Major Hurricane Irma

jimbobaloobob

juneg wrote: »

We don't wish harm on those in the way of natures power so we can be entertained,

Totally agree. While I've learnt so much from people on here about weather unfortunately it provides a medium for a odd sense of star gazing at people's unfortunate situations.
These countries will rebuild again but for now I hope they get the awareness from the media rather that the sole focus being on Florida and even Mar a Lago

RobertKK

Rougies wrote: »

But this isn't facebook where the majority of posts are useless "thoughts and prayers". If the worst does happen at least it will provide science with extremely valuable data to save lives in the future.

But no one should be hoping for the worst.
It is like 'my life, or those I love or my property will be affected, so let it worsen'.
Engineers are able to test building standards, use computer models to know what is likely to happen, we had Haiyan in the Philippines which was the strongest ever recorded, we don't need it stronger to learn anything.

moneymad

If I recall Haiyan winds were recorded at 195mph. If Irma can just strengthen by just a couple of mph - it's the most powerful on record.

dfx-

Models are shifting slightly eastwards towards it missing Cuba, turning 'early' and skirting up the coast. Like Matthew..

How much more damaging could this be if it copied Matthew?

moneymad

Googling I see hurricane Patrica reached 215mph. Wow

justincasey

We are 40 mins from punta canta dom republic bracing ourselves . Currently were on tropical storm alert. Hope Irma passes without much damage to already impoverished country..

BumperD

Was chatting to someone in BVI they said damage been catestrohpic

Kermit.de.frog

Models this morning firming up on a possible miss of Florida for the eye to the east of the state over the ocean.

Would make a huge positive difference for them. Still an impact but nowhere near as severe.

Gaoth Laidir

There seems to be a slight loss in symmetry on both satellite and radar imagery, likely due to a combinarion of an e.r.c. and the terrain of Puerto Rico. Hopefully the slightly northern track through the Turks and Caicos and Inagua island during the e.r.c. will make it drop to a 4.

traco

It does look like Florida may get a reprieve but still 3/4 days to go so I'd still be preparing. Lots of friends over there already evacuated.

Traffic yesterday on I75 (west coast) was taking over 6 hours to travel over 220 miles. Speed was down to 6mph at times. Can only imagine how bad it must be on the east coast side (I95N)

Spare a thought for the poor people of Barbuda, currently in the cone for Jose to skirt them as a Cat 3 in 60 hours or so. Virtually no buildings left intact, no water either. I can see that becoming an evacuation scenario unless the track moves further north.

I think the weather channels guys start at 5am / 10am here so will post their take on things afterwards. They will also have had a look at the latest full update from the NHC so may have some new info.

traco

Ryan Maue has Miami / Dade as dead center on Sunday morning. Just shows how the models vary. Either way it's too close to call

BumperD

Barbuda are being evacuated to Antigua

BumperD

36 hours ago it was in the gulf. Now it's in the Atlantic. It's unstable, that's the only certainty

DOCARCH

traco wrote: »

Spare a thought for the poor people of Barbuda, currently in the cone for Jose to skirt them as a Cat 3 in 60 hours or so. Virtually no buildings left intact, no water either. I can see that becoming an evacuation scenario unless the track moves further north.

Talk this morning of evacuating everybody on Barbuda to Antigua.

DOCARCH

BumperD wrote: »

36 hours ago it was in the gulf. Now it's in the Atlantic. It's unstable, that's the only certainty

Are you mixing up with Katia? Hurricane Katia is currently in the Gulf of Mexico.

Samaris

Been trying to find out what the news is from Barbuda since yesterday, the silence was unnerving from half a country. The French half of St Martins and Barbuda have both been basically destroyed with up to 90-95% of buildings and vehicles badly damaged. Six died in St Martins and a two year old girl died on Barbuda (that much info has come out, but the fate of the other 1600 people is less certain).

It does show how much preparation has improved though. The last time a storm like this hit on this track, the death toll was over a thousand people (I think about 1200?).

At least it doesn't seem to be giving Puerto Rico a straight-on hit, although skirting the edges would, I presume, effect a particularly nasty storm surge on that side of the island?

uck51js9zml2yt

JCX BXC wrote: »

Why is tourism finished? Completely disagree with you here and think you're borderline scaremongering.

Is tourism finished in Thailand? Weren't they absolutely devastated by a Tsunami, which not only offered near no warning, killed thousands and thousands more people than this hurricane will?

90% of buildings damaged/destroyed. $150 million to rebuild according to the president of Barbuda.where will the money come from.
Unlike Thailand where it was localised , this is a national issue and I would think more difficult to recover from.
And if Jose hits what's left will be decimated.

jasper100

Wilder Massive Sinkhole wrote: »

90% of buildings damaged/destroyed. $150 million to rebuild according to the president of Barbuda.where will the money come from.
Unlike Thailand where it was localised , this is a national issue and I would think more difficult to recover from.
And if Jose hits what's left will be decimated.

