Werewolf XVII - The Walking Dead

Triceratops Ballet

Lord TSC wrote: »

Can I ask something to add onto this theory.

Say an Elder DOES have the ability to communicate. How would that player also have the ability to say anyone is 100% or 90% a wolf? Are we saying she gets multiple peaks as well in this scenario (meaning the village has two seers)?

right here's a possible scenario-
The mods decided they needed to balance the game for some reason and so they allowed the seer, to send a message to a player of their choice.

Uriel was selected and got a message, that said you were evil and molly was likely evil. He wasn't allowed to quote directly, so made up the 100% and 90-% thing.

other possibility-
he made the whole thing up!

With digi dead we have no way to verify, and we can't necessarily believe his apprentice either.

So we lynch you, Uriel and Molly in whatever order, and hope it's enough. We have no other info, we have no way to know if we're right. Mystery things are happening behind the scenes and we can't be sure our seers/priests haven't been turned, we actually have to grind this one out as if we had no power roles. It's not a great position but it's where we are.

Uriel.

patrickSTARR wrote: »

It doesnt add up, why is Molly 90 percent and Lord is 100?

If an elder gave him a message or a once off comm, then Uriel would have said it by now, its not revealing a PM from a mod. It wouldnt be against teh rules for him to say he talked with an elder.

:mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad:





I am sorry I actually just can't handle this guy anymore.

Baggly

Uriel. wrote:

Secondly, overall, of course I would much prefer to live. With the information that I have in relation to what I received and in relation to my own role, my view is this: Lynch Lord = minus 1 wolf, a possiblity of confirming my NRV status while keeping me in the game for village numbers.

It doesn't confirm you as nrv in any way though. There are two other teams you could be part of.

And assuming there is a message it could have been sent blind, and thus sent to a baddie. Killing you verifies the message, and gives us the most info.

Baggly

I'm not engaging in thus again. And despite you saying you don't want to go over thus again and again that's what we you are doing.

I put to the village we lynch Uri first. I can't see any downside to doing so now that barney cleared up my alpha 2 lives mistake.

If Uri is good, we can trust the message more and go from there

Uriel.

Lord TSC wrote: »

Actually, in this scenario, the village would have had three; seer, apprentice seer, and the special powered one who can also send a message to someone. Thats a whole lot of seer powers for the village to have.

Why deflect as "you're trying to create confusion". I'm trying to work out HOW someone could have passed you info, where that info came from and how, to be blunt, I can mount an argument against it. I'm trying to defend myself, and you're trying to portray it as creating confusion? Thats not really fair on me, now, is it?

"Where did your source get their info" is a perfectly valid line of questioning to take here.

I already explained the source fully.
I have nothing further to say on that - literally, there's nothing I can add.

It doesn't mean there are three seers. As i said I don't even know if the seer passed me the information.

maybe the seer has a once off comms power. I don't know. Maybe the 3 other special village team sharing the backroom have information and maybe one of them has the power to pass the message. I genuinely don't know. I can't answer those questions.

Just to put thinks into perspective.

Dead Good Roles
Trit - Abraham - BG
Yoss - Eugene - App Seer
LoughC - Michonne - Walker Hunter
Kolido - Rick - Team Rick
Digi - Gabriel - Priest

Dead NRVs
Drumpot
Guffy
Crosstownk
BJ

Dead Bad
Tigger - Andrea - Team Gov
Mahama - Merie - Team Gov
MicksJ - Walker - Original

17 Alive Players
S Keith
Mrsflushdraw
Pter
Tri ballet
Ecto
Grumpy (Amanda)
Barney
Jayo
Stu
Lord tsc
Uriel
Molly
Destroyer
Party jungle
Valeyard
Strawbs
Duffman

4 Good Roles
Gabriel's Recruit - App Priest
Hershel Green - Seer
Daryl - Team Rick
Glenn - Team Rick

5 Bad Roles
Walker Recruit
The Govenor
Negan - Team Neg
Gavin - Team Neg
Dwight - Team Neg

Triceratops Ballet

Pter wrote: »

I'm not engaging in thus again. And despite you saying you don't want to go over thus again and again that's what we you are doing.

