Major Hurricane Irma

Ultimate Seduction

PowerToWait wrote:

Cat 4 or 5, what's the difference in real terms? Like how can it be 'over hyped'? It's not like you will be less dead because it's 'only' a cat 4.

It won't be a cat 4 even.

star gazer

Irma has weakened to a category 3 Hurricane (not a weak Hurricane) after a good deal of interaction with Cuba with likely extensive damage done (and ongoing) along the North Cuban coast. It's movement is also slowing down (15km/h now) and as it turns, slowing further, it looks to be getting time over warm waters to potentially instensify quickly on its forecast track up the South West coast of the Florida Peninsula, having crossed the Florida Keys. Fort Meyers up to Tampa have potentially a Category 4 Hurricane in their neighbourhood with devastating destructive power: winds, rainfall and storm surge (water causes most storm fatalities). This is forecast to be a life threatening, catastrophic event.

Expected impacts as of 4pm (11am local time) https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/906557969462169600

At least 22 people have been killed by Hurricane Irma so far. It would be nice to think it would weaken rapidly. However Irma has been, up to now, at the upper scale of any Hurricane ever recorded, it's not a time to let the guard down when it has a strong chance to reintensify over warm water.
NHC have recommenced an hourly brief update

Florida radar for the storm as it gets closer:
https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast.php

Kermit.de.frog

Another shift west on the track.

This means longer duration over water. The storm could deepen very rapidly tonight.

Bad news for western Florida.

PowerToWait

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

It won't be a cat 4 even.

That's a relief.

BorneTobyWilde

Water John wrote: »

We''ll keep an eye and see are you right, Borne. You're saying it won't turn north?

Yea, I think it does up west of Florida never making landfall with Florida .

pad199207

PowerToWait wrote: »

Cat 4 or 5, what's the difference in real terms? Like how can it be 'over hyped'? It's not like you will be less dead because it's 'only' a cat 4.

Yeah exactly it doesn't really matter what category this is because it will be just as catastrophic in many areas.

At this stage there's no question that this will be at least a strong Cat 4 storm upon landfall.

The slowdown of the storm and the more western path over more water confirms this!

Villain

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

It won't be a cat 4 even.

I wouldn't be so sure about that, plenty of warm water to feed her yet.

Either way it's going to cause awful damage and the storm surge is going to flood many areas.

Gaoth Laidir

star gazer wrote: »

Irma has weakened to a category 3 Hurricane (not a weak Hurricane) after a good deal of interaction with Cuba with likely extensive damage done (and ongoing) along the North Cuban coast. It's movement is also slowing down (15km/h now) and as it turns, slowing further, it looks to be getting time over warm waters to potentially instensify quickly on its forecast track up the South West coast of the Florida Peninsula, having crossed the Florida Keys. Fort Meyers up to Tampa have potentially a Category 4 Hurricane in their neighbourhood with devastating destructive power: winds, rainfall and storm surge (water causes most storm fatalities). This is forecast to be a life threatening, catastrophic event.

At least 22 people have been killed by Hurricane Irma so far. It would be nice to think it would weaken rapidly. However Irma has been, up to now, at the upper scale of any Hurricane ever recorded, it's not a time to let the guard down when it has a strong chance to reintensify over warm water.
NHC have recommenced an hourly brief update

Florida radar for the storm as it gets closer:
https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast.php

Tempering the effect of time over warm waters is the increasing shear, so we will not see it behave like it has during the week, where shear was almost non-existent.

The NHC have been overstating the intensity in the past two days, so in reality it has not been quite the monster people think. No data have supported the sustained classification of 160 mph intensity over the past two days. I believe they took some decision to keep the intensity up to aid the evacuation and prevent the chaos that would ensue if people saw it had lost strength after having been ordered to evacuate. Better to prepare for the worst and get less than prepare for less but get the worst.

Having said that, even at Cat 3 it will still be major storm.

Storm 10

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Listen to the sound on this one, Like a train!

https://twitter.com/EUStormMap/status/906537991203684353

I saw that video when they said it was from St Martin, apparently there are people posting video and pictures that are not from this storm. I think it's somwhere on this forum if you go back

Villain

Latest radar and sat images appear to show Irma intensifying already

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL112017&starting_image=2017AL11_4KMIRIMG_201709091255.GIF

BumperD

The last loop shows it moving out away from the coast again. this probably ends the chance of any further weakening


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-vis-long.html

GhostyMcGhost

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Yea, I think it does up west of Florida never making landfall with Florida .

