Limerick in 2040

pigtown

http://npf.ie/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Ireland-2040-Our-Plan-Draft-NPF.pdf
The government has been preparing a follow-up to the ill-fated National Spatial Strategy, planning how Ireland will look in 2040. The draft report is out now and people are invited to send in any submissions they have on the plan by November. I have attempted to outline in some fairly long posts what the implications for Limerick city will be should the proposed plan get the green light.

Would anyone care to speculate what each bullet point might mean for the city? It’d be great if people could be as specific as possible, there are lots of areas of the city I only have passing knowledge of and it’d be great to get the perspective of more knowledgeable posters here.

‘Working together with the City’s third level institutions, Shannon Airport and bodies such as Shannon Development and the Shannon-Foynes Port Company, there is capacity to build on recent success and add to the ambitious vision for Limerick. This requires growing and diversifying the City’s employment base and attracting more people to live in the City, both within the City Centre and in new, accessible green-field development areas. This means improving housing choice, supported by facilities and infrastructure. Regional connectivity, especially to Cork and Waterford must also be addressed and average journey times per km need to be improved, in a manner that doesn’t undermine metropolitan area population and jobs growth.’


Key future growth enablers for Limerick include:

pigtown

Economy
• Implementation of the Limerick 2030 economic strategy to create modern, city centre office accommodation and a series of transformational city centre public realm projects.
o Gardens International building on Henry Street; due late 2018.
o Opera Site; current proposal projected to take 5-6 years to complete.
o Cleeves site; 8 acres with possible uses including education, tourism, residential, incubation / innovation space, commercial office.

• Enabling enhanced opportunities for existing communities as development and diversification occurs, particularly through employment, learning and education support.

• The continued expansion of the City’s third level institutions and integration with the wider City and region.

pigtown

Housing
‘Ireland 2040 targets a significant proportion of future urban development on infill/brownfield development sites within the built envelope of existing urban areas. This is applicable to all scales of settlement, from the largest city, to the smallest village.’


• Complementary further development of the Limerick 2030 plan to include measures to encourage significant inner urban residential regeneration and development (50% of the desired population growth, or 26,000 people), to include the City’s Georgian Quarter.
o 74 residential units have been approved for the former Ardhu hotel on the Ennis Road.
o 42 apartments approved as part of the Bishop’s Quay development.
o 2 city centre blocks, bounded by O’Connell St., Cecil St., Catherine St., and Mallow St., are earmarked by the city council for the Liveability Initiative and a budget of €18 million has been set to be spent by 2019. I don’t have any information on what this project might entail.

• Extending the ambition of the Limerick 2030 plan to include extension of the City Centre towards Limerick Docks.
o I imagine a large part of the city’s population growth will occur near the docks. I wonder what this will mean for the business the port currently does.

• Identifying infill and regeneration opportunities to intensify housing and employment development throughout inner suburban areas.
o This will more than likely mean facilitating the development of mews buildings and the construction of houses/apartments at the ends of large back gardens and on larger corner sites within housing estates.

• Progressing the sustainable development of new greenfield areas for housing and the development of supporting public transport and infrastructure, such as at Mungret.
o Another 26,000 people to be housed on greenfield sites. Greenpark and Mungret have potential for 3,400 units. It’s likely that the mooted northern distributer road will open up the northside for much of these new houses.
o The average household size is continually decreasing, with 7 out of 10 households currently 3 people or fewer. Demand for housing in the future is unlikely to be in the form of 3 and 4 bed semis. It will be interesting to see greenfield development that isn’t just semi-d estates.

pigtown

Transport & Infrastructure
• Provision of a Citywide public transport network, with enhanced accessibility from the City Centre to the National Technological Park, UL and Shannon Airport.
o Unlikely to be anything other than bus-based, hopefully BRT.
o A transport link between the city centre and UL is in the works. I don’t know the status of it but a budget of €5,300,000 has been set aside for it.
o A feasibility study into the provision of a rail line to Shannon airport, done during the boom, found that even with wildly optimistic passenger growth a case could not be made for the construction of one.

• Development of a strategic cycleway network with a number of high capacity flagship routes.
o Cycle routes to Mary I and LIT have both got budgets of €1,300,000 to be spent by next year.
o Long-term I think city-centre cycle lanes will have to be built, along with a new pedestrian/cycle bridge across the Shannon.

• Enhanced road connectivity to ShannonFoynes Port, including local by-passes.
o The N21 upgrade includes a bypass for Adare and a new link road to Foynes. This is a rare Irish example of not doubling up of relatively close parallel routes. The funding is coming from the Ten-T European structural fund.

• Enhanced regional connectivity through improved average journey times by road to Cork and Waterford.
o The long-awaited M20 seems to be gaining traction and should be in place by the end of this plan. There isn’t much serious talk of upgrading the road to Waterford however presumably bypasses of towns along the route will materialise.

• Ensuring that water supply and waste-water needs are met by new national projects to enhance Limerick’s water supply and increase waste water treatment capacity.

• Improving sustainability in terms of energy, waste and water, to include district heating and water conservation.

dashoonage

Not a single mention of the ****ing monorail!

zulutango

Thanks Pigtown. It'll be interesting to read this thread over the next 23 years!!

Is there a target for the population of the city in 2040? If we're talking about 600,000 people (obviously a very high growth scenario) then that'll mean a whole lot more changes in terms of infrastructure, regeneration, etc than if we're talking about a 150,000 pop. scenario. I'm not saying that one or the other is more realistic, but what does the Ireland 2040 plan envisage? Is there any oblique reference in the report to Limerick becoming Ireland's second city (as suggested by the former head of the Dept. of Finance). I haven't gone through it.

zulutango

"There will be a major new policy emphasis on renewing and developing existing built-up areas rather than continual expansion and sprawl of cities and towns out into the countryside, with a target of at least 40% of new housing to be delivered within the existing built-up areas of cities, towns and villages on infill and/or brownfield sites."

Doesn't that mean that up to 60% of new housing won't be in towns, villages and cities? The first half of the sentence seems to contradict the latter half.

pigtown

zulutango wrote: »

Thanks Pigtown. It'll be interesting to read this thread over the next 23 years!!

Is there a target for the population of the city in 2040? If we're talking about 600,000 people (obviously a very high growth scenario) then that'll mean a whole lot more changes in terms of infrastructure, regeneration, etc than if we're talking about a 150,000 pop. scenario. I'm not saying that one or the other is more realistic, but what does the Ireland 2040 plan envisage? Is there any oblique reference in the report to Limerick becoming Ireland's second city (as suggested by the former head of the Dept. of Finance). I haven't gone through it.

Total population increase of ~1 million people nationally. Approximately 50% of this will be in the 5 existing cities split between Dublin (25%, 264,000) and Cork/Galway/Limerick/Waterford (combined 1/4 of a million).

Broken down this means
Cork +115,000, new population of 324,000.
Galway +44,000, new population of 124,000.
Limerick +52,000, new population of 146,000.
Waterford +29,000, new population of 82,000.

As you can see Cork is projected to be almost the same size as the other 3 cities combined so there is no prospect of it being anything other than the second city. The plan is to solidify this by ensuring that the journey from Cork to the other major cities is no linger than the journey from these cities to Dublin. This will mean shaving 30 minutes off the time between Galway and Cork.

zulutango wrote: »

"There will be a major new policy emphasis on renewing and developing existing built-up areas rather than continual expansion and sprawl of cities and towns out into the countryside, with a target of at least 40% of new housing to be delivered within the existing built-up areas of cities, towns and villages on infill and/or brownfield sites."

Doesn't that mean that up to 60% of new housing won't be in towns, villages and cities? The first half of the sentence seems to contradict the latter half.

It means that 40% of the national total new housing units will be on land that is already in towns/cities, such as Vizes Court or Bishop's Quay. The rest will be throughout the country but will include new greenfield sites in towns/cities too, such as Mungret or Castletroy.

mdmix

just posting a link to the mid west strategic plan 2012-2030 as a reference. this projected population growth of 10,250 people in limerick city and suburbs by 2015, growth was actually around 2000. limerick city is the recorded the slowest growth of any Irish city and the Mid west the slowest of the regions. at the current rate of growth, the population of the city/suburbs will be 104,000 by 2040.

http://www.mwasp.ie

the NPR and the mid west strategic plan and the limerick 2030 plan all sound nice, impressive really, but our local politicians are not capable of following any of these plans, they seem to want to do the opposite. limerick has a lot going for it but local politics is holding it back. Mungret is a fine place, but in my mind the suburbs end at raheen/dooradoyle. there isn't even a bus service to mungret. I don't mean to be negative, but something radical has to change if Limerick is to see any meaningful growth.

mdmix

also, see mid west 2040 plan which was submitted to the NPF. the document says limerick could add 50k people in the short term and can grow to 300k by 2040. again its nice to hear but no real specifics. one of the main challenges highlighted but this document is that the region loses 60% of graduates once they are qualified. not quite sure a 3 bed semi in Mungret will sway any graduates to stay..

https://www.limerick.ie/sites/default/files/media/documents/2017-03/Ireland%202040.PDF

kilburn

Would recommend people read Stephen Kinsellas book Ireland in 2050 some great ideas in it.

dave 27

If limerick is to grow like it's predicted we need to see large scale radical development of cherrywood and adamstown proportions, of course having jobs there for the people will come hand in hand so we need to see a consistant flow of jobs being created to see it as a prosperous place to stay or move to

pigtown

mdmix wrote: »

also, see mid west 2040 plan which was submitted to the NPF. the document says limerick could add 50k people in the short term and can grow to 300k by 2040. again its nice to hear but no real specifics. one of the main challenges highlighted but this document is that the region loses 60% of graduates once they are qualified. not quite sure a 3 bed semi in Mungret will sway any graduates to stay..

https://www.limerick.ie/sites/default/files/media/documents/2017-03/Ireland%202040.PDF

That's a very interesting document mdmix. It's very aspirational but interesting to see the council's ambitions. They state that as it stands there's enough land zoned for a 50,000 increase in population for the city. It's likely that the vast majority of this is greenfield so to satisfy the requirement of brownfield and infill development some rezoning might be needed. The figure of 300,000 in the metro area is laughable. That's 20% of predicted national population growth and a 200% increase of what's there now.

dave 27 wrote: »

If limerick is to grow like it's predicted we need to see large scale radical development of cherrywood and adamstown proportions, of course having jobs there for the people will come hand in hand so we need to see a consistant flow of jobs being created to see it as a prosperous place to stay or move to

I'd much prefer if the expected population growth occurred through the densification of existing residential areas but if a new town/suburb is needed then it would have to be along a rail line or bus route. The document linked by mdmix states that the councils want to strengthen the Nenagh and Ennis rail corridors so it would make sense that any new development would be centered around a new train station on one of these lines.

Any suggestions as to where?

zulutango

Just reading through the plan here. In its general language and tone it is saying some of the right things, but when it comes to specifics I think it's fairly unambitious, and actually quite representative of the conservatism in governance in this country. The Limerick section looks like something that was cobbled together by Limerick City & County Council in twenty minutes before the deadline. People's definition of what planning is will differ, but Ireland 2040 seems to fall under the most modest definition of the word. It's more like "tipping along forecasting". Planning implies making significant changes through policy shifts, such as the kind of decisions that the founders of the State made, i.e. building Ardnacrusha power station even though it cost a fifth of the total national budget and everybody was against it. Other examples locally would be the decisions to build the university or Shannon Airport. Both had major local and national implications. There doesn't appear to be anything of such vision in this plan. Still reading through it though ...

dave 27

Theres a train line entering limerick from the south (direction of limerick junction) which terminates at colbert. Nothing stopping having one built just on that line on the outskirts of the ring road motorway.

pigtown

zulutango wrote: »

Just reading through the plan here. In its general language and tone it is saying some of the right things, but when it comes to specifics I think it's fairly unambitious, and actually quite representative of the conservatism in governance in this country. The Limerick section looks like something that was cobbled together by Limerick City & County Council in twenty minutes before the deadline. People's definition of what planning is will differ, but Ireland 2040 seems to fall under the most modest definition of the word. It's more like "tipping along forecasting". Planning implies making significant changes through policy shifts, such as the kind of decisions that the founders of the State made, i.e. building Ardnacrusha power station even though it cost a fifth of the total national budget and everybody was against it. Other examples locally would be the decisions to build the university or Shannon Airport. Both had major local and national implications. There doesn't appear to be anything of such vision in this plan. Still reading through it though ...

Good planning is quite close to, as you say, 'tipping along forecasting'. The vast majority of development and growth is small and incremental and ensuring this is directed to the most appropriate areas is the bread and butter of any plan.

Big transformational projects aren't as common and it could be argued that as the population is going to grow by 1 million anyway then such projects aren't really required.