I put to the village we lynch Uri first. I can't see any downside to doing so now that barney cleared up my alpha 2 lives mistake.

If Uri is good, we can trust the message more and go from there

I don't mind which of them we lynch tonight

how can we know if the lynchee is good or bad?

patrickSTARR

Triceratops Ballet wrote: »

right here's a possible scenario-
The mods decided they needed to balance the game for some reason and so they allowed the seer, to send a message to a player of their choice.

Uriel was selected and got a message, that said you were evil and molly was likely evil. He wasn't allowed to quote directly, so made up the 100% and 90-% thing.

Ok, I can see he wont copy a PM, but he could just say he got word from the seer if so, he didnt. The 90 percent thing on Molly is sticking out for me. I think its a paniced bad guy.

He wont even reveal his source. He can surely say if it was the powers that be, an elder or a seer.

other possibility-
he made the whole thing up!

Most likely scenario at this stage.

Out of your two scenarios, which is most likley in your opinion? Look back at his posts since he revealed Lord was bad,

Uriel.

Pter wrote: »

It doesn't confirm you as nrv in any way though. There are two other teams you could be part of.

And assuming there is a message it could have been sent blind, and thus sent to a baddie. Killing you verifies the message, and gives us the most info.

Why are you trying to obfuscate things. I never said it would confirm me as NRV. I said there's a possibility tomorrow or at some other point that it will confirm me (e.g. priest or maybe seer reveal). If I am dead there will be some confirmation too of course, but by that point the village is down a player and allowed a wolf live.


I already explained why there's an upside to lynching Lord first. Village must decide that.

Mollyb60

Triceratops Ballet wrote: »

right here's a possible scenario-
The mods decided they needed to balance the game for some reason and so they allowed the seer, to send a message to a player of their choice.

Uriel was selected and got a message, that said you were evil and molly was likely evil. He wasn't allowed to quote directly, so made up the 100% and 90-% thing.

other possibility-
he made the whole thing up!

With digi dead we have no way to verify, and we can't necessarily believe his apprentice either.

So we lynch you, Uriel and Molly in whatever order, and hope it's enough. We have no other info, we have no way to know if we're right. Mystery things are happening behind the scenes and we can't be sure our seers/priests haven't been turned, we actually have to grind this one out as if we had no power roles. It's not a great position but it's where we are.

Aww man, yeah it's just occurred to me that if Uriel is right about Lord then I'm next on the chopping block. That is poopy. But unfortunately it looks like it has to happen. I think there are more likely wolfs in the village (like P* and maybe Amanda/Grumpy) than me but I've no way of proving to people that I'm just an NRV.

patrickSTARR

Pter wrote: »

I'm not engaging in thus again. And despite you saying you don't want to go over thus again and again that's what we you are doing.

I put to the village we lynch Uri first. I can't see any downside to doing so now that barney cleared up my alpha 2 lives mistake.

If Uri is good, we can trust the message more and go from there

How will we get confirmation of Uri being good though.

Uriel.

Pter wrote: »

I'm not engaging in thus again. And despite you saying you don't want to go over thus again and again that's what we you are doing.

I put to the village we lynch Uri first. I can't see any downside to doing so now that barney cleared up my alpha 2 lives mistake.

If Uri is good, we can trust the message more and go from there

That makes zero sense Pter - firstly you say the big advantage of killing me is that we avoid a scenario of me tying up three lynches. Your mistake was pointed out and you admit it was a "mistake" and now you're using the mistake of confirmation that your approach is the best for the village? Seriously? do you not see how stupid that is.

Mollyb60

Hmm just thinking. On day 1 I thought that one of either Pter or Drumpot were bad. But not both. With Digi's revelation that Drumpot was an NRV, I'll be looking back into Pter.

Ectoplasm

Ok I've been working on a state of play.

TIMELINE OF KILLS

Player Role Action
18. Tigger Andrea (Team Governor) Munched Sunday am by The Saviours
30. Drumpot NRV Lynched Sunday PM
9. Guffy NRV Munched Monday am by The Saviours
15. tritium Abraham Ford - Bodyguard Munched Monday am by Team Governor
8. y0ssar1an22 Eugene Porter (Apprentice Seer) Lynched Monday PM
22. Loughc Michonne (Walker Hunter) Munched Tuesday am by Team Governor
24. crosstownk NRV Munched Tuesday am by The Saviours
23. mahamageehad Merie Dixen (Team Governor) Lynched Tueday pm
21. Kolido  Rick Grimes Extra Kill Wednesday am by The Saviours
6. MicksJaguar Walker (Either was converted or converted another Monday Night) Munched Wednesday am by Team Governor
7. Beakerjoe NRV Munched Wednesday am by The Saviours
16. Digital Solitude Gabriel Stokes - Priest Extra Kill Wednesday am by Team Governor

LEFT ALIVE

1 Skeith
2 Mrsflushdraw
3 Pter
4 Triceratops Ballet
5 Ectoplasm
6 Grumpy
7 Barney92
8 jayo26
9 Stu Redman
10 Lord TSC
11 Uriel
12 Molly
13 Destroyer
14 partyjungle
15 The_Valeyard
16 Strawberry Milkshake
17 patrickSTARR
18 duffman13

ROLES REMAINING

The Good Guys
Daryl Dixon (Team Rick)
Glenn Rhee (Team Rick)
Hershel Greene - Seer
Apprentice Priest

The Bad Guys
The Governor (Team governor). Can resist seer checks and immune to one conversion attempt
Negan (Team Negan). Can resist seer checks and immune to one conversion attempt
Gavin (Team Negan)
Dwight (Team Negan)
Walker. May or may not be original. If original immune to seer checks

18 Players Left: 9 Roled, 4 Good/5 Bad
9 NRVs possibly including other "special roles". ***No guarantee these special roles are good***

I missed out Patrick star apologies

Baggly

Uriel. wrote:

That makes zero sense Pter - firstly you say the big advantage of killing me is that we avoid a scenario of me tying up three lynches. Your mistake was pointed out and you admit it was a "mistake" and now you're using the mistake of confirmation that your approach is the best for the village? Seriously? do you not see how stupid that is.

Well yea it does make sense. When I thought you were an alpha having to kill you twice would have been confirmation. Now that u realise that's not the case we get confirmation via the app priest immediately on your death.

MrsFlushdraw

Just reading the OP, where does it say that each alpha needs two shots? It says they are immune for 1st walker conversions. So they can die by lynch I am pretty sure.

Uriel.

MrsFlushdraw wrote: »

Just reading the OP, where does it say that each alpha needs two shots? It says they are immune for 1st walker conversions. So they can die by lynch I am pretty sure.

it doesn't say it.
He either made a mistake or knows something the rest of us don't
Now he's on a mission to obfuscate when he was called out on it.

sKeith

Pter wrote: »

THE BELOW IS SPECULATION BUT DOES SEEM TO COVER 2 OF THE MOST LIKELY EXPLANATIONS FOR URI’S REVEAL (UNLESS HE IS TELLING THE TRUTH).

Uri is an alpha. Lord is a villager. Gets us to lynch lord, we then have to spend 2 lynches killing Uri. If he is on the team with 3 players, that gives them a much better chance to wittling down the villagers and lasting to the end. The same is true if uri is a villager and lord is the alpha.

Today (now): 4 on team a (2 alpha lives + 2 teammates) v 2 team b (these being the 2 alpha lives) v 1 walker v 13
Tomorrow (lynch alpha, walker convert, 2 wolf kills on villagers):3 team a v 2 team b (2 alpha lives) v 2 walkers v10
Day after(lynch alpha, 2 wolf kills on villagers): 2 team a v 2 alpha lives team b v 2 walkers v 8 villagers
Day after(alpha dead, mislynch villager, walker convert): 2 v 2 v 3 v 4
Game over for the village anyway.
Uri and Lord names above can be swapped around above.
In this scenario we have to hope the wolves start killing each other.

