Wind Warning for Dublin, Wexford, Wicklow, Galway, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick and W

Gaoth Laidir

Liverpool TAF:

TAF AMD EGGP 122142Z 1221/1318 16018G30KT 9999 SCT025
TEMPO 1221/1318 4000 SHRA BKN012
BECMG 1222/1301 27030G45KT
PROB40 TEMPO 1222/1303 24040G60KT
BECMG 1303/1306 27025G35KT
BECMG 1308/1311 27015G25KT
BECMG 1315/1318 27010KT

mickger844posts

63km/h now the Max gust here in Waterford City
Pressure min was 989mb but is rising now to a current 993mb
www.waterfordweather.com
www.waterfordcityweather.com

George Sunsnow

It's only got noticeably windy here in the Arklow area in the last half hour or so

fraxinus1

Met Eireann forecast downgraded significantly. The whole thing has been a farce. Forget about the UK, before the name Aileen was used, the met eireann forecast was mentioning severe winds. Barely a gale. This kind of hype is what allows the media to exaggerate and run incorrect stories about weather events.

pad199207

Bottomed out at 987mb here

MJohnston

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Met Eireann forecast downgraded significantly. The whole thing has been a farce. Forget about the UK, before the name Aileen was used, the met eireann forecast was mentioning severe winds. Barely a gale. This kind of hype is what allows the media to exaggerate and run incorrect stories about weather events.

Didn't take long for this kind of post to pop up! Where was your meteorological expertise reading the charts yesterday when the wind warning was issued?

It's so easy for posters to come on here when a marginal forecast ends up being incorrect and give it all the "hype" nonsense, but they rarely want to stick their necks out and actually make some predictions.

Kristopherus

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Met Eireann forecast downgraded significantly. The whole thing has been a farce. Forget about the UK, before the name Aileen was used, the met eireann forecast was mentioning severe winds. Barely a gale. This kind of hype is what allows the media to exaggerate and run incorrect stories about weather events.

Well, all day the Beeb forecasts were mentioning windy condtions hitting North Wales and NW England. Those winds could only come from here.

MJohnston

Now this, this is overhyping:

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/907714623658450944

Gaoth Laidir

MJohnston wrote: »

Didn't take long for this kind of post to pop up! Where was your meteorological expertise reading the charts yesterday when the wind warning was issued?

It's so easy for posters to come on here when a marginal forecast ends up being incorrect and give it all the "hype" nonsense, but they rarely want to stick their necks out and actually make some predictions.

They could be accused of egotism if they did...

MJohnston

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

They could be accused of egotism if they did...

That weren't me!

Xenji

It will be interesting to see the max gust here today, Mace Head recorded 103 km/hr on Sunday.

Oscar Bravo

hilarious intro to the late night forecast on Radio1, over to pat clarke in met eireann (silence, followed by the sound of a door opening and someone running into a room) "im here", pat your on air lol

Storm 10

Kristopherus wrote: »

Well, all day the Beeb forecasts were mentioning windy condtions hitting North Wales and NW England. Those winds could only come from here.

The winds might have passed Ireland but just now according to ME the depression is heading into the Irish Sea and depeening rapidly which is where the UK will get this storm

Villain

The storm was named due to the impact on the U.K., a yellow warning here isn't enough to cause it to be a warning but ya nothing at all in Carlow really.

Villain

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/907837657652371457

High enough Gust to be fair

JCX BXC

Forecast gusts didn't occur in Liverpool or Manchester either.

Did the system shift alot?

DOCARCH

JCX BXC wrote: »

Forecast gusts didn't occur in Liverpool or Manchester either.

Did the system shift alot?

Looks like it was a little further south than expected.

Danno

Top gust of just 34mph from "Storm" Aileen.
Sunday's top gust was 48mph and Monday's was 38mph.
Recorded at standard 10 metre height.

I know we're pretty sheltered here in South Laois right on the Kilkenny border, but these "warnings" are going to be ignored if they are being used to warn about ~20mph winds with ~40mph gusts.

There seems to be a growing culture of exaggerating these standard wind events... I could give my thinking on this, but I'll spare it for the CT forum.

MJohnston

Danno wrote: »

Top gust of just 34mph from "Storm" Aileen.
Sunday's top gust was 48mph and Monday's was 38mph.
Recorded at standard 10 metre height.

I know we're pretty sheltered here in South Laois right on the Kilkenny border, but these "warnings" are going to be ignored if they are being used to warn about ~20mph winds with ~40mph gusts.

There seems to be a growing culture of exaggerating these standard wind events... I could give my thinking on this, but I'll spare it for the CT forum.

Another one! Where were your predictions before the event?

Gaoth Laidir

Some fairly strong winds being reported by the platforms in the North Sea (but at much higher than the 10-metre standard heights so not that relevant).

