Euromillions - Three-in-a-row (due!!)

4068ac1elhodqr

Heavenly Pitiful Rope wrote: »

Better idea might be to run a new system of safe selections (single balls @9) and occasional doubles.

e.g. Over the last 6mths, running the single lucky slippy balls (x14):
7,17,27,37,47 + 9,10,11 + 19,20,21 + 30,40,50...

...and anything two-three balls, based around this range: 9-12inc.

Must look at stats record of any 2 (100/1) from 4 in that range
i.e. just 6 lines from 4 for any doubles, would've been net returns @16.6 tonight.

jacool

Draw 06 of 30 Tuesday 24-Oct-2017: Result 09-11-13-27-33 : Loss 100 points (Overall loss 600 points)
Bankroll now 2400 points.

The current streak is now 94, and the average of one 3 in-a-row is still 46 draws.

The pure results when looked at afterwards look good, but in reality I was never at the races.
The draw order last night was 27-09-33-13-11
The 11 fell nicely between 09 and 13 but clearly would never have been enough. I would have needed it out 4th to have some kind of a chance.
Two very shy balls fell last night, with 09 making its 99th appearance, even more popular than 33, which was appearing for the 86th time only.
Indeed it has been over 40 draws since 33 appeared – the other 4 balls have all been out in the last 10 draws.

@Accumulator I have to stick with this system now until the money runs out, but then I'll just start using your stats!!

jacool

Draw 07 of 30 Friday 27-Oct-2017
100 points staked as 48 bets @2 points on any 3 in-a-row, plus 1 bet @2 points on 02,17,45 and 1 bet @2points on 17,22,45 yet again in PP's.
Bank 3000-700=2300 points
23% through (expensive) experiment

The draw history for this log is as follows
1048 15-01-09-25-19
1049 36-04-37-21-34
1050 23-37-50-29-45
1051 19-26-17-13-36
1052 04-27-23-30-17
1053 27-09-33-13-11

Slight change to the staking tonight, as I’ve decided that there’s no point in just doubling up on two already placed bets, so I looked at stats “post 33” and am using the most common numbers to drop after 33.

My other stats are pointing me towards numbers ending in 9, so just to log it here I am doing all 5 singles @4 pts and all 10 doubles @2 pts from those 5 numbers this evening, separate from this log.
Just more “points” I feel like losing  but for my own wallet’s sake I’m capturing it here! That stake will be 40 points, with potential returns of 0 points for no numbers , 36 for matching 1 number or 173 for a pair.

jacool

Draw 07 of 30 Friday 27-Oct-2017: Result 03-16-23-32-39 : Loss 100 points (Overall loss 700 points)
Bankroll now 2300 points.

The current streak is now 95 – are we looking at heading into triple figures for the second time ever?
The average of one 3 in-a-row is still 46 draws.

The draw order last Friday night was 39-23-16-32-03.
I was never at the races, but speaking of races that I was never at, I’ll be back on the horse again tonight!
It’ll be the last draw on October, falling on Hallowe’en itself. here’s hoping it’s not a horror show for me!

jacool

Draw 08 of 30 Tuesday 41-Oct-2017
100 points staked as 48 bets @2 points on any 3 in-a-row, plus 1 bet @2 points on 04,18,34 and 1 bet @2points on 04,31,35 yet again in PP's.
Bank 3000-800=2200 points
27% through (expensive) experiment

The draw history for this log is as follows
1048 15-01-09-25-19
1049 36-04-37-21-34
1050 23-37-50-29-45
1051 19-26-17-13-36
1052 04-27-23-30-17
1053 27-09-33-13-11
1054 39-23-16-32-03

Slight change to the staking tonight, as I’ve decided that there’s no point in just doubling up on two already placed bets, so I looked at stats “post 16” a number that has only dropped 3 times in the last 100 draws. This gives me these two trebles for tonight, both @2 points 04,18,34 and 04,31,35

Note: My other stats in the last draw pointed me towards numbers ending in 9, so I did all 5 singles @4 pts and all 10 doubles @2 pts from those 5 numbers.
39 came out to leave me down 4 points on this one off caper.

jacool

Draw 09 of 30 Friday 03-Nov-2017
100 points staked as 48 bets @2 points on any 3 in-a-row, plus 1 bet @2 points on 09,19,29 and 1 bet @2points on 29,39,49 yet again in PP's.
Bank 3000-900=2210 points
30% through (expensive) experiment

Draw 09 of 30 Friday 03-Nov-2017 Result 01-12-36-43-46 : Loss 100 points (Overall loss 900 points)
Bankroll now 2100 points.