The other scenario:

Uri is the remaining walker. Who would you pick to join your team? A noob or an experienced player who could take over once you die? Who would mick choose. I put to you that Uri is a candidate for this. So he and mick conspire to both do reveals, tie up the thread in speculation for 2 days and get to the next convert day at all costs. Getting to that next day is the only thing that counts for them. They cant win otherwise. And with the wolves munches seemingly coordinated (since they haven’t crossed over or killed each other to date according to digis reveals), I don’t believe Uri and Mick could afford to lie low and not make a big move (or two as I propose may have happened).

In such an instance how does Uris message work out?

Uri pushes hard to get lord killed. Leaves doubts about others as well (molly, who im not clearing and still think is a wolf). Lord gets killed and does or doesn’t turn out to be a wolf. We move on to lynching or munching Uri, but at this stage, there is a new convert. Probably someone with enough cred in the village and the debate skills to keep themselves from suspicion.

Better still, Lord turns out to be the wolf which is confirmed by the app priest and suddenly Uri, the walker, is home and dry; seemingly shown to be good, and the above probability for walker numbers look better and better.
Possible arguments against this: its risky, there is no doubt. But Uri was up for lynch last night. If he doesn’t make this play, he has to hope he loses the lynch vote. He has to make the above play today, when he is under much more scrutiny and such a play would look like desperation.

I propose the 2nd scenario i have presented here is more likely.



Gang, Uri has been throughout this game suspect. Today has been no exception. He has been stalling and bringing up game of thrones references and all this ****e to deflect attention and refer us back to his original secret message post, because he didn’t expect to be alive today, but he also didn’t expect Mick to be dead. Maybe he is telling the truth, maybe not. If he is happy to be lynched in the knowledge that we will also lynch Lord, then lets just do that. In the meantime we can move on to deciding our plan for the seer/app priest and lynches beyond Uri and/or Lord. We have lost a night and a morning to this nonsense, lets not waste more time.

Going forward, im looking at you P*. You were under suspicion before and kept your head down yesterday, only to resurge this morning (after I called out wolves for not putting the effort in). Going after Uri doesn’t clear you, as there are still 3 evil teams in play, 1 of which, I assume, isn’t aligned with the other 2 wolf teams.

Also going forward, Im convinced Molly is a wolf. Ive explained the reasons before – difference in posting style, popping up when she is mentioned, sitting back after an angry retort to any questioning. These are all hallmarks of wolf behaviour.

Also also, where the flip is Sk gone?

Finally, I think there is a quiet wolf or a wolf playing innocent out there. I cant pin this down but I think its between Barney, Jayoclone, Duffman, grumpy, Stu, destroyer.

I would also like to know why people went after destroyer in the vote last night. If you stand by this conviction, then why? Shouldn’t you be pushing for this again.

TL:DR, lynch Uri, lynch Lord unless app priest comes out and says Uri was the walker.

>Also also, where the flip is Sk gone?
What do you need me for? I'm busy patroling. do you need me to hold your hand? i'll get on when i can.

>(since they haven’t crossed over or killed each other to date according to digis reveals)
incorrect. look again.


>game of thrones references.
use quotes so we can see what you are talking about.

>I would also like to know why people went after destroyer in the vote last night. If you stand by this conviction, then why? Shouldn’t you be pushing for this again.

Who voted for destroyer yesterday? I don't think anybody did, where are you getting your incorrect info?

Uriel.

Uriel. wrote: »

He either made a mistake or knows something the rest of us don't

or third option, he tried to deliberately provide misdirection to get me lynched.

Ectoplasm

Pter wrote: »

THE BELOW IS SPECULATION BUT DOES SEEM TO COVER 2 OF THE MOST LIKELY EXPLANATIONS FOR URI’S REVEAL (UNLESS HE IS TELLING THE TRUTH).

Uri is an alpha. Lord is a villager. Gets us to lynch lord, we then have to spend 2 lynches killing Uri. If he is on the team with 3 players, that gives them a much better chance to wittling down the villagers and lasting to the end. The same is true if uri is a villager and lord is the alpha.

