Major Hurricane Irma

pauldry

is there "any" chance this could end up in the gulf and miss the pan handle apart from waves

dont think Miami will get a direct hit now and cuba may do a job on
organisation of system as it tracks over land

Latest from National Hurricane Center

discostu1

People in Kissimmee (Outside Orlando) getting Text alert from the Gov/State saying when it hits it will be a category 1 ...seems surprising

BillyBobBS

Fox News reporting it will make landfall as a cat 5 due to strengthening in the waters off Florida. Key West is going to be basically wiped off the map and Tampa/Naples is going to see severe damage. Miami looks like besides the storm surge they might get away with it.

Icepick

FastFullBack wrote: »

Thanks for that. Did Harvey start off Africa as well? And then moved into the Gulf?

Yes

Carry

Icepick wrote: »

Varadero and other Cuban cays will be destroyed it looks like.
Hopefully Havana won't be hit too hard.

Varadero is a major tourist destination, the largest in Cuba as far as I know, with dozens of big resort hotels and a lot of private B&Bs and Restaurants (one luxury resort has chalets on stilts on the water :eek:). If that's going to be destroyed, which looks more than likely, the tourism industry in Cuba will take years to recover.

BillyBobBS

5.8 million people are been evacuated from Florida over the last few days. That's more than the population of this country. Ming boggling stuff.

Icepick

Pastor Kevin Swanson has said the path of Hurricane Irma would be altered by God if the Supreme Court quickly made abortion and gay marriage illegal, “before Irma does her damage."

Murica

Oneiric 3

Latest EC projection: (Mon 00z)




Impacting as a Cat. 4 on the coast, but losing its hurricane status within 12 hours on this run. Still a lot a twists and turns to come, but this scenario would make more sense.

Meteorite58

Will it regain the strength ?

https://twitter.com/Meteo_Sean/status/906449870319431682

harr

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Will it regain the strength ?

https://twitter.com/Meteo_Sean/status/906449870319431682

She's not on the ropes just yet, a bit of wobble maybe the next 5 or 6 hours will tell a lot 🌊

Meteorite58

Cuba has taken a lot of power out of it. Plenty of open water power up again though. The slower it gets the more powerful it will get again.

Rikand

Irma trying to cause as much damage as it possibly could appears to have gotten a bit greedy in taking on Cuba

harr

Looking at Cuba live on CNN now definitely does not look as strong as it has the last few days in other locations...it's still major storm with damage being caused .

Another Euro out in 40 mins or so.

Inquitus

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Another Euro out in 40 mins or so.

Nope euro is only twice a day, 7am/pm

MJohnston

It'd be somewhat ironic if Cuba spared the USA from destruction!

Inquitus

Inquitus wrote: »

Nope euro is only twice a day, 7am/pm

The message I read that said that has since been deleted. Though ironically, it's 6:37 where I am.

pauldry

I was watchin this on cnn and they said west coast of florida to get hit but once hurricanes hit land they lose their ooomph.

harr

Getting breezy and still people walking on the pier

MJohnston

pauldry wrote: »

I was watchin this on cnn and they said west coast of florida to get hit but once hurricanes hit land they lose their ooomph.

If the track continues to edge slightly west, I think the danger is that it remains just off the west shore and over the very warm Gulf of Mexio waters, maintaining its power while moving north along the Florida panhandle, which would get battered

pauldry

Where do i see latest interactive satellite?

Gaoth Laidir

Finally the NHC are coming in line with what the data have been saying for the past two days. Still at a Cat 4 but it "may be generous". Latest recon has it Cat 3. I still say it will be Cat 3 on hitting Florida.

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

The eye of Irma has been moving over the islands along the north
coast of Cuba, and satellite imagery along with preliminary
data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates
that the hurricane has weakened. The initial intensity is reduced
to 135 kt, and this may be generous.

The initial motion is now 285/10. Irma is moving along the
southwestern side of the subtropical ridge, which is about to
weaken due to a mid- to upper-level trough moving into the
southeastern United States. The track guidance is in good
agreement that Irma should continue west-northwestward for the next
12-24 h, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest that would
take the center parallel to the west coast of the Florida
peninsula. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should turn
northwestward and eventually stall as it interacts with the
aforementioned trough. The track guidance has changed only
slightly since the previous advisory. Thus the new forecast track
follows the previous forecast in calling for Irma to move along the
coast of Cuba, then over the Lower Florida Keys, and then over and
near the Florida West coast. It should be noted that because of the
hurricane's angle of approach to the west coast of Florida, it is
extremely difficult to pinpoint exactly where the center might move
onshore.

There is an opportunity for Irma to re-intensity as it crosses the
warm waters of the Florida Straits. However, the large-scale
models forecast significant westerly shear developing at about
24 h, and it is unclear how much strengthening could occur before
then. The first part of the intensity forecast thus calls for
little change in strength through 36 h, and Irma is still expected
to be a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys and
the west coast of Florida. After that time, movement over land and
strong shear should cause steady weakening, with Irma eventually
decaying to a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.

Gaoth Laidir

pauldry wrote: »

Where do i see latest interactive satellite?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/11L_floater.html

JCX BXC

Not a plane to be found around Miami, Fort Lauderdale and south Florida in general. Yet Miami is only reporting a wind of 16kts gusting to 26kts.

They really do overkill with the cancellations there! Even the past 2 days when the weather was fine there's been immense amounts of cancellations.

pad199207

Down to a low end category 4 now as the eye is beginning to shift away slightly from the Cuban coast.

There is more than eveough warm water ahead of its path now for it regain to a high end category 4 or even category 5 storm as it makes landfall in Florida!

q85dw7osi4lebg

Wind now at 60 kph in Florida keys.

harr

pad199207 wrote: »

Down to a low end category 4 now as the eye is beginning to shift away slightly from the Cuban coast.

There is more than eveough warm water ahead of its path now for it regain to a high end category 4 or even category 5 storm as it makes landfall in Florida!

That's what they are now afraid of , if it sneaks up the west coast of Florida it could dramatically increase in power due to warmer waters ...it might hit at a cat 3 but that could and probably will go back up to a 4 or even 5 if it stays on current path.
Still a big enough difference between the two predicted paths, the euro has been more accurate so far..

janja

We should be in Key West now , we were evacuated from our Hotel on Wednesday, we left Key West at 3.30 am and drove up to Miami in about 4 hours.We met someone who left after us and it took them 12 hours to drive up.
Miami airport was hectic, we literally got the Dublin flight by the skin of our teeth got the last 2 seats on standby.

Inquitus

Lots of Meteos making the case for re-strenghtening to occur over the sea between Cuba and FL

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOaZb_SpvKc