The streak for having no appearance for 3 in-a-row now stretches to 97!
The average of one 3 in-a-row is still 46 draws.

The draw order last night was 41-05-33-17-12
Never near anything
Amazingly, the week after the shyest ball 46 drops, the two joint second shyest balls 33 and 41 both drop!
Does this mean that 47 is coming tomorrow night?
Someone in the UK won the draw, so I’m guessing that was a quick pick.
I’ll be back with my 2 extra picks tomorrow, when I arrive at a third of the way through this experiment.

jacool

Draw 10 of 30 Tuesday 07-Nov-2017
100 points staked as
48 bets @2 points on any 3 in-a-row, plus four bets, each of 1 unit
1 bet @1 point on 06-18-19, 1 bet @1 point on 06-37-38, 1 bet @1 point on 17-22-23 and 1 bet @1point on 17-26-27 in PP's.
Bank 3000-1000=2000 points
33% through (expensive) experiment

The draw history for this log is as follows
1048 15-01-09-25-19
1049 36-04-37-21-34
1050 23-37-50-29-45
1051 19-26-17-13-36
1052 04-27-23-30-17
1053 27-09-33-13-11
1054 39-23-16-32-03
1055 41-05-33-17-12
1056 ??-??-??-??-??

And so we edge closer to the first anniversary of the last three-in-a-row.
Draw 959 was that draw, although I won’t be able to afford a Porsche if I win here 
That was on 29-Nov-2016, so we are 22 days off that now.
Since then, the closest two draws were successive draws, both containing the 40-41 combo.
On 04-Aug-2017 the numbers came out like this 29-30-41-40-36, meaning that after the first two numbers the odds were hugely in favour as 28 and 31 would have both been winners, and there were three more balls to be selected. That was a 23/1 chance, but then 41 and 40 dropped to bring the odds down to 11/1.
The following draw had the order 26-15-40-25-41, so only the numbers 24 and 27 would have been winners on the last drop 23/1 odds.
Right now, I would take a sweat like the first of those two draws.
I feel like we’re due a double tonight, it would be great if they were the first two balls out!

jacool

Draw 10 of 30 Tuesday 07-Nov-2017 RESULTS 07-19-20-37-41 LOSS of 100 points
Bank has now decreased from 3000 to 2000 points

In the last write-up I mentioned how 41 had fallen twice in a row, and hey presto, out it popped again for a repeat showing.
Last time out it was first out, but on Tuesday it dropped as the middle ball, sandwiched between 19 and 20.
All these balls had followed out 37, leaving me with a 23/1 chance of a win on the last ball, needing either 18 or 21.
Instead it was 07, so I lost again

I said I felt we were due a double and so it turned out, but sadly, just that.
The streak for having no appearance for 3 in-a-row now stretches to 98, two shy of triple figures, for what would only be the second time.
The average of one 3 in-a-row is still 46 draws.

The draw history for this log is as follows
1048 15-01-09-25-19
1049 36-04-37-21-34
1050 23-37-50-29-45
1051 19-26-17-13-36
1052 04-27-23-30-17
1053 27-09-33-13-11
1054 39-23-16-32-03
1055 41-05-33-17-12
1056 37-19-41-20-07

back for more tomorrow

4068ac1elhodqr

jacool wrote: »

Draw 10 of 30 Tuesday 07-Nov-2017

The draw history for this log is as follows
1048 15-01-09-25-19
1049 36-04-37-21-34
1050 23-37-50-29-45
1051 19-26-17-13-36
1052 04-27-23-30-17
1053 27-09-33-13-11
1054 39-23-16-32-03
1055 41-05-33-17-12
1056 37-19-41-20-07

That's 50% of the 'lucky-slippy balls' (balls with zeros or sevens) that I'd tend to favour there on Tues. Singular picks appear idea if the odds were more generous @9 (8/1).

