Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

Reckless Abandonment

my3cents wrote: »

But do you believe it will miss us by 100 miles?

It could. 300 even.
These storms are always unpredictable. And a 100 miles either way can have a big impact.
Look at hurricane Irma. she was heading to the east of Florida for days . upuntill 2 days out ,then She ran up the west of Florida instead.

Storm 10

Looking at Marine Traffic on Sunday should give you a good idea of the storm coming in, if its bad most ships and trawlers off the Coast will seek shelter and Marine Traffic will be showing no vessels off the South, West and North Coasts or where ever its likely to hit.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-10.4/centery:43.2/zoom:7

ninebeanrows

Impacts are expected Monday c. 1200utc. Expect Amber warning Saturday afternoon, discussion regarding red status occurring Sunday evening / Monday AM

jasper100

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

It could. 300 even.
These storms are always unpredictable. And a 100 miles either way can have a big impact.
Look at hurricane Irma. she was heading to the east of Florida for days . upuntill 2 days out ,then She ran up the west of Florida instead.

Exactly, and no amount of fancy pictures on this thread, normally cherry picked to show the most extreme outcomes, will alter the fact that the strongest winds could remain off shore, and / or it weakens enough to be a thing of nothing.

Sunday is time enough to be issueing red warnings if the threat is still active at that point.

Gaoth Laidir

pad199207 wrote: »

EWRC?

I doubt it. Such a small storm of low wind category over cold waters with increasing shear...

my3cents

jasper100 wrote: »

Exactly, and no amount of fancy pictures on this thread, normally cherry picked to show the most extreme outcomes, will alter the fact that the strongest winds could remain off shore, and / or it weakens enough to be a thing of nothing.

Sunday is time enough to be issueing red warnings if the threat is still active at that point.

I don't think Sunday is soon enough. I really don't mind if the warning is couched in maybe's but it should be far more than 24 hours in advance.

MJohnston

jasper100 wrote: »

Sunday is time enough to be issueing red warnings if the threat is still active at that point.

I really disagree with that tbh

Reckless Abandonment

MJohnston wrote: »

I really disagree with that tbh

This time tomorrow is my bet. If she's showing a close approach to the west or even running up the country. Met will spring into life. So far I'm very happy with how they are handling the warnings

Kermit.de.frog

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Latest visible satellite image and recent SSMIS 37GHz microwave image, showing it losing the western half of its eyewall.

On the Weather Channel they just said the eye is still defined but is covered by Cirrus clouds and thus may re-emerge on visible later on today.

vapor trails

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Hurricane Gordon in September 2006 took a similar unusual track as it approached Ireland from the Azores and north west Spain,
https://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200608.html
All I remember from Gordon, an extra-tropical storm by the time it reached us, was a lot of branches everywhere the morning after.

Golfers might remember this storm as being the one that came the night before the start of the Ryder Cup in the K Club. I do remember a few tree's fell on the course overnight and there was bit of a scramble to get the place in playing order before it kicked off on Friday morning at 7:30am.

iguana

jasper100 wrote: »

I don't know, we will have to wait and see. But there is, from what I can see, still a good chance that this could be a damp squib causing minimal damage.

It doesn't take huge winds to cause damage if some people don't prepare for it. I mentioned to a few people today that I secured the trampoline and put away any garden toys that have potential to act like a sail/kite to be on the safe side and was met with faces. At least a quarter of my neighbours still have trampolines/hammock swings/tented climbing frames in the middle of their gardens. Some in front gardens, a low wall and a meter or two from reasonably busy roads. This is in Limerick where we are quite likely to have winds in excess of what it takes to lift a trampoline.

We'd normally have another month or so before they have to be taken in/secured, so it really wouldn't hurt for some stronger guidance to be issued about the likelihood of very strong winds in the next few days. It doesn't have to be doomsday/stock up on canned goods type warnings but it would be wise, imo, to make it clear to people that securing their garden furniture and animals would be prudent.

MJohnston

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

This time tomorrow is my bet. If she's showing a close approach to the west or even running up the country. Met will spring into life. So far I'm very happy with how they are handling the warnings

Yes, I'm fine with how they've handled it up to this point. It's tomorrow that is key, they need to give people that extra 24 hours to prepare imo.

outsourced_ire

MJohnston wrote: »

Yes, I'm fine with how they've handled it up to this point. It's tomorrow that is key, they need to give people that extra 24 hours to prepare imo.

I would agree. In some ways they're damned if they do, and damned if they don't. If they put out a stronger warning, and it doesn't materialise, people are slating them. Still a while away.

Kermit.de.frog

outsourced_ire wrote: »

I would agree. In some ways they're damned if they do, and damned if they don't. If they put out a stronger warning, and it doesn't materialise, people are slating them. Still a while away.

I would air on the side of adequately warning people to be honest. The best that happens is a localised damage event at this stage.

The worst, well,

MJohnston

outsourced_ire wrote: »

I would agree. In some ways they're damned if they do, and damned if they don't. If they put out a stronger warning, and it doesn't materialise, people are slating them. Still a while away.

