Major Hurricane Irma

Rikand

Irma makes ocean disappear

https://www.facebook.com/ExtremeWeather.co/videos/695708527287952/

Came up on my facebook feed

Meteorite58

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dA5qYrboTUE

BillyBobBS

Water John wrote: »

European Model indicates making landfall in the Tampa Bay area, Source CNN.

Very low lying area. Considering the reports that a lot of people in Tampa have stayed put this isn't going to end well.

Fox now reporting they expect it to increase to at least a force 4 over the next 8-10 hours.

BillyBobBS

Meteorite58 wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dA5qYrboTUE

:eek: Holy crap

discostu1

BillyBobBS wrote: »

Very low lying area. Considering the reports that a lot of people in Tampa have stayed put this isn't going to end well.

Fox now reporting they expect it to increase to at least a force 4 over the next 8-10 hours.

Back two weeks from Tampa/Bradenton. I dont know anything about weather but this is indeed a very low lying area and whereas there are a lot of High Rise Apartments in Miamy a lot of housing here is villa and close to the sea. In addition there are huge numbers of people (Mainly over 55) who live in Prefabricated house or trailer type accomadation.
I have family in Bradenton so thanks for all the updates

star gazer

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Tempering the effect of time over warm waters is the increasing shear, so we will not see it behave like it has during the week, where shear was almost non-existent.

The NHC have been overstating the intensity in the past two days, so in reality it has not been quite the monster people think. No data have supported the sustained classification of 160 mph intensity over the past two days. I believe they took some decision to keep the intensity up to aid the evacuation and prevent the chaos that would ensue if people saw it had lost strength after having been ordered to evacuate. Better to prepare for the worst and get less than prepare for less but get the worst.

Having said that, even at Cat 3 it will still be major storm.

It wouldn't take much to increase to a Category 4 Hurricane from where it is now and the forecast is for that to happen. It would be a mistake to discount the NHC forecasts, they've a lot of resources behind their decisions. Forecasts missing on the upside and missing on the downside is an occupational hazzard and getting deep resources into researching the various factors that determine how a Hurricane will behave is important in the longer term. Don't forget, there's increased heat energy on the planet in the last several years.

Gaoth Laidir

Latest recon just flown through the eye. Pressure around 940 hPa, max flight-level winds ~100 kts, max SFMR surface winds unreliable. It should turn around and make another pass soon.

NIMAN

Surely they are better erring on the side of caution?

Nothing worse than saying its going to be Cat3 and end up Cat5, they would be castigated for that afterwards.

Meteorite58

Reading that the latest recon pass measured 939mb so it is deemed that Irma has ceased weakening. Winds are still lower but all the guidance suggesting to increase from here.


https://twitter.com/NWS/status/906587508116529161




https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/906587506321354752

BillyBobBS

Massive massive storm. Hard to believe really. We have it easy here in Ireland all told.

Gaoth Laidir

Latest multiplatform windfield. This would indicate around Cat 2.

Water John

This must be like what hit Ireland in 1839 'The Night of The Big Wind'.

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/906593245873963014

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906593393840721923

harr

This is one pissed off bitch of a hurricane , she is relentless

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7ld45pUueQ

Live stream.. Plenty of happy go lucky people wandering by.

Inquitus

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7ld45pUueQ

Live stream.. Plenty of happy go lucky people wandering by.

It's a 3.5 hour drive from there to Miami, if the bridges are still open and you have enough gas. Not really where people with half a brain should be right now!

Inquitus

Inquitus wrote: »

It's a 3.5 hour drive from there to Miami, if the bridges are still open and you have enough gas. Not really where people with half a brain should be right now!

I hope they have secure accommodation that can survive what's forecasted to happen.

From being on the tail-end of many typhoons, I know how seriously people usually take this type of storm.. And it's usually nothing like this.
Even far from water, businesses were closed days before Haiyan. These people on the Keys just don't seem to care. I was relatively safe but yet worried about the effects.

Gaoth Laidir

Latest TAF for Key West: Northerly 90 gusting 120 knots from 12Z tomorrow.

