Major Hurricane Irma

dr.fuzzenstein

dr.fuzzenstein wrote: »

So you're saying it is a myth? Carry on as normal?
Certainly no respectable scientist would deny it.

No. I said it will be excusable by those who want to believe it. You might want to slow down and actually read the words that people write.


It's tedious trying to be a realist on boards.ie Even trying to understand people suddenly makes you one of them apparently.

dr.fuzzenstein

Spam away, seems to be the right info in the right thread.

dr.fuzzenstein

dr.fuzzenstein wrote: »

Spam away, seems to be the right info in the right thread.

Well I was worried about it being spam because I have no commentary to add.. But I guess Ireland is mostly asleep so I might as well leave a trail of reports for when people wake up.

munsterlegend

It does seem to be a lot further west into Cuba than predicted 24 hours ago. Will this lessen the intensity somewhat?

munsterlegend

munsterlegend wrote: »

It does seem to be a lot further west into Cuba than predicted 24 hours ago. Will this lessen the intensity somewhat?

Temporarily it seems.. The pressure rises slightly in the 24hr one but drops again in the 48hr one because of the ocean warmth and reasons I don't understand.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=seus&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2017090900&fh=0

Edit: Nice URL shortening there boards.ie


Edit 2: I posted this a few pages back: https://www.reddit.com/live/zkadef2ttzql/

dr.fuzzenstein

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No. I said it will be excusable by those who want to believe it. You might want to slow down and actually read the words that people write.


It's tedious trying to be a realist on boards.ie Even trying to understand people suddenly makes you one of them apparently.

It is hard to understand what's happening in the US at the moment. The current incumbent certainty thrives on pitching people against each other. That s the one thing Trump is a master at.
The people in his camp will hoot and holler for him and the only way to get facts contrary to their believes in their head would be via a drill.

harr

[Deleted User] wrote: »

No. I said it will be excusable by those who want to believe it. You might want to slow down and actually read the words that people write.


It's tedious trying to be a realist on boards.ie Even trying to understand people suddenly makes you one of them apparently.

True no matter what proof or charts or data you throw at the likes of trump they will never believe it or will declare it " fake news" even if all top scientist explained it in as simple English as possible they still would not get it.
Once trump and his likes keep getting the same answer from the large corporations and polluters about jobs and how much money will be lost the situation won't change.
Probably wrong thread for this discussion anyway.

People on Reddit saying they saw a guy stumbling around drunk on live cam in Key West, which is going to be mostly inundated and smacked my hurricane winds.



Seems like some Floridians really don't like backing down.

30degree waters along Irma's projected path and patches of 30.5degrees. Not good for the entire West Coast of Florida.

Icepick

Varadero and other Cuban cays will be destroyed it looks like.
Hopefully Havana won't be hit too hard.

Kermit.de.frog

The eye could be in the Gulf at this rate which would be disasterous for western Florida.

Amazingfun

A friend in Alabama just said the same, they are starting to really worry it's going straight up the Gulf.

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The eye could be in the Gulf at this rate which would be disasterous for western Florida.

Yeah, according to the latest update from Tampa's weather service, 15 inches of rain to be expected to north and east of the eye.

DOCARCH

Deleted User wrote: »

Well I was worried about it being spam because I have no commentary to add.. But I guess Ireland is mostly asleep so I might as well leave a trail of reports for when people wake up.

There are always Mods looking/seeing....;)

If it's relevant to the topic, it's not spam.

Gaoth Laidir

Latest radar from Cuba, showing the centre skirting the Camaguey coast.

Mission 24 has found 125-knot flight level winds but the NHC are still keeping it at 140 knots surface winds. I still don't get it.

Cantona's Collars

A lot of warnings on The Weather Channel about storm surges.The sea depth around the Keys mean there could be a surge up to 9ft high pushing inland.

pauldry

Think Miami will avoid as much of a hit as western keys as Irma has gone West longer than they anticipated

Standard repost: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-75.45,22.33,2501

pauldry

pauldry wrote: »

Think Miami will avoid as much of a hit as western keys as Irma has gone West longer than they anticipated

The sad reality being that Miami had the most effective evacuation it seems.


Wonder how long till we get some news from the ground in Cuba. I imagine that coast is in dire straits.

Cantona's Collars

A spokesman for the NHC saying when" the winds are so strong,5 mph either way doesn't make much difference. People shouldn't get fixated on cat 4 or 5,when it hits Florida it'll be bad news."
The eye is currently 275 miles SSE of Miami.

Pa ElGrande

Here is a paper from 2006 on the measurement equipment aboard the aircraft used to gather data from the hurricanes.

Hurricane Surface Wind Measurements from an Operational Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer.


WP-3D Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR)

Measurement of the hurricane surface wind field, and in particular the estimation of wind maxima, has long been a requirement of the Tropical Prediction Center/OAR. The NOAA/Hurricane Research Division's Stepped-Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) is the prototype for a new generation of airborne remote sensing instruments designed for operational surface wind estimation in hurricanes.

The SFMR has a downward pointing antenna which passively reads the microwave radiation coming from the ocean surface. By making assumptions about the vertical structure of the atmosphere together with sea surface temperature measurements by a downward-looking airborne infrared radiometer, reasonable estimates of the ocean surface brightness temperature can be made at six frequencies between 4.6 and 7.2 GHz. Wind speeds are then calculated assuming linear increase in wind speed with these brightness temperatures. Since some of the frequencies are more attenuated by rainfall than others, an estimate of the rainfall rate below the airplane can also be made.

