2018 NFL Draft

Paully D

Date: April 26th-28th
Location: TBC, though Dallas seems to be favoured
TV: ESPN and NFL Network

A quarter of the way through the regular season, and with many teams already looking ahead to their selection in the 2018 NFL draft, it's time for a new thread.

As always, here's a few resources which may be of interest:

Matt Miller's Early 2018 Rankings
Sports Illustrated's 2018 Top 10 (updated weekly)
CBS Sports' 2018 Rankings
Mel Kiper's Top 25 (updated regularly, ESPN Insider subscription required)

The early expectation is that this will be a strong year for QB's, and while that is said every year and ultimately it won't seem as good as thought when the evaluations really start at the turn of the year, it does appear to be the strongest in years relatively speaking.

It should also be another good year for running backs after two went in the top 10 last year, with Penn State's Saquon Barkley the pick of the bunch.

KrustyUCC

Order as it stands

FIRST ROUND

1. Browns 0-4 (.438)

2. 49ers 0-4 (.625)

3. Giants 0-4 (.667)

4. Chargers 0-4 (.733)

T5. Colts 1-3 (.438)

T5. Bengals 1-3 (.438)

7. Bears 1-3 (.733)

8. Dolphins 1-2 (.333)

T9. Ravens 2-2 (.375)

T9. Cardinals 2-2 (.375)

T9. Seahawks 2-2 (.375)

12. Browns via trade with Texans 2-2 (.438)

T13. Cowboys 2-2 (.500)

T13. Jaguars 2-2 (.500)

T13. Titans 2-2 (.500)

T16. Saints 2-2 (.533)

T16. Jets 2-2 (.533)

18. Raiders 2-2 (.563)

19. Vikings 2-2 (.667)

20. Patriots 2-2 (.688)

21. Redskins 2-2 (.750)

22. Buccaneers 2-1 (.250)

T23. Steelers 3-1 (.313)

T23. Rams 3-1 (.313)

25. Eagles 3-1 (.375)

T26. Panthers 3-1 (.438)

T26. Packers 3-1 (.438)

T26. Lions 3-1 (.438)

T26. Broncos 3-1 (.438)

30. Falcons 3-1 (.625)

31. Bills 3-1 (.688)

32. Bills via trade with Chiefs 4-0 (.438)

Billy86

...it's October.

KrustyUCC

True but some teams seasons are over bar the shouting at this stage

You can count out the 1-3 and 0-4 teams from the playoffs

Sucks for the rest of the season to be meaningless in October

Billy86

No you can't, Christ if not for a last second drive we'd be counting out the Patriots from this years playoffs too then. At 1-3 the Colts are one game off top of their division while every 0-4 team bar the Chargers are just 3 games out with 12 whole games to play. Is it likely they make the playoffs? Not really, but teams always rally later in the year. Even an 0-4 team that doesn't make the playoffs could very easily be picking #15 or lower.

I don't know, to each their own but early speculation on draft order just makes less than zero sense to me.

mikemac2

Given up for the year and wanting to see the Ravens tank for some elite prospects Paully? :pac:

brinty

So De shon Elliot and Conor Williams have declared for the draft from Texas and are skipping their bowl game. Malik Jefferson and Holton Hill expected to follow suit...

Should be some more declarations in the next few from various programs i'm sure..

brinty

Anyone going to head over this year? I'm considering it.. but will be a post Christmas decision.

adrian522

After last weekend the draft order is Cleveland, NY Giants, SF, Indy, Chicago, Denver, NY Jets, Tampa, Arizona, Cleveland.

spud06

adrian522 wrote: »

After last weekend the draft order is Cleveland, NY Giants, SF, Indy, Chicago, Denver, NY Jets, Tampa, Arizona, Cleveland.

Dolphins have got to trade up in my opinion and try get a QB i.e Lemar Jackson or Mason Rudolph. Tannehill, Moore and Cutler are a total disaster and with Adam Gase history with QBs now is the time for change.

Knex*

If Luck can come back, Indy with a top 5 pick could actually be poised to put themselves in a position for make a playoff run. They're team hasn't looked that bad to me when I've watched them this year.

Interesting to see that division next year regardless, with Watson back and Jags and Titans already having solid teams.

HigginsJ

Woo a top 3 pick for the Giants & no Jerry Reese to ruin it. Please god I hope the team doesn't win the last few games.

Paully D

Good sit down with Kiper and McShay here. Lots of talk about the QB's but plenty of other stuff too:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/story/_/id/21665021/2018-nfl-draft-primer-mel-kiper-todd-mcshay-answer-25-questions-prospects-rankings-mock-draft

Paully D

:pac::pac::pac:

https://twitter.com/josh3rosen/status/938849330458378241

thomond2006

Cleveland (0-15) .517
New York Giants (2-13) .533
Indianapolis (3-12) .483
Cleveland - from Houston (4-11) .508
Tampa Bay (4-11) .558
Denver (5-10) .483
New York Jets (5-10) .521
San Francisco (5-10) .521
Chicago (5-10) .558
Cincinnati (6-9) .467

Oakland (6-9) .508
Miami (6-9) .542
Arizona (7-8) .488
Washington (7-8) .538
Green Bay (7-8) .538
Los Angeles Chargers (8-7) .463
Buffalo (8-7) .492
Detroit (8-7) .496
Dallas (8-7) .500
Seattle (9-6) .488

Tennessee* (8-7) .438
Baltimore* (9-6) .438
Atlanta* (9-6) .550
Carolina* (11-4) .538
Buffalo - from Kansas City* (9-6) .479
Jacksonville* (10-5) .425
Los Angeles Rams* (11-4) .500
New Orleans* (11-4) .538
Pittsburgh* (12-3) .450
Minnesota* (12-3) .500
New England* (12-3) .488
Philadelphia* (13-2) .458

Cleveland are benefiting massively from the Texans' collapse following injuries to Watson and Watt.

PhilipsR

Colts surely to chuck their game? A win will drop them to 4 at best, 5 at worst.

Billy86

Not certain of the tie breakers but a GB loss on Sunday could mean a top 12 pick (and a better chance of staff turnover, esp if it's a blowout). Playoffs are done, so time to be a Lions fan for one day!

Alfred Borden

PhilipsR wrote: »

Colts surely to chuck their game? A win will drop them to 4 at best, 5 at worst.

Based on strength of schedule (draft tiebreaker), Colts cant pick lower than 3rd even with a win on Sunday. The problem comes in later rounds where order is reversed between teams on same record. Hoping for a defeat and Giants win for the #2 though.

Lionbacker

Billy86 wrote: »

Not certain of the tie breakers but a GB loss on Sunday could mean a top 12 pick (and a better chance of staff turnover, esp if it's a blowout). Playoffs are done, so time to be a Lions fan for one day!

Well with the amount of injuries the Packers are dealing with to key players I'd be very disappointed if the Lions can't beat them on Sunday.
I'm not even sure ye'll have a fully fit 46 man active squad.

Paully D

Well, Sam Darnold was absolutely gash last night. Anyone think he might go back to college next year?

Though play-wise he'd probably benefit from another year at school, financially he'd be silly to go back IMO.

I'd be looking at the Matt Barkley situation if I was him. If Barkley had come out in 2012, he'd have been almost guaranteed to go early in the first. Instead he went back, USC had a poor season despite being ranked #1 preseason, went in the 4th round and cost himself a fortune.

Paully D

Adam Schefter reporting Josh Rosen will be hesitant to declare for the draft if it looks like Cleveland will take him #1.

However, Peter King says the below:

https://twitter.com/JoshNorris/status/947829340649254912

Jesus Christ. Imagine taking him #1 after the season he has just had. :pac:

brinty

Paully D wrote:

Jesus Christ. Imagine taking him #1 after the season he has just had.

The browns will do browns type things...

MightyMandarin

I don't follow much college football tbh, but can anyone ELI5 why Lamar Jackson isn't really highly regarded in the draft picks? He's a Heisman winner, has like 90 TD's in his college career, and seems to play like a young Michael Vick.

What makes him less wanted than Rosen or Darnold for example?

brinty

MightyMandarin wrote:

What makes him less wanted than Rosen or Darnold for example?

Size
Wants to run a lot
Erratic arm
Takes to much on himself
Things that'll count against him at NFL level

MightyMandarin

brinty wrote: »

Size
Wants to run a lot
Erratic arm
Takes to much on himself
Things that'll count against him at NFL level

Didn't people say the same things about Watson last year though?

He's also comparitively small, runs a lot and is a bit of a gunslinger, yet the Houston Offense were on fire with him.

brinty

MightyMandarin wrote:

Didn't people say the same things about Watson last year though?

He's also comparitively small, runs a lot and is a bit of a gunslinger, yet the Houston Offense were on fire with him.

Oh for sure sir but Watson also delivered on the biggest stage too in championship games. Jackson hasn't fully done it at that level every time and that's possibly why he's not at the same level of discussion

MightyMandarin

brinty wrote: »

Oh for sure sir but Watson also delivered on the biggest stage too in championship games. Jackson hasn't fully done it at that level every time and that's possibly why he's not at the same level of discussion

That's probably the difference I suppose.

Either way, as long as he doesn't end up at the Browns or Washington (assuming Cousins is gone), he should have a good shot at proving himself.

Paully D

Admittedly I haven't really studied any in detail yet, but from what I have seen of them all (which is sporadic, I admit), Mayfield looks the best to me based purely on his play alone.

titan18

brinty wrote:

Size Wants to run a lot Erratic arm Takes to much on himself Things that'll count against him at NFL level

Whatever about the other points, you can't knock his size. He's 6'3 and 210 pounds before going into an NFL strength program, and has a body that can put in some muscle.

His arm is the main reason, but a good and creative coach will negate those concerns.

MightyMandarin

titan18 wrote: »

Whatever about the other points, you can't knock his size. He's 6'3 and 210 pounds before going into an NFL strength program, and has a body that can put in some muscle.

His arm is the main reason, but a good and creative coach will negate those concerns.

I'd love to see what he could do with the Giants. With Beckham and Shepard as his WRs and Engram looking like a really good TE, he could do really well there, but I don't think they'll take him. If I were going into the draft as a QB, I'd probably look to them as the best option tbh.

Washington could go for him, but the last time they had a 'duel threat QB' he ended up at the Browns and was never seen again (like a lot of others tbf).

Knex*

I'd take Jackson at the Giants over Rosen and Darnold tbh.

Even better if they can trade down and still do it.

eagle eye

Not a great QB year. I'm not sold on Darnold, those concussions are a big no no so Rosen isn't an attractive option and I just don't think Lamar has what it takes to do it on Sundays.

The guy I like this year is Ryan Finley, he has a lot of things to like about him. He has a decent arm, he is accurate and has a quick release. He checks down quickly too. The only question mark I have about him is in the pocket. He never really stood too long in the pocket and I never seen him step up. He was almost always backing up and running to he left or right to give himself space. You won't get that space in the NFL so his pocket presence has to be proved. If he can show that then I think he goes a lot higher than people expect.

Knex*

Enjoyed this. Would also make me incredibly wary of Allen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HANtlQ57Mqc

My biggest concern on Jackson is that his build looks like he'll find it hard to take NFL punishment without bulking up.

HigginsJ

Knex. wrote: »

I'd take Jackson at the Giants over Rosen and Darnold tbh.

Even better if they can trade down and still do it.

I dunno, I have a hard time seeing Jackson having much if any success at the NFL level. Darnold and Rosen as far from finished articles (Rosen in particular needs a good dinner) but I'd fear taking Jackson anywhere other than a mid round project at this point.

If we have to stay put at 2, I'd rather take Barkley and come back in the 2nd for a QB (maybe Mayfield if he was still around)

HigginsJ

HigginsJ wrote: »

I dunno, I have a hard time seeing Jackson having much if any success at the NFL level. Darnold and Rosen as far from finished articles (Rosen in particular needs a good dinner) but I'd fear taking Jackson anywhere other than a mid round project at this point.

If we have to stay put at 2, I'd rather take Barkley and come back in the 2nd for a QB (maybe Mayfield if he was still around)

I could do without Barkley and zeke 4 times a year thank you very much

krustydoyle

QBs Darnold and Rosen both declare for the Draft

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

HigginsJ wrote: »

I dunno, I have a hard time seeing Jackson having much if any success at the NFL level. Darnold and Rosen as far from finished articles (Rosen in particular needs a good dinner) but I'd fear taking Jackson anywhere other than a mid round project at this point.

If we have to stay put at 2, I'd rather take Barkley and come back in the 2nd for a QB (maybe Mayfield if he was still around)

Mayfield will not be there in the second round In my opinion, too many QB needy teams. I expect Arizona or Washington to be his landing spot.

adrian522

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

Mayfield will not be there in the second round In my opinion, too many QB needy teams. I expect Arizona or Washington to be his landing spot.

He won't last the top 10 I'd imagine.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

adrian522 wrote: »

He won't last the top 10 I'd imagine.

Yeah I think that's a fair guess, too many QB needy teams.