Straight up the gulf

What’s good news for Florida is bad news for Alabama/Georgia

BorneTobyWilde

Looks like the start of the sharp veer to the east, maybe.

harr

They are trying to get this into people's heads ,just because the wind might be slightly less than predicted the surge is going to be the problem. CNN mentioned earlier most people who die in hurricanes drown. It's seems even that because it has shifted west and is weakening a little some people are now making their way back to Miami and the east coast

Villain

Also as their update stated

Earlier today there was a report from a weather station in Ciego
de Avila, Cuba, of a wind gust to 159 mph (256 km/h).

The gusts will be severe at times, obviously as it's the mean speed that matters for what Category it is what is spoken about but the Gusts will be crazy.

Gaoth Laidir

Villain wrote: »

Also as their update stated

:
Earlier today there was a report from a weather station in Ciego
de Avila, Cuba, of a wind gust to 159 mph (256 km/h).

The gusts will be severe at times, obviously as it's the mean speed that matters for what Category it is what is spoken about but the Gusts will be crazy.

That report was from 04:35 local time this morning (08:35 UTC). It has weakened considerably since then. Max sustained winds were 125 kph.

Rainfall in Guantanamo was above 400 mm.

From the Cuba Met service:

La estación meteorológica de Falla, en Ciego de Ávila, reportó una racha máxima de 256 kilómetros por hora a las 4 y 35 de la madrugada. En Villa Clara, alrededor de las 11 de la mañana, se reportaron vientos en rachas de 202 kilómetros por hora en Caibarién y de 150 kilómetros por hora en Sagua la Grande. A esa misma hora, el viento máximo sostenido de región norte alcanzaba 125 kilómetros por hora en Sagua la Grande y 160 kilómetros por hora en Caibarién. Se han reportado inundaciones costeras moderadas en el poblado de Júcaro en Ciego de Ávila. En las últimas 24 horas la estación meteorológica ubicada en la ciudad de Holguín reportaba en un acumulado de precipitaciones de 208 milímetros y en la estación meteorológica Palenque Yateras, provincia Guantánamo se reportaron 406,3 mm.

Hal1

A high res image loop here.
https://gfycat.com/ifr/BleakAliveEquine

Villain

I understand that but my point was gusts will exceed the mean speed and the mean speed is what most are mentioning.

Enzokk

harr wrote: »

They are trying to get this into people's heads ,just because the wind might be slightly less than predicted the surge is going to be the problem. CNN mentioned earlier most people who die in hurricanes drown. It's seems even that because it has shifted west and is weakening a little some people are now making their way back to Miami and the east coast

This is what happened in the Philippines with Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda in 2013. People were so used to the warnings and the subsequent storm not being so intense they ignored the warning from the government. With that typhoon it was the storm surge that caused many to drown. I hope people in the US do not need to learn it for themselves and will heed the warning, even if it doesn't turn out so bad.

Ultimate Seduction

Hurricane Katrina was only CAT 1 in New Orleans in 2005

Meteorite58

Whatever about the extreme winds, ultimately the surge will be the most dangerous.



https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/906563461844488192

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906579174139338752

https://twitter.com/NWS/status/906565185959350282

Desserted streets in Miami

https://twitter.com/StormhunterTWN/status/906516980613746695

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906580586143404032


https://twitter.com/NWS/status/906582351219761152

Inquitus

Looking like Cat 4+ at landfall, based on the latest run and then very strong up the whole peninsula from landfall to Georgia.

Rikand

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

Hurricane Katrina was only CAT 1 in New Orleans in 2005

Which is in relation to what ?

Katrina made landfall as a Cat3

Rikand

Meteorite58 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/NWS/status/906565185959350282

The outer bands of Irma stretch from north florida to central america

josip

If it runs up the west coast of Florida I would expect the tidal surge to be at the higher end of what's predicted?
Around Fort Myers will be very badly hit, not dissimilar to Houston/New Orleans.
Tampa doesn't look like it would be as badly affected, unless the bay had a funnelling effect.

http://flood.firetree.net/

Oneiric 3

Looking shaky in Miami:

http://www.miamiandbeaches.com/plan-your-trip/see-miami-webcams

Meteorite58

josip wrote: »

If it runs up the west coast of Florida I would expect the tidal surge to be at the higher end of what's predicted?
Around Fort Myers will be very badly hit, not dissimilar to Houston/New Orleans.
Tampa doesn't look like it would be as badly affected, unless the bay had a funnelling effect.

http://flood.firetree.net/

Good site here showing expected storm surge

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/154304.shtml?inundation#contents

Water John

European Model indicates making landfall in the Tampa Bay area, Source CNN.

Amazingfun

This is a good channel for lurkers: they find periscopes and streams from people in Florida. We're watching an absolute lunatic taking us for a tour around the KEYS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qyqxgtAc2yI&feature=em-lss