Stats: 12 luckies / 45 totalballs, so every 3.75 is luckyball/10 previous draws.
With ideal luckies: 7, 10, 17, 30, 27, 30, 37, 40, 47, 50 == 10 lines,
but on rough calculation shows only small positive margin of 96pt/106%ROI.

Didn't make it into any shops, and this event isn't easily available online. Spoils show up as having the market (via googlebot search) but when processing it reverts/errors into the other 49's event.

jacool

Draw 11 of 30 Friday 10-Nov-2017
100 points staked as
48 bets @2 points on any 3 in-a-row, plus four bets, each of 1 unit
1 bet @1 point on 22-23-45, 1 bet @1 point on 24-25-45, 1 bet @1 point on 22-42-43 and 1 bet @1point on 25-44-45 in PP's.
My stats are skewing me to the 20s and 40s tonight!

Bank 3000-1100=1900 points
37% through (expensive) experiment

jacool

Draw 11 of 30 Friday 10-Nov-2017 RESULTS 13-22-29-36-37 LOSS of 100 points
bankroll = 1900 points

The streak for having no appearance for 3 in-a-row now stretches to 99, and I’m feeling a little flaky after that draw
The average of one 3 in-a-row is still 46 draws.
Saturday’s first number out was the same as last Tuesday’s as 37 popped out again, this time followed by, yes, 36 !!!
I thought that Christmas might be coming early, so settled in for the next number, only to see 29, then 22 and finally, unlucky for me, 13.
My Maths brain isn’t awake yet, but I think the odds were less than 10/1 after the first two numbers fell. I hope that’s not the closest I get.

I'm impressed that I got #22 in two of my extra lines, as that was its first showing in 35 draws!

The draw history for this log is as follows
1048 15-01-09-25-19
1049 36-04-37-21-34
1050 23-37-50-29-45
1051 19-26-17-13-36
1052 04-27-23-30-17
1053 27-09-33-13-11
1054 39-23-16-32-03
1055 41-05-33-17-12
1056 37-19-41-20-07
1057 37-36-29-22-13

back for more tomorrow!

4068ac1elhodqr

That lucky '37' must be nearly outperforming the 10yr high-freq '50' by now...
The bookies odds @9 : 8/1 for singular is still showing just about break-even-point even using the full luckies set (zeros & sevens).

5 pts/lines featuring any '7' is still however favourable with 8pts (or more) returning almost every week
i.e. 11 appearances over 10draws (88pts from 50) 156.818181818182% ROI


16pts for the last fortnight...

jacool

Heavenly Pitiful Rope wrote: »

That lucky '37' must be nearly outperforming the 10yr high-freq '50' by now...

50 124 draws
19 122
44 121
37 120

I colour-coded the numbers back when I started doing the stats, top 10, next 10, next 10 etc. looking at those now I can see that 10, 27 and 30 have made massive progress in that time, 37 was always a popular number. All these numbers play into your lists.

jacool

Draw 12 of 30 Tuesday 14-Nov-2017
100 points staked as
48 bets @2 points on any 3 in-a-row, plus four bets, each of 1 unit
1 bet @1 point on 05-24-39, 1 bet @1 point on 05-13-38, 1 bet @1 point on 13-24-38 and 1 bet @1point on 24-38-39 in PP's.
My stats are based on draws following the appearance of 22.

Bank 3000-1200=1800 points
Exactly 40% through (expensive) experiment

If three consecutive numbers are not drawn tonight, then that will be draw 100 without, and only the second time ever that this has gone into triple figures.

Ball x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 x8 x9 x0
Freq. 520 492 520 552 545 498 550 500 552 561
This shows that balls ending in “0” are the most popular

supremenovice

Winner alright!! Congratulations man!
39,40,41
Perseverance pays Off!!!

IncognitoMan

Well played, enjoyed reading the thread and will be keeping an eye out for the next one if you do any.

4068ac1elhodqr

1500/1 return if you have 39,40,41 clearly written on your betslip at the bookies tomorrow morning



What's the next approach, how's about double stake for lucky doubles
e.g. 20&37, or 27&30 for a nice 100/1 ?

supremenovice

Heavenly Pitiful Rope wrote: »

What's the next approach, how's about double stake for lucky doubles
e.g. 20&37, or 27&30 for a nice 100/1 ?