Pointless trying to rebuild it when another storm could hit next week, next month, next year and do it all again. No insurer will underwrite that.

sideswipe

jasper100 wrote: »

Pointless trying to rebuild it when another storm could hit next week, next month, next year and do it all again. No insurer will underwrite that.

Never underestimate the resilience of people when it comes to their homeland. Hurricanes have always been part of life for them.

10am NHC Forecast discussion. A bit of divergence among the models over the track reemerging.

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
AL112017 500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

Irma has become a little less organized during the past few hours. Data from an Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 0500 UTC indicated that the central pressure had risen to 921 mb and that the winds had decreased both at the 700 mb flight-level and in surface estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer. Since that time, the eye has become cloud filled and the central convection has become somewhat ragged. The initial intensity is lowered to 155 kt, and this could be a little generous.

The next aircraft is scheduled to reach Irma around 1200 UTC. The initial motion is 290/15. The hurricane is currently being steered by the subtropical ridge to the north, and for the next 48 h or so this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in the forward speed. After 48 h, a mid- to upper-level trough digging into the eastern United States is expected to create a break in the ridge and allow Irma to turn northward. The timing of the turn is the most important question and one still filled with uncertainty. The UKMET, UK Ensemble mean, and the NAVGEM are the models showing the latest turn, and they forecast Irma to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near the west coast of the Florida Peninsula.

The ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble mean are in the middle of the model pack and show Irma moving over the southeastern portion of the Florida Peninsula. The GFS, Canadian, and GFS Ensemble mean show the earliest turn and show Irma moving east of the coast of Florida toward the southeastern United States. The new forecast track will best follow the ECMWF, as well as the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and it calls for the center to move over portions of the southeastern Florida Peninsula between 72-96 h and then across the Atlantic into southern South Carolina by 120 h.

Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact track since the average NHC track errors at days 3, 4, and 5 are about 120, 175, and 225 miles, respectively. Irma should remain in warm-water, and a low shear environment for about the next three days, and thus is expected to remain a strong hurricane, most likely Category 5 or 4. Fluctuations in intensity are likely during the time due to internal eyewall replacement cycles. The large-scale models suggest that shear could increase starting at about 72 hr.

However, due to the uncertainty as to whether this will happen, the intensity forecast keeps Irma at category 4 strength until landfall in Florida. The 96-120 h points now have a lower intensity due to the forecast of shear and land interaction, but Irma is still expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the southeastern United States. Since Irma is moving away from Puerto Rico and the radars there, the hourly position estimates are discontinued after this advisory.

KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to the northern coast of Hispaniola today, and the Turks and Caicos and southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and Friday. 2. Hurricane watches are in effect for the northwestern Bahamas and much of Cuba. Irma is likely to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to portions of these areas on Friday and Saturday. 3. The threat of direct hurricane impacts in Florida over the weekend and early next week continues to increase. Hurricane watches will likely be issued for portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula later this morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0900Z 20.0N 68.3W 155 KT 180 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 20.7N 70.5W 150 KT 175 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 21.7N 73.1W 145 KT 165 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 22.3N 75.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 22.8N 77.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 24.5N 80.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 28.5N 80.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 33.0N 81.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND

Itssoeasy

traco

Vids will be up shortly, but slow thru VPN

traco

OK - PC is back from Florida.
Basically still a huge storm, Florida very much in the picture along with Carolina's and Georgia. Concern now of a low to the west that may steer it back inland. Also some concern that Jose may not veer as Northerly as hoped and may double back.

Next update from NHC at 1300 Irish Time


Vids below analyzing the latest info as of 0500 US or 1000 Irish time

mojesius

Live link (supposedly) from Puerto Rico seafront https://youtu.be/rNiJCZ2nCvU

Icepick

Webcams here: www.webcams.travel/map/#lat=20.202528&lng=-69.488901



Saint Barthélemy

from


to

cian1500ww

Latest recon runs show still cat 5:

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/905755808453021696

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/905758473857753090

Cantona's Collars

Anybody wanting to watch live news channels from the region use mobdro.The ticker has multiple channels covering the hurricane. Just click on the one you want to watch. (Android only)

I'm watching The Weather Channel now and they are reporting price gouging in Florida on fuel,water etc.Leeches profiteering on people's fears.

PokeHerKing

zerks wrote:

I'm watching The Weather Channel now and they are reporting price gouging in Florida on fuel,water etc.Leeches profiteering on people's fears.

Or supply and demand

Cantona's Collars

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Or supply and demand

People buying more than they need is a problem being reported.

uck51js9zml2yt

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Or supply and demand

flights out of florida have also gone up!