Major Hurricane Irma

BumperD

Inquitus wrote: »

The 72h Euro has this one going right up the middle of Florida from the south and strengthening to landfall, it's about as bad as it can be.

If that comes to pass, and that's still an if at this stage, it would be the costliest storm in history I reckon.

irishgeo

traco wrote: »

Monday position

thats going to be carnage if it pans out like that. got family in florida.

Gaoth Laidir

BumperD wrote: »

If that comes to pass, and that's still an if at this stage, it would be the costliest storm in history I reckon.

CNN announced it would be $138BN

Stheno

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

CNN announced it would be $138BN

Good God.

How long before the hurricane plays itself out?

irishgeo

we can safely assume, the name irma will be retired

Gaoth Laidir

Looks like some big weakening has taken place in the last recon? Only 113 knots in the NE eyewall.

harr

Has it changed to the west a little since last update ? I taught they were fairly sure it was going to pass close but running along the east coast but a little further out...I know it will more than likely change again before Monday .

traco

irishgeo wrote: »

thats going to be carnage if it pans out like that. got family in florida.

Total disaster. I managed to get the Hurricane shutters up on the house and thought I was going to dodge a bullet. 3 miles inland from the gulf.

Friends are hunkering down in the house but with this track I don't know what to think about that now. I guess it's safer than their places anyway. But that's a relative thing if this track plays out.

It's going to be a long weekend for me, all I can do is sit and watch.

Gaoth Laidir

Weakening also confirmed by the multiplatform windfield analysis.

harr

traco wrote: »

Total disaster. I managed to get the Hurricane shutters up on the house and thought I was going to dodge a bullet. 3 miles inland from the gulf.

Friends are hunkering down in the house but with this track I don't know what to think about that now. I guess it's safer than their places anyway. But that's a relative thing if this track plays out.

It's going to be a long weekend for me, all I can do is sit and watch.

Stay safe, any chance you could still evacuate at this stage? Some predicted paths still have skimming the east coast.

http://www.beachcamsusa.com/categories/hurricane-irma-webcams?page=1

on Florida section, but can choose any State

harr

Rightwing wrote: »

Beats me how idiots go to florida this time of year. Suppose we can get a laugh off them if nothing else.

Ahh would you stop, it's any number of areas and countries where you could get caught out not just Florida the hurricane season is fairly long.
If we all taught the same we would never go on anywhere on holiday.

NIMAN

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

CNN announced it would be $138BN

Was the Houston damage not said to be $250bn?

Rightwing

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

CNN announced it would be $138BN

They are only plucking figures from the air. No one knows at this stage what the bill will be.

Gaoth Laidir

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Weakening also confirmed by the multiplatform windfield analysis.

Good news if true. 2pm (7pm here) public advisory still indicating winds of 175 mph though. 10 pm forecast discussion will be important to see if this weakening trend will be confirmed. The eye approaching the Turks & Caicos Islands on the latest animated imagery appears to go from circular to a slightly ragged appearance in the last few frames.

cherryghost

I think the weakening is expected but there will be eyewall cycles once it reaches the warmer water again.

pad199207

Small bit of weakening expected until more restrengthening before landfall in Southern Florida.

I wouldn't be surprised if this makes landfall into southern Florida as a Cat 5 storm.
Latest forecasts showing worst case scenario for the Miami Area.

NIMAN

Rightwing wrote: »

They are only plucking figures from the air. No one knows at this stage what the bill will be.

How can you tell what the damage will cost when it hasn't been caused yet?

And how so precise? $138bn, why not 140, 145?

Rikand

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Looks like some big weakening has taken place in the last recon? Only 113 knots in the NE eyewall.

I saw it reported that it went through an ERC earlier (though i cant find the link now). That could be the cause of it

Meteorite58

Very likely to intensify over warm waters.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905861946167238656

https://twitter.com/NASAClimate/status/905855482501279745

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905866230124437505


https://twitter.com/spann/status/905857613329563648

cherryghost

cherryghost wrote: »

I think the weakening is expected but there will be eyewall cycles once it reaches the warmer water again.

Yep. The forecaster on the Weather Channel saying the water immediately south of Florida will be warmer and wind shear is expected to continue to be light. If it tracks on the west of its projected path it could interact with Cuba which might cause some weakening.

Icepick

Turks and Caicos Islands, The Bahamas and very likely large parts of Florida will be destroyed and humanity can only watch.


Also, this is what you call a traffic jam.

Chris_5339762

I've always wanted to go to the Florida Keys, heres hoping it doesn't get wrecked purely for my selfish reasons alone

BumperD

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

CNN announced it would be $138BN

Judging by the path/ total value of risks, that figure looks very light.

NIMAN

That picture is like something out of one of those Armageddon movies.

harr

Forecasters telling people not to get complacent with it weakening at the moment the warmer waters nearer Florida could still see it hit as a cat 4/5 and it's looking likely it's shifting west even though the euro chart still has it slightly east..

Storm 10

Sky news Jose upgraded to Cat 3

josip

Storm 10 wrote: »

Sky news Jose upgraded to Cat 3

Thankfully only the Barbudans and Bermudans look likely to be seriously affected by Jose if it stays on track.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/204055.shtml?cone

As for Hose B...

fryup

three hurricanes lining up, surely this proof of global warming

hope Trump gets his head out of arse and sees it for what it is

Rougies

Icepick wrote: »

This was hurricane Rita in 2005. There are lot of fake Irma videos and photos doing the rounds.