How about hammering into my 919 long streak of 2, 41. 100/1 when it lands.
Its been breaking my heart since August 2016 when I first discovered this cold streak.

4068ac1elhodqr

supremenovice wrote: »

How about hammering into my 919 long streak of 2, 41. 100/1 when it lands.
Its been breaking my heart since August 2016 when I first discovered this cold streak.

2 = cold and not heavy 41 = not slippy, or lucky.

Prefer the balls that fit the criteria of lucky (7's) slippy (0's) or heavy (44,48..)
100/1 for a pair isn't bad, now that the triple if off the table for a while.

Whilst considering Ja's effort to achieve the hatrick, it's not overly rewarding as the effort (if/to cover all bases is 48 pts/lines) over 'just 15.6wks' (on each Tue&Fri draw) equates to the *break-even-point of 1,500. I.e. There is typically only a 4 month window in which to succeed. In this instance the Jacool did it in approx just 35% of the allocated BEP* time, so 300%c ROI.

jacool

Draw 12 of 30 Tuesday 14-Nov-2017 RESULTS 14-16-39-40-41 win of 3002 points !!!!!!
100 points staked as
48 bets @2 points on any 3 in-a-row, plus four bets, each of 1 unit
1 bet @1 point on 05-24-39, 1 bet @1 point on 05-13-38, 1 bet @1 point on 13-24-38 and 1 bet @1point on 24-38-39 in PP's.

Exactly 40% through (expensive) experiment, and nailed it!
Money staked 1200 points, winnings 3002 – profit 1802 points !!

The streak for having no appearance for 3 in-a-row reached 99 and no further!
The average of one 3 in-a-row drops from 46 to 44 draws.
This is the 24th such draw since the Euromillions began.
What this means is that if you placed my bet from day 1 it would have cost 50832 points.
Last night’s draw brought potential winnings therefore to 36024. leaving an overall loss of -14808 points!
So, I guess you have to be selective as to when you start playing!!
This trio of results is the reason why I may play again in three draws time
828 28 August 2015 3
861 22 December 2015 33
864 01 January 2016 3
In 2015, three draws after 10-11-12 fell on 18-August, we saw 29-30-31 drop on 28th of August.
Similarly, we saw 18-19-20 out before Christmas on 22nd of December, followed by 37-38-39 on the day when all is quiet, January 1st 2016. For those reasons, I’ll be back in Paddy’s on Friday week, staking a final 100 points.

For the record, last night’s first number out was 16, and then bang, bang, bang, like busses in the rain 40, 39 and 41 fell to guarantee the win, with 14 coming out last.

The draw history for this log is as follows
1048 15-01-09-25-19
1049 36-04-37-21-34
1050 23-37-50-29-45
1051 19-26-17-13-36
1052 04-27-23-30-17
1053 27-09-33-13-11
1054 39-23-16-32-03
1055 41-05-33-17-12
1056 37-19-41-20-07
1057 37-36-29-22-13
1058 16-40-39-41-14

I put the log up because that was the main thing that I knew would guarantee me heading into town twice a week to place the bet.
Thanks to everyone who read, contributed and sowed the seeds for perhaps another adventure!
I have all the stats here burning a hole in my pocket, but Accumulator’s take on them is quite interesting.
As I’ve said, I’ll place the bet again on Friday 24th November, and see what I’ll do after that.

I’ll also break supremenovice’s heart with stats about the number 02, seeing as 41 has been out 3 of the last 4 draws now!


Can’t wait to roll up to PPs today and collect!

jacool

It may not say 39,40,41 explicitly, but it looks obvious to me

jacool

The case against 02-41 combining in one draw!

In 2017, 02 has been out in 9 draws, pairing up with 40, 42, 43, 44, 45, 47, 49 and 50. For three of those draws 02 and 44 were drawn together.
In 2017, 41 has been out in 9 draws, pairing up with 01, 05, 07 and 09. There have been two double pairings 01-41 and 05-41.
02 made 8 of its appearances in the first 6 months of 2017.
41 made 7 of its appearances in the latter half of 2017.
In reality, the closest they have been together is in draws 1006, on 12-May-17 and 1016, on 16-Jun-17, some 10 draws apart.
Clearly, they just don’t get along!

