Major Hurricane Irma

BumperD

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Looks storm force to me. Not that bad

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I didn't say that. Check again.

As requested.

Gaoth Laidir

BumperD wrote: »

As requested.

I didn't say barely.

BumperD

Good god Miami really did miss a bullet looking by the damage. A direct hit would have been horrible

BillyBobBS

Hard to take the CNN guy at face value. He's so full of s h it

irishfeen

BumperD wrote: »

Good god Miami really did miss a bullet looking by the damage. A direct hit would have been horrible

Surge flooding downtown Miami now, will cause catastrophic damage.

discostu1

We have family in Ellenton about 10 miles away from the Gulf. THe beach we tend to go to is Bradenton/Holmes we have watched as this gorgeous house was rebuilt literally on the beach it was sold in April for $3.5m Hope it isnt too badly damaged https://www.vrbo.com/956040

Oneiric 3

BillyBobBS wrote: »

Hard to take the CNN guy at face value. He's so full of s h it

Great that CNN actually got something big to report on as it takes the heat off of their disgracefully bad reporting on the Trump/Russia 'story' over the last couple of months.

BumperD

discostu1 wrote: »

We have family in Ellenton about 10 miles away from the Gulf. THe beach we tend to go to is Bradenton/Holmes we have watched as this gorgeous house was rebuilt literally on the beach it was sold in April for $3.5m Hope it isnt too badly damaged https://www.vrbo.com/956040

Safe to say ground floor flooded

NIMAN

Why are they finding winds.of 45mph so worrying?

The skies over Florida, empty

https://www.flightradar24.com/29.46,-79.52/6

MJohnston

NIMAN wrote: »

Why are they finding winds.of 45mph so worrying?

Where are you seeing those speeds?

Inquitus

The unforecast overlanding of the eye on Cuba has saved Florida from a far worse battering than it is actually going to get.

Oneiric 3

Final animation from moi today. Irma's path today:

BumperD

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I didn't say barely.

You've been downplaying its strength and now you want to do a handbrake turn in a canoe. really don't want to be arguing with you but you asked me to quote you so I did. Don't shoot the messenger! I'm done with discussing this with you.

Gaoth Laidir

PaulKK wrote: »

Thanks,

I see reference to him saying its 'barely' a cat 3.

Seems a bizarre thing to say personally when the damage that is being caused is life changing for many people.

Barely a Cat 3, as opposed to the Cat 5 that was being hyped up a couple of days ago. I was also "barely" a Cat 4 at Key West (just 2 knots above Cat 3).

I hate hype. This has been a big big deal, moreso for the Caribbean island nations earlier in the week. The footage from the likes of St. Martin and BVI were shocking. But as the week went on it was becoming less likely that we would see that occur in Florida, despite what the networks and many others were saying, based on the false high intensities from the NHC. It's turned out to be exactly that. "Barely" a Cat 4 at the Keys and "barely" a Cat 3 at Marco Island. As Oneiric said, it makes no bit of difference to those affected, so we're arguing over loose change here.

What I or you or the NHC or CNN says makes not one bit of difference to what the residents are dealing with, so I don't see why you think it's "bizarre". Luckily it's not been the disaster it was in the other countries windwise, though we're still not quite experiencing the real problem yet; flooding.

adox

The weather channel I'm finding better then CNN.

NIMAN

MJohnston wrote: »

Where are you seeing those speeds?

I was watching cnn and they kept repeating it and saying it was critical.

Watching cnn I'm afraid the guys are a little ott with their coverage. They are out standing in bays in the mud where the water has gone out of the bay. They keep telling people not to take risks yet these guys are acting like daft teenagers.

MJohnston

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Barely a Cat 3, as opposed to the Cat 5 that was being hyped up a couple of days ago.

I think it's really weird that posters who frequent a weather forum refer to the difference between a predicted Cat 5 and an actual Cat 3 hurricane as 'hype'.

Like seriously, how can people spend so much time reading weather charts and models and not understand probabilistic modelling? I've seen a lot of this around the internet over the last few days, but tbh I expected better from the posters here.

BumperD

adox wrote: »

The weather channel I'm finding better then CNN.

MSNBC have best of both worlds, they cut through to weather channel when needed

MJohnston

NIMAN wrote: »

I was watching cnn and they kept repeating it and saying it was critical.

Watching cnn I'm afraid the guys are a little ott with their coverage. They are out standing in bays in the mud where the water has gone out of the bay. They keep telling people not to take risks yet these guys are acting like daft teenagers.

I think you probably heard wrong, the sustained speeds are way above 45mph in the areas directly (and even indirectly) hit, and the gust speeds much higher again.

NIMAN

I say only, but it's a Cat 2 now.

I know there is going to be a lot of damage but could it have been so much worse?

The guy on CNN has mentioned the back end of the storm now about 1000 times. Ok pal we get it. You'd think he was telling the world for the 1St time that there's still wind after the eye passes. Like he discovered it.

Gaoth Laidir

BumperD wrote: »

You've been downplaying its strength and now you want to do a handbrake turn in a canoe. really don't want to be arguing with you but you asked me to quote you so I did. Don't shoot the messenger! I'm done with discussing this with you.

I've only been quoting what the data were saying. That's not downplaying. You stuck in an exaggeration term when quoting me so I pulled you up on it. Don't shoot the messenger indeed.

Anyway, storm in a teacup and all that. I'm hoping the storm surge won't turn out to be as bad as it's looking like.

MJohnston

NIMAN wrote: »

I say only, but it's a Cat 2 now.

I know there is going to be a lot of damage but could it have been so much worse?

The guy on CNN has mentioned the back end of the storm now about 1000 times. Ok pal we get it. You'd think he was telling the world for the 1St time that there's still wind after the eye passes. Like he discovered it.

Are you kidding? CNN and other reporters should never stop mentioning that it gets bad again after the eye passes. I guarantee you there are a LOT of people who wouldn't know, and even if bores you, it's worth it if it saves some lives.

I seriously don't know what people expect from extreme weather reporting!

Inquitus

NHC 6 PM Update

LOCATION...26.3N 81.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

NIMAN

MJohnston wrote: »

I think you probably heard wrong, the sustained speeds are way above 45mph in the areas directly (and even indirectly) hit, and the gust speeds much higher again.

I didn't, they mentioned 45mph on at least 4 or 5 occasions, I have no idea what context it was in though.

PaulKK

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Barely a Cat 3, as opposed to the Cat 5 that was being hyped up a couple of days ago. I was also "barely" a Cat 4 at Key West (just 2 knots above Cat 3).

I hate hype. This has been a big big deal, moreso for the Caribbean island nations earlier in the week. The footage from the likes of St. Martin and BVI were shocking. But as the week went on it was becoming less likely that we would see that occur in Florida, despite what the networks and many others were saying, based on the false high intensities from the NHC. It's turned out to be exactly that. "Barely" a Cat 4 at the Keys and "barely" a Cat 3 at Marco Island. As Oneiric said, it makes no bit of difference to those affected, so we're arguing over loose change here.

What I or you or the NHC or CNN says makes not one bit of difference to what the residents are dealing with, so I don't see why you think it's "bizarre". Luckily it's not been the disaster it was in the other countries windwise, though we're still not quite experiencing the real problem yet; flooding.

My point was I don't understand why you are constantly trying to downplay what is obviously a disastrous situation for those affected.

I stated in my post that this is a life changing event for those people and hence its bizarre that you are in every post I've seen you make on this thread stating that its not as strong as predicted. Odd that you are trying to take the moral high ground with the exact argument I made.

It appears that you are trying to impose some odd sense of smug superior knowledge when the event that is occurring is still highly dangerous and catastrophic. I personally don't care if its a cat 5 or cat 3, from the footage its obvious that its highly damaging event regardless.

Anyway I'll bow out now and go back to lurking rather than contributing.

Gaoth Laidir

MJohnston wrote: »

I think it's really weird that posters who frequent a weather forum refer to the difference between a predicted Cat 5 and an actual Cat 3 hurricane as 'hype'.

Like seriously, how can people spend so much time reading weather charts and models and not understand probabilistic modelling? I've seen a lot of this around the internet over the last few days, but tbh I expected better from the posters here.

When the data are showing a Cat 5 as highly unlikely then what's the problem with saying so?

The difference in energy between a 105-knot Cat-3 and a 150-knot Cat-5 wind is exacty 100%, i.e. the 150 knots is double the energy of 105 knots. That makes a hell of a difference.

Gaoth Laidir

CNN:

Water levels in Naples have risen 7 feet in 90 mins

MJohnston

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

When the data are showing a Cat 5 as highly unlikely then what's the problem with saying so?

Because there was plenty of other data not saying that?

abarkie

In Orlando - Lake Buena Vista

Heavy rain all day & curfew from 7pm Sunday to 6pm Monday from Orange County Police

The joys of an Orlando holiday

Could be worse, we normally go the Keys after 4 days on Orlando but decided against it this year

Lets hope people stay safe