Werewolf XVI - Star Trek

patrickSTARR

On one hand a no lynch vote means we don't lose the game to Q on night 1, it also means we don't kill a villager. But we lose the chance to vote for a wolf.

On the other if we lynch someone we can kill one of our own, give the game to Q , but perhaps kill a wolf.

Drumpot

Deleted User wrote: »

His odds get better of being lynched everytime we lynch a villager also.

If we lynch tonight and wolfs dont kill him his odds tomoro are 1/22 no lynch is 1/23

On the flipside, the less villagers there are the more likely the wolves are to get him .

tritium

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Lads we are odds against to hit a wolf even if Q wasn't in play no lynch would be the best option to start as you dont take any villagers out.

Lynches kill a way higher % of villagers then wolfs

This makes no sense- never lynching wins more games for wolves than mislynching. Mislynches also have value, wolves have no reason to do anything in a game with no lynches and two free turns for the wolves could devastate our power roles

Necro

patrickSTARR wrote: »

On one hand a no lynch vote means we don't lose the game to Q on night 1, it also means we don't kill a villager. But we lose the chance to vote for a wolf.

On the other if we lynch someone we can kill one of our own, give the game to Q , but perhaps kill a wolf.

The other benefit of voting to lynch somebody is that we can use info on the voting patterns at a later date. No lynch is a waste.

If I get lynched for example, you can see who voted for me without reason and narrow the suspect pool down for peeking.

But I'd prefer to not be lynched

Necro

Also, BJ have you finalised your FFA yet? You're dancing around from one foot to the other on one hand pushing and agreeing with a Lordy/Necro wolf team yet at the same time stating we won't be on your FFA. Have you shaved recently?

You're looking a bit hairy right now

Drumpot

Necrominus wrote: »

The other benefit of voting to lynch somebody is that we can use info on the voting patterns at a later date. No lynch is a waste.

If I get lynched for example, you can see who voted for me without reason and narrow the suspect pool down for peeking.

But I'd prefer to not be lynched

Exactly.

if we have a free for all vote, people can vote for whoever they want and there is a chance a clue is left . . No lynch means we lose and gain nothing . .

I didn't join the Millenium falcon crew to not take risks ....

crosstownk

Is the no lynch option just delaying the inevitable? Yes, it eliminates the Q factor but eventually we will have to start lynching in order to get the numbers down and narrow the focus.

The best advantage that I can see is that we put off tonight's random vote and postpone it until tomorrow where hopefully it won't be as random.

Digital Solitude

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I cant explain it very well but it makes perfect sense in my head.

The most basic and easy thing for me to explain is we cannot lose tonight with a no lynch.

If we pride ourselves being any good at this game keeping the village numbers as high as possible while gathering info is the best.

Obviously there is a tipping point along the way as a no lynch every day means we lose but for the first 2-3 days a no lynch is in our favour.

Again, I disagree. Take just Q for a moment, as its what you're playing off.

Lynch all the time, 1/25 chance of him being lynched, 1/20 for munch, 1/23 for Lynch, 1/18 for munch, 1/21 for lynch, 1/16 for munch

If we don't lynch until D3, we have a 1/21 chance of him being munched, 1/20 and then 1/19 D3. 1/23 chance of lynching him then a 1/17 for munch

So by lynching every night, there's a slightly higher chance of him being munched, but a higher chance of lynching him compared to D3. D1 and D2 are statistically our safest lynches.

I'll have to write this down but I think its correct.

Am I forgetting something?

Also PJ should be shot

Necro

Drumpot wrote: »

Exactly.

if we have a free for all vote, people can vote for whoever they want and there is a chance a clue is left . . No lynch means we lose and gain nothing . .

I didn't join the Millenium falcon crew to not take risks ....

Drumpot

Necrominus wrote: »

I already told Vale to fix my phaser to sarcasm . . Might get him to look at it again . . .