Oh hang on !
Just to be a completionist I went back to pre-draw 140 to see that in draw 120, they came out as a pair as well!
So since that last “famous” second pairing on 13-Oct-2006, the closest they have been is in successive draws, as follows,
364-365, then a major rush in January 2013 of 551-554 (more anon), 667-668, 698-699 and 919-920 (this last pair back in July 2016)

Being an utter pedant (in an effort to save supremenovice a few quid), I further analysed these draws and came up with the crazy fact that based on the actual order of the balls falling, the ONLY other time that 02 and 41 fell within the same 5 ball “window” was a combination of draws 552 and 553, as 41 was the final ball out on 04-Jan-2013 and 02 was the 4th ball out 4 days later!
So, in summary, you are being offered odds of 100/1 on something that has “reality” odds of over 500/1.

If I was looking for pairs this weekend I’d be combining from 03, 11, 17, 29 and 37, and I’d guarantee a better return than from 02 and 41!!
(These are the kinds of numbers Accumulator likes as well, well, 2 of them!)
5C2 is 10 doubles from that quintet. Not playing it myself, just helping supremenovice !! So 10 points down for a potential 101 return !

4068ac1elhodqr

Indeed 37 is a lovely number, that or 27 - usually they like to pair up with the zero types of 20,30,40 and of course '5 0 bullseye' 50 is the singular record holder.

Just scanned through a few more online books, no one seems to be able anymore, to offer custom euromillions selections (only shops).
Probably some sort of non-competitive ad clause to protect the tax proceeds, pensions, operation fees and what have you.

jacool

Looking back at the wait for 02-41, got me thinking about looking for things that might be overdue, but have been out more frequently than 02-41, and also, offer better odds.
I started looking at trebles, with odds of 1500/1 you can afford to go on a bit of a wait before a winner arrives.
The most common treble of 10-19-23, is the only treble to have been drawn 5 times, and was last drawn in draw 950, over a year ago, in October 2016.
There are then about 50 different trebles which have come out 4 times. Of these 14-16-40 was the most recent occurrence, just there in my winning draw.
So what I’ve done is gone back into the trebles that have appeared three times, in an effort to see what would be the next 14-16-40, which gives me this list.
09-28-49
12-19-38
07-12-26
07-21-44
04-14-50
01-04-48
26-49-50
36-42-46
24-34-36
10-22-27
Because I’ve only just happened across this idea, and I don’t want to lose all my profits, I will only play this idea for 10 draws.
I intend playing each of the 10 trebles, for 1 unit a play, for 10 weeks, therefore with a, rather more manageable, bankroll of 100 units.
Good luck to me!

jacool

PLAN B 10 rounds of trebles
Round 01
Stake 10 points of bankroll 100, 1 point on each treble, leaving bankroll of 90 points
Result, in order drawn 35-36-26-42-20
LOSS of 10 points
After the first two numbers came out I was wondering if I had abandoned the earlier experiment too early
Trebles Number of numbers
09-28-49 0
12-19-38 0
07-12-26 1
07-21-44 0
04-14-50 0
01-04-48 0
26-49-50 1
36-42-46 2 hit the post with this one, was on 45/1 shot for the last ball
24-34-36 1
10-22-27 0

We go again on Tuesday night.

jacool

PLAN B 10 rounds of trebles
Round 02 Draw 1061
Stake 10 points, 1 point on each treble, leaving bankroll of 80 points
Ten Trebles
09-28-49
12-19-38
07-12-26
07-21-44
04-14-50
01-04-48
26-49-50
36-42-46
24-34-36
10-22-27

Once again we are off to PPs, where the pay-out story on the last bet was funny.

I waited until the guy who knows the numbers turned up.
I sometimes play the 49s and he’s the only one who understands the bets I place.
“Is there something off this?” . I explain.
He goes off and checks, put the ticket through, and offers me half the return.
I tell him what I’m expecting and then he apologises, saying he thought all the stakes were the same.
He had looked at the bottom 4 trebles which were half the stake of the top 48 bets.
He then had to put the ticket through again, counted the 50s, got someone else to confirm and handed it over.
I know he wasn’t taking the p*ss, but he was rushing around. The others in there wouldn’t have had a clue.

