Werewolf XVI - Star Trek

quickbeam

Right, all caught up after a day AFK.

I'm hugely suprised at the support for no lynch on here. It's a ridiculous idea. I'd nearly be sure that anyone advocating it is wolf, though there are more than 5 on that list so they can't ALL be wolf. I'd hazard that at least some of them are.

I'll be voting for somebody. Just not sure yet.

Lord TSC

Lord TSC wrote: »

You get the problem though that this issue will exist tomorrow evening too? Unless everyone can come to some consensus on who Q is, and hope the wolves do him or we use a bullet on them, its kicking the can down the road...

I said there is a tipping point as if we go no lynch every night we 100% lose the game but tonight isn't it or tomoro imo

quickbeam

quickbeam wrote: »

Right, all caught up after a day AFK.

I'm hugely suprised at the support for no lynch on here. It's a ridiculous idea. I'd nearly be sure that anyone advocating it is wolf, though there are more than 5 on that list so they can't ALL be wolf. I'd hazard that at least some of them are.

I'll be voting for somebody. Just not sure yet.

Nice one random votes in small batches is the perfect way for the villager to go. Increases out chances of killing roled players or Q.

Remember q can vote for himself so even if 2 manage to jump on him today 3 votes could get him over the line.

I'm done i'm done

Step away from the computer Micaklus

Necro

Ah, QB. Nice of you to join us.

Could you explain this comment a little more for me please? It's the main thing that has me suss of you right now. (I get what you're implying, just don't like the wording)

quickbeam wrote: »

Ehhh, no! I'm wearing the wrong colour.

Digital Solitude

[Deleted User] wrote: »

we cannot lose the game night 1 if we dont lynch we can if we do so is that not an infintably better option?

Long term, its a worse option. Tonight is our best chance of lynching and not hitting Q, along with the info we garner.

Barney92

Necrominus wrote: »

Just on this. Even in the event of a vote for no lynch FFAs should be posted. Otherwise we have the sum total of FCUK ALL to go on apart from me, BJ and PSTARR taking chunks off each other.

Think me and Lordy are a team? Put it in the FFA.
Think PSTARR or BJ are wolves? Do the same.

It will all help later.

Oh yeah, do FFAs. I'm all in favour of a lynch at this stage. FFAs should be posted by those voting no lynch anyway. It gives us some information. I'd be suspicious of people voting no lynch and not providing any suspicions themselves.

Even if you only have loose suspicions I think the FFA is still worthwhile to do.

beakerjoe

Digital Solitude wrote: »

So BJ can you back this up? It's the reason I'm voting you for tonight, along with the fact that you just want to bounce around and add to everyone else's theories or just say "Hmm this post is suss" while misinterpreting it.

Who are you suss of, and who do you think is trying to help the village?

I don't like posters putting other posters in a "probably good pile". It can affect others judgment while you have no reason to think so many or good on day 1.


If you are a wolf, its can be a few things


1. You are a wolf trying to keep another wolf clear of suspicion.

2. Your a wolf trying to cosy up to other village posters using the "I think your good, so therefore I am good" approach."

Your reasoning for voting for me is weak. I curious. I like to see others theories and elaborate on them and discuss them. Reactions to said posts can be fasinating and tell you a lot about a poster and where I may think their alligence lie.

Now your not the only one to do this, but I find it odd at day 1 to assume some are good.

quickbeam

Necrominus wrote: »

Ah, QB. Nice of you to join us.

Could you explain this comment a little more for me please? It's the main thing that has me suss of you right now. (I get what you're implying, just don't like the wording)

MrsF mentioned going on a jaunt. Redshirts get killed on jaunts, and I wasn't keen to be cannon fodder so declined her offer. Was trying to be subtle (maybe too much), was trying to be funny (probably not enough!). That's all.

Kolido

If the no lynch is for a fear of hitting q then its rediculas. We wont know if q was lynched, shot, or munched until the game is over. He will be hanging over our choices the whole game.

I will be voting for someone tonight.

#FFA

Mick - mainly for pushing to no lynch agenda, both earlier today and still now
Strawbs - suggested using bullets early on
Flushy - same as strawbs

Necro

quickbeam wrote: »

MrsF mentioned going on a jaunt. Redshirts get killed on jaunts, and I wasn't keen to be cannon fodder so declined her offer. Was trying to be subtle (maybe too much), was trying to be funny (probably not enough!). That's all.

Speaking of Flushy, she was a little too happy and quick to toss her name down into the 'No Lynch' pile....

beakerjoe

Out of my FFA I think Ill be voting for Michael. Just making it known on thread. Others should follow suit.

I just think he pushed teh no vote agenda too hard earlier, perhaps an alterior motive of him being a wolf rather than being a helpful villager.

Digital Solitude

Digital Solitude wrote: »

Long term, its a worse option. Tonight is our best chance of lynching and not hitting Q, along with the info we garner.

I think your wrong dude tbh.

we cant lose the game if we dont lynch him so lets say we lynch every night

its 1/25+1/23+1/21+1/19 etc

But no lynch is 0+0+0 untill we start lynching

Where are the ****ing mathes people

Barney92

beakerjoe wrote: »

Out of my FFA I think Ill be voting for Michael. Just making it known on thread. Others should follow suit.

I just think he pushed teh no vote agenda too hard earlier, perhaps an alterior motive of him being a wolf rather than being a helpful villager.

I could be wrong but I think one of the points of an ffa is so that the wolves don't know exactly who everyone is voting for. Makes it harder for them to plan. So I don't think people should reveal exactly who they will vote for.

Necro

How many FFAs is that now?

