Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

frozenfrozen

vicwatson wrote: »

No need to be concerned if it's just a very windy day, we are all used to them

best case scenario

and people out in the sticks would always be happy to hear of a warning for a very windy day. We have tarps over wood that are fine for normal windy days but need extra tying down for extra wind.

If you're upset that you may have to mind your kiddies on monday because schools could be unnecessarily closed then I'll play the worlds smallest violin for you

munsterlegend

Schools should definitely be closed in a red warning situation. Anyway it's too early yet for specific warnings. This could still by tomorrow move a couple hundred of miles west and Monday could be just a normal breezy day.

testicles

This post has been deleted.

lucernarian

dacogawa wrote: »

As they said in the model "if anything in this graphic causes confusion, ignore the entire product"

I think gaoth Laidir provided a simpler answer to my question (a link for the model abbreviations)

vicwatson

frozenfrozen wrote: »

best case scenario

and people out in the sticks would always be happy to hear of a warning for a very windy day. We have tarps over wood that are fine for normal windy days but need extra tying down for extra wind.

If you're upset that you may have to mind your kiddies on monday because schools could be unnecessarily closed then I'll play the worlds smallest violin for you

Don't be pratish yeh.

People out in the sticks as you put it have more than one ear on the weather, they aren't stupid, weather forecast is like a religion to most sticks people as you put it:rolleyes:

MJohnston

testicles wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

If the forecast pans out, I'd expect most Monday afternoon flights to be cancelled, though the user JXC BXC will be able to clarify that better, and it does depend on the exact timing of the arrival of the strongest winds to Dublin.

Coax

testicles wrote: »

So my flight due into Dublin on Monday afternoon is going to be like a rollercoaster?

A little, in that it'll go up then go down

Sorry, couldn't resist that one

To Alcohol

Ex Tropical, Ex Hurricane.

Most likely a non event. Just another windy day with a few shorter heavy burst. Ireland sits in the North Atlantic. By the time it reaches our shores any potential damaging winds will have well dissipated.

MJohnston

vicwatson wrote: »

Don't be pratish yeh.

People out in the sticks as you put it have more than one ear on the weather, they aren't stupid, weather forecast is like a religion to most sticks people as you put it:rolleyes:

I think the point is it's fine if you don't want to take a forecast too seriously, or worry about it, totally fine. But why are you worried about how other people react to it? How does that effect your life?

MJohnston

To Alcohol wrote: »

Ex Tropical, Ex Hurricane.

Most likely a non event. Just another windy day with a few shorter heavy burst. Ireland sits in the North Atlantic. By the time it reaches our shores any potential damaging winds will have well dissipated.

Posts like this where someone just dips into a long running thread to offer some 'expert' advice and then disappears again...they're hilarious!

vicwatson

MJohnston wrote: »

I think the point is it's fine if you don't want to take a forecast too seriously, or worry about it, totally fine. But why are you worried about how other people react to it? How does that effect your life?

No affect on my life at all thanks. It's getting like after hours here:)

km79

MJohnston wrote: »

Posts like this where someone just dips into a long running thread to offer some 'expert' advice and then disappears again...they're hilarious!

Tis nearly enough to turn ya to alcohol

lucernarian

vicwatson wrote: »

Don't be pratish yeh.

People out in the sticks as you put it have more than one ear on the weather, they aren't stupid, weather forecast is like a religion to most sticks people as you put it:rolleyes:

I think that is the point frozenfrozen tried to make? No need to react like that, if someone said I'm from the sticks I wouldn't get bent out of shape about it.

frozenfrozen

vicwatson wrote: »

Don't be pratish yeh.

People out in the sticks as you put it have more than one ear on the weather, they aren't stupid, weather forecast is like a religion to most sticks people as you put it:rolleyes:

What exactly are you getting upset about again? Maybe I'm totally missing your point?