HigginsJ

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

Yeah I think that's a fair guess, too many QB needy teams.

Yea that is fair, there is alot of very needy QB teams, alot will however depend on what happens in FA.

Foxtrol

HigginsJ wrote: »

Yea that is fair, there is alot of very needy QB teams, alot will however depend on what happens in FA.

Outside of what happens with the QBs at the Vikings I think the rest are pretty much zero sum on the demand, if a team loses their QB in FA they'll become the needy one.

I'd expect 3 QBs to go in the top 10 and another one in top 20.

HigginsJ

Foxtrol wrote: »

Outside of what happens with the QBs at the Vikings I think the rest are pretty much zero sum on the demand, if a team loses their QB in FA they'll become the needy one.

I'd expect 3 QBs to go in the top 10 and another one in top 20.

I suppose, although Alex Smith and Sam Bradford could possibly stop teams spending a 1st rounder on a QB if they move on from the Vikes and Chiefs. You never know, someone could bring back Kaep!!

Billy86

For all my pointing out the ridiculousness of teams not hiring him (which ultimately should have cost Mike McCarthy his job as it did nearly all the other staff in GB), there's not a chance a team would or should take Kaep over a 1st or 2nd round guy imo

Doubt he'll be back, but if he is I reckon it would be a midseason emergency hire, or even if in preseason it would be more to fill the spot for a year or so until a raw, high upside QB was available (he wouldn't have helped that hapless Browns team much, but a season on the bench to sit and learn without pressure I think would have been a lot more productive for Kizer this year in my opinion) so I wouldn't expect him in any setting to impact upon any draft picks.

Chiefs and Vikings are good examples though of later picking teams... and I'm praying nobody before GB's pick gets their guy so we can have a big giant run on QBs and get a premium defensive guy! Doubt there'll be much demand for Keenum who just fit the system really well (and going by all three lads' performances and what they're doing at RB it seems a pretty damn good system!) but Bradford or especially Bridgewater could fetch an awful lot of interest. Doubt Smith leaves, and unless he does I think Cousins might be in the best situation of any FA since Peyton Manning about 5 years ago. No of course he's no Peyton, but he's in an excellent position to be ridiculously valuable to a number of teams at different points in the league.

It's going to be pretty interesting at that position however, unlike last year when Jay and Tony robbed us of the circus by retiring.

HigginsJ

Billy86 wrote: »

Doubt there'll be much demand for Keenum who just fit the system really well

You'd have to be mad to take Keenum's season as anything other than an aberation, it reminds me of that run Josh McCown had with the Bears a few years back.

Keenum has been a below average back up for most of his career to date, chances are he'll revert back to that next season.

P.S. The Kaepernick thing was said tongue in cheek, I doubt he will come back

eagle eye

The only thing that went against Keenum coming out of college was his size. If he was 6'4" he would have been an early first round pick.

He has been on bad teams for most of his career and got a chance with a good offensive line this season and made it work. I think he has shown enough to interest teams. I think the Vikings should do whatever it takes to hold onto him. Bridgewater is never going to be as good as he has been this season and Bradford is just always at risk of injury. I think they should cut the pair of them and bring in a project and a veteran backup.

titan18

McCarron is another one who could get interest in FA depending on his case. With a likely 2 of Bridgewater, Bradford and Keenum available, and potential of Smith being traded, there's a few QBs to go around that don't need to replaced by the team who loses them. Cutler too I guess, but not sure many would want him as a starter anyway.

Paully D

https://twitter.com/adamschefter/status/954065139044700160

brinty

Paully D wrote: »

https://twitter.com/adamschefter/status/954065139044700160

You guys ever read Dane Brugler re draft. He is outstanding in his coverage of players. Has already reviewed 400 players and will do another 600. Come draft day he’ll have a fact about every player picked. Does a draft show now twice a week on Dallas Cowboys with a few of our media team and then covers all three days of the draft with the cowboys team.

Does every teams media do a draft show and provide coverage like that??

I had sky, nfl , Espn and cowboys open for last two years during the draft and I’ll admit the cowboys coverage was streets ahead. But maybe I’m biased

Paully D

:pac::pac::pac:

https://twitter.com/ryandleaf/status/954106578898006016

Billy86

Fair play to Leaf on that one! Social media can be infamously deceptive in this sense, but it's good that at a glance on his Twitter account he seems to have got his life together after a pretty rough few post NFL years.

Paully D

:pac:

https://twitter.com/nickijhabvala/status/956228021945618437