Major Hurricane Irma

BillyBobBS

harr wrote: »

Just waiting for one of them to dropped by a rouge wave...

It must be so frustrating for the emergency services. One thing the planet isn't running out of is stupid people that's for sure.

Inquitus

harr wrote: »

Just waiting for one of them to dropped by a rouge wave...

Here you go!

Water John

Wasn't watching it all the time but would be fun if the number plate of the car showed.

harr

harr wrote: »

Just waiting for one of them to dropped by a rouge wave...

Red waves aren't forecast unfortunately.

harr

Inquitus wrote: »

Here you go!

Thanks for the that, bloody fool

Rikand

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7ld45pUueQ

Live stream.. Plenty of happy go lucky people wandering by.

I've been watching it for the last 30 minutes hoping for just one big wave to come along and knock them all on their asses and then watch them run away

Inquitus

This is a good link, someone off reddit has embedded a bunch of live webcams from youtube on the one page!

https://zeryl.github.io/irma.html

TheRiverman

Deleted User wrote: »

Red waves aren't forecast unfortunately.

Yellow wind forecast here in Ireland tomorrow :rolleyes:

Gaoth Laidir

Deleted User wrote: »

While I wouldn't be able to read a new one, thanks for the explanation.

I presume this sort of coded weather forecast came about because of shipping.

It's an aviation forecast for Key West airport and immediate surrounding area.

Rikand

Inquitus wrote: »

Here you go!

I hope that gets played on every news channel.....forever!

Inquitus

Inquitus wrote: »

This is a good link, someone off reddit has embedded a bunch of live webcams from youtube on the one page!

https://zeryl.github.io/irma.html

I screenshotted it so it's comparable.

Daily repost: https://www.reddit.com/live/zkadef2ttzql/

pad199207

Seeing on Twitter from Bahamas that the sea has retreated so far out at the moment they can't believe their eyes. Unless it's someone taking the piss with just a normal low tide.

Gaoth Laidir

Mission 27 has now flown through the eye again and measured more reliable SFMR surface winds of around 95-100 knots. Flight-level winds the same now as the previous pass nearly 2 hours ago, so no strengthening yet according to these data.

Are the lines based on the flight path of the plane?

BumperD

7pm to 7am curfew Miami

pad199207

Latest data shows a drop in pressure from previously. Latest sat and radar showing it really getting its act together again.

God help those ejets in the keys!

In the link for all the live cams, https://zeryl.github.io/irma.html

, there's already visible flooding in top right.

BillyBobBS

All the major weather shows saying it's strengthening and will land at least as a cat 4.

Gaoth Laidir

Deleted User wrote: »

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Are the lines based on the flight path of the plane?

Yes

BillyBobBS

pad199207 wrote: »

Latest data shows a drop in pressure from previously. Latest sat and radar showing it really getting its act together again.

God help those ejets in the keys!

Some will be cut off and drown. A horrible way to go but they all have had fair warning and then some.

iguana

pad199207 wrote: »

Seeing on Twitter from Bahamas that the sea has retreated so far out at the moment they can't believe their eyes. Unless it's someone taking the piss with just a normal low tide.

I've been wondering about that. The video is several hours old now and there is no other news on it. Doesn't seem legit.

foxy06

Deleted User wrote: »

In the link for all the live cams, https://zeryl.github.io/irma.html

, there's already visible flooding in top right.

It's just cut off. Must be getting bad now.

Water John

Anchor on CNN, goes blank and can't remember the hurricane's name. Eventually latches onto, Irene. On the air 5 hours I think.

TheMilkyPirate

Water John wrote: »

This must be like what hit Ireland in 1839 'The Night of The Big Wind'.

Yes. Multiplied by 10

star gazer

Pressure falling, Has started turning.

...EYE OF IRMA BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE COAST OF CUBA
WHILE WEATHER IS DETERIORATING IN SOUTH FLORIDA...
...MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AT
DAYBREAK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...23.4N 80.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

Villain

Latest update from NHC:

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane sampling Irma indicate
that the hurricane has not recovered yet from its interaction
with Cuba. It is estimated that the maximum winds are 110 kt. Given
the excellent satellite presentation, the lower pressure just
reported by the NOAA plane, and the fact that the hurricane will
move over the warm waters of the Straits of Florida, some
intensification is anticipated during the next 24 hours. Irma is
expected to remain a very dangerous hurricane while it moves near or
over the Florida Keys and near or over the Florida Peninsula. After
48 hours, Irma will be moving farther inland and weakening.

Radar data indicate that Irma is moving toward the west-northwest
at about 8 kt. The turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is
about to begin since the hurricane is already at the western edge of
the subtropical ridge. The track guidance continues to be tightly
packed, and the bulk of the models take the hurricane over the
Florida Keys and near or over the Florida Peninsula. The NHC
forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, and given the
good agreement among models, the confidence in the track forecast is
high.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected bring life-threatening wind and storm surge to
the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane tonight through Saturday. Preparations in southwest
Florida should be completed within the next few hours, as
tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin tonight.

2. There is an imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge
flooding in portions of central and southern Florida, including the
Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat
of catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest
coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground
level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation, and
everyone in these areas should immediately follow any evacuation
instructions from local officials.

3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida
regardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irma
are also expected to spread northward through much of Georgia
and portions of South Carolina and Alabama.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.
Total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts
of between 20 and 25 inches, are expected over the Florida Keys, the
Florida peninsula, and southeast Georgia from Saturday through
Monday. Significant river flooding is possible in these areas. Early
next week Irma will also bring periods of heavy rain to much of the
southeast United States where an average of 2 to 6 inches is
forecast, with isolated higher amounts, from North and South
Carolina to Tennessee and eastern Alabama. This includes some
mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. Residents
throughout the southeast states should remain aware of the flood
threat and stay tuned to forecasts and warnings.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 23.4N 80.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 24.1N 81.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 25.7N 82.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 28.3N 82.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 31.2N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/1800Z 35.5N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 13/1800Z 36.1N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN

Gaoth Laidir

From the raw recon data, the surface pressure was 937.1 hPa at 18:30Z on the first pass, then 933.1 at 20:06Z

That's a 4-hPa fall in 1.5 hours.

Max surface wind 92 knots.

VW 1

Gaoth Laidir wrote:

That's a 4-hPa fall in 1.5 hours.

What does that translate to for us lay-people with an interest?

BillyBobBS

5 miles an hour off a Cat 4 at present according to Fox News. "Inevitable with the water temp this is turning into at least a cat 4".