K14-fa-1c Sea (28 m amsl)
METAR EHKV 130725Z AUTO 26062G73KT 4100 -RADZ FEW011 SCT020 BKN025 12/11 Q0988 RERA REDZ

D15-fa-1 Sea (36 m amsl)
METAR EHDV 130925Z AUTO 28062G72KT 3000 -RA FEW004/// SCT009/// BKN014/// 13/10 Q0982 RERA REDZ

L9-ff-1 Sea (30 m amsl)
METAR EHMG 131055Z AUTO 25054G64KT 9000 FEW015 SCT022 BKN035 14/09 Q0986

Storm 10

Got a friend who is stuck in Schiphol Airport with flights in and out delayed due to strong winds, probably ok by now.

average_runner

My wife flew back into Dublin last night around 11pm, plane had to take two attempts to land because of the wind!

Cantona's Collars

JCX BXC wrote: »

Forecast gusts didn't occur in Liverpool or Manchester either.

Did the system shift alot?

A lot of disruption across the UK with roads blocked by fallen trees and overturned lorries,flooding in parts too.

Danno

MJohnston wrote: »

Another one! Where were your predictions before the event?

It's not my remit to give compulsory predictions, however - I am entitled to question those of others especially when my taxes are being used to fund such predictions.

Oneiric 3

MJohnston wrote: »

Another one! Where were your predictions before the event?

I really don't understand the logic of this line you are taking lately. Are comments on an official forecast not valid until one has made a forecast themselves?

MJohnston

Danno wrote: »

It's not my remit to give compulsory predictions, however - I am entitled to question those of others especially when my taxes are being used to fund such predictions.

If you had stretched yourself to make some predictions, you might have noticed that most of our weather systems operate on very fine margins, and the very slight shift of Aileen to the south spared Ireland from much of the forecast yellow wind warnings (which is not a particularly high warning level it must be said) coming to pass.

MJohnston

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I really don't understand the logic of this line you are taking lately. Are comments on an official forecast not valid until one has made a forecast themselves?

Of course not, but it's very easy to weigh in after the fact and point out how the forecasts were incorrect without actually understanding the context in which a forecast was made.

People who post after the fact that the yellow wind warning was exaggerating simply seem to be ignoring that context, in favour of the idea that Met Eireann are for some reason indulging in hype.

In this case, the context is extremely clear when you scroll back to the start of this thread and look at the model charts that Meteorite posted - Aileen was a system that shifted marginally southwards and went from affecting the counties mentioned in the post title to only affecting the south coast. Such a marginal southwards shift, when plenty of models were predicting otherwise, doesn't lend itself (in my opinion) to the idea that ME are exaggerating or hyping anything.

Additionally, we've had a few complaints that the storm was named, which belies a misunderstanding of how they become named, and a rather 'me' attitude to the effects of said storms.

Gaoth Laidir

Aileen was not, and was never going to be, anything of note in Ireland, which is why Met Éireann didn't name it and only issued a standard yellow warning, something that is common enough. The UKMO named the storm based on the much higher potential impact on them. It's not that hard to grasp.

MJohnston

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Aileen was, and was never going to be, anything of note in Ireland, which is why Met Éireann didn't name it and only issued a standard yellow warning, something that is common enough. The UKMO named the storm based on the much higher potential impact on them. It's not that hard to grasp.

Exactly, I don't get all the people saying this was exaggerated or overhyped!

Oneiric 3

MJohnston wrote: »

Of course not, but it's very easy to weigh in after the fact and point out how the forecasts were incorrect without actually understanding the context in which a forecast was made.

People who post after the fact that the yellow wind warning was exaggerating simply seem to be ignoring that context, in favour of the idea that Met Eireann are for some reason indulging in hype.

In this case, the context is extremely clear when you scroll back to the start of this thread and look at the model charts that Meteorite posted - Aileen was a system that shifted marginally southwards and went from affecting the counties mentioned in the post title to only affecting the south coast. Such a marginal southwards shift, when plenty of models were predicting otherwise, doesn't lend itself (in my opinion) to the idea that ME are exaggerating or hyping anything.

Additionally, we've had a few complaints that the storm was named, which belies a misunderstanding of how they become named, and a rather 'me' attitude to the effects of said storms.

What 'context' are you on about though? There was a yellow warning given. The question is, did this 'storm' warrant such a warning? I am genuinely not sure as haven't had time to look at yesterday's wind states. I do recall, however, that there was mention on the Met site of 'severe winds' along the east coast for yesterday. Did this come to pass?

Whether you accept it or not, most people are going to take what a Met service is going to tell them at face value (as is the press) Most people are too busy with other things in the lives to have the time put such forecasts into some sort of illusionary 'context'.