Major Hurricane Irma

Kermit.de.frog

Still a strong storm, still a Cat 2.

The track is more North currently - toward Orlando. Due to turn more northwest, but unknown whether that will happen.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Starting to wonder if she'll make another trip into the gulf..

Akrasia

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

If Cuba wasn't there... :rolleyes: Cuba was there all along. It didn't just suddenly jump in there out of the blue.

'If cuba wasn't there' isn't what i said. The track of the storm kept changing. It was originally forecast to miss cuba and hit Miami as a strong 4 or weak 5

Akrasia

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I've agreed it's a dangerous event either way. I don't know why people think I said it's not. Luckily it turned out to be about half as dangerous as it would have been had the CNN model turned out to be true.

The key word there is 'luckily.'

When a disaster is looming, the best way to save lives is to highlight the risks, not downplay them. Its better to be over prepared than caught off guard

GritBiscuit

Of course the trouble with overplaying things is you risk the cried wolf effect next time you really need everyone to take you seriously...

jamesthepeach

GritBiscuit wrote: »

Of course the trouble with overplaying things is you risk the cried wolf effect next time you really need everyone to take you seriously...

By the looks of this one I don't think people will think it's been over played.
When the sun comes up all will be revealed.

lucernarian

BumperD wrote: »

I'd hazard a guess. Ego. Some think they know more than the national hurricane centre and if things don't work out the way they said it would, like to seek out anything other than say they were wrong. For god sake I saw one post suggest it was barely storm force when winds were hitting over 140 mph.

Follow the official feeds. The rest here is just some fun/ amateurs chiming in from 5000 miles away , myself included :pac:

It's ****e like this that makes me scratch my head. There's nothing egotistical or bad in being skeptical and actually backing it up with weather station readings.

It honestly looks like the storm degraded a lot on the north coast of Cuba, you don't need to work for the NHC to see that on the images. Gaoth Laidir has posted here on hundreds of weather events in this forum, trying to give as much insight as possible and that kind of posting really grinds my gears when it's not even backed up by anything.

The real question is why the NHC announcements started using overly generous estimates of wind speed and the likes. I'd say it was simply to be safe, get people the hell out of south Florida and to manage a potential backlash if it turned out to be far less apocalyptic. Nothing wrong with that IMO.

Gaoth Laidir

What happened to Naples in the end? Did the surge make it up to that hotel where CNN were? I can't find info on it.

Villain

lucernarian wrote: »

It's ****e like this that makes me scratch my head. There's nothing egotistical or bad in being skeptical and actually backing it up with weather station readings.

It honestly looks like the storm degraded a lot on the north coast of Cuba, you don't need to work for the NHC to see that on the images. Gaoth Laidir has posted here on hundreds of weather events in this forum, trying to give as much insight as possible and that kind of posting really grinds my gears when it's not even backed up by anything.

The real question is why the NHC announcements started using overly generous estimates of wind speed and the likes. I'd say it was simply to be safe, get people the hell out of south Florida and to manage a potential backlash if it turned out to be far less apocalyptic. Nothing wrong with that IMO.

To be fair I think it was the comments on CNN looking storm force at best that annoyed people, but he clarified that after being pulled up on it to say it got worse after that.

Commenting on systems etc based on data and personal knowledge is great and should be encouraged but it also shouldn't be used to downplay what is a serious event. The difference between CAT3 and CAT4 in terms of the effects on peoples lives here is marginal.

As I pointed out earlier in this thread along with the winds, the forecast of up to 500mm of rain along with the storm surge was going to be the major issue.

One person saying the storm is weaker than forecast or than some are saying shouldn't be confused for someone saying the impact isn't bad.

lucernarian

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Gaoth Laidir has provided excellent coverage of this storm all week and has always backed up what he's said with raw data, refreshing to read some actual facts amidst all the sensationalism.


Anyway, winds shouldn't be as big an issue from now on out but I suspect it'll be daybreak tomorrow before we get a real picture of what damage the storm surge and flooding have done, looking on google maps there's a huge amount of waterfront properties all along the coastline so tens of thousands of people could have their homes ruined overnight. I haven't heard much about tides but hopefully high tide doesn't coincide with the surge

(Sorry for double post)
Exactly, it's a disgrace to hear it described as egotism. How many actual stats have to be provided before someone might have a point? No one was saying these things before now as the hurricane was objectively one of the worst of all time when it hit the Carribbean.

And when it turns out that the hurricane was indeed less intense than reported by NOAA et al for Florida, half of the people posting in this thread won't even be reading about that, as it will be less dramatic or exciting or whatever.

My advice to some people: lurk moar.

Gaoth Laidir

The difference between a Cat 3 and 4 is substantial. Remember, energy increase with the square of windspeed, so a mid Cat 4 is about 42% stronger than a mid Cat 3. A high-end Cat 4 has double the energy of a low-end Cat 3.

We have not seen near the same pictures from Florida that we saw from the Caribbean islands. That's where this difference in energy is visible.

But I agree, it's always better to err on the side of caution.

Samaris

I was kinda afraid of this sort of reaction as I mentioned a few pages ago. Everyone was freaked out on the coast (as well they might be) and were talking about the deadliness of the storm for days. It was enough to put the wind up anyone - which was what was intended and needed. No inference on anyone saying it would be weaker! Glad it was.

Relieved it didn't cause annihilation and it was still best to get as many people clear as possible. Hopefully the issues with the evacuation won't make people less inclined to evacuate next time as I strongly reckon there will be a next time.

