Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

Jobs OXO

Is there any chance this might clear the way for some snow?

smunchkins

I got an email from Airbnb last night about it, so it has been noted by some companies anyway.

Rebelbrowser

Have barely posted since last winter I'd say. Was just stopping by to see if there were any early predictions for winter 17/18 and next thing you know people are talking about hurricanes (ok, ex-tropical storms)! Wasn't expecting to see the forum so busy I have to say but all very interesting now I am reading into it.

On a small parochial, sporting, point, Cork City FC need two points to win the LOI and are playing Derry at home on Monday night. If they don't beat Bohs tonight they would be expected to win the league on Monday night and would have expected a full house for the occasion. Me thinks that that Monday night game in Cork, with Derry expected to travel 300 miles to it, looks a bit unlikely now!

jasper100

Coax wrote: »

My local national school still haven't gotten back to me yet on whether the school will close if a Red warning is issued.

Three years ago they closed the school during the height of the winds. I don't want the same situation this time.

Bus Eireann stop the school bus service in areas where a red warning is issued. I know there is a framework in place for closing schools but it doesn't take into account a developing situation over a weekend as far as I can see.

An alert to parents that if a red warning is issued that the school will be closed is adequate at this stage, followed up by a definite notification if one is issued. It's quite simple, it's called planning ahead or preparing. For some reason, as a nation we resist this notion and complain if an event doesn't materialise after a warning. We need to get it into our heads that it's a warning not a guarantee! Obviously this is a genrral observation to the "sure it'll never happen" brigade rather than the folk who participate in the weather forum.

So should every parent of every child in every county be told today that the school will be closed on Monday if met eireann issue a red alert because some storm way off in the Atlantic might hit a few counties on Monday?

jasper100

Deank wrote: »

Who said anything about locking down the country

Informing people of the potential is absolutely the right thing to do, if it comes to nothing there's no loss, a direct hit with 180kph winds will cause widespread damage, I'd rather be informed than not.

People have been informed by met eireann since yesterday.

Gaoth Laidir

Turtwig wrote: »

Regardless of a public warning they should at last have considered informing the local authorities and education boards just how much potential this has before the weekend. Putting preparations in place over the weekend for schools and local authorities will likely be nowhere as smooth as if they were doing it mid week.

How do you know that they haven't been in contact with the local authorities? Lots of official communication goes on behind the scenes and we never know of it, but maybe you do. It's still over 72 hours out and there's plenty of time. With 3 days to go not even the authorities in Florida, etc. issue Hurricane/Storm Warnings yet, unless it's a Cat 4/5 monster.

server down

jasper100 wrote: »

Of course, lets lockdown the entire country 3 days before every possible wind event reaches our shores and effects one or two counties.

You seem to be trolling.

MJohnston

jasper100 wrote: »

People have been informed by met eireann since yesterday.

You're just ignoring the fact that nobody said anything about locking down the country then?

Those kinds of posts help no-one, imo they simply indulge in what I'll call "overhyping the hype", and I'm not sure what the end goal is.

show me the money.1

Or the give a massive warning to early for this and it never materialises, then people will ignore the next warning they send out and there could be mayhem. They must be sure if they are going to give a red warning and the cannot be at this moment.

dsmythy

If I see a red warning for Dublin the little lad isn't going to school. School can do what it wants.

PukkaStukka

dsmythy wrote: »

If I see a red warning for Dublin the little lad isn't going to school. School can do what it wants.

Same here. I live in an area surrounded by high trees and which is particularly prone to wind-blown debris. I wouldn't venture out in it, and I'm certainly not sending the kids to school in it either.

Gaoth Laidir

12Z wind analysis, with 79-knot max winds. Hurricane-force winds extend out to 50 miles east from the centre.

George Sunsnow

GL,max sustained winds or gusts?

MJohnston

show me the money.1 wrote: »

Or the give a massive warning to early for this and it never materialises, then people will ignore the next warning they send out and there could be mayhem. They must be sure if they are going to give a red warning and the cannot be at this moment.

Personally I think this "Boy who cried wolf" effect doesn't really exist - can anyone even remember the last time Met E (not the tabloids) drastically overstated the warning for a storm? People just don't remember these things.

Hooks Golf Handicap

When would Met E go full warning.
24 or 48 hours out ?

Ever since they cocked up a snow forcast for Donegal they seem loath to go all in.

