Major Hurricane Maria

JCX BXC

Magnitude 7.1 Earthquake hits Mexico, very coincidental that there was also an earthquake in Mexico when Irma was in the Carribbean!

Akrasia

JCX BXC wrote: »

Magnitude 7.1 Earthquake hits Mexico, very coincidental that there was also an earthquake in Mexico when Irma was in the Carribbean!

not really
Hundreds of earthquakes happen every day

Magnitude 7 earthquakes happen several times a month, and when one location has an earthquake, the likelyhood of more earthquakes following soon after is much much higher

hawkwing

Akrasia wrote: »

not really
Hundreds of earthquakes happen every day

Magnitude 7 earthquakes happen several times a month, and when one location has an earthquake, the likelyhood of more earthquakes following soon after is much much higher

>Mag 7 earthquakes do not happen several times a month,there is usually less than 15 per year and the 7.1 just now is only the 5th >Mag7 this year so far.

JCX BXC

Even rarer in the same country too.

I'm not saying they're related, I'm saying it's quite coincidental. Make of that what you will!

Meteorite58

Last recon showed a pressure of 916mb and still falling.

https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/910241542157295617

Donegal Storm

Worrying that there's still seemingly no news coming from Dominica, hopefully a sign that there's been no major damage but it was the same with Barbuda last time and as we saw then, the entire island was flattened with all communication lines down. I see the prime minister had to be rescued after his roof blew off but there's not been any other reports all day

GritBiscuit

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Worrying that there's still seemingly no news coming from Dominica, hopefully a sign that there's been no major damage but it was the same with Barbuda last time and as we saw then, the entire island was flattened with all communication lines down. I see the prime minister had to be rescued after his roof blew off but there's not been any other reports all day

I was just reading the thread in the hope there had been some update about Dominica - seems to be nothing more than the Prime Minister's facebook post...which is a bit worrisome.

Roosevelt Skerrit, the prime minister of Dominica, has posted an update on Facebook in which he asks for help for his devastated island:

Initial reports are of widespread devastation. So far we have lost all what money can buy and replace.

My greatest fear for the morning is that we will wake to news of serious physical injury and possible deaths as a result of likely landslides triggered by persistent rains.

So far the winds have swept away the roofs of almost every person I have spoken to or otherwise made contact with. The roof to my own official residence was among the first to go and this apparently triggered an avalanche of torn-away roofs in the city and the countryside.

Come tomorrow morning we will hit the road, as soon as the all-clear is given, in search of the injured and those trapped in the rubble.

I am honestly not preoccupied with physical damage at this time, because it is devastating … indeed, mind-boggling. My focus now is in rescuing the trapped and securing medical assistance for the injured.

We will need help, my friend, we will need help of all kinds.

It is too early to speak of the condition of the air and seaports, but I suspect both will be inoperable for a few days. That is why I am eager now to solicit the support of friendly nations and organisations with helicopter services, for I personally am eager to get up and get around the country to see and determine what’s needed.

Taken from HERE

Meteorite58

Some footage here of Dominica, awful situation.

https://twitter.com/pahowho/status/910227944089559041

Akrasia

hawkwing wrote: »

>Mag 7 earthquakes do not happen several times a month,there is usually less than 15 per year and the 7.1 just now is only the 5th >Mag7 this year so far.

I phrased it poorly, i meant to say more than once a month. I was basing it off what IRIS say on their website

On average, Magnitude 2 and smaller earthquakes occur several hundred times a day world wide. Major earthquakes, greater than magnitude 7, happen more than once per month. "Great earthquakes", magnitude 8 and higher, occur about once a year.

Todays earthquake is an aftershock of the stronger earthquake that happened 11 days ago

Anyway, all this is off topic because theres no link between earthquakes and hurricanes

Nabber

At leas Lee is dissipating, so there may be some relief in that.

Rikand

Nabber wrote: »

At leas Lee is dissipating, so there may be some relief in that.

It was just heading out into the Atlantic anyways

GritBiscuit

International Space Station passes over eye of Maria today...

https://twitter.com/Space_Station/status/910223646702088193

Gaoth Laidir

Nabber wrote: »

At leas Lee is dissipating, so there may be some relief in that.

Rikand wrote: »

It was just heading out into the Atlantic anyways

The NHC mention the possibility of its remnants reforming a tropical cyclone over the weekend...

1. A small low pressure area, the remnants of Lee, is producing disorganized shower activity about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for redevelopment of a tropical cyclone by the weekend while the system moves northwestward to northward over the central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Maria is currently right in the lowest shear area it could be in. Hopefully it catches more shear soon enough.

Gaoth Laidir

lucernarian wrote: »

What is the 300P? Just a typo or of meteorological significance?