Today (now): 4 on team a (2 alpha lives + 2 teammates) v 2 team b (these being the 2 alpha lives) v 1 walker v 13
Tomorrow (lynch alpha, walker convert, 2 wolf kills on villagers):3 team a v 2 team b (2 alpha lives) v 2 walkers v10
Day after(lynch alpha, 2 wolf kills on villagers): 2 team a v 2 alpha lives team b v 2 walkers v 8 villagers
Day after(alpha dead, mislynch villager, walker convert): 2 v 2 v 3 v 4
Game over for the village anyway.
Uri and Lord names above can be swapped around above.
In this scenario we have to hope the wolves start killing each other.

All nonsense because the alpha is only immune to Walker conversions not lynches according to the OP

Pter wrote: »

The other scenario:

Uri is the remaining walker. Who would you pick to join your team? A noob or an experienced player who could take over once you die? Who would mick choose. I put to you that Uri is a candidate for this. So he and mick conspire to both do reveals, tie up the thread in speculation for 2 days and get to the next convert day at all costs. Getting to that next day is the only thing that counts for them. They cant win otherwise. And with the wolves munches seemingly coordinated (since they haven’t crossed over or killed each other to date according to digis reveals), I don’t believe Uri and Mick could afford to lie low and not make a big move (or two as I propose may have happened).

Also nonsense as Team Negan killed Tigger on Day 1.

Pter wrote: »

Uri pushes hard to get lord killed. Leaves doubts about others as well (molly, who im not clearing and still think is a wolf). Lord gets killed and does or doesn’t turn out to be a wolf. We move on to lynching or munching Uri, but at this stage, there is a new convert. Probably someone with enough cred in the village and the debate skills to keep themselves from suspicion.

Better still, Lord turns out to be the wolf which is confirmed by the app priest and suddenly Uri, the walker, is home and dry; seemingly shown to be good, and the above probability for walker numbers look better and better.
Possible arguments against this: its risky, there is no doubt. But Uri was up for lynch last night. If he doesn’t make this play, he has to hope he loses the lynch vote. He has to make the above play today, when he is under much more scrutiny and such a play would look like desperation.

I propose the 2nd scenario i have presented here is more likely.



Gang, Uri has been throughout this game suspect. Today has been no exception. He has been stalling and bringing up game of thrones references and all this ****e to deflect attention and refer us back to his original secret message post, because he didn’t expect to be alive today, but he also didn’t expect Mick to be dead. Maybe he is telling the truth, maybe not. If he is happy to be lynched in the knowledge that we will also lynch Lord, then lets just do that. In the meantime we can move on to deciding our plan for the seer/app priest and lynches beyond Uri and/or Lord. We have lost a night and a morning to this nonsense, lets not waste more time.



TL:DR, lynch Uri, lynch Lord unless app priest comes out and says Uri was the walker.

This post has made me suspect you Pter. You're pushing hard to get Uriel lynched first but your reasons for it are shaky as I've shown above. The alphas don't need double lynching. The wolves have targeted each other. The walker might target an alpha for conversion, hence no conversion, although granted there's a small enough chance of that but more importantly, I don't think ANYONE will accept that Lord being a wolf means that Uriel is good.

patrickSTARR

Triceratops Ballet wrote: »

I don't mind which of them we lynch tonight

how can we know if the lynchee is good or bad?

Well if I was the App priest, which we should still have, Its a risk coming out tomorrow morning. We will only get 2 new confirmeds (the lynchee tonight and Digi) but hes may be munched afterwards.

There is also the possibility that the app seer could be turned later. Which is bad news bears for the village.

Baggly

Uriel. wrote:

it doesn't say it. He either made a mistake or knows something the rest of us don't Now he's on a mission to obfuscate when he was called out on it.

Haha I'm not obfuscation anything. I admitted reading that bit wrong but the rest holds up. Actually my theory about you being a walker gets better now there are no double taps needed.

Nick absolutely would have picked you as for day 1 and 2 you were vocal and under suspicion but we're reasonably holding your own. There were bigger targets to take out like cross. And in addition to that, there was so much fluff from day 0 and 1 from you that you can reasonably explain a change in posting style.

