Major Hurricane Irma

Inquitus

harr wrote: »

Looking at the earth webcams still people milling about on some of the beaches on the Naples cam people in having a swim and a few kids buildings sandcastles .. surely they should be making some effort to leave at this stage

9 hour drive with current road conditions from Miami to Atlanta, if that were me I'd be loading up locking up and heading for Georgia!

Gaoth Laidir

In that latest discussion they're now keeping the intensity as before, despite the increase in flight recon data, which are now in line with their estimate. More confirmation that their earlier intensities were deliberately exaggerated high, probably to prevent complacency in evacuations. I don't agree with it but I suppose if it saves lives it's OK. They can always go back and correct those data in their storm summary when the dust settles.

sideswipe

Might be a bit of a stretch, but I wonder could the presence of 3 major storm depressions in the area have had an effect on continental plates causing/prompting the Mexico earthquake?

BillyBobBS

Incredibly stupid to see people staying put.

Gaoth Laidir

sideswipe wrote: »

Might be a bit of a stretch, but I wonder could the presence of 3 major storm depressions in the area have had an effect on continental plates causing/prompting the Mexico earthquake?

Absolutely no chance whatsoever. And the earthquake was in the Pacific, nowhere nearest these storms.

Inquitus

Latest GFS caves even further to the Euro Model right up the Gut of Florida, landfall at 897mb over the Everglades and then up the middle of Florida.

josip

They're going to be picking alligators out of the palm trees on Sunday.

Ultimate Seduction

Is it just Florida that's due to get battered or will it move in land to other states?

sideswipe

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Absolutely no chance whatsoever. And the earthquake was in the Pacific, nowhere nearest these storms.

Yeah probably not. But the earthquake is on the boundary between Caribbean plate and Cocos Plate which is in the pacific. If you look at a map of the positions of the storms they are all seem to be over (or at least close to) the Caribbean plate.
Maybe just coincidence.

MJohnston

sideswipe wrote: »

Yeah probably not. But the earthquake is on the boundary between Caribbean plate and Cocos Plate which is in the pacific. If you look at a map of the positions of the storms they are all seem to be over (or at least close to) the Caribbean plate.
Maybe just coincidence.

No offence, but what scientific evidence do you believe supports this being anything other than coincidence?

If any of these storms had been overland, then there might be an inkling of a suggestion, given that Harvey, for example, sunk Houston about 2cm due to surface water. But I'm not sure even that would correlate to the massive scales involved with plate movement.

BillyBobBS

Fox News just did a chart showing the possible track of this thing. Straight up the middle of Florida with wind speed of 155-170 mph. Christ on a bike!!!

Why the difference between EU and US tracks?



Group of simulations from American (blue) and European (red) computer models from Thursday night. Each color strand represents a different model simulation with slight tweaks to initial conditions. Note that the strands are clustered together where the forecast track is most confident but they diverge where the course of the storm is less certain. The bold red line is the average of all of the European model simulations, while the blue is the average of all the American model simulations.(StormVistaWxModels.com)

sideswipe

MJohnston wrote: »

No offence, but what scientific evidence do you believe supports this being anything other than coincidence?

If any of these storms had been overland, then there might be an inkling of a suggestion, given that Harvey, for example, sunk Houston about 2cm due to surface water. But I'm not sure even that would correlate to the massive scales involved with plate movement.

None, hence the use of terms like 'I wonder'. I was simply asking those with more knowledge in these matters was it possible.
Anyway don't want to derail the thread.

Looks like all the projected tracks go straight up through FL. The low lying, warm Everglades will hardly slow it down- this could do a lot of damage further north too.

Inquitus

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Why the difference between EU and US tracks?



Group of simulations from American (blue) and European (red) computer models from Thursday night. Each color strand represents a different model simulation with slight tweaks to initial conditions. Note that the strands are clustered together where the forecast track is most confident but they diverge where the course of the storm is less certain. The bold red line is the average of all of the European model simulations, while the blue is the average of all the American model simulations.(StormVistaWxModels.com)

The European model is much better than the US GFS, it has slowly come into alignment with the European model over the past couple of days.

