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Major Hurricane Irma
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The US as a whole gets hit more often by a hurricane somewhere or other. If next year a hurricane is to hit Texas instead, what happens when a bunch of people think back to Irma and figure the risk of looting an abandoned city is worse than the "exaggerated" risk of a hurricane?Theres always that danger, but the reality is they're far better off erring on the "exaggerating" side of things. It might be quite a while before Florida is struck again by a hurricane, and certainly a lot of the Keys was truly badly hit. Also there are plenty of other storms that serve as reminders of what happens when warnings are ignored - Katrina will remain in the public consciousness longer than an Irma.
Also, the NHC was praised for the (accurate) information and warnings prior to Katrina. I was reading Boards back then, and I remember that the models were fairly accurate beforehand, as was the guidance. There was one particularly dire warning which saved maybe thousands of lives, as people still clutched to the idea it would land as a Cat 3 and the levees would protect them as designed. The hurricane was knocking on the door of Cat 4 when it landed, but much of the city had evacuated thanks to those warnings. Point is, it's good to have strong warnings when they're needed but there's no harm in discussing the factual basis for those warnings or "observations" on a forum for weather nerds
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lucernarian wrote: »The US as a whole gets hit more often by a hurricane somewhere or other. If next year a hurricane is to hit Texas instead, what happens when a bunch of people think back to Irma and figure the risk of looting an abandoned city is worse than the "exaggerated" risk of a hurricane?
That's the risk, but then theres also the risk of understating a storm. If I was running a news network, I would always *always* want to be erring on the "exaggeration" side.Also, the NHC was praised for the (accurate) information and warnings prior to Katrina. I was reading Boards back then, and I remember that the models were fairly accurate beforehand, as was the guidance. There was one particularly dire warning which saved maybe thousands of lives, as people still clutched to the idea it would land as a Cat 3 and the levees would protect them as designed. The hurricane was knocking on the door of Cat 4 when it landed, but much of the city had evacuated thanks to those warnings. [Point is, it's good to have strong warnings when they're needed but there's no harm in discussing the factual basis for those warnings or "observations" on a forum for weather nerds
My point wasnt about the guidance of Katrina vs the reality, it was that people will remember how dangerous hurriances be far more than they'll remember storms that some perceive to have been exaggerated. Katrina, Andrew, Sandy, Harvey - they'll stick in the mind. I think the "boy who cried wolf" effect is what is exaggerated myself.0 -
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Elmer Blooker wrote: »Not much about Irma on Morning Ireland?
No doubt when/if it makes landfall on the US coast there will be non stop coverage, a very grave looking Catriona Perry will be on our screens and airwaves morning, noon and night!Elmer Blooker wrote: »At the moment it looks to me that Irma will hit the Leeward Islands, Antigua, Barbuda, St Kitts And Nevis, Anguilla, US and British Virgin Islands, Monserrat, Puerto Rico, Cuba and no doubt many other tiny islands where people will be unable to get into their cars and drive inland.
RTE not covering Irma, obviously waiting for it to hit the US when it will be a REAL hurricane.
Having followed this thread from the beginning, and seen the recent spat over Goath Laidir's interpretation of the data, not to mention the "ah sure it's grand, now that it's fizzled out" it seems that RTE caters perfectly to the boards.ie audience!
Whatever Irma might have been when she stomped across Florida, she has caused massive devastation in other places. The top story and follow-up feature on the French news this evening was a about the complete destruction of the legal system in Saint Martin and Saint Barthélemy. The principal courthouse has been destroyed, along with the attorney general's office. The have lost just about every file on everyone who was due to go to trial.
They've brought in the army to restore a semblance of law and order, because those concerned citizens who would like to report looting (and worse) can't phone 999 - because there are no phones.
The island's main hospital was also destroyed. They're treating people in a marquee for the time being - as best they can until they figure out where their doctors and nurses have ended up.
So maybe if the media weren't quite so obsessed with showing videos of windswept journalists, shelter "victims" complaining about not having had a shower for 24 hours, and holiday-makers who had cut short their too adventurous adventure, people might realise that while Florida ultimately escaped with minor damage this time, the evacuation was a good rehearsal for the Cat 4 or 5 that'll make a direct hit on the state in the future.0
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