PSTARR, mine, Beaker's, Kolido.... Am I missing anyone?? Could do with a few more coming in before 7....

sKeith

Deleted User wrote: »

I think your wrong dude tbh.

we cant lose the game if we dont lynch him so lets say we lynch every night

its 1/25+1/23+1/21+1/19 etc

But no lynch is 0+0+0 untill we start lynching

Where are the ****ing mathes people

You are giving too much weight to the 1/24 and giving the 5/24 a free ride.

y0ssar1an22

Kolido wrote: »

If the no lynch is for a fear of hitting q then its rediculas. We wont know if q was lynched, shot, or munched until the game is over. He will be hanging over our choices the whole game.

I will be voting for someone tonight.

#FFA

Mick - mainly for pushing to no lynch agenda, both earlier today and still now
Strawbs - suggested using bullets early on
Flushy - same as strawbs

this is not the reason for me. my reason is there is too high a chance of hitting villager - 75%.

how do you feel about my reason for voting no lycnh?

Lord TSC

I've got two names right now. Struggling for a third. There's one I can put down but I've not decided if they are acting wolfie or just over-eager in their villageriness...

tritium

Digital Solitude wrote: »

Again, I disagree. Take just Q for a moment, as its what you're playing off.

Lynch all the time, 1/25 chance of him being lynched, 1/20 for munch, 1/23 for Lynch, 1/18 for munch, 1/21 for lynch, 1/16 for munch

If we don't lynch until D3, we have a 1/21 chance of him being munched, 1/20 and then 1/19 D3. 1/23 chance of lynching him then a 1/17 for munch

So by lynching every night, there's a slightly higher chance of him being munched, but a higher chance of lynching him compared to D3. D1 and D2 are statistically our safest lynches.

I'll have to write this down but I think its correct.

Am I forgetting something?

Also PJ should be shot

Not sure on the numbers but your general point is correct.

More importantly this is choice between the village dying with our boots on, killing wolves or meekly letting them munch us because Q might be around. No offence, I want to win, but if I cant I'd rather lose to Q while going down fighting than surrender to the wolves.

Tldr: no lynch is putting the village on a platter. Thats not a strategy I believe in

Necro

sKeith wrote: »

You are giving too much weight to the 1/24 and giving the 5/24 a free ride.

This. The focus on Q is astonishing. We have five wolves out there who we need to kill to win, and we're gonna throw away our best opportunity at narrowing down a list at a 24/1 shot that we lynch Q.

We know the risks with lynching. Yes, we might hit a villager. This gives us data.

Yes, we might hit a roled goodie. I assume they would have the knowledge to indicate this to us before they were lynched.

We also might hit a wolf. That's a damn good thing.

Drumpot

Deleted User wrote: »

Nice one random votes in small batches is the perfect way for the villager to go. Increases out chances of killing roled players or Q.

Remember q can vote for himself so even if 2 manage to jump on him today 3 votes could get him over the line.

I'm done i'm done

Step away from the computer Micaklus

If q votes for himself he will be found out. . I actually remember somebody posted a few pages back that they would vote for themselves, anybody remember this?

Necro

patrickSTARR wrote: »

My gut has served me well in a previous universe, so Ill trust mine.

I wouldn't hold the same credibility with your own gut.

I do enjoy reading others FFAs though and others suspicions. It may make me adjust my voting.

Time to stop trusting that gut of yours if you're so sure about me:P:P:P

I'm good.

quickbeam

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

this is not the reason for me. my reason is there is too high a chance of hitting villager - 75%.

how do you feel about my reason for voting no lycnh?

So what, wait until the wolves have munched 20 of our villagers and then lynch because we've then a 50% chance of hitting a wolf??

Makes no sense. First day lynch is ALWAYS a risk, but the village can't win by not trying to kill wolves.

Necro

Drumpot wrote: »

If q votes for himself he will be found out. . I actually remember somebody posted a few pages back that they would vote for themselves, anybody remember this?

Partyjungle. The same person who said they were Q....

tritium

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I think your wrong dude tbh.

we cant lose the game if we dont lynch him so lets say we lynch every night

its 1/25+1/23+1/21+1/19 etc

But no lynch is 0+0+0 untill we start lynching

Where are the ****ing mathes people

Every lynch we miss gives the wolves an advantage. At the moment. There are 5 wolves. On turn 3 if we miss the recruiter there will be 6. Skip the lynchs and we're 3 down, they're 1 up and we have zero info cause they dont need to give us anything in that situation.

y0ssar1an22

Drumpot wrote: »

If q votes for himself he will be found out. . I actually remember somebody posted a few pages back that they would vote for themselves, anybody remember this?

pj

quickbeam

Drumpot wrote: »

If q votes for himself he will be found out. . I actually remember somebody posted a few pages back that they would vote for themselves, anybody remember this?

PJ. Who's being odd this game!

tritium

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

this is not the reason for me. my reason is there is too high a chance of hitting villager - 75%.

how do you feel about my reason for voting no lycnh?

You're Q arent you?

y0ssar1an22

quickbeam wrote: »

So what, wait until the wolves have munched 20 of our villagers and then lynch because we've then a 50% chance of hitting a wolf??

Makes no sense. First day lynch is ALWAYS a risk, but the village can't win by not trying to kill wolves.

skipping night 1 lynch should only help the village (that is if we lynch a villager-which maths says we will).
lets be honest here, night 1 lynch is always a clsuter****, and as far as i can remember (dreaming of other universes), no good info was ever garnered from night 1 lynch

Kolido

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

this is not the reason for me. my reason is there is too high a chance of hitting villager - 75%.

how do you feel about my reason for voting no lycnh?

That is more feasable, for the the first night at least. I'll be still voting for someone though.

y0ssar1an22

tritium wrote: »

You're Q arent you?

no but you might be