Hopefully, this one hits too and I’ll be running back in there again !!

jacool

PLAN B 10 rounds of trebles
Round 02 Draw 1061 Result in draw order 31-28-10-02-14 LOSS 10 pts
Remaining bankroll 80 points
Trebles Match
09-28-49 1
12-19-38 0
07-12-26 0
07-21-44 0
04-14-50 1
01-04-48 0
26-49-50 0
36-42-46 0
24-34-36 0
10-22-27 1
Draw order irrelevant here, as we didn’t have any pairs.
Round 3 beckons this Friday

Notes on this draw:
This was the 11th “birthday” draw of 2017, meaning that all numbers are potential birthdays, which usually increases the odds of the main prize being won. The main prize was not won, though 10 people did have all the main numbers.
This was the 2nd draw this year where 4 even numbers came out two draws in a row, in both cases the numbers 10 and 14 were in the second draw.
For supremenovice, his #02 appeared (first show in 27) and was accompanied by a number ending in “1”, sadly for him it was 31 and not 41.
This was a draw for “shy” numbers. As well as 02, we also saw 28 re-appear after 22 draws, and 10 appear after 27 draws.
Four out of the last five times that we had 1/4 ODD/EVEN there were no numbers drawn between 11 and 20 in the subsequent draw.
The record for 1/4 ODD/EVEN is four consecutive draws, where 02 was drawn in the 2nd and 4th draws, so if it happens again on Friday, there’s an 8/1 banker a week’s time!

I’ll be back with the same bets on Friday.

jacool

PLAN B 10 rounds of trebles
Round 03 Draw 1062 Result in draw order 28-24-50-19-30
Stake 10 points, 1 point on each treble, leaving bankroll of 80 points
Trebles Match
09-28-49 1
12-19-38 1
07-12-26 0
07-21-44 0
04-14-50 1
01-04-48 0
26-49-50 1
36-42-46 0
24-34-36 1
10-22-27 0
Draw order irrelevant here, as we didn’t have any pairs.
Round 4 beckons this Tuesday

Notes on this draw:
The main prize was not won, and no-one matched the 5+1 either. A quarter of a million for anyone who got Match 5.
This was the 2nd time that we have now had three 1/4 ODD/EVEN spreads in a row.
This means that supremenovice can get excited as I give #02 a 50% chance of appearing tomorrow night!
This is due to the fact that there was once previously 4 of these draws in a row with #02 appearing in the 2nd and 4th draws in the series.
To complete the picture – the other time we had the three in a row it was followed by 5 odd numbers, all over 25!
I’m backing 02 anyway.
I’m also doing the the 10 bets above
AND
I’m repeating my trebles bet from PLAN A of this thread as we have now had a three draw run since the three-in-a-row fell and that gap has twice returned another three-in-a-row.
And to simplify matters, and keep a consistent stake I am taking “cute geoge”’s advice, and going to do 49,50,01 and 50,01,02 as well, so it will be 50 equal stakes.
The mixed stakes confused the payout last time round.
My optimism is high for this draw, even though it will be expensive, with 3 different betting strategies.
I am supposed to give them back all my winnings aren’t I?

jacool

PLAN B 10 rounds of trebles (with a side order of PLAN A)
Round 04 Draw 1063 Stake 10 points, 1 point on each treble, leaving bankroll of 70 points
Trebles
09-28-49
12-19-38
07-12-26
07-21-44
04-14-50
01-04-48
26-49-50
36-42-46
24-34-36
10-22-27

I am also making the following two bets tonight, as I throw my money back to PPs as quickly as I can
50 trebles @ 2pts Any three in a row e.g. 1,2,3 2,3,4 up to 48,49,50 along with 49,50,1 & 50,1,2

Finally, 10 points single on number 2

Total stake 120 points GLTM!

4068ac1elhodqr

There's an old saying 'know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em'.
Ideally the triple approach should have finished when objective was met.

Going forward the best approach may be single point on 4balls (8wks in advance).
And just maybe 3pt on statistical doubles (maybe including the bullseye),
otherwise prepare and expect to wave bye bye to any/all recent gains.