Major Hurricane Irma

sideswipe

Some of those pictures of the aftermath are truly shocking. It's hard to comprehend that level of destructive power, it's like a giant tornado hundreds of mile across!

I'll think twice before complaining about our weather again!

Akrasia

For the few people who don't know about this site
Check it out, it's amazing to see all 3 storms and how they interact with each other

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-69.25,20.65,616

You can change the filters to see different data

harr

https://fl511.com/list/cctv?start=0&length=10&order%5Bi%5D=2&order%5Bdir%5D=asc&search=%20Miami%20
Traffic cameras

Mrs cockett

Very little being said on news about Cuba. My daughter is on holiday there and I haven't heard from her since Wednesday.

Cantona's Collars

Mrs cockett wrote: »

Very little being said on news about Cuba. My daughter is on holiday there and I haven't heard from her since Wednesday.

It hasn't really started to hit Cuba.Even yesterday the weather there was Sunny. Cuba won't suffer a direct hit as it's tracking just north of it.

Storm 10

My God the damage is unreal, this video is from the British Virgin Islands, Pity Fox News is gone from Sky they provided brilliant coverage. RTE coverage of this historic event is pathetic ,more of the usual stuff penalty points, politics etc.

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-latin-america-41200999/like-nothing-i-have-ever-known

BillyBobBS

Only 2 miles an hour off a Cat 5 now.

FastFullBack

Storm 10 wrote: »

My God the damage is unreal, this video is from the British Virgin Islands, Pity Fox News is gone from Sky they provided brilliant coverage. RTE coverage of this historic event is pathetic ,more of the usual stuff penalty points, politics etc.

http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-latin-america-41200999/like-nothing-i-have-ever-known

You can watch live streams of the weather channel on YouTube if that's any good to you...

Inquitus

BillyBobBS wrote: »

Only 2 miles an hour off a Cat 5 now.

EWRC is still not completed, would expect it to strengthen back up to Cat 5 when that is done as it feeds off the warm water off of Cuba and the Keys.

Oneiric 3

Excellent short video here from the Weather Channel explaining how the differing hurricane category scales impact on common structures.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqfExHpvLRY

MJohnston

Is there a good understanding of how Jose and Irma interact with each other? Just looking at the Nullschool wind animations, you could almost imagine that Jose is doing some 'pre-acceleration' of the wind speeds that Irma then picks up and intensifies further - but I wouldn't know how likely that is to be close to truth?

Oneiric 3

Storm 10 wrote: »

RTE coverage of this historic event is pathetic ,more of the usual stuff [/URL]

RTE are pathetic full stop. They are embarrassingly inept on practically everything.

Oneiric 3

Latest EC projection & spread for Florida. (00z Monday)




Potentially very serious impact but subject to twists and turns in the meantime.

Ultimate Seduction

Storm 10 wrote:

My God the damage is unreal, this video is from the British Virgin Islands, Pity Fox News is gone from Sky they provided brilliant coverage. RTE coverage of this historic event is pathetic ,more of the usual stuff penalty points, politics etc.

I hate rte as much as anyone, but come on. If they majorly covered this they'd have people screaming that there shoving the politics, breath test debacle under the carpet.

They really can't win.

Oneiric 3

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

They really can't win.

You're right. They can't...

Perhaps they could make more room for gombeen politics and little gombeen 'shcandels', by having less inane chat shows hosted by grossly overpaid presenters; home improvement programs, more home improvement programs and even more home improvement programs maybe? Maybe less advertising too, since they are already raking it in with our mandatory licence fee monies.

Just a thought...

MJohnston

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

You're right. They can't...

Perhaps they could make more room for gombeen politics and little gombeen 'shcandels', by having less inane chat shows hosted by grossly overpaid presenters; home improvement programs, more home improvement programs and even more home improvement programs maybe? Maybe less advertising too, since they are already raking it in with our mandatory licence fee monies.

Just a thought...

While I have little interest in most of RTE's programming, and hope for the abolition of the license fee, I don't really understand what benefit it would be for them to heavily cover Hurricane Irma. It isn't set to affect Ireland, and I'm sure they will cover the aftermath like any other major international news story. But to devote time and money to live coverage of an event that won't affect Ireland, that is covered far more expertly by widely available media, it'd just be a waste.

For weather fans like us, the internet provides better coverage than any other channel.

MJohnston

Also worth noting that the BBC are good at covering these events because of their global reach, and the fact that a lot of affected stands are British.

