Major Hurricane Irma

Oneiric 3

Nice animation of Irma when she was younger:

MJohnston

Jaycornyn wrote: »

Relations in Fort Myers have been evacuated to a shelter. Previously thought they could wait it out at home. Had all boarded up and ready. But I think Irma shifting west has changed that.

Are we likely to see destruction on the same level as the Caribbean or would building reg. be more stricked in Florida? As well as the winds I assume flooding would be a big problem for Florida given how flat it is. It's more or less a swamp to begin with.

I think buildings are likely to be more resilient in Florida compared to some of the islands already hit, but it may not matter for a lot of them. In any case, it'll be the storm surges and flooding that causes the most damage here, not the winds.

BumperD

NIMAN wrote: »

So is the eye of these the most powerful winds, or just outside of the eye?

If you look at circulation, anti clockwise, the strongest winds will always whip around to the east and north east quadrants of a hurricane. Closer you are to eye wall, the higher the wind speed.

Gaoth Laidir

Interesting tidbit of info...

Subject: E18) What was the largest number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean at the same time?

Contributed by Chris Landsea (NHC)

Four hurricanes occurred simultaneously on two occasions. The first occasion was August 22, 1893, and one of these eventually killed 1,000- 2,000 people in Georgia and South Carolina. The second occurrence was September 25, 1998, when Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl persisted into September 27, 1998 as hurricanes. Georges ended up taking the lives of thousands in Haiti. In 1971 from September 10 to 12, there were five tropical cyclones at the same time; however, while most of these ultimately achieved hurricane intensity, there were never more than two hurricanes at any one time.

Reference
Blake, E.S., E.N. Rappaport, J.D. Jarell, and C.W. Landsea, 2005: "The Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Hurricanes from 1851 to 2004 (and Other Frequently Requested Hurricane Facts.) NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS-TPC-4, 48 pp.

Pa ElGrande

Jaycornyn wrote: »

Relations in Fort Myers have been evacuated to a shelter. Previously thought they could wait it out at home. Had all boarded up and ready. But I think Irma shifting west has changed that.

Are we likely to see destruction on the same level as the Caribbean or would building reg. be more stricked in Florida? As well as the winds I assume flooding would be a big problem for Florida given how flat it is. It's more or less a swamp to begin with.

It will probably depend when the house was built, the building regulations did not get upgraded until after 2002.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPkqId3D8pU

Donegal Storm

sword1 wrote: »

So toby is right, an explosion or a controlled chemical reaction could be used to alter or weaken the hurricane theoretically

Somehow I think introducing deadly radioactive gas into a massive storm wouldn't be the brightest of ideas...

BumperD

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

I presume insurance won't cover for property loss so does the federal state step in to reinstate people for their losses?

This is often misunderstood. Insurance does cover property. Insurance coverage is always available unless an event is certain e.g. You are in a designated flood zone where flooding is certain. Also you cannot buy insurance today for Florida or states at risk because a claim is near certain.

Having said that, insurance markets react post storm and increase prices to recover losses. Large reinsurance markets are bracing for marine, business interruption, Cat coverage, property claims etc. This could be a very expensive few days. Funny thing is, all the insurance will create a economic boom for the area when funds flow.

Kermit.de.frog

Taken by NOAA a couple of days a go. Such perfectly formed eye wall creating the so called "stadium effect".

NIMAN

Sensational picture. I assume its real, I tend to take most photos on the net with a large pinch of salt these days, as most are photoshopped.

Jaycornyn

Their home is much older then 2002. Late 80s early 90s. Just have to hope for the best!

sword1

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Somehow I think introducing deadly radioactive gas into a massive storm wouldn't be the brightest of ideas...

I never mentioned radioactive gas.

Kermit.de.frog

You can see the NOAA aircraft flying through Irma right now taking readings on the FlightRadar 24 app.



The vast data collected is constantly fed back in to the computer models for the next run and update.