The hurricane eyewall went directly over a NOAA station on Barbuda.


Looks like it hit at 5:00 AM and passed by 6:00AM going by the pressure drop.

2017 09 06 06 06  MM   MM   MM    MM    MM    MM  MM  925.8  25.4  28.9    MM   MM   MM    MM
2017 09 06 06 00  MM   MM   MM    MM    MM    MM  MM  922.4  26.0  28.9    MM   MM -69.5    MM
2017 09 06 05 54  MM   MM   MM    MM    MM    MM  MM     MM  27.5  28.9    MM   MM   MM    MM
2017 09 06 05 48  MM   MM   MM    MM    MM    MM  MM     MM  27.2  28.8    MM   MM   MM    MM
2017 09 06 05 42  MM   MM   MM    MM    MM    MM  MM     MM  27.0  28.7    MM   MM   MM    MM
2017 09 06 05 36  MM   MM   MM    MM    MM    MM  MM     MM  26.4  28.5    MM   MM   MM    MM
2017 09 06 05 30  MM   MM   MM    MM    MM    MM  MM     MM  26.1  28.3    MM   MM   MM    MM
2017 09 06 05 24  MM   MM   MM    MM    MM    MM  MM     MM  25.6  28.2    MM   MM   MM    MM
2017 09 06 05 18  MM   MM   MM    MM    MM    MM  MM  921.1  25.5  28.0    MM   MM   MM    MM
2017 09 06 05 12  MM   MM   MM    MM    MM    MM  MM  922.5  24.8  28.0    MM   MM   MM    MM
2017 09 06 05 06  MM   MM   MM    MM    MM    MM  MM  924.7  24.7  28.0    MM   MM   MM    MM
2017 09 06 05 00 350 48.4 69.5    MM    MM    MM  MM  927.9  24.3  28.1    MM   MM -70.1    MM

The question is how did the surface measurements compare with the flight data - have not found data sources yet.

pc7

Wow some of the photos you's have posted from NASA are like scenes from the Day After Tomorrow. Nature is amazing and terrifying. Learning so much from his thread. Just hope loss of life is as low as possible, very scary times for those in its path.

Gaoth Laidir

The latest discussion from the Cuba met services reports sustained winds of 110 kph with a gust to 162 kph at Esmeralda, Camaguey (35 m amsl). This is the highest so far.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=AVISO2&TB2=0

pad199207

Current eye trajectory is along the coast of Cuba with sustained winds around the 160mph mark.

The turn for Florida would want to begin now or else it will probably stay along the west Florida coast which would be disastrous for those parts of Florida.

FastFullBack

MJohnston wrote: »

Thanks for that. Did Harvey start off Africa as well? And then moved into the Gulf?

Gaoth Laidir

pad199207 wrote: »

Current eye trajectory is along the coast of Cuba with sustained winds around the 160mph mark.

The turn for Florida would want to begin now or else it will probably stay along the west Florida coast which would be disastrous for those parts of Florida.

I see no evidence of 160 mph. The latest water vapour IR shows a dry slot wrapping around the west of the centre now and it is heading towards higher terrain. It's down to the fine detail from here on in.

traco

Any figures on what the westward shiff has been over the last 24/48/72 hours?

Another 80/100 miles would have a dramatic impact on reducing wind damage and lessen somewhat the storm surge for the SW coast.

Gaoth Laidir

Cat 4 now with 155 mph winds (or less imo).

...EYE OF IRMA CONTINUES MOVING OVER THE CAMAGUEY ARCHIPELAGO OF
CUBA AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...22.5N 78.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.47 INCHES

Samaris

Regarding people leaving the impacted area, the evacuations hit problems with gas very quickly. Even by the day before yesterday, gas was getting scarce in stations. 30-40% of stations on the routes out were out of gas by early yesterday. Many of Miami's poorer residents either have nowhere to get to, don't have the money to be buying gas up and out of the state and the price-gouging that was temporarily going on probably has turned a few more off. Might be a few that either don't reckon it's going to be that bad or they can ride it out, but many people left cannot leave for one reason or another.

FastFullBack wrote: »

Thanks for that. Did Harvey start off Africa as well? And then moved into the Gulf?

Harvey, Irma and Jose all started off out in the Atlantic near Africa although I'm not sure if all three strengthened enough close to Cape Verde to be "Cape Verde hurricanes" (I'm a little doubtful on exactly how the classification falls). Harvey skeetered along south-west of Irma's course, between Honduras and Jamaica, made landfall at Belize, right up and over the lip of Mexico that forms the lower tongue of the Gulf basin and into the Gulf where it got stuck. (Other hurricanes have gotten into the Gulf by doing the same track right over the middle of Florida - both of the "lips" of land are too narrow to really slow a big hurricane for the length of time they're over land)

Irma formed furthest north and had a nice track of abnormally warm SSTs to mooch over, gathering strength. She was moving quite a bit faster than Harvey, and while she's been a bit slowed due to landfalls, she's picked up again now for the last run towards Florida (but may dip again and will dip once Florida itself starts to absorb her impact) Jose formed a little to the south of Irma, but I don't think as far south as Harvey, and has followed (roughly) Irma's path, but is hooking northwards sooner, so he's not likely to impact the US, although it is going to hit some of the Leeward Isles by the look of it, possibly as a Cat 4.

DOCARCH

Interesting....

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/905770545899286528?s=09