KEYW 091730Z 0918/1018 03025G35KT P6SM -RA FEW015 SCT025 OVC045
TEMPO 0918/0921 03030G55KT 3SM SQ BKN010 BKN020 OVC050
FM092100 05032G50KT 3SM RA SCT012 OVC025
TEMPO 0921/0924 05040G60KT 1SM SQ BKN010 OVC020
FM100000 03040G60KT 2SM +RA BKN012 OVC020
FM100600 02056G70KT 1SM +RA BKN010 OVC015
FM100900 04075G95KT 1SM +RA BKN005 BKN010 OVC015
FM101200 36090G120KT 1/4SM +RA BKN002 BKN008 OVC010
FM101500 27075G100KT 1/4SM +RA BKN002 BKN008 OVC010

Gaoth Laidir

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Latest TAF for Key West: Northerly 90 gusting 120 knots from 12Z tomorrow.

KEYW 091730Z 0918/1018 03025G35KT P6SM -RA FEW015 SCT025 OVC045
TEMPO 0918/0921 03030G55KT 3SM SQ BKN010 BKN020 OVC050
FM092100 05032G50KT 3SM RA SCT012 OVC025
TEMPO 0921/0924 05040G60KT 1SM SQ BKN010 OVC020
FM100000 03040G60KT 2SM +RA BKN012 OVC020
FM100600 02056G70KT 1SM +RA BKN010 OVC015
FM100900 04075G95KT 1SM +RA BKN005 BKN010 OVC015
FM101200 36090G120KT 1/4SM +RA BKN002 BKN008 OVC010
FM101500 27075G100KT 1/4SM +RA BKN002 BKN008 OVC010

For us who are gatecrashing and curious, would you mind explaining the bolded part? Thanks.

Villain

That's 220kmh gusts!! This is both amazing and scary

NIMAN

Deleted User wrote: »

I hope they have secure accommodation that can survive what's forecasted to happen.

Have people always been flippant about bad storms approaching, or is it a new thing since the arrival of social media, where they want to be seen to be there, sticking it out so they can post on the internet?

Gaoth Laidir

Deleted User wrote: »

For us who are gatecrashing and curious, would you mind explaining the bolded part? Thanks.

FM101200 36090G120KT 1/4SM +RA BKN002 BKN008 OVC010

Wind forecast to be northerly, sustained 90 knots, gusting to 120 knots, from 1200GMT tomorrow.
Visibility 1/4 statute mile, Heavy Rain, Broken cloud at 200 ft, 800 ft. Overcast at 1000 ft.

TheRiverman

Headlines are saying that millions of people are fleeing Florida.Where do they all go to ?

Inquitus

Deleted User wrote: »

I hope they have secure accommodation that can survive what's forecasted to happen.

From being on the tail-end of many typhoons, I know how seriously people usually take this type of storm.. And it's usually nothing like this.
Even far from water, businesses were closed days before Haiyan. These people on the Keys just don't seem to care. I was relatively safe but yet worried about the effects.

You can view the current predicted storm surge here - http://nc-cera.renci.org/

Its not anywhere you want to be!

TheRiverman

TheRiverman wrote: »

Headlines are saying that millions of people are fleeing Florida.Where do they all go to ?

While I wouldn't be able to read a new one, thanks for the explanation.

I presume this sort of coded weather forecast came about because of shipping.

NIMAN

NIMAN wrote: »

Have people always been flippant about bad storms approaching, or is it a new thing since the arrival of social media, where they want to be seen to be there, sticking it out so they can post on the internet?

I'd argue some of it is about the news people follow. By an algorithm, they're fed what Google or Facebook know they're into. Or they get shown feeds of people who are still there.

While a hurricane is extreme, perhaps there are sites and people that these folks listen to, that restricts them from hearing more levelheaded news.

This isn't the thread for that though I don't think.

BillyBobBS

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7ld45pUueQ

Live stream.. Plenty of happy go lucky people wandering by.

Absolute fools. They get in danger and then they put the emergency services in danger.

NIMAN

No harm but I think if they get in trouble when Irma hits, there will be no emergency services available to come get them.

keith_sixteen

NIMAN wrote: »

No harm but I think if they get in trouble when Irma hits, there will be no emergency services available to come get them.

Absolutely....911 won't be responding.

harr

BillyBobBS wrote: »

Absolute fools. They get in danger and then they put the emergency services in danger.

Just waiting for one of them to dropped by a rouge wave...