Major Hurricane Irma

traco · 10-09-2017 10:58am

Its not looking good for the west coast of Florida now.

The shift west again is not helpful, that and the slow speed its moving at will magnify the storm surge. The only hope they have now is for Irma to weaken and pick up speed. Any drop in wind speed and increase in pressure would be very welcome.

Looks like ETA Naples will be around 2200 Irish time and guessing Tampa Monday morning. I'm not sure of the storm surge specifics but think the worst could be 10 - 20 hours after main impact.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 10-09-2017 11:11am

That guy on the boat is a lunatic! He has just made clear that he is not stupid and he hasn't put himself in a life or death situation....

uck51js9zml2yt · 10-09-2017 11:12am

A sure fire way to get killed

https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/florida-gun-owners-encouraged-apos-213111921.html

Harry Palmr · 10-09-2017 11:15am

Live feed from the local ABC affiliate

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtULJfghIBQ

10-09-2017 11:16am

Wilder Massive Sinkhole wrote: »

A sure fire way to get killed

https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/florida-gun-owners-encouraged-apos-213111921.html

or kill someone else!

Cantona's Collars · 10-09-2017 11:17am

Wilder Massive Sinkhole wrote: »

A sure fire way to get killed

https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/florida-gun-owners-encouraged-apos-213111921.html

Guns don't kill people,idiots do."Shoot it with guns and flamethrowers", there are some really dumb people out there.

Cantona's Collars · 10-09-2017 11:21am

Armed troops have had to be sent to the British Virgin Islands to back up local police due to lawlessness and looting.The place is wrecked and scumbags just want to steal stuff.

Samaris · 10-09-2017 11:22am

I was so damn sure that that thread was just a pisstake (about shooting Irma). Nope, apparently there are people that bonkers out there.

GhostyMcGhost · 10-09-2017 11:22am

zerks wrote: »

Guns don't kill people,idiots do."Shoot it with guns and flamethrowers", there are some really dumb people out there.

You wouldn’t like Irma when she’s angry

Gaoth Laidir · 10-09-2017 11:24am

Ocean Heat Content is very much reducing now along the forecast path, down to below the critical 50 kJ/cm2 just past the Keys. That, plus the large landmass to the east, plus the increasing shear will really weaken it before making landfall.

Samaris · 10-09-2017 11:28am

She's only mildly irritated at the moment.

In a way, I'm a little worried about what might happen if Irma isn't destructive. If she had dropped to a Cat3, I would be fearful of people deciding "oh, it was all pushed out of proportion by the biased media (a la Rush Limbaugh), won't bother listening to the next one" and then Jose (or something following) flattening the place.

I suppose it's always possible with large-scale, mostly-well-organised emergency plans though. There is the risk of nothing much happening and people then deriding the precautions.

This is absolutely borrowing trouble though, since a) it looks like it is already hammering south Florida and b) better safe than sorry.

Villain · 10-09-2017 11:34am

350,000 in Florida already without power with transformers exploding.

Between Hurricane force winds, up 500mm of rain and Storm surge of up to 3 meters possible, this is going to cause serious damage, don't be deluded by thinking a CAT 3 or even CAT 2 means it won't be serious.

Donegal Storm · 10-09-2017 11:37am

Samaris wrote: »

She's only mildly irritated at the moment.

In a way, I'm a little worried about what might happen if Irma isn't destructive. If she had dropped to a Cat3, I would be fearful of people deciding "oh, it was all pushed out of proportion by the biased media (a la Rush Limbaugh), won't bother listening to the next one" and then Jose (or something following) flattening the place.

I suppose it's always possible with large-scale, mostly-well-organised emergency plans though. There is the risk of nothing much happening and people then deriding the precautions.

This is absolutely borrowing trouble though, since a) it looks like it is already hammering south Florida and b) better safe than sorry.

American media always hype and sensationalise everything out of all proportion, Gaoth Laidirs excellent updates are showing the real picture of whats happening which is likely a weakening cat 3 storm at landfall. Still bad obviously and still worthy of evacuation but not 'worst storm in history' as the media are portraying it as

MJohnston · 10-09-2017 11:40am

Donegal Storm wrote: »

American media always hype and sensationalise everything out of all proportion, Gaoth Laidirs excellent updates are showing the real picture of whats happening which is likely a weakening cat 3 storm at landfall. Still bad obviously and still worthy of evacuation but not 'worst storm in history' as the media are portraying it as

This "overhyping" label really bothers me - people like to throw it out to seem aloof and intelligent, but in all honesty it just makes them sound ignorant.

Samaris · 10-09-2017 11:40am

Villain wrote: »

350,000 in Florida already without power with transformers exploding.

Between Hurricane force winds, up 500mm of rain and up to Storm surge of up to 3 meters possible, this is going to cause serious damage, don't be deluded by thinking a CAT 3 or even CAT 2 means it won't be serious.

Yes, you're right on that, and it was poor phrasing on my part. More just that Irma has been a category 5 which absolutely caught peoples' attention. Given her slow head for Florida, there's been plenty of time for people to dwell on it and worry. But there's been a spread in a sort of mindset to ignore the experts, what do they know. If all the warnings and alarm regarding Irma falls flat at all, god knows what it will do (however unfairly) to peoples trust in forecasting for emergencies. Hopefully people do know that hurricanes aren't easy to forecast far ahead and there are a lot of variables. Just common sense appears in remarkably short supply of late.

Meteorite58 · 10-09-2017 11:41am

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/906826276874440704

MJohnston · 10-09-2017 11:47am

Samaris wrote: »

Hopefully people do know that hurricanes aren't easy to forecast far ahead and there are a lot of variables.

They don't, is the problem, hence we get a lot of ignorance with people calling things overhyped. Education systems the world over don't teach people who to examine scientific data and understand probabilistic outcomes - they don't understand that when media talk about the worst case scenarios of storms, they're not just hyping, they're talking about an outcome that has a high probability of happening. But then, if it doesn't happen, they don't understand and write off scientists and weather experts. We see it all the time on this weather forum.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 10-09-2017 11:53am

BillyBobBS · 10-09-2017 11:58am

All the experts have been right. This is an absolute monster.

MJohnston · 10-09-2017 11:59am

Ryder Brave Dolphin wrote: »

Is he actually sheltering beside a *petrol station*? I suppose it might be nearly empty, but then if I remember right, that's when they're at their most dangerous.

Meteorite58 · 10-09-2017 12:05pm

NHC

NORTHERN EYEWALL OF HURRICANE #IRMA REACHES THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. EYE IS 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST.

moonlighting · 10-09-2017 12:12pm

one more hour and the fun really starts.
its cool watching the live steams on youtube.

Meteorite58 · 10-09-2017 12:13pm

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/906836364586635264

Reports also of a larger eyewall appearing. Inner eye on the N end of the large eye

irishfeen · 10-09-2017 12:14pm

Anyone with access to MSNBC it seems to be superior to the rest of the news channels atm, very detailed and an awful lot of reporters on the ground.

God bless those over the next 48 hours across Florida, by the looks of it this storm will cause unprecedented destruction with the storm surge.