Villain

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

What happened to Naples in the end? Did the surge make it up to that hotel where CNN were? I can't find info on it.

https://twitter.com/BillKarins/status/907028185547714569

lucernarian

Villain wrote: »

To be fair I think it was the comments on CNN looking storm force at best that annoyed people, but he clarified that after being pulled up on it to say it got worse after that.

Commenting on systems etc based on data and personal knowledge is great and should be encouraged but it also shouldn't be used to downplay what is a serious event. The difference between CAT3 and CAT4 in terms of the effects on peoples lives here is marginal.

As I pointed out earlier in this thread along with the winds, the forecast of up to 500mm of rain along with the storm surge was going to be the major issue.

One person saying the storm is weaker than forecast or than some are saying shouldn't be confused for someone saying the impact isn't bad.

"To be fair". To be fair would not be calling someone egotistical or 12 like-minded... "posters" thanking it. We can't act like because this one was *forecast* to be the worst, and it wasn't, that the disruption is still worse than other cat 3 hurricanes like Katia, which could end up killing more people from landslides etc.

The difference between 3 and 4 is not marginal, especially as the residents of New Orleans could tell you. They are categories for a reason, and are based on sustained readings at ground level.

While people were unfairly picking on one poster, I was telling some friends and family the great news that it got weakened a fair bit at the end of its Cuban trip and that Florida won't resemble Hiroshima as much today. Surely if anything it was news to be welcomed?

tea and coffee

Does anyone know what happened with the chap (plonker) on the boat?

Sunny Dayz

Just switched on CNN before going to work to see how Florida is faring out - CNN now have some poor female presenter out on a balcony in Daytona clinging onto a wall trying to stay upright while being battered by the winds.

"Gutsy journalism" according to those in the CNN studio.

Villain

lucernarian wrote: »

The difference between 3 and 4 is not marginal, especially as the residents of New Orleans could tell you. They are categories for a reason, and are based on sustained readings at ground level.

It can be less than 5 mph so it certainly can be marginal, but my point was the wind speed was just aspect of this storm and when you ave 3.5 million without power I think we can safely say the impact was severe.

uck51js9zml2yt

tea and coffee wrote: »

Does anyone know what happened with the chap (plonker) on the boat?

Saw a clip last night of people being rescued from a boat.

Gaoth Laidir

Sunny Dayz wrote: »

Just switched on CNN before going to work to see how Florida is faring out - CNN now have some poor female presenter out on a balcony in Daytona clinging onto a wall trying to stay upright while being battered by the winds.

"Gutsy journalism" according to those in the CNN studio.

Gutsy or gusty?

Gaoth Laidir

Villain wrote: »

It can be less than 5 mph so it certainly can be marginal, but my point was the wind speed was just aspect of this storm and when you ave 3.5 million without power I think we can safely say the impact was severe.

No one ever said it wasn't a severe event, it just wasn't as severe as some were forecasting, luckily enough. Thankfully the surge doesn't seem to have been as bad as feared. Still a major event and lots of lives affected but it could have been a hell of a lot worse.

Irma has been labelled a "record" storm, the longest recorded Cat-5, etc. When the dust settles and the data are analysed it was not Cat 5 for as long stated, therefore these records may not actually stand. But it all feeds into the hype that storms are getting more severe, etc. If you keep overstating intensities then of course. Had that storm not been heading towards the US then I'm pretty sure its intensity would not have been overstated.

Jpmarn

I heard that Irma is down to a Category 1. I hope Florida escaped with only relatively minor damage. I don't know what the Keys are like when it was hit by then a category 4 storm yesterday morning. It looks like St Martin and the British Virgin Islands won't be ready for visitors until next year. I have visited these places that have been ravaged by Irma in the past few days.

George Sunsnow

Naples apart from a city wide power outage and downed trees didn't fare too badly thankfully

http://www.naplesnews.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2017/09/10/hurricane-irma-naples-mayor-bill-barnett-says-city-mostly-spared/652351001/

NegativeCreep

Maybe shooting a hurricane does work? :pac:

josip

Do ye remember back in 2006 and 2007 when Bertie and the building industry would dismiss any economist making a reasoned case why it was a property bubble and unsustainable?
Anyone at the time who presented data challenging the mainstream agenda, was dismissed as a naysayer or worse.
The last 24 hours on here has reminded me a little of that.

HeidiHeidi

Apologies if this isn't the place for the question - but is there any news of José?

I haven't seen a thread on it yet, is it still barrelling along on the same path as Irma?

DOCARCH

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

Apologies if this isn't the place for the question - but is there any news of José?

I haven't seen a thread on it yet, is it still barrelling along on the same path as Irma?

Jose is going to roll around the Atlantic for the foreseeable.

Villain

josip wrote: »

Do ye remember back in 2006 and 2007 when Bertie and the building industry would dismiss any economist making a reasoned case why it was a property bubble and unsustainable?
Anyone at the time who presented data challenging the mainstream agenda, was dismissed as a naysayer or worse.
The last 24 hours on here has reminded me a little of that.

Bit of the opposite effect here i.e. saying it worse was better for the population, if only Irish people had prepared for the worst property crash!!!

traco

Jpmarn

Irma is now a Tropical storm and has more or less clearing up from northern Florida. It's center is gone out over the Atlantic with nearly all the State of Georgia under rain from the storm. Sustained wind speeds are still up to around 130 kmh.

Jpmarn

According to CNN 5.8 million Electricity customers in Florida are without power.