BillyBobBS

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Excellent short video here from the Weather Channel explaining how the differing hurricane category scales impact on common structures.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqfExHpvLRY

Thanks for that info. Even at Cat 4 that looks likely to be very very bad news for the whole of Florida and Cuba.

Gaoth Laidir

Meanwhile...the latest recon mission has just measured peak flight-level winds of around 150 knots and SFMR surface winds of around 145 knots, so it seems to have restrengthened since the last mission.

Rougies

It's big.

Gaoth Laidir

Rougies wrote: »

It's big.

Here are the windspeed radii. Cuba is fairly benign, with the 50-knot winds just offshore.

Sofiztikated

Rougies wrote: »

It's big.

I apologise for what I am about to say, and if it offends anyone.

But.

**** that thing altogether.

Inquitus

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Meanwhile...the latest recon mission has just measured peak flight-level winds of around 150 knots and SFMR surface winds of around 145 knots, so it seems to have restrengthened since the last mission.

Yep was just going to post same, seems the EWRC is finished or close to and its picking up strength from the very warm waters between Cuba and the Keys below. Would expect it to be Cat 5 at landfall now.

Inquitus

Latest NHC

11 AM NHC update:
11:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 8
Location: 22.0°N 75.3°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 927 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

https://twitter.com/kgriffin0/status/906168924911411202

Elmer Blooker

Rougies wrote: »

It's big.

Gigantic. But I have to admit I never realised (until Irma) that the eye of the storm is so small. St Maarten was devastated but St Kitts and Nevis escaped relatively lightly - the distance between them is only 50 miles.

Gaoth Laidir

Overview of the latest shear, showing it very favourable for now.



However, it is set to increase gradually from tonight.

11am EDT discussion.

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
AL112017 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

Recent data from both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes indicate that Irma's intensity remains at 130 kt, although this value could be 5 kt higher or lower. The central pressure has been oscillating around 927 mb. The environment continues to be favorable for Irma to maintain its category 4 status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles could result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours. Nevertheless, the NHC forecast brings Irma near south Florida as a category 4 hurricane.

Thereafter, interaction with land and an increase in shear should induce gradual weakening. Plane, satellite and radar fixes from Cuba indicate that the eye of Irma is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at about 12 kt. The hurricane should continue on this track for the next 24 hours. After that time, Irma will reach the southwestern edge of the subtropical high and begin to turn north-northwestward and northward.

This turn will occur, but the precise moment is still uncertain, and that is why NHC emphasizes that nobody should focus on the exact track of the center. The new NHC forecast was adjusted just a little bit westward and is on top the latest ECMWF model and the HFIP corrected consensus. In fact, these two aids are also very close to each other.

KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane and will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to the Bahamas through Saturday. Hurricane conditions will spread over portions of the north coast of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through Saturday.

2. Irma is likely to make landfall in Florida as a dangerous major hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the center.

3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next 36 hours, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. In particular, the threat of significant storm surge flooding along the southwest coast of Florida has increased, and 6 to 12 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in this area. This is a life-threatening situation. Everyone in these areas should take all actions to protect life and property from rising water and follow evacuation instructions from local officials.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding. Total rain accumulations of 4 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected over the Florida peninsula Saturday through Monday. The highest amounts are expected over the eastern Florida peninsula and upper Florida Keys. Irma will likely bring periods of heavy rain to much of Georgia, South Carolina, and western North Carolina early next week, including some mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. All areas seeing heavy rainfall from Irma will experience a risk of flooding and flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 22.0N 75.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 22.4N 77.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 22.8N 79.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 23.7N 80.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 25.0N 81.0W 125 KT 145 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 11/1200Z 29.3N 82.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1200Z 34.0N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/1200Z 36.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

harr

So no chance at this stage of this monster weakening ?
Florida is almost guaranteed a direct hit of a cat 5 or 4 hurricane...is there anything at all at this stage that might weaken it? Unless a dramatic shift to the west was to happen even at that some poor unfortunate is still going to get it...

Inquitus

Deleted User wrote: »

11am EDT discussion.

They'd don't like to change their minds much, they clung on to the GFS eastern track for far too long, and seem to be insistent it will not strengthen again despite it doing so over the last few hours, a lot of meteo's reckon landfall as a Cat 5 at this point.

harr

Looking at the earth webcams still people milling about on some of the beaches on the Naples cam people in having a swim and a few kids buildings sandcastles .. surely they should be making some effort to leave at this stage