Kermit.de.frog

If you don't prepare at all for potential damage to your property no matter how big or small from a storm like this despite all the advice you deserve everything you get.

irish1967

Is it just me or has this thread kinda wandered off into arguments. ?

DOCARCH

Mod Note: Anymore off topic posts will be deleted.

coillsaille

Coax wrote: »

My local national school still haven't gotten back to me yet on whether the school will close if a Red warning is issued.

Three years ago they closed the school during the height of the winds. I don't want the same situation this time.

Bus Eireann stop the school bus service in areas where a red warning is issued. I know there is a framework in place for closing schools but it doesn't take into account a developing situation over a weekend as far as I can see.

An alert to parents that if a red warning is issued that the school will be closed is adequate at this stage, followed up by a definite notification if one is issued. It's quite simple, it's called planning ahead or preparing. For some reason, as a nation we resist this notion and complain if an event doesn't materialise after a warning. We need to get it into our heads that it's a warning not a guarantee! Obviously this is a genrral observation to the "sure it'll never happen" brigade rather than the folk who participate in the weather forum.

The official Dept of Education guidelines state that schools "should consider closing" if in an area covered by a red warning, not that they must close.
I waa told before the reason for this is that if the school makes the decision then the Dept can compel the school to make up the lost time during Easter holidays but not if the school was instructed to close. Cannot confirm that is definitely true though.

Oneiric 3

Meteorite58 wrote: »

cherryghost

Current max sustained winds of 105mph. Not far off Cat 3 status but I dont see it gathering energy. Though in all honesty the current temps is surprising it got this strong in the first place.

Jpmarn

There has been some queries about flights next Monday with Storm Ophelia. The latest model runs suggests that there shouldn't be much disruption to Dublin Airport with some Aer Lingus Regional may become cancelled. It will have a bit more of an impact on Cork and Shannon. It may cause diversions if it is bad especially in Cork where cross winds could be a major issue.

ascophyllum

Could be worth noting that the wind direction will be interesting for this storm: for example in Mayo, its showing gusts over 100kmh, but from a South East direction. We're quite used to those speeds from the SW, W and NW, and anything that could be blown down or damaged from that angle is long gone, but when it comes from the SE, buildings, trees, etc. might not have ever been tested.
A few years ago here in Mayo, a water treatment plant had its roof blown away when the SE facing door was left open in a strong wind event from that direction.
Also, along a lot of the West and Northwest coast, the wind will be blowing offshore (out to sea), when its normally blowing onshore during such an event, which brings a unique danger for anything in the water.

Meteorite58

Worth noting this tweet from the Met Office:

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/918826201325752320

cml387

Amidst all the talk of wind, could this be an imminent temperature event?

The south of England is looking at over 20 degrees this weekend, we may not be far off in the south if the sun comes out.

MJohnston

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Worth noting this tweet from the Met Office:

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/918826201325752320

I've seen a similar graphic a few times, Channel 4 news were using it...I know they probably have an understanding with Met E that they don't show any affects on Ireland, but it must be a bit misleading if you only watch the UK news channels.

Drumpot

Has the warm humid weather we have today any relation to this event ?

MJohnston

I know the Tropical Storm Wind speed probability charts have been posted a few times, but I think it's probably worth looking at the 50kt and Hurricane-force probability charts now too:

Gaoth Laidir

George Sunsnow wrote: »

GL,max sustained winds or gusts?

1-minute sustained.

Kermit.de.frog

Drumpot wrote: »

Has the warm humid weather we have today any relation to this event ?

Not directly today but over the weekend it is warm air being pushed up ahead of the system and that is a direct relation to this event.

See here

DOCARCH

Drumpot wrote: »

Has the warm humid weather we have today any relation to this event ?

Sort of the opposite! SW airflow from the (tropical) mid-Atlantic is giving us warm weather today (and will tomorrow too). It's this airflow that will 'drag' ex-Ophelia to us.