I appreciate, if the message is real, that you have been put in a bad place, but stop saying you don't mind dying and then suggesting the best time to do it.

I'm proposing, again, that we kill Uri. And I'm not hearing reasons from anyone but Uri on why not to do that.

And I'm amazed Molly isn't joining me, and has in fact turned the finger on me! Molly was sure Uri was bad the last couple of days. That's a major turnaround that is getting lost in this Uri spamming.

Triceratops Ballet

patrickSTARR wrote: »

Well if I was the App priest, which we should still have, Its a risk coming out tomorrow morning. We will only get 2 new confirmeds (the lynchee tonight and Digi) but hes may be munched afterwards.

There is also the possibility that the app seer could be turned later. Which is bad news bears for the village.

There's a possibility that the app priest is already turned. We have a converted walker roaming round.

patrickSTARR

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

I missed out Patrick star apologies

Wut?

patrickSTARR

sKeith wrote: »

>Also also, where the flip is Sk gone?
What do you need me for? I'm busy patroling. do you need me to hold your hand? i'll get on when i can.

>(since they haven’t crossed over or killed each other to date according to digis reveals)
incorrect. look again.


>game of thrones references.
use quotes so we can see what you are talking about.

>I would also like to know why people went after destroyer in the vote last night. If you stand by this conviction, then why? Shouldn’t you be pushing for this again.

Who voted for destroyer yesterday? I don't think anybody did, where are you getting your incorrect info?

Id love you to get involved more today, you planning on sticking around skeith.

The_Valeyard

This is confusing.


You are all making good arguments.

I wont decide who im voting for until about an hour before lynch

patrickSTARR

Pter wrote: »

Haha I'm not obfuscation anything. I admitted reading that bit wrong but the rest holds up. Actually my theory about you being a walker gets better now there are no double taps needed.

Nick absolutely would have picked you as for day 1 and 2 you were vocal and under suspicion but we're reasonably holding your own. There were bigger targets to take out like cross. And in addition to that, there was so much fluff from day 0 and 1 from you that you can reasonably explain a change in posting style.

I appreciate, if the message is real, that you have been put in a bad place, but stop saying you don't mind dying and then suggesting the best time to do it.

I'm proposing, again, that we kill Uri. And I'm not hearing reasons from anyone but Uri on why not to do that.

And I'm amazed Molly isn't joining me, and has in fact turned the finger on me! Molly was sure Uri was bad the last couple of days. That's a major turnaround that is getting lost in this Uri spamming.

Whats bugging me about Uri now is this whole I cant take pStarr anymore business. Can you not see where Im coming from Uri?

Put yourself in my shoes, can you not see why its more likely I dont believe you?

Baggly

Ectoplasm wrote:

All nonsense because the alpha is only immune to Walker conversions not lynches according to the OP

Yep admitted that was a misreading on my part.

Ectoplasm wrote:

Also nonsense as Team Negan killed Tigger on Day 1.

My mistake again admittedly.

Ectoplasm wrote:

This post has made me suspect you Pter. You're pushing hard to get Uriel lynched first but your reasons for it are shaky as I've shown above. The alphas don't need double lynching. The wolves have targeted each other. The walker might target an alpha for conversion, hence no conversion, although granted there's a small enough chance of that but more importantly, I don't think ANYONE will accept that Lord being a wolf means that Uriel is good.

My main reason for wanting Uri lynched aren't the ones you have corrected though. It's that he is dominating the thread despite asking us to kill him. Repeatedly.

Suspect me. Fine. But can we please agree Uri or lord need to die. If you don't like my evidence for the alpha theory, then relook st my walker theory. Please I emplore you to. Because Uri is getting exactly what he wanted out of my post. A distraction. I made mistakes in my first theory but why is Uri pushing hard on lord dieing first.

patrickSTARR

The_Valeyard wrote: »

This is confusing.


You are all making good arguments.

I wont decide who im voting for until about an hour before lynch

Val, dont pop in and out, sit down, relax, have a chat. Dont go under the radar again wee lad.