Major Hurricane Maria

Gaoth Laidir

Latest recon flights showing nothing higher than 89 knot surface winds, pressure around 959 hPa.

Gaoth Laidir

One of the EPS members has an interesting curve up through the Irish Sea...

Meteorite58

The ECM shows Maria looking like having more of a chance of getting close to North Carolina . The NHC noting that 'If the
current model trends continue, additional westward adjustments to the track forecast will be necessary later today.'


https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/911565963312672768



NHC :' Various analyses show that Maria is
experiencing about 15 kt of southwesterly shear, which is likely the
reason for an asymmetric distribution of convection in the eyewall
at this time.'

Meteorite58

The models seem to be in agreement after Maria heads towards NC it re curves off on a NW'ly track. Where and in what shape will it end up in then ?

Gaoth Laidir

Some great satellite animations of Maria...

Meteorite58

NHC




KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the coast by midweek. Interests along the
coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the
progress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
needed for part of this area later today.

2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the
southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid-
Atlantic coast today. These swells will likely cause dangerous
surf and rip currents at beaches in these areas through much of
the week. For more information, please monitor information from
your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 28.7N 72.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 29.7N 73.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 30.8N 73.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 31.9N 73.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 32.9N 73.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 34.4N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 35.5N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 36.5N 68.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

Gaoth Laidir

Maria has just been downgraded to tropical storm.

There has been little change to Maria's cloud pattern since the previous advisory. The center of the large circulation is located near the northwestern edge of the deep convection due to west-northwesterly shear and dry air intrusion. Reconnaissance aircraft have not found any SFMR winds higher than 60 kt for quite some time, so the initial intensity has been reduced to that value. Cool waters and moderate shear should cause some additional decrease in wind speed over the next day or so, but little change in strength is forecast later in the period as Maria accelerates east-northeastward over the north Atlantic. Maria should complete extratropical transition in about 96 hours, and could merge with a large extratropical low in about 5 days.

ronnie3585

Apologies for dredging up this old thread, but I came across this fascinating footage of Maria making landfall, making 180 degree changes in wind direction in a matter of seconds.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAS6JC41Fwg

Donegal Storm

Really bizarre, I've seen footage like that from tornados but not in a hurricane and not switching repeatedly or so suddenly. I can only guess it's some sort of vortex on the edge of the eyewall but a total guess