Do you have any suggestions about a big project for the region?

Personally I think a revolutionary look at public transport throughout the country would do wonders. Perhaps establish a framework for local bus networks that would serve local schools, daycare centres, and regular routes to neighbouring large towns. A plan for BRT routes in the cities outside of Dublin could really kickstart the move to city centres from the suburbs that many in the planning profession, and those who wrote this plan, see as the way forward.

dave 27 wrote: »

Theres a train line entering limerick from the south (direction of limerick junction) which terminates at colbert. Nothing stopping having one built just on that line on the outskirts of the ring road motorway.

Yeah that's true but I'd say that the lines to Nenagh or Ennis are more likely as they already have regular running services. The document linked by mdmix sees a new line to the airport, which has land reserved for it, with stops at Sixmilebridge, Moyross, Kings Island (Corbally?), the University (Rhebogue?) and the Parkway.

zulutango

There's a very interesting story in the Limerick Leader today. Conn Murray and Paschal O'Donoghue have clashed apparently, with the city manager saying the plan isn't nearly ambitious enough for Limerick. The story isn't online yet.

pigtown

I went through the two documents and high-lighted the locally relevant parts;

Planning
Metropolitan Area Plans will be provided with statutory underpinning to act as 12-year strategic planning and investment frameworks for the city metropolitan areas, addressing high-level and longterm strategic development issues. In the Limerick area, a metropolitan area based on similar labour market catchment considerations to the areas already identified for Dublin and Cork, to be determined by the Regional Assembly, in consultation with the Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government and the relevant local authorities, that shall include Shannon Airport and Town
Each Metropolitan Area Strategic Plan will set out a clear and concise strategy to:
Identify the key change parameters for the city in question, i.e. population, employment, housing, retail, travel patterns and key renewal, development and amenity areas;
Work out a sequence of infrastructure prioritisation, delivery and co-ordination; and
Deliver compact regeneration and growth

Mid-West
Counties Clare, Limerick and much of County Tipperary comprise the Mid Western regional area, focused on Limerick City and the River Shannon estuary, also extending into the northern part of County Kerry. A Metropolitan Area Strategic Plan (MASP) will be prepared for the Limerick Metropolitan area, incorporating Shannon, through the Regional Spatial and Economic Strategy process.
Although focused on Limerick City and key employment and infrastructure assets at Shannon and Foynes, this regional area is supported by a strong rural economy and a varied network of towns and villages. Shannon Airport has an established role as a key travel and enterprise hub for the region, with potential for further growth.
Future growth will be based on leveraging national and international connectivity, higher education capacity and quality of life to secure
strategic investment. This must be underpinned by sustainable employment and housing development, focused on the broader LimerickShannon
Metropolitan area and a strengthening of the urban cores of the county towns and principal settlements, as well as in rural areas.

Specific Limerick City
Implementation of the Limerick 2030 economic strategy to create modern, city
centre office accommodation and a series of transformational city centre public realm projects;
Complementary further development of the Limerick 2030 plan to include measures to encourage significant inner urban residential regeneration and development, to include the City’s Georgian Quarter;
Extending the ambition of the Limerick 2030 plan to include extension of the City Centre towards Limerick Docks;
Identifying infill and regeneration opportunities to intensify housing and
employment development throughout inner suburban areas;
Enabling enhanced opportunities for existing communities as development and
diversification occurs, particularly through employment, learning and education support;
Progressing the sustainable development of new greenfield areas for housing and the development of supporting public transport and infrastructure, such as at Mungret;
The continued expansion of the City’s third level institutions and integration with the wider City and region;
Provision of a Citywide public transport network, with enhanced accessibility from the City Centre to the National Technological Park, UL and Shannon Airport;
Development of a strategic cycleway network with a number of high capacity flagship routes;
Enhanced road connectivity to ShannonFoynes Port, including local by-passes;
Enhanced regional connectivity through improved average journey times by road to Cork and Waterford;
Ensuring that water supply and waste-water needs are met by new national projects to enhance Limerick’s water supply and increase waste water treatment capacity;
Improving sustainability in terms of energy, waste management and resource efficiency and water, to include district heating and water conservation.

Limerick City and Suburbs: +50,000 - 55,000 people (at least 145,000 total)
50% new city housing on within Limerick City and Suburbs footprint

Investments
Sustainable Transport
BusConnects not detailed as of yet and not budgeted for in the same way as Cork and Galway versions.
National development of BusConnects, for example, Galway, Cork, Limerick and Waterford.

Delivery of comprehensive cycling and walking network for Ireland’s cities.

Feasibility Study of high speed (not defined) rail on the Dublin-Cork line, thereby benefiting the Limerick service on most of the route.

Roads
M21 Limerick-Adare/Foynes
N24 Limerick Junction-Waterford

M20 Cork to Limerick Road
Current Status: Due to commence planning
Estimated Cost: €850 to 900 million
Estimated Completion Date: 2027 subject to appraisal, planning and procurement
Cork and Limerick are Ireland’s second and third largest cities located in the southwest and mid-west respectively. The two cities are approximately 100km apart yet at present the economic interaction and inter-relationships between the cities is limited with poor transport connectivity being a factor.
An opportunity exists to provide better connectivity between the two cities by improving the qualityof the transport network which will address road safety issues associated with the existing N20 route and provide for safer and more efficient journey times.
The solution for the M20 corridor will be identified through the appraisal process by the development of a business case for the scheme. This process will examine the inclusion of the Cork North Ring Road linking the N20 to Dunkettle.
The Cork North Ring Road is a complementary scheme to the M20 and consideration of the North Ring Road could best be assessed as part of an overall transport strategy for the metropolitan Cork area which would include the examination of public transport and demand management options.



Other mentioned projects

Limerick Regeneration Programme
Current Status: In progress
Estimated Cost: €170 million
Estimated Completion Date: 2023
Continued investment in the Limerick Regeneration Programme will see the completion of the works identified in the 2013 Limerick Regeneration Framework Implementation Plan, with the delivery of some 400 new homes and the upgrading of 900 homes across the areas of Moyross, Southill,
Ballinacurra Weston and St Mary’s Park.
A programme of social and economic initiatives will also be advanced over the coming years. The scheme is scheduled to be completed by 2023.

Shannon Group
Current Status: Project commenced
Estimated Cost: €150 million
Estimated Completion Date: 2022
Shannon Group through its subsidiaries Shannon Airport Authority, Shannon Commercial Enterprises and Shannon Heritage have plans to invest in excess of €150 million in its capital programme over the period to 2022.
This includes €100 million for the development of the property portfolio which is designed to deliver high quality advanced manufacturing, warehousing and office space solutions. This programme will assist the IDA and EI in their drive for inward investment and increase employment in the region.
Also included in this capital programme, is the construction of a wide body paint hangar at Shannon Airport. This is in accordance with the National Aviation Policy to “encourage the development of the International Aviation Services Centre (IASC) at Shannon”. This will be the first new wide body hangar constructed at an Irish airport in over 20 years and is the kind of expansion that was envisaged in order to grow a globally recognised and internationally competitive aviation industry cluster in and around the airport campus. Cross agency co-operation will continue to develop further hangars at Shannon to meet industry demand.
Shannon Heritage is committed to creating compelling tourist attractions in the West of Ireland and the plan includes the €10 million redevelopment of Bunratty Castle in partnership with Fáilte Ireland.

Capacity Extension Works
Shannon Foynes Port Company
Status: Commenced
Cost: €27 million over next five years
Estimated Completion Date: 2022
Shannon Foynes Port Company’s Infrastructure Development Programme is well underway and will consist of a jetty expansion program, the joining ofthe East and West Jetties and the infill behind, land purchase and site development at Foynes in light of the land bank shortage at Foynes Port and the Foynes Rail Reinstatement. Phase 1 of part of this development has been completed and a planning application for part of Phase 2 will be lodged in 2018. The investment programme will improve international connectivity and increase capacity through the construction of new quay walls and associated port infrastructure and external connectivity with the upgrade of the N69 and the reinstatement of the Limerick-Foynes rail line.

Health
Limerick University Maternity Hospital at UHL

Limerick ward block (not detailed but there have been calls for a 96 bed block locally)

New Ambulance base

Justice
Redevelopment of Limerick Prison construction commencing in 2018 of a new modern wing in the prison and a dedicated standalone new female prison for the Munster region.

Training facilities in Sarsfield Barracks, Limerick

Other
Limerick city and environs flood relief works

University of Limerick: New student centre, sports facilities, new and refurbished student residences.

Emerald AeroCluster in Limerick/Shannon