P99KT means "greater than 99 knots"

Meteorite58

The NHC saying Maria will be at Cat 5 intensity when it moves over the U.S virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, sustained winds of 145 kt / 165mph.

Gaoth Laidir

St. Croix TAF is not too remarkable (highest winds 50 gust 80 knots). Seems low, considering Maria will pass only about 20-30 miles to the south as a Cat 5.

TISX 191742Z 1918/2018 03020G30KT 5SM -SHRA SCT020 BKN030
FM192000 02035G50KT 3SM +TSRA SCT020 BKN030CB
FM192330 01050G80KT 1SM +TSRA SCT020CB BKN030
FM200300 13050G80KT 1SM +TSRA SCT020CB BKN030
FM201000 20025G40KT 3SM +TSRA BKN030CB

Meteorite58

Latest recon measuring 909 -910 mb with estimated surface winds of 175mph in Maria's Northern eyewall.

BumperD

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Worrying that there's still seemingly no news coming from Dominica, hopefully a sign that there's been no major damage but it was the same with Barbuda last time and as we saw then, the entire island was flattened with all communication lines down. I see the prime minister had to be rescued after his roof blew off but there's not been any other reports all day

I saw pictures , including arial, from someone who forwarded them. Place is destroyed, lots of mud slides etc. I'd be shocked if there are no fatalities.

Meteorite58

Reading from Levi Cowan ' Only 9 Atlantic hurricanes have had a pressure lower than #Maria's ~909 mb based on 910 mb dropsonde with 14 kt surface wind

And Maria is still strengthtening over warm deep waters.



https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/910277443876982784

Samaris

Something that could be impacting is that while Irma stirred up the water - which should churn up cooler water that doesn't feed following hurricanes - it only ended up churning more warm water up from beneath. By any chance was anyone looking at the SSTs after Irma passed over?

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

Oh, found some anyway, although it's only every few days. Bit of cooling in patches in the Carribbean between just before Irma started up and Maria moving in, more cooling in the Gulf which seems to follow Katia's route, I think. Despite all the stirring though, water surface temperatures remained high in terms of SSTAs. If I'm reading that right, which I might not be.

Gaoth Laidir

It's Ocean Heat Content that's more important for intensification, not just SST. This measures the depth of the water >26.5 °C. Maria is currently in an area of around 100 kJ/cm2, with around >50 the minimum needed for rapid intensification.

Icepick

JCX BXC wrote: »

Even rarer in the same country too.

I'm not saying they're related, I'm saying it's quite coincidental. Make of that what you will!

earthquakes are common.
Big ones (6+) are not



sorry about the derail

Icepick

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Worrying that there's still seemingly no news coming from Dominica, hopefully a sign that there's been no major damage but it was the same with Barbuda last time and as we saw then, the entire island was flattened with all communication lines down. I see the prime minister had to be rescued after his roof blew off but there's not been any other reports all day

Impossible Dominica wasn't heavily damaged unfortunately

It's a magnificent island full of friendly people. This is a disaster on several levels as agriculture and tourism are very important to their economy.

Samaris

Ah, thanks Gaoth Laidir - I must do some more study into meteorology and related events, most of mine has been on wider climate rather than direct events.

Regarding Dominica, no official word yet, but outside world is gleaning bits and pieces from a flyover and from some ham radio operators in the area. Unconfirmed reports suggest that up to 90% of the buildings on the island are badly damaged and god knows what it's done to things like drinking water and wastewater systems.

Virgin Islands didn't get a direct hit (although I think that's ongoing), but skirted south of the southernmost island, St Croix, doing a fair amount of damage windwise, but nothing like the devastation that Dominica's direct hit caused.

She's currently got sustained winds of 175mph, but there seems to be some concern that she could intensify further yet?

Mind you, you watch these things happening from afar and have to wonder how people can live on the islands with the risk of something like this happening every year. I suppose if you live around it it doesn't seem such a high risk until a big one hits.

traco

Caribbean news report about Dominica
http://wicnews.com/caribbean/dominica-devastation-emerges-fatalities-90-buildings-damaged-44575828/

The flyover video (CDEMA) is on twitter but not sure if its confirmed as accurate yet.

Looks like they got hit bad, there was a ham radio transmitting for a while but cant find the link.

PR is probably in the thick of it now.

Gaoth Laidir

Latest intensity at 0800UTC has it weakened slightly to 160 mph and pressure up to 917 hPa.

...400 AM AST POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE... ...MARIA'S EYEWALL OVER VIEQUES... A sustained wind of 68 mph (109 km/h) with a wind gust to 83 mph (133 km/h) was recently reported in Fajardo, Puerto Rico. A sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a wind gust to 63 mph (102 km/h) was recently reported at San Juan International Airport.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM AST...0800 UTC
...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...17.8N 65.4W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSE OF VIEQUES
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES

Floki

Getting off topic slightly but it has been discussed here.

A Link between Hurricanes causing Earthquakes.

So if I was to make a connection between Hurricanes causing Earthquakes the only plausible way that I could think about a connection would be to compare the earths surface to a bedsheet or a table cloth.

Now before everyone switches off I'll try and quickly explain.
So the earths surface is a bedsheet.
Now a hurricane is an area of extremely low air pressure (so not having the normal air pressure pressing down on the land or sea).
We'll compare a hurricane in the example of the earth being a sheet to a human hand. So the hurricane is a human hand.

Right the hurricane comes along and pulls up the sheet slightly or more depending on the depression on the low pressure.
But the earth is not just one sheet covering the earth but multiples of sheets pushing or pulling on one another.

So back to explaining how it could cause an earthquake. The hurricane pulls up the sheet. Do this on a bed or flat surface, even better do this with a sheet and have another sheet edge to edge on the flat surface with this sheet but not stitched together. Pull up one sheet slightly and a gap will appear between the two sheets. So this might explain how a hurricane deep enough could cause an earthquake hundreds of miles away on the boundaries of the earths tectonic plates.
The plates might have been wanting to move for a long time but the hurricane pulling on one plate slightly could be the trigger to set off the rapid movement of the earthquake, like a trigger on a gun.

It's the only way I can explain a link between the two if I was forced to do so.:rolleyes:

Gaoth Laidir

..MARIA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR YABUCOA PUERTO RICO...

Geostationary satellite images and surface observations indicate that the center of Hurricane Maria made landfall near Yabucoa, Puerto Rico, around 615 AM AST. A sustained wind 60 mph (96 km/h) with a wind gust to 113 mph (182 km/h) was recently reported at Yabucoa Harbor, Puerto Rico. A National Ocean Service tide gauge at Yabucoa Harbor, Puerto Rico, recently reported a water level of 4.3 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW).

SUMMARY OF 635 AM AST...1035 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...18.0N 65.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM WSW OF VIEQUES
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES $$

Gaoth Laidir

Floki wrote: »

Getting off topic slightly but it has been discussed here.

A Link between Hurricanes causing Earthquakes.

So if I was to make a connection between Hurricanes causing Earthquakes the only plausible way that I could think about a connection would be to compare the earths surface to a bedsheet or a table cloth.

Now before everyone switches off I'll try and quickly explain.
So the earths surface is a bedsheet.
Now a hurricane is an area of extremely low air pressure (so not having the normal air pressure pressing down on the land or sea).
We'll compare a hurricane in the example of the earth being a sheet to a human hand. So the hurricane is a human hand.

Right the hurricane comes along and pulls up the sheet slightly or more depending on the depression on the low pressure.
But the earth is not just one sheet covering the earth but multiples of sheets pushing or pulling on one another.

So back to explaining how it could cause an earthquake. The hurricane pulls up the sheet. Do this on a bed or flat surface, even better do this with a sheet and have another sheet edge to edge on the flat surface with this sheet but not stitched together. Pull up one sheet slightly and a gap will appear between the two sheets. So this might explain how a hurricane deep enough could cause an earthquake hundreds of miles away on the boundaries of the earths tectonic plates.
The plates might have been wanting to move for a long time but the hurricane pulling on one plate slightly could be the trigger to set off the rapid movement of the earthquake, like a trigger on a gun.

It's the only way I can explain a link between the two if I was forced to do so.:rolleyes:

The effect of reduced atmospheric pressure acting on the sea surface is negligible compared to the magnitude of the trillions of tonnes of moving water over the plates or the pressure between the plates themselves. The hurricane winds only act on the top tens of metres of ocean, so it's not like you're parting the seas with the hurricane, etc.

Floki

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The effect of reduced atmospheric pressure acting on the sea surface is negligible compared to the magnitude of the trillions of tonnes of moving water over the plates or the pressure between the plates themselves. The hurricane winds only act on the top tens of metres of ocean, so it's not like you're parting the seas with the hurricane, etc.

It might be better not to think about parting seas but more subtle changes.
I think you're thinking about the wind instead of air pressure allowing land or land under sea to rise slightly.
Think more in the line of land atm still rising after the retreat of the glaciers thousands of years ago but just a little bit now from a deep depression and then the obvious reshift back down after it's over.


The nearest analogy might be perhaps a hairline trigger on a crossbow?

I think before the first earthquake there were 3 hurricanes in a row in the carribean now the greatest pullage would be in a direct line from the hurricanes to the plate boundary.
Was the earthquake in line with these?

(I'm chancing my arm here).

Edit: if I'm right what you're saying is that more seawater rushes in underneath a deep depression over sea. So that more weight would be put on the land underneath that area of sea. So instead of that land rising slightly it would sink slightly with the increased weight of this extra mass of seawater on top. But still pullage on the plate edge.