Major Hurricane Maria

Icepick

Floki wrote: »

Getting off topic slightly but it has been discussed here.

A Link between Hurricanes causing Earthquakes.

So if I was to make a connection between Hurricanes causing Earthquakes the only plausible way that I could think about a connection would be to compare the earths surface to a bedsheet or a table cloth.

Now before everyone switches off I'll try and quickly explain.
So the earths surface is a bedsheet.
Now a hurricane is an area of extremely low air pressure (so not having the normal air pressure pressing down on the land or sea).
We'll compare a hurricane in the example of the earth being a sheet to a human hand. So the hurricane is a human hand.

Right the hurricane comes along and pulls up the sheet slightly or more depending on the depression on the low pressure.
But the earth is not just one sheet covering the earth but multiples of sheets pushing or pulling on one another.

So back to explaining how it could cause an earthquake. The hurricane pulls up the sheet. Do this on a bed or flat surface, even better do this with a sheet and have another sheet edge to edge on the flat surface with this sheet but not stitched together. Pull up one sheet slightly and a gap will appear between the two sheets. So this might explain how a hurricane deep enough could cause an earthquake hundreds of miles away on the boundaries of the earths tectonic plates.
The plates might have been wanting to move for a long time but the hurricane pulling on one plate slightly could be the trigger to set off the rapid movement of the earthquake, like a trigger on a gun.

It's the only way I can explain a link between the two if I was forced to do so.:rolleyes:

No

No hurricane close to the epicentre anyway.

Gaoth Laidir

Floki wrote: »

It might be better not to think about parting seas but more subtle changes.
I think you're thinking about the wind instead of air pressure allowing land or land under sea to rise slightly.
Think more in the line of land atm still rising after the retreat of the glaciers thousands of years ago but just a little bit now from a deep depression and then the obvious reshift back down after it's over.


The nearest analogy might be perhaps a hairline trigger on a crossbow?

I think before the first earthquake there were 3 hurricanes in a row in the carribean now the greatest pullage would be in a direct line from the hurricanes to the plate boundary.
Was the earthquake in line with these?

(I'm chancing my arm here).

Edit: if I'm right what you're saying is that more seawater rushes in underneath a deep depression over sea. So that more weight would be put on the land underneath that area of sea. So instead of that land rising slightly it would sink slightly with the increased weight of this extra mass of seawater on top. But still pullage on the plate edge.

It's not plausible, but if you can find any literature on it please do share it.

Floki

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It's not plausible, but if you can find any literature on it please do share it.

Every theory starts with a thought.:D;)

Oneiric 3

DinkyDinosaur

Scary stuff

Akrasia

Floki wrote: »

Every theory starts with a thought.:D;)

When people try to link hurricanes and earthquakes on the internet, it's usually to do with some mad secret super weapon that they think is causing the hurricanes.

Conspiracy theorists who think HAARP is used to control the weather also think that whatever weapon can cause a hurricane, must also be capable of causing an earthquake.

Sofiztikated

Akrasia wrote: »

When people try to link hurricanes and earthquakes on the internet, it's usually to do with some mad secret super weapon that they think is causing the hurricanes.

Conspiracy theorists who think HAARP is used to control the weather also think that whatever weapon can cause a hurricane, must also be capable of causing an earthquake.

I just assumed there might be a link with something to do with pressure.

I'm not a scientician though.

Still no word from Dominica. Mrs Sof's sister and partner are there. I'm still pushing the "It's fine, it's just the phones are down" line, but there's definite worry in the air.

Akrasia

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Just awful luck, the eye couldn't have taken a worse path for Puerto Rico

Hopefully it stays north of Dominican republic and Haiti

Akrasia

Sofiztikated wrote: »

I just assumed there might be a link with something to do with pressure.

I'm not a scientician though.

Still no word from Dominica. Mrs Sof's sister and partner are there. I'm still pushing the "It's fine, it's just the phones are down" line, but there's definite worry in the air.

I hope they're just hunkered down somewhere waiting for communications to be re-established

Gaoth Laidir

Maria will be out over much lower ocean heat content and increased shear when it coasts out soon north of Puerto Rico. Unfortunately the damage is already done.

OCH



SHEAR

Gaoth Laidir

Down to 100 knots , Cat 3 now.

At 20/1800 UTC, major Hurricane Maria is located near 18.4N 66.9W or about 13 nm W of Arecibo, Puerto Rico. The present movement of Maria is northwest at 10 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt, Category 3. Numerous strong convection is within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 210 nm of the center. Maria is moving across Puerto Rico today, and will pass just north of the northeast coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday.

Gaoth Laidir

Cat 2 now, 95 kts, 957 hPa.


Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
AL152017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft found that Maria's center moved off the northwestern coast of Puerto Rico just before 1800 UTC, but the hurricane appears to have taken quite a hit from the high mountains of the island. The aircraft measured a maximum flight-level wind of 106 kt to the east of the center and SFMR surface winds as high as 91 kt. The initial intensity is therefore set to 95 kt. The central pressure has also risen considerably, and the latest report from the airplane is 957 mb

Meteorite58

Seems like terrible damage in Puerto Rico with reports of 100% of houses have lost power. Huge flooding reported with between 18 and 24 inches of rain falling ( 35 inches in places ). Storm surge of 6 to 9 ft.


https://twitter.com/OmarAndre606/status/910600013599985664

https://twitter.com/NASA_SPoRT/status/910573391027085312

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/910548336326914048

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/910497315898761217

Meteorite58

NHC

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's core is moving away from the northwestern coast of Puerto
Rico, and strong winds and storm surge flooding should subside
through early Thursday. However, heavy rainfall is expected to
continue, and catastrophic flash flooding is occurring on the
island, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Everyone in
Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local officials to
avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions.

