Ryanair Strike implications re Cancellations NO INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS POSTS

Van.Bosch

Living Off The Splash wrote: »

Dublin to Santander is over 2000km's so who knows? Maybe it's the flights with the least amount of profit in them?

I'd say it's the flights with the fewest pax on them, when both segments are considered.

Collie D

TheBeach wrote: »

When will flights they are canceling tomorrow (Monday 18 th) be announced I wonder? Abroad with two kids here.

They say they have sent emails for all flights cancelled up to Wednesday so check your mail. If nothing you SHOULD be OK.

I don't understand why they don't just make the decision now on which flights will be cancelled for the whole period.

Noxegon

That would be useful. I'm supposed to fly with them next weekend, and I would like to book alternative travel now if I'm going to need it.

dixiefly

Collie D wrote: »

They say they have sent emails for all flights cancelled up to Wednesday so check your mail. If nothing you SHOULD be OK.

I don't understand why they don't just make the decision now on which flights will be cancelled for the whole period.

I think its because they may not know the full extent of their issues.

I wonder is this issue an indicator of a much bigger problem and could it be a case study for looking into current or developing management practices. I am not close to it but my perception is that Ryanair have achieved their success with a volume / efficiency model that is assisted / developed using complex computer modelling and predictive analytics. These, of their nature, are built on many assumptions and, if some of those assumptions turn out to be false then the models will lose accuracy and, if there is no slack built in, problems can arise.

For instance, if the models were based on an attrition rate for pilots of, say 2%, and it turned out to be 12% then that would have a big effect if there was no slack in the model (i.e. pilots working long / max hours already).

billie1b

Van.Bosch wrote: »

I'd say it's the flights with the fewest pax on them, when both segments are considered.

Thats what we were thinking too but then when we had a look at the book loads of canx flights so far the loads were all between 170-189 and over booked flights also.

stevek93

My first holiday in 14 years I am set to departure 1st October and this happens, I booked with another vendor in case of cancellations. Is it possible to get a refund now?

mr.anonymous

Would the cancellations not better be decided by the refunds and compensation due?
Is it becoming apparent that's it certain bases that are out of legal crews?

JCX BXC

TheBeach wrote: »

When will flights they are canceling tomorrow (Monday 18 th) be announced I wonder? Abroad with two kids here.

They've cancelled all flights until Wednesday (20th), If you haven't got an email, you're fine.

JCX BXC

Van.Bosch wrote: »

I'd say it's the flights with the fewest pax on them, when both segments are considered.

I'd say it's yield more than PAX, eg Newcastle has been cancelled, and that flights always packed to the rims, however on mainly €9.99 fares!

Also it appears we're seeing which bases have staff shortages and which don't. Appears Shannon and Cork haven't had any issues yet.

JCX BXC

mel.b wrote: »

Does anyone know when FR will be making public the list of cancellations for Tues. Nothing is on their website yet. I have a flight BVA-DUB that was booked with Sweete through a promotion. They have taken care of everything - i haven't had a single email from FR about the flight (even the standard ones like i received on Sat about a flight i have in Dec). Therefore i presume any notification will go to Sweete. I'd hope they are on the ball and would let me know ASAP but i'd rather double check myself.

Again, they've cancelled flights until Wednesday, if you don't have an email, chances are your flights going ahead! Although, did you get a confirmation email? You could have put the email in wrong.

It's not like this information is secretly held, Ryanair are trying to emphasize this!

1123heavy

PAX loading I imagine has little to do with it. A flight that is empty outbound may be full on the return leg, or may be scheduled to do a follow on flight to a 3rd destination with a full load.

I obviously don't know the full story here, but from my experience of working in an airline and how I witnessed OCC do their stuff, the primary consideration is getting as many people to where they need to be as quick possible, i.e. minimum number of disrupted passengers. For example, if there are 120 people going to Newcastle, combine them with the near empty Leeds flight and they can get the bus from there, but don't cancel the flight with 70 people going to Tenerife, an island, if at all possible.

