Major Hurricane Irma

ninebeanrows

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I still think it will be Cat 3 when it hits Florida and will quickly weaken. Cuba will affect it this evening and increased shear from tomorrow. I can't imagine much wind damage past the southeastern third of the state.

You've taken a position on this for the last few days- maybe you'll be right but the models show it intensifying towards cat 5 by landfall!

Inquitus

The latest Euro in animated gif, Tampa and Fort Myers get the brunt of it.

Gaoth Laidir

It's not sea surface temperature but rather the depth of the warmth that is the driver of intensification. Ocean heat content is a better metric. This is the integrated heat from the depth of the 26-degree isotherm up to the surface.

Irma will be missing the highest ocean heat content area of the Bahamas as it skirts by Cuba, so although it'll be above 50 kJ/cm², it could have been over the 75 kJ area.

Latest OCH map with forecast track

Donegal Storm

Inquitus wrote: »

The latest Euro in animated gif, Tampa and Fort Myers get the brunt of it.

Taking it right into Cuba there, worrying for them as up to now it's looked like it'd only skirt the coast

harr

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Taking it right into Cuba there, worrying for them as up to now it's looked like it'd only skirt the coast

Definitely gone west again

Gaoth Laidir

Latest dropsonde data from the northeast eyewall.

Inquitus

Inquitus wrote: »

The latest Euro in animated gif, Tampa and Fort Myers get the brunt of it.

Disruption from the landmass of Cuba is a possibility, but it appears to recover over that stretch of water south of Florida. Down to 927 mb again at landfall.

Rightwing

.

NIMAN

Can I ask a question, on that animated GIF, it seems to be tracking NW, but then veers up and over Florida, heading due North.

What makes them sure it will veer up? Why would it not continue on its NW track to the left of Florida, into the bay?

So my understanding with the latest track moving west is that it impacts some of the more densely populated areas like Miama less, but those cities in the west haven't evacuated nearly as much as the east coast and are more susceptible to surge?

Meteorite58

Rightwing wrote: »

The more damage that's done here the better. We need to be taking climate seriously.

Mod Note : Post by Redwing Infracted. In breach of forum charter : see No.5 No trolling/goading posts which serve only to aggravate other users.

dasdog

Lightning perspective

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3JLisAzstw

Oneiric 3

NIMAN wrote: »

Can I ask a question, on that animated GIF, it seems to be tracking NW, but then veers up and over Florida, heading due North.

What makes them sure it will veer up? Why would it not continue on its NW track to the left of Florida, into the bay?

Will be encountering a 'steering flow' from the Gulf.

Video here explaining:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/major-hurricane-irma-likely-to-deliver-destructive-blow-to-florida-this-weekend/70002657

Inquitus

Seems to have blown away all the foliage on Barbuda looking at this before and after pic.

https://twitter.com/KeraunosObs/status/906233638488088576

Hulk Hands

Rightwing wrote: »

.

Someone just a few pages back posted about their daughter being on holiday in Cuba. The climate change story is already being discussed. There's no need to wish for more carnage ffs

Meteorite58

I see mention that tornadoes also possible tomorrow.







https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906240423810785281

NIMAN

Heard thats there's another, called Jose, coming in behind Irma.

Thats shocking news.

Oneiric 3

Latest EC run has Irma maintaining a Cat 1 status right into the far north of the Florida. This seems to be a tad far fetched to be honest.

NIMAN

NIMAN wrote: »

Heard thats there's another, called Jose, coming in behind Irma.

Thats shocking news.

Sadly, it looks like it will hit Barbuda that got smacked when Irma was category 5. Then it will swing north.

Inquitus

Album on Facebook of @100 pictures of the damage from St Maartens / Martins devastated.

https://www.facebook.com/pg/stmartinnewsnetwork/photos/?tab=album&album_id=1439449566108784

NIMAN

Deleted User wrote: »

Sadly, it looks like it will hit Barbuda that got smacked when Irma was category 5. Then it will swing north.

Although there is nothing much left to wreck in Barbuda, how are you meant to shelter from it when there's no shelter?

NIMAN

NIMAN wrote: »

Although there is nothing much left to wreck in Barbuda, how are you meant to shelter from it when there's no shelter?

Everyone is being moved to the main big island, Antigua, which wasn't totally wrecked first time round.

MJohnston

NIMAN wrote: »

Although there is nothing much left to wreck in Barbuda, how are you meant to shelter from it when there's no shelter?

They're trying to completely evacuate Barbuda before Jose arrives.

BillyBobBS

If it makes landfall in Miami or Tampa the way it did in Barbuda is it fair to say vast parts of those cities will become inhabitable also?

Sofiztikated

NIMAN wrote: »

Although there is nothing much left to wreck in Barbuda, how are you meant to shelter from it when there's no shelter?

Almost gives you the impression that some higher power decided "**** this place in particular!"

NIMAN

Inquitus wrote: »

Album on Facebook of @100 pictures of the damage from St Maartens / Martins devastated.

https://www.facebook.com/pg/stmartinnewsnetwork/photos/?tab=album&album_id=1439449566108784

They are shocking photos.

Where do you even start the clean-up? The entire island is totally wrecked.

BorneTobyWilde

Looks on a direct path to Key West .To me it seems it will go more west and not hit Florida directly.

uck51js9zml2yt

What's the chances of any of these getting up the east coast to Washington?

BorneTobyWilde

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Looks on a direct path to Key West .To me it seems it will go more west and not hit Florida directly.

That seems to be the worst case scenario for cities on the west coast. If the eye just trails the coast, the strongest winds and surge are just to the north east of it.

NIMAN

Sofiztikated wrote: »

Almost gives you the impression that some higher power decided "**** this place in particular!"

I am not a believer in 'higher powers', but one thing for sure is that mankind has zero protection against Mother Nature once she shows her true force.

We got it bad up here in Donegal a few weeks back, but that was like a small rain shower compared to what these hurricanes are doing and the amount of damage they leave in their wake. When the most powerful nation on Earth can do nothing but just sit there and be battered to pieces, you know all our technology is useless.