The_Valeyard

Necrominus wrote: »

#FFA1:

1. Mick - Something not sitting right with me on 2 fronts. Number 1 was him cosying up to the now deceased Robyn earlier this morning, and Number 2 was jumping all over the no lynch strategy. It's not much, but it's whats I got for now.

2. PJ - Very very suss. No explanation of the 'I am Q. Don't lynch me.' post yesterday. Could be a wolf trying to masquerade as a villager.

3. This is a toughie. I'm gonna go with Quickbeam. I'm getting a very dodgy vibe out of them. It's a real gut feeling but just not sitting right.

Oh. And I think Vale is Q. Which explains a little bit of the 'Captain's Log' posts etc and general mayhem vibe he's portraying. Could be wrong but that's my call for now.

Not Q, I wish I was. I'd be playing a whole other style if Q. I really should be Q. I'd be an awesome Q.

Necro

Drumpot wrote: »

I already told Vale to fix my phaser to sarcasm . . Might get him to look at it again . . .

tritium

tritium wrote: »

This makes no sense- never lynching wins more games for wolves than mislynching. Mislynches also have value, wolves have no reason to do anything in a game with no lynches and two free turns for the wolves could devastate our power roles

Im no saying no lynch all the way to death, im saying no lynch untill we gain more info we have fook all to go on and randomly throwing votes on whoever in small batches increases the likely hood of a q kill or a roled villager kill also.

If we are going lynching people it needs to be in stritch races with good info.

I'm done with the topic now as I feel Im spamming and taking away from the thread but I will be voting no lynch

The_Valeyard

Necrominus wrote: »

beakerjoe

Necrominus wrote: »

Also, BJ have you finalised your FFA yet? You're dancing around from one foot to the other on one hand pushing and agreeing with a Lordy/Necro wolf team yet at the same time stating we won't be on your FFA. Have you shaved recently?

You're looking a bit hairy right now

Oh please, get real. I just chimed in on a point that you made when you and PS where taking over the thread.

You sure seem defensive.

My ffa -


Vale - Openly pushing earlier to be raced. I feel hes a wolf, trying to pose as Q. I dont think Q would be so open about being raced for fear he'd be caught.

Mick - Patrick made the point that he was reserved and altered his posting style, that plus him pushing the no lynch agenda (that benefits teh woves too much IMO) gets him only list

Trit - Hes openly called others good (not that hes the only one). However, he hasnt given any reason why some one his list are good (Guffy, PJ). I dont liek the idea of leaning people good. (Either unknown or bad IMO until proven otherwise). Trit as given no reasons why he chose the good lads on his list. Is he trying to protect a wolf?

Kolido

Are we having a vote for lynch/no lynch so we know whats happening or is everyone going at it alone tonight?

beakerjoe

Also Patrick Starr is my Q for now.

Necro

Kolido wrote: »

Are we having a vote for lynch/no lynch so we know whats happening or is everyone going at it alone tonight?

Seems that way. (The going it alone part)

Baggly

*mod note*

Gang we have had one person come clean by pm about forgetting the no edit rule. They have owned up on thread too and have been given a severe warning but please let this post serve as a reminder to all of the no edit rule.

No further warnings or chances will be given, no matter the context.

Terrible terrible punishments await any who do not heed this post. Uriel will be leaving his punishment strapon in place just in case anyone else gets forgetful.

beakerjoe

beakerjoe wrote: »

Oh please, get real. I just chimed in on a point that you made when you and PS where taking over the thread.

You sure seem defensive.

My ffa -


Vale - Openly pushing earlier to be raced. I feel hes a wolf, trying to pose as Q. I dont think Q would be so open about being raced for fear he'd be caught.

Mick - Patrick made the point that he was reserved and altered his posting style, that plus him pushing the no lynch agenda (that benefits teh woves too much IMO) gets him only list

Trit - Hes openly called others good (not that hes the only one). However, he hasnt given any reason why some one his list are good (Guffy, PJ). I dont liek the idea of leaning people good. (Either unknown or bad IMO until proven otherwise). Trit as given no reasons why he chose the good lads on his list. Is he trying to protect a wolf?