The above is just a basic example of what I saw and I would imagine Ryanair have a similar if not the exact same goal right now. It really isn't as straight forward as above though, because that flight to Newcastle may be then going onto somewhere else where it's not possible to bus people or find them an alternative flight to, so they may operate it just because of the follow up flight it has to do and those passengers to Leeds are then lucky it didn't get chopped.

Truth is they have so many aircraft that have to be in so many places doing so many things, with so many considerations of where each aircraft is meant to be next it is not possible to take from it any sort of pattern, because we don't know the full story behind the scenes.

I tell ya one thing and it's that I feel very sorry for the people in OCC, schedule planning in the 60 fleet airline I was in was complicated enough I gave up trying to ask/understand the flow, can only imagine what it's like in Ryanair!

The Rape of Lucretia

1123heavy wrote: »

I obviously don't know the full story here, but from my experience of working in an airline and how I witnessed OCC do their stuff, the primary consideration is getting as many people to where they need to be as possible, i.e. minimum number of disrupted passengers.

This is Ryanair though where the maxim is make as much money as possible. In the end passengers will stick with you because you offer them the best price.
If Ryanair has a choice between cancelling a flight with load of €9.99 refunds rather than €200 passengers, they will cancel the former. In their view, this is still the best customer service policy - minimising overall flight costs by refunding as little as possible. Its a different model to the do the best for the passengers, and come what may on the bottom line. Which is not to say its a bad one, even for the customer.

ted1

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Living Off The Splash wrote: »

Dublin to Santander is over 2000km's so who knows? Maybe it's the flights with the least amount of profit in them?

I'd say it's the flights with the fewest pax on them, when both segments are considered.

Is it a case if following the plane and see if the routes effected are all serviceable by the sane plane

JCX BXC

http://careers.ryanair.com/pilots/

Found this a little funny, Ryanair offering a once off €10,000 bonus to direct entry 737 rated pilots.

etselbbuns

De Sunday disappearances

Locker10a

etselbbuns wrote: »

De Sunday disappearances
PLEASE Don't quote long lists when they are in the message before

SO much for 30-40 per-day...

The Rape of Lucretia

Locker10a wrote: »

SO much for 30-40 per-day...

Ryanair has explained this. They said 40 per day on average. But front loaded on some days to permit fewer cancels on busier ones.

JCX BXC

Locker10a wrote: »

SO much for 30-40 per-day...

40-50 was the narrative, however granted it's still alot over that.

Impetus

Ryanair published a list of flight cancellations covering the next few days.

I (and I am sure many travellers) don’t plan over such a short time horizon. I typically reserve a flight several weeks in advance.

This is not an emergency event, which Ryanair management suddenly became aware of. If it is, I would suggest that the people in question consider their position, and the Irish governments communications policies, and continued use of Common Law rather than Civil Law (which most countries have ‘upgraded to’ centuries ago.

Questions:

1. Is Ryanair’s reservation system today selling flights that risk cancellation due to this un-planned for vacation issue? If Ryanair is selling tickets for flights that can’t be crewed due to holiday entitlements, I would call this ticket fraud and would expect the state that licenses Ryanair to fine the company heavily and to compensate victims of cancellation adequately – which would include damages for loss and enjoyment or consequent business losses of the customer, compensation for hotel costs in hotels of the standard that the travel guest normally uses, as well as the last minute cost of making substitute reservations on other carriers – eg while Swiss and Lufthansa are often cheaper than Ryanair, they are seldom cheaper for last minute reservations.

2. It is of no use to most travellers to receive an email a day or two before travelling (or even worse turn up at an airport to be told the flight is cancelled for holiday reasons). (I get so much email spam from airlines, (and Ryanair is not the worst offender), my email management system often sends emails from airlines to a spam box.)

3. Anybody with a connection to Ireland should feel embarrassed in the way that Ryanair has mis-managed this issue – which has got hectares of print coverage, in Europe and elsewhere, not to mention TV and other media.

Perhaps it is just showing up the country for what it is? Grossly incompetent comes to mind as one of many phrases one might use.

etselbbuns

etselbbuns wrote: »

De Sunday disappearances

That was the published list. Now it transpires that Ryanair cancelled 82 flights on Sunday 17th

1123heavy

JCX BXC wrote: »

http://careers.ryanair.com/pilots/

Found this a little funny, Ryanair offering a once off €10,000 bonus to direct entry 737 rated pilots.