This is my point though - if it doesn't materialise, they've just upset a few silly people who were probably looking for a reason to get upset anyway. If it does materialise and they haven't sufficiently warned? Disastrous.

Turtwig

Regardless of a public warning they should at last have considered informing the local authorities and education boards just how much potential this has before the weekend. Putting preparations in place over the weekend for schools and local authorities will likely be nowhere as smooth as if they were doing it mid week.

ectoraige

DominoDub wrote: »

354 people in the Weather forum on a work day is it Snowing ?

Probably not in Cork anyway...

Reckless Abandonment

Turtwig wrote: »

Regardless of a public warning they should at last have considered informing the local authorities and education boards just how much potential this has before the weekend. Putting preparations in place over the weekend for schools and local authorities will likely be nowhere as smooth as if they were doing it mid week.

In fairness they have. What more can they say. We're tracking a possible storm a little unsure yet as to how bad it will be or where it will be, stay posted.

jd

Turtwig wrote: »

Regardless of a public warning they should at last have considered informing the local authorities and education boards just how much potential this has before the weekend.

I got an alert early yesterday afternoon from Fingal Co Co warning of a potential event, so I presume ME have alerted LAs

jasper100

Turtwig wrote: »

Regardless of a public warning they should at last have considered informing the local authorities and education boards just how much potential this has before the weekend. Putting preparations in place over the weekend for schools and local authorities will likely be nowhere as smooth as if they were doing it mid week.

Pointless issueing warning about something that might not happen. Schools and local authorities have standard procedures for reacting to actual warnings that get issued by met eireann.

If it's a Monday or a Thursday the event occurs their response will be the same.

MJohnston

jasper100 wrote: »

Pointless issueing warning about something that might not happen.

It definitely isn't pointless.

jasper100

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

In fairness they have. What more can they say. We're tracking a possible storm a little unsure yet as to how bad it will be or where it will be, stay posted.

Same as every potential storm approaching our shores I suspect.

Jpmarn

Saw the 6z run from gfc on Netweather.tv. Judging by the intensity I would give red for Cork and Kerry and amber for the rest of Munster and all of Connacht and Donegal. Yellow for the remainder of the country.

Ophelia will be like a cow being hunted from rich pastures of the south to poorer pastures further north. It depends how much hay or silage is available in order for it to thrive or else die down.

It unbelievable how much this thread is on fire. It is very like that Ophelia is here right now.

Hooks Golf Handicap

Your damned if you do call it & damned if you don't.
You've to be prepared for smart arses posting this after.

jasper100

MJohnston wrote: »

It definitely isn't pointless.

Of course, lets lockdown the entire country 3 days before every possible wind event reaches our shores and effects one or two counties.

Coax

Turtwig wrote: »

Regardless of a public warning they should at last have considered informing the local authorities and education boards just how much potential this has before the weekend. Putting preparations in place over the weekend for schools and local authorities will likely be nowhere as smooth as if they were doing it mid week.

My local national school still haven't gotten back to me yet on whether the school will close if a Red warning is issued.

Three years ago they closed the school during the height of the winds. I don't want the same situation this time.

Bus Eireann stop the school bus service in areas where a red warning is issued. I know there is a framework in place for closing schools but it doesn't take into account a developing situation over a weekend as far as I can see.

An alert to parents that if a red warning is issued that the school will be closed is adequate at this stage, followed up by a definite notification if one is issued. It's quite simple, it's called planning ahead or preparing. For some reason, as a nation we resist this notion and complain if an event doesn't materialise after a warning. We need to get it into our heads that it's a warning not a guarantee! Obviously this is a genrral observation to the "sure it'll never happen" brigade rather than the folk who participate in the weather forum.

MJohnston

jasper100 wrote: »

Of course, lets lockdown the entire country 3 days before every possible wind event reaches our shores and effects one or two counties.

Nobody is talking about locking down the country, stop making things up.

sjb25

Yep don't issue early serious warnings and it's bad why didn't they say earlier

Issue early serious warning and it's not to bad oh why did the overstate it the school is closed if to take a day of work to mind the kids etc etc

Can't win

Think what they are doing is reasonable tell people this is on the way be prepared for now till we see what happens

PukkaStukka

jasper100 wrote: »

Of course, lets lockdown the entire country 3 days before every possible wind event reaches our shores and effects one or two counties.

The current warnings and concerns are well justified, even if subsequent warnings prove to be over-estimates. This storm has serious potential and as much as we all love a bit of weather, I for one hope we don't get hit head on by this. It's not good.

Deank

jasper100 wrote: »

Of course, lets lockdown the entire country 3 days before every possible wind event reaches our shores and effects one or two counties.

Who said anything about locking down the country

Informing people of the potential is absolutely the right thing to do, if it comes to nothing there's no loss, a direct hit with 180kph winds will cause widespread damage, I'd rather be informed than not.