Kermit.de.frog

jasper100 on Monday

George Sunsnow

I said this upthread
Met Éireann are handling this very well
Better than Darwin
They are informing of the risk of a high impact storm
That is definitely sufficient language to inform people to be prepapared at this stage
It means if they issue a red warning ,people won’t be taken by surprise and means if it is mostly discerned likely by tomorrow to be of lesser impact and covered by yellow or amber it’s still very good information

kilkenny31

MJohnston wrote: »

Personally I think this "Boy who cried wolf" effect doesn't really exist - can anyone even remember the last time Met E (not the tabloids) drastically overstated the warning for a storm? People just don't remember these things.

Weather Bomb.

jasper100

MJohnston wrote: »

Personally I think this "Boy who cried wolf" effect doesn't really exist - can anyone even remember the last time Met E (not the tabloids) drastically overstated the warning for a storm? People just don't remember these things.

Not a storm but a few years ago met eireann predicted snow in Donegal which never happened. Stuff got cancelled and hotels lost business. Then there was no snow.

frozenfrozen

It's not as if it's made up to try get everyone to do a bit of work in the garden this weekend, there's a storm coming in our direction and everyone should prepare for the worst and be pleasantly surprised if it misses us.

Stupid for anyone to get upset by the idea that it may not happen, every chart is showing that at best it's going to be a very windy day and at worst it could cause serious damage. It will do no harm for people to prepare for that scenario.

PukkaStukka

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I said this upthread
Met Éireann are handling this very well
Better than Darwin
They are informing of the risk of a high impact storm
That is definitely sufficient language to inform people to be prepapared at this stage
It means if they issue a red warning ,people won’t be taken by surprise and means if it mostly discerned likely by tomorrow to be of lesser impact and covered by yellow or amber it’s still very good information

Agree 100%. I said similar too teatime yesterday. I'm fully behind their handling, advice and careful choice of language on this. It is desperately tricky one.

My name is URL

Is it safe to assume that there'll be some disruption to flights to Dublin on Sunday night?

PukkaStukka

jasper100 wrote: »

Not a storm but a few years ago met eireann predicted snow in Donegal which never happened. Stuff got cancelled and hotels lost business. Then there was no snow.

Sorry, this seems like trolling,

MJohnston

My name is URL wrote: »

Is it safe to assume that there'll be some disruption to flights to Dublin on Sunday night?

There shouldn't be, most of the effects of the storm will be self-contained and won't arrive until the middle of Monday afternoon.

jasper100

PukkaStukka wrote: »

Sorry, this seems like trolling,

http://m.independent.ie/irish-news/big-storm-is-brewing-as-met-team-face-threat-of-lawsuit-25959437.html

emeldc

Some folk not taking any chances anyway :P

MJohnston

emeldc wrote: »

Some folk not taking any chances anyway :P

Didn't know they had Walmart stores in Ireland now!

MJohnston

jasper100 wrote: »

http://m.independent.ie/irish-news/big-storm-is-brewing-as-met-team-face-threat-of-lawsuit-25959437.html

It doesn't seem like ME were at fault there?

vicwatson

frozenfrozen wrote: »

It's not as if it's made up to try get everyone to do a bit of work in the garden this weekend, there's a storm coming in our direction and everyone should prepare for the worst and be pleasantly surprised if it misses us.

Stupid for anyone to get upset by the idea that it may not happen, every chart is showing that at best it's going to be a very windy day and at worst it could cause serious damage. It will do no harm for people to prepare for that scenario.

No need to be concerned if it's just a very windy day, we are all used to them

Coax

jasper100 wrote: »

So should every parent of every child in every county be told today that the school will be closed on Monday if met eireann issue a red alert because some storm way off in the Atlantic might hit a few counties on Monday?

If a Red warning is issued then in the areas covered by that Red warning YES.

Bus Eireann STOP the school bus service in areas covered by a Red warning.

Safety is paramount. More so for children and the vulnerable who can't make decisions for themselves in such circumstances.

My local school shut and called parents to collect their children during the height of the storm February three years ago.

Most roads locally were blocked and parents got anxious. It was the time of the highest winds and a very poor call.

As I suggested, evaluate the information to hand currently then send an advisory that IF a Red warning is issued that the school will be closed and follow up with confirmation if indeed a closure is warranted.

This applies only to Red warning areas, not the whole country or even whole county.