Oneiric 3

IF the Florida impact is as big as projected, this is going to be a major win for the Euro model as it has been, by and large, very consistent with the track of this storm thus far. Would be interesting to see how the UKMO model handled this (I didn't follow it) as it has a good record of modelling hurricanes well.

traco

NHC Updates 1100 US / 1600 GMT from the weather channel.

Track moving slight to the west again, storm surge a big issue for booth coasts now. Still a strong Cat 4 might nudge into Cat 5 depending on happens over next 36 hours.

***probably most interesting with storm surge info 0:50 in***

Sofiztikated

sideswipe wrote: »

None, hence the use of terms like 'I wonder'. I was simply asking those with more knowledge in these matters was it possible.
Anyway don't want to derail the thread.

Me and the Mrs had a convo last night about the hurricanes, and she asked about the possibility of the hurricanes causing earthquakes and tsunamis. I said "I doubt it," and when I was making coffee this morning, she was all "See! I told you" when she saw the news.

Oneiric 3

Latest WV sequence. 3 hurricanes on the go over a relatively small region of the world.




Almost looks like the mark of the beast or something.

Donegal Storm

If it does take that track then hopefully the Everglades should act as a buffer to some extent, won't be any help to the Keys but a better scenario than if it barrelled straight into Miami at least

Oneiric 3

Latest forecast track from AccuWeather:



They are saying that it is increasingly possible that the whole Florida state will be impacted in someway by IRMA which, if not unprecedented, would be a pretty rare occurrence.

Inquitus

Donegal Storm wrote: »

If it does take that track then hopefully the Everglades should act as a buffer to some extent, won't be any help to the Keys but a better scenario than if it barrelled straight into Miami at least

As the Everglades are so wet they don't help weaken the Hurricane, per the wiki entry for the Homestead Hurricane.

The hurricane weakened over Florida while curving to the north and north-northeast, although the proximity to water and the passage over the Everglades limited substantial weakening.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1945_Homestead_hurricane

Gaoth Laidir

I still think it will be Cat 3 when it hits Florida and will quickly weaken. Cuba will affect it this evening and increased shear from tomorrow. I can't imagine much wind damage past the southeastern third of the state.

Donegal Storm

Inquitus wrote: »

As the Everglades are so wet they don't help weaken the Hurricane, per the wiki entry for the Homestead Hurricane.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1945_Homestead_hurricane

Thinking more in terms of storm surge, most buildings in Florida should be able to withstand the winds away from the immediate coastal communities. Surge and flooding are the main risk but the wetlands should soak up the worst of it. As I said though, no consolation for the Keys which will still take a direct hit

Inquitus

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I still think it will be Cat 3 when it hits Florida and will quickly weaken. Cuba will affect it this evening and increased shear from tomorrow. I can't imagine much wind damage past the southeastern third of the state.

I think it will be Cat 5 on landfall, it's missing Cuba and not interacting with any Mountains and there is lots of warm water to feed it now the EWRC has completed. It has strengthened over the past few hours and pressure is slowly dropping again.

harr

I see a large number of private jets and small aircraft heading out of the danger area now..probably all after seeing the latest update and maybe were hoping for a last minute downgrade or change of course

Oneiric 3

Latest SST anomalies around the Florida region:




Actual sea temps south of Florida hovering around 29c.

Windspeeds back up to 155mph, just a couple of mph short of being a Cat 5 again.

Inquitus

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Latest SST anomalies around the Florida region:

Actual sea temps south of Florida hovering around 29c.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906214285403189252

Oneiric 3

'Marathon' sea temp, located within that >30c zone is 29.4c.

https://www.reddit.com/live/zkadef2ttzql/


Don't know if you all know about live threads.