Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

Kermit.de.frog · 13-10-2017 4:59pm

For me this looks like a red warning right up the west coast and particularly the southwest

Leaksireland · 13-10-2017 5:03pm

Would this be worse than the usual winter wind events due to the trees still having most of their leaves

Donegal Storm · 13-10-2017 5:03pm

Slightly stronger on the 12z though largely similar to this morning. Gusts around 160kph possible in the south west, >100kph pretty much everywhere

This is showing winds at 925hPa so not expected surface winds but usually a good indication of max potential gusts

Sustained winds only around 80-100kph at worst on the coast though so nowhere near hurricane force

monkeynuz · 13-10-2017 5:06pm

Is this likely to cause problems into Tuesday?

Not looking forward to this as we live on Kenmare bay and have places to go on Tuesday!

Bigus · 13-10-2017 5:06pm

monkeynuz wrote: »

Is this likely to cause problems into Tuesday?

Not looking forward to this as we live on Kenmare bay and have places to go on Tuesday!

Just pack a chainsaw, I have mine ready .

Coax · 13-10-2017 5:07pm

Dutchy wrote: »

Doing me best to warn work colleagues & family members alike.
They're laughing it off & saying they'll get the tin hats prepared.
Still time for its trajectory to change but I do believe, in light of recent charts, a sterner warning should be issued by Met Eireann.

Hey,

You've done your bit by giving them a heads up.

Met Eireann will upgrade and issue the appropriate warnings when things become more certain (or less uncertain?) but until then, preparedness is noting to be laughed at. For example I've today planned ahead for Monday. If its just a typical winter storm then no harm done at all and I'm not inconvenienced. If its a little worse then we're all sorted at home with the winter supplies at hand, garden furniture stowed, trampoline bolted down, generator tested etc...

JCX BXC · 13-10-2017 5:08pm

monkeynuz wrote: »

Is this likely to cause problems into Tuesday?

Not looking forward to this as we live on Kenmare bay and have places to go on Tuesday!

Tuesday should be fine weather wise, only problems would be things like places without power, trees fallen etc if Monday is as bad as it looks.

Dutchy · 13-10-2017 5:11pm

MJohnston wrote: »

What time Monday evening?

Keep an eye on the TAF forecasts (The F stands for forecast but whatever :pac:) that JCX BXC mentioned, they should at least give you 24 hours notice of any likely cancellations.

Personally, I'd be looking for a Gatwick hotel with a free last-minute cancellation policy and booking it now, before everyone else figures it out!

I've booked a room in the Airport Inn Gatwick with free cancellation up until 2 pm on the day. Should see me right. Top tip, thanks.

EletricMan · 13-10-2017 5:12pm

For anyone that has a generator make sure ye have a change over switch, if not it will feed back out to esb networks and risk the lives of esb staff and anyone who may come in contact with fallen esb networks.

Pjkelly · 13-10-2017 5:14pm

What sort of wind speed/gusts are we looking at for mountainous areas of kerry , February 2014 was pretty violent I presume this is a lot worse ðŸ™

Meteorite58 · 13-10-2017 5:17pm

Pjkelly wrote: »

What sort of wind speed/gusts are we looking at for mountainous areas of kerry , February 2014 was pretty violent I presume this is a lot worse ðŸ™

At the moment looking as bad if not worse , bit to go yet. Clearer picture in a day or so.

Kermit.de.frog · 13-10-2017 5:29pm

GEM model take the center of the low a little further east, looking at landfall over Galway or Mayo

gem-0-72.png?12

Normally a good guide for the ECM later on.

mirrorwall14 · 13-10-2017 5:32pm

Its been a while since I weather watched like this, can anyone refresh my memories on the model result roll out times?

monkeynuz · 13-10-2017 5:33pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

GEM model take the center of the low a little further east, looking at landfall over Galway or Mayo

Normally a good guide for the ECM later on.

Does that mean it might not be as bad? Not looking forward to the potential problems as only 20-30 feet above sea level and 150 feet from the sea.

Kermit.de.frog · 13-10-2017 5:37pm

monkeynuz wrote: »

Does that mean it might not be as bad? Not looking forward to the potential problems as only 20-30 feet above sea level and 150 feet from the sea.

It would be that bit worse. That's severe.

But we got a bit to go yet here. No need to panic! It will be Sunday morning really before we know for sure.

JanuarySnowstor · 13-10-2017 5:41pm

The GEM LOOKS VIOLENT TBH
In general things have upgraded this afternoon for a direct hit over the southwest.
100mph gusts are very rare in this country and this storm could reach that level in southwest.

Will wait for ECM but for me a red is likely for the South and West with amber everywhere else
Early tomorrow is time enough though as things can still change

uck51js9zml2yt · 13-10-2017 5:42pm

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Gerald Fleming of Met Eireann has just been on RTÉ radio. He said that there's still a chance that the winds miss landfall.

Let's hope he's right.
There are indeed some suck puppies around who want this to hit!

Monkeynut · 13-10-2017 5:42pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It would be that bit worse. That's severe.

But we got a bit to go yet here. No need to panic! It will be Sunday morning really before we know for sure.

would dublin be not be hit as bad? if it did make landfall on mayo/galway?

pad199207 · 13-10-2017 5:43pm

Bus Eireann School Bus Drivers have been given the go ahead to cancel services on Monday.

The text says "Red Weather Warning"

monkeynuz · 13-10-2017 5:43pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It would be that bit worse. That's severe.

But we got a bit to go yet here. No need to panic! It will be Sunday morning really before we know for sure.

Thanks, have been panicking as family arriving Sunday and we're meant to be going away for a couple of nights, not far just a little bit up the coast so probably going from bad to worse!

Liffey4A · 13-10-2017 5:44pm

Thanks to everyone for posting explanations and model images during these events, fascinating reading.
Here's a predicted windspeed forecast I found (in mph) http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/forecast

Looks like the entire country could be in for some severe gusts at some stage Monday.

MJohnston · 13-10-2017 5:44pm

Monkeynut wrote: »

would dublin be not be hit as bad? if it did make landfall on mayo/galway?

You have to remember that the worst of the winds in this kind of storm are to the 'right' of the centre of it. So a shift east would probably hit Dublin worse, than if it skimmed the west coast.

Reckless Abandonment · 13-10-2017 5:45pm

Monkeynut wrote: »

would dublin be not be hit as bad? if it did make landfall on mayo/galway?

Winds on the east side of it will be the worst. South East especially. So the further east it moves the greater the chance the east coast gets the worst of it. But Wicklow/ Dublin mountains would take a bit of the sting out of it.

Itssoeasy · 13-10-2017 5:46pm

Kai Rotten Shipwreck wrote: »

Let's hope he's right.
There are indeed some suck puppies around who want this to hit!

I disagree that there are "sick puppies" here. There are however people who are very knowledgeable about weather and are simply interpreting what they see.

George Sunsnow · 13-10-2017 5:46pm

MJohnston wrote: »

You have to remember that the worst of the winds in this kind of storm are to the 'right' of the centre of it. So a shift east would probably hit Dublin worse, than if it skimmed the west coast.

Yes and the other issue are winds associated with squal lines as this storm could well import some thunderstorms with it

Reckless Abandonment · 13-10-2017 5:47pm

Monkeynut wrote: »

would dublin be not be hit as bad? if it did make landfall on mayo/galway?

Winds on the east side of it will be the worst. South East especially. So the further east it moves the greater the chance the east coