'd go with necro

reasoning is as follows. Necro, if you were a wolf I'd guess you're the queen, so better to peek you late if its an option. Vale has been removed because I realised something and I need to ask him about it tomorrow

at the very least i thought i would be down on the list for peeking after tonight. dont waste 1 on me

y0ssar1an22 · 06-09-2017 10:46pm

tritium wrote: »

Any objections to that?

yes

tritium · 06-09-2017 10:48pm

Then give me the alternative sequence with your reasons?

y0ssar1an22 · 06-09-2017 10:50pm

tritium wrote: »

Then give me the alternative sequence with your reasons?

i'm not sure after SM. not me anyway. i will have a think about it

Jayop · 06-09-2017 10:51pm

The only way to trust Digi is to kill QB. Even if QB is a wolf it still doesn't clear him because he's super sneaky and wouldn't be beyond throwing a wolf under the bus to trick us.

If Digi wasn't recruited then I'd guess it was either MrsFD, Myself or Tritium with an outside bet on sKieth. Whomever of myself or tritium was the Elder should be able to prove they are innocent at the next lynch by using their extra vote. At that point they are the only safelisted villager.

At this point I'd still recommend us lynching people who haven't been safelisted because the odds are greater that that will be evil.

Necro · 06-09-2017 11:00pm

beakerjoe wrote: »

Out of my FFA I think Ill be voting for Michael. Just making it known on thread. Others should follow suit.

I just think he pushed teh no vote agenda too hard earlier, perhaps an alterior motive of him being a wolf rather than being a helpful villager.

beakerjoe wrote: »

I voted for him ages ago. Was the first to publicly state it. He pushed the no lynch agenda too hard for my liking

No fuuck off with your gifs.

Right. I haven't finished with the Mick vote yet. But here's something interesting.

Look at the order of votes.

sKeith, QB, BJ (as far as I've gotten).

Now, Beaker posts that he's going to vote for Mick at around 5.30pm. Fine. He IS the first to publicly state it.

So why are sKeith's and QB (the FFA compiler fwiw) before him.

sKeith's can be explained. He posts his FFA in two parts and then is offline till after the lynch - or doesn't post anyways.

QB is actively arguing with Mick about the validity of the no lynch. She also gets pissed when people don't vote inside the FFA later.

SO, praytell - why is HER vote in before Beaker's???

We had no idea of the FFA results until 7.30. Beaker is offline until after the lynch pretty much after he says he's voting for Mick.

I think this was an early bandwagon vote. QB is very possibly a wolf.

I want to check her timings with Kolido's at a later stage too.

sKeith · 06-09-2017 11:03pm

Necrominus wrote: »

Should BG protect Digi tonight? I think not.

I think he needs to be protected to get us another peek.

Necro · 06-09-2017 11:05pm

Necrominus wrote: »

Right. I haven't finished with the Mick vote yet. But here's something interesting.

Look at the order of votes.

sKeith, QB, BJ (as far as I've gotten).

Now, Beaker posts that he's going to vote for Mick at around 5.30pm. Fine. He IS the first to publicly state it.

So why are sKeith's and QB (the FFA compiler fwiw) before him.

sKeith's can be explained. He posts his FFA in two parts and then is offline till after the lynch - or doesn't post anyways.

QB is actively arguing with Mick about the validity of the no lynch. She also gets pissed when people don't vote inside the FFA later.

SO, praytell - why is HER vote in before Beaker's???

We had no idea of the FFA results until 7.30. Beaker is offline until after the lynch pretty much after he says he's voting for Mick.

I think this was an early bandwagon vote. QB is very possibly a wolf.

I want to check her timings with Kolido's at a later stage too.

The other alternative is that BJ lied about when he put in his vote on Mick.
But I don't think that's the case.

sKeith, what time did you vote Mick at roughly on Monday? Doesn't have to be accurate to the second or anything.

tritium · 06-09-2017 11:06pm

sKeith wrote: »

I think he needs to be protected to get us another peek.

^^^^ this - whether he's turned or not there's benefit to looking for another peek

sKeith · 06-09-2017 11:08pm

Necrominus wrote: »

The other alternative is that BJ lied about when he put in his vote on Mick.
But I don't think that's the case.

sKeith, what time did you vote Mick at roughly on Monday? Doesn't have to be accurate to the second or anything.

gimme a few, it was when i got infrurieated, so i'll recognise the post.

sKeith · 06-09-2017 11:09pm

and after they mod notice that we could multi-vote.

sKeith · 06-09-2017 11:12pm

Some time around this post timeline.

sKeith wrote: »

i started with 19/24 villager but maths is easier if we use 5/24 chance to hit wolf, just didn't change label when i changed odds around.

I'm not buying this.

5/24 chance of hitting a villager now.
if we give up this chance we are weaker.

do we wait until its 5/10 before we start lynching?

you are giving up roles of the dice willing with no gain.

Necro · 06-09-2017 11:16pm

sKeith wrote: »

Some time around this post timeline.

Yep, that adds up. QB was after you, then BJ.

QB does her FFA at 6.20. You follow shortly after.

BJ said he was voting for Mick at 17.53.

Why would QB vote for Mick so early??

Necro · 06-09-2017 11:18pm

quickbeam wrote: »

#FFA1

PJ - initially took his "I am Q" as a joke, but his subsequent posts have been weird, eg, his reply to Keith about being the only one to comment about it (post 314) - like, what was he hoping to achieve by the claim? And his saying he'll vote for himself (post 681). He also may have outed a potentially roled player, which at the very least is a silly move.

Trit - because it's about time he was a baddie!!! Plus his good list seemed a bit contrived, especially for the inclusion of some people that I'd have as neutral at best at this early stage. On the other hand, he's been quite vocal about voting for lynch instead of no-lynch which would edge him slightly back to the good side.

Mick - jumped on Barney's (IMO horrible idea) of a no-vote, and is one of the most prominent advocates of it still even after Barney has rejected the idea.

Currently leaning towards Mick out of the three.

She says 'leaning' towards Mick. But by the chronological order she has already cast her vote if BJ is to be believed.

tritium · 06-09-2017 11:21pm

Necrominus wrote: »

She says 'leaning' towards Mick. But by the chronological order she has already cast her vote if BJ is to be believed.

just another reason to lynch QB so

Jayop · 06-09-2017 11:25pm

QB gotta hang.

Necro · 06-09-2017 11:28pm

So drained after that. I'll take a look at others at a later date. Maybe the PJ ones or those following BJ's vote on Mick.

Unless some other kind villager wants to help a Necro out??

You're looking for an on thread announcement of a vote, if prevalent.

Correlate that to the order and if someone is out of place, we might get another wolf this way.

Might.

tritium · 06-09-2017 11:30pm

Hey Digi, while we're asking. Did the Borg convert you?

No harm asking

Digital Solitude · 06-09-2017 11:42pm

tritium wrote: »

Hey Digi, while we're asking. Did the Borg convert you?

No harm asking

No PM yet anyways (y)

sKeith · 06-09-2017 11:51pm

200 posts per hour after digi came out
3.33 posts per minute or 1 every 18 seconds.

Necro · 06-09-2017 11:51pm

sKeith wrote:

200 posts per hour after digi came out 3.33 posts per minute or 1 every 18 seconds.

How many were mine :pac:

Werewolf XVI - Star Trek

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