My posting style is A a very Meta reason for putting me in but also as you dont know it a really weak reason to put me in a FFA based on another players assumption. I'd peek/shoot you if I could as thats weak as shiat

sKeith

I edited post number #696. It was a mistake and just as i said in post #702.
I pm'ed pter and he gave me punishment, and luckily it is not too depraved.

Again, I'm sorry for breaking such an important rule.

I am a little girl scout don't touch my cookie or I will kill my pet seagulls.

Drumpot

The_Valeyard wrote: »

Digital Solitude

beakerjoe wrote: »

I could. Like I looked at you calling 2 other villagers good and feel that could be a wolfy move, cosying up to two vocal posters.

Your not top of my list thus far, but calling someone good doesnt sit well with me.

So BJ can you back this up? It's the reason I'm voting you for tonight, along with the fact that you just want to bounce around and add to everyone else's theories or just say "Hmm this post is suss" while misinterpreting it.

Who are you suss of, and who do you think is trying to help the village?

Digital Solitude

Digital Solitude wrote: »

Again, I disagree. Take just Q for a moment, as its what you're playing off.

Lynch all the time, 1/25 chance of him being lynched, 1/20 for munch, 1/23 for Lynch, 1/18 for munch, 1/21 for lynch, 1/16 for munch

If we don't lynch until D3, we have a 1/21 chance of him being munched, 1/20 and then 1/19 D3. 1/23 chance of lynching him then a 1/17 for munch

So by lynching every night, there's a slightly higher chance of him being munched, but a higher chance of lynching him compared to D3. D1 and D2 are statistically our safest lynches.

I'll have to write this down but I think its correct.

Am I forgetting something?

Also PJ should be shot

we cannot lose the game night 1 if we dont lynch we can if we do so is that not an infintably better option?

Baggly

*mod note*

It would be helpful for sk's rehabilitation if we could all point and laugh at him.

patrickSTARR

Necrominus wrote: »

My specific, prominent gut or just a general comment on gut feelings???:pac::pac::pac::pac::pac:

Ah look, vote for me if you like. I'm not arguing this point all evening.

My gut has served me well in a previous universe, so Ill trust mine.

I wouldn't hold the same credibility with your own gut.

I do enjoy reading others FFAs though and others suspicions. It may make me adjust my voting.

Necro

sKeith wrote: »

I edited post number #696. It was a mistake and just as i said in post #702.
I pm'ed pter and he gave me punishment, and luckily it is not too depraved.

Again, I'm sorry for breaking such an important rule.

I am a little girl scout don't touch my cookie or I will kill my pet seagulls.

Barney92

For what it's worth I will be voting for someone today. My no lynch would only have worked if we had early agreement and could conduct the on thread voting in plenty of time. It'd never work at this stage. I am not in favour of a no lynch just for the sake of it.

Lord TSC

Deleted User wrote: »

we cannot lose the game night 1 if we dont lynch we can if we do so is that not an infintably better option?

You get the problem though that this issue will exist tomorrow evening too? Unless everyone can come to some consensus on who Q is, and hope the wolves do him or we use a bullet on them, its kicking the can down the road...

Necro

Barney92 wrote: »

For what it's worth I will be voting for someone today. My no lynch would only have worked if we had early agreement and could conduct the on thread voting in plenty of time. It'd never work at this stage. I am not in favour of a no lynch just for the sake of it.

Just on this. Even in the event of a vote for no lynch FFAs should be posted. Otherwise we have the sum total of FCUK ALL to go on apart from me, BJ and PSTARR taking chunks off each other.

Think me and Lordy are a team? Put it in the FFA.
Think PSTARR or BJ are wolves? Do the same.

It will all help later.