They have been offering that for a good number of months now, they really have been desperate for a long time. One thing I definitely don't buy is that this has anything to do with anything other than a severe pilot shortage brought on themselves by a total lack of regard for their pilots over a number of years. To come along after years of direct and indirect insults and offer 10k for new joiners (what about the guys who were there for years putting up with their sh!t?) is cheap. The truth is that the tables have turned, whilst we haven't returned to the years of glamour that aviation once was, we're certainly not in desperate times from a pilot's perspective. Many good opportunities out their and Ryanair's arrogance has seen them drop to the bottom of everyone's list.

This fiasco will form a part of many a business and management course in years to come, as a case study of "what not to do".

HeidiHeidi

Can anyone tell me where to find the lists of cancelled (so far) flights on the website?

I'm flying on Tuesday, so assume that's ok - but would like to get an idea during the week if my return flight is at risk (it hasn't appeared on any lists so far as far as I can tell, but is to/from Dublin).

Can't see the lists/information anywhere on the website, you'd think they'd make it blindingly obvious with flashing lights or something! (or maybe a night shift has made my brain exceptionally dull....)

etselbbuns

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

Can anyone tell me where to find the lists of cancelled (so far) flights on the website?...

https://www.ryanair.com/ie/en/useful-info/help-centre/travel-updates/flight-cancellations7
You'll get an email with a few days notice if it's cancelled.

ED E

1123heavy wrote: »

They have been offering that for a good number of months now, they really have been desperate for a long time. One thing I definitely don't buy is that this has anything to do with anything other than a severe pilot shortage brought on themselves by a total lack of regard for their pilots over a number of years.

Something the Easyjet show highlighted was the change in airline sponsorship to self funded training, think we'll see that restored to help FR build capacity or is that unheard of from LCCs?

HeidiHeidi

etselbbuns wrote: »

https://www.ryanair.com/ie/en/useful-info/help-centre/travel-updates/flight-cancellations7
You'll get an email with a few days notice if it's cancelled.

Cheers, so I gather.

Just want to keep an eye on it throughout the week.

Thanks.

Impetus

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

Can anyone tell me where to find the lists of cancelled (so far) flights on the website?

I'm flying on Tuesday, so assume that's ok - but would like to get an idea during the week if my return flight is at risk (it hasn't appeared on any lists so far as far as I can tell, but is to/from Dublin).

Can't see the lists/information anywhere on the website, you'd think they'd make it blindingly obvious with flashing lights or something! (or maybe a night shift has made my brain exceptionally dull....)

You are talking planning, disclosure and implementation of the plan. This company seems to be unable to work out an accurate plan for the current / following days' flights.... Equifax's shares fell from $142 to $92, once the public discovered the company was incompetent when it came to information management. Ryanair seems to be very eager to collect personal data on customers, and yet appealingly poor at publishing data on its own flight programme into the future.

EchoIndia

I would say the regulators are considering carefully how to deal with this. If the issue is of the scale that FR suggests, it should not be beyond their ability (it's certainly not a funding issue) to source at least some hired-in capacity, especially as the summer peak is now past.

1123heavy

ED E wrote: »

Something the Easyjet show highlighted was the change in airline sponsorship to self funded training, think we'll see that restored to help FR build capacity or is that unheard of from LCCs?

The problem though is not with low hour pilots who will make the captains of tomorrow, it is that the captains of today, for the most part, want to have little or nothing to do with Ryanair.

The company have thousands of CVs of 200hr guys who've paid for their own training and looking for their first gig, there's also thousands more training at their own expense as we speak, Ryanair have no need to fund people's licenses.

1123heavy

EchoIndia wrote: »

I would say the regulators are considering carefully how to deal with this. If the issue is of the scale that FR suggests, it should not be beyond their ability (it's certainly not a funding issue) to source at least some hired-in capacity, especially as the summer peak is now past.

Plenty of wet lease airlines across the continent who'll turn up at a moment's notice ... they just don't wanna pay for that solution!

Fred Swanson

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