Major Hurricane Irma

traco

Wilder Massive Sinkhole wrote: »

flights out of florida have also gone up!

To be fair some airlines have capped their fares out of the State. Jet Blue at 159 and another one at 399.

Latest updates at 0800 US or 1300 Irish. No major changes. Jose a possible concern but too far out to forecast. Next NHC complete update at 1100 US / 1600 Irish

George Sunsnow

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/dr-gridlock/wp/2017/09/06/this-delta-flight-flew-into-and-out-of-san-juan-defying-irma/?utm_term=.85825b646f38

josip

I really hope this guy lives on the South Coast



because if it's anywhere else his whole house is going airborne

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/114654.shtml?tswind120#contents

Oneiric 3

Latest WV sequence:




Jose coming into the picture now and seems to be taking a slightly more southern track so far than Irma at this stage.

BorneTobyWilde

Is it not possible to stop it ?

traco

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Latest WV sequence:

Jose coming into the picture now and seems to be taking a slightly more southern track so far than Irma at this stage.

I've seen some tracks for Jose and hope they are anomalies due to the disturbance caused by Irma. One was 10 days out and you couldn't write it. Was also shown on the TV channel before the top of the hour but it's fantasy island stuff so pointless to post at this stage.

Just hoping it goes North into the Atlantic and passes quietly.

Rikand

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Is it not possible to stop it ?

Maybe we could get Kim Jong Un to drop a nuclear weapon into it

Rikand

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Latest WV sequence:




Jose coming into the picture now and seems to be taking a slightly more southern track so far than Irma at this stage.

It formed a lot further south than Irma did - almost on the equator. It has been traveling in more of a NW direction since it formed as opposed to the WNW direction of Irma

BorneTobyWilde

Rikand wrote: »

Maybe we could get Kim Jong Un to drop a nuclear weapon into it

Would an Atomic bomb into the eye of it while it was out in the Atlantic Ocean have stopped it ?

josip

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Would an Atomic bomb into the eye of it while it was out in the Atlantic Ocean have stopped it ?

A more reliable way to stop them would be a butterfly eradication program along the West Coast of Africa.

Samaris

Rikand wrote: »

Maybe we could get Kim Jong Un to drop a nuclear weapon into it

Nature creates hurricanes, humans say "hold my beer" and create a nuclear hurricane.

Jose looks like it's missing the previously hit islands at least, although I assume it will track northwards at some point?

Oneiric 3

Rikand wrote: »

It formed a lot further south than Irma did - almost on the equator. It has been traveling in more of a NW direction since it formed as opposed to the WNW direction of Irma

Yep and the ECM has it drifting away NW'wards before losing its hurricane status by Monday morn (our time). IRMA on the other hand still projected by this model to hold onto its Cat 4 status as it runs up the east coast of Florida. A long way off though.

Gaoth Laidir

Latest windfield, based on aircraft recon data.

sideswipe

Wilder Massive Sinkhole wrote: »

flights out of florida have also gone up!

Wouldn't like to be on a flight that didn't go up;)

R777B

Aerlingus have yet to cancel any flights into or out of Miami or Orlando.... why would they wait til the last minute...hopeless optimism?

josip

R777B wrote: »

Aerlingus have yet to cancel any flights into or out of Miami or Orlando.... why would they wait til the last minute...hopeless optimism?

While both airports will probably close for some period of time, it would still be too early to start cancelling flights.
It's not expected to make landfall in Florida until Saturday/Sunday.
That's still enough time for it to possibly change course sufficiently eastwards that the hurricane force winds almost completely miss the peninsula.

R777B

josip wrote: »

While both airports will probably close for some period of time, it would still be too early to start cancelling flights.
It's not expected to make landfall in Florida until Saturday/Sunday.
That's still enough time for it to possibly change course sufficiently eastwards that the hurricane force winds almost completely miss the peninsula.

Even though MCO already confirmed the airport is closed from 5pm on Saturday onwards? I thought at this stage its almost sure to have major impacts on both airports

R777B

MCO have gone back on their announcement now sorry - seemingly it wasn't meant to be announced and as of now there are no planned closures

josip

R777B wrote: »

Even though MCO already confirmed the airport is closed from 5pm on Saturday onwards? I thought at this stage its almost sure to have major impacts on both airports

Hard to be sure about hurricanes 3 days out.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-katrina-forecast-shift-aug26-2005

traco

1100 US / 1600 Irish time, post NHC update
Hurricane watch officially issued for South Florida
SUrface winds still 170 mph, wind speed at 1000 / 2000 feet around 200 mph as far as I can make out from the analysis.

Next full NHC update will be 1700 US / 2200 Irish

Sorry about some of the quality on this one, connection speed dropped for a bit of it

traco

Re Airports

Miami will close once sustained wind speeds reach 35mph. Not sure about Orlando but would imagine it will be similar. Mentioned in this mornings report.

Opening will depend on the level of damage I suppose as they will need to be cleaned and sure they are safe for use.

Once Irma rolls into Miami expect massive delays on the east coast for several days after due to planes not being where they should be and backlog of passengers

I was caught two years ago I think when JFK closed for a day due to a hurricane. Earliest next connecting flight available via JFK was 5/6 days later and I was travelling from South west Florida.

Icepick

josip wrote: »

While both airports will probably close for some period of time, it would still be too early to start cancelling flights.
It's not expected to make landfall in Florida until Saturday/Sunday.
That's still enough time for it to possibly change course sufficiently eastwards that the hurricane force winds almost completely miss the peninsula.

And even if something that highly unlikely happens, they still cannot fly through it.

JCX BXC

Icepick wrote: »

And even if something that highly unlikely happens, they still cannot fly through it.

What?

Would you like to enlighten us on the conditions that aircraft can fly through or over hurricanes? Coming from your obvious knowledge of the industry id assume you'll be able to tell us.

You do realise, that the winds the aircraft is flying against while cruising at 36,000ft can be even stronger than the current hurricane?

Icepick

Here we go:

Sunday 10th September

Flight EI 141 Dublin to Miami has been cancelled.
Flight EI 140 Miami to Dublin has been cancelled.

Inquitus

The 72h Euro has this one going right up the middle of Florida from the south and strengthening to landfall, it's about as bad as it can be.

JCX BXC

Hard to believe that with the possible carnage of this hurricane, the only thing we're on about is a few flights being cancelled.

Itssoeasy

It's interesting that any meteorologist on tv seems to be very clear about what this storm will bring.

I see meteorologists all the time on tv being clear about the weather regardless of what it is, but the us ones this week, it's a case of "oh balls" this isn't good.

And it seems the experts here on this forum are echoing that same thing. My judge is when the most knowledgeable on the boards.ie weather forum are calling it what it is, then it's time to panic.

traco

Inquitus wrote: »

The 72h Euro has this one going right up the middle of Florida from the south and strengthening to landfall, it's about as bad as it can be.

Disaster if that plays out. Guess I'll be glued to the next advisory. Could still swing back east and offshore.

Please swing east and offshore!!!

Gaoth Laidir

Look at how consistently shoite the GFS has been on intensity. Utter rubbish.

traco

Monday position