Love that job.:cool:

dfx-

the picture going around of before and after Barbuda from a satellite is incredible. A lush green island turns into a rusty brown island. All vegetation swept away?

Birdnuts

Looking at the 18z GFS, it appears the Florida keys are facing armageddon!! Looks like some of the worst winds will be feeding up the West side of Florida rather than the East compared to earlier runs.

NIMAN

Looks like that photo is real alright, it on this video

Kermit.de.frog

Changes currently. Looks like the hurricane will be having somewhat more interaction with Cuba than previously thought having taken a sudden wobble southwest. This could well weaken the storm. This could also see the eye remaining off the Florida coast in the Gulf ultimately but time will tell. Be interesting to see next update.

Back to Cat 5 with winds of 160mph. 200mph winds detected by the plane apparently but that wouldn't be at sea level.

I thought that was supposed to take a lot longer to happen.

Kermit.de.frog

Deleted User wrote: »

Back to Cat 5 with winds of 160mph. 200mph winds detected by the plane apparently but that wouldn't be at sea level.

I thought that was supposed to take a lot longer to happen.

That would be from the last flight. Given the interaction with Cuba it is unlikely to maintain that energy very long. Once the eye is over land it cuts the supply of energy and weakens the system quickly.

It should restrengthen over warmer waters off Florida.

I'd be sceptical of a Cat 5 hitting Florida at this stage to be honest. Given the prominence of the storm and the fact the NOAA has suffered cuts under Trump I would not rule out some skullduggery with the classification.

BumperD

There are a lot of new buildings in Miami since Andrew. Interesting to see how they hold up. Lots and lots of glass.

Kermit.de.frog

BumperD wrote: »

There are a lot of new buildings in Miami since Andrew. Interesting to see how they hold up. Lots and lots of glass.

Right now Miami is unlikely to be as badly effected this time as with Andrew. Core of storm is too far west and will in all likelyhood end up further west in the end.

BumperD

The track has been moving every 12 hours with it skirting along the Cuban coast there could still be variations tonight. It's meant to track along the edge of Cuba tonight and tomorrow day before making a turn. The timing of that turn will determine lots.

The next Euro update will be in in around an hour.

So the EURO model has it going further westward. Cuba's coast getting smacked pretty badly it seems.

+24 Hours



+48 Hours

dr.fuzzenstein

Shouldn't be so bad, fortunately global warming is a myth, so any damage is purely imagined.

dr.fuzzenstein

dr.fuzzenstein wrote: »

Shouldn't be so bad, fortunately global warming is a myth, so any damage is purely imagined.

I don't think anyone doubts the existence of hurricanes.

Euro +72 hours




Ft. Mayers and Tampa screwed with latest Euro predictions.

dr.fuzzenstein

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I don't think anyone doubts the existence of hurricanes.

Hurricanes have a very definite way of making their presence felt. Hard to ignore that.
My point is, Trumps "global warming is a myth" stance will be a lot less credible once they cleared away the debris.
I'm hoping another nail in the coffin of that fat clown.

dr.fuzzenstein

dr.fuzzenstein wrote: »

Hurricanes have a very definite way of making their presence felt. Hard to ignore that.
My point is, Trumps "global warming is a myth" stance will be a lot less credible once they cleared away the debris.
I'm hoping another nail in the coffin of that fat clown.

As much as you might like for this hurricane to be proven to be worse because of climate change, it can't happen. And as such, it won't affect the credibility of those saying it's a myth.

Even if you take data for the next 50 years, "proof" will be excusable based on lack of sample data.

dr.fuzzenstein

[Deleted User] wrote: »

As much as you might like for this hurricane to be proven to be worse because of climate change, it can't happen. And as such, it won't affect the credibility of those saying it's a myth.

Even if you take data for the next 50 years, "proof" will be excusable based on lack of sample data.

So you're saying it is a myth? Carry on as normal?
Certainly no respectable scientist would deny it.

From a few minutes ago:





Am I spamming here? I'm new to this forum.