2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous
wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 18.8N 67.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 19.5N 68.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 20.5N 69.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 21.6N 70.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 22.9N 71.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 25.8N 72.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 29.0N 72.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 31.5N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

So on it goes, most of the models not showing re intensification ( although not fully ruled out ). The NHC saying that some weakening expected by day 4 and 5 due to increased shear, as well as Maria possibly moving over the cold wake of Tropical Storm Jose to the east of the Carolinas.

pad199207

Maria looks like she is getting her game on again intensifying back to Cat 3.

Large clear eye has formed again. Not the pinhole eye though when she was on steroids

Drumpot

Seems like clickbait hyperbole, but any truth to the story that it might come our way ?

http://www.msn.com/en-ie/weather/topstories/dublin-weather-hurricanes-maria-and-jose-head-towards-ireland-to-unleash-devastating-storms/ar-AAsi3GY?li=AAmb2oK&ocid=ientp

ronnie3585

Drumpot wrote: »

Seems like clickbait hyperbole, but any truth to the story that it might come our way ?

http://www.msn.com/en-ie/weather/topstories/dublin-weather-hurricanes-maria-and-jose-head-towards-ireland-to-unleash-devastating-storms/ar-AAsi3GY?li=AAmb2oK&ocid=ientp

I didn't bother clicking on the link as I assume it's the usual sh*te spouted by the media - KILLER HURRICANE TO ATTACK IRELAND!!! etc etc etc. It may come our way however if it does it will be very much the remnants of the hurricane, not an actual hurricane. Many ex-hurricanes pass over us or by us with most of them being just a depression producing little more than a bad day while some have been named storms.

It's far too early to say what track it will take. Maria is still just north of the Dominican Republic and the NHC only have it west of Bermuda next Tuesday. There are so many variables at play that it will be the middle of next week before it can be said with any kind of confidence where the dregs of Maria will end up. For the time being, you don't need to nail the windows shut:D

Donegal Storm

GFS today actually has Maria making a direct hit on us eventually, its quite a large flabby LP by that stage so winds wouldn't be anything too major but we'd likely see some catastrophic nationwide flooding with three days of persistent torrential rain. Safe to say this won't be happening though!

Gaoth Laidir

I wouldn't call it catastrophic flooding. That word is being used by the NHC to describe the flooding in Puerto Rico, which is up to 35 inches (~900 mm) in 24-36 hours. THAT is catastrophic.

Donegal Storm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I wouldn't call it catastrophic flooding. That word is being used by the NHC to describe the flooding in Puerto Rico, which is up to 35 inches (~900 mm) in 24-36 hours. THAT is catastrophic.

Over 100mm countrywide would be about as bad as it gets by our fairly benign standards, likely every major river in the country would burst its banks

But yeah obviously nothing compared to what they've been seeing in the Caribbean this month. I can't even fathom rain that heavy, I've seen big monsoon downpours in Asia but they rarely last more than an hour or two and the ground dries up within a few hours, it must be like a relentless monsoon for the entire day

Meteorite58

Some amount of rainfall and when you add the tidal surge already having inundated areas.

Source:NASA Hurricane

uck51js9zml2yt

What size is Maria in comparison to Irma?

pauldry

These systems will prob bring outbreaks of heavy rain to us. If before end of September some very high totals for the month for some stations.

Peurto Rico has got it bad. Just as well its only there and not a rich place like Miami says the media.

Meteorite58

Lexie Hissing Pensioner wrote: »

What size is Maria in comparison to Irma?

A good report from CNN comparing Maria's path to Irma's.

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/20/americas/hurricanes-irma-maria-paths-trnd/index.html

and here http://time.com/4947710/hurricane-maria-how-big-size/

Meteorite58

Summary of advisory from the NHC : The eye has become cloud filled yet still maintains a speed of 110 kt. Will be moving over 18 -29 degree water so only gradual reduction in wind speed over the next 2 days. After that Maria expected to travel over a cool pool of 26 degree or colder left behind by Jose so additional weakening is anticipated.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Flash flooding continues in portions of Puerto Rico and the
Dominican Republic due to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's
trailing rainbands. Continue to follow advice from local
officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions.

2. Swells from Maria are beginning to reach the coast of the
southeastern United States and will last for several days. These
swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip
currents along the coast for the next several days, even with Maria
forecast to remain well offshore over the western Atlantic Ocean.

3. Maria will be closer to the east coast of the United States and
Bermuda by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to determine
what, if any, direct impacts there might be in these areas.

Meteorite58

Report from Accu Weather of a flash flood emergency from a dam failure in Puerto Rico. Busses evacuating people .

https://twitter.com/NoJusticia/status/911306978391216131

Meteorite58

fraxinus1

The word going around is that Maria will hit Ireland hard on 30th September.

Meteorite58

fraxinus1 wrote: »

The word going around is that Maria will hit Ireland hard on 30th September.

Only speculation at this stage, some earlier runs suggesting it might come near Ireland but as an extra tropical storm at best but looking less likely at this stage. The models are chopping and changing with regard to its track and strength and will take plenty more runs to have an idea for sure what sort of remnants are left over from Maria and where they might end up ( could easily be Greenland ! ). Some posts in the FI thread re same .


http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057782713

Meteorite58

The last few runs showing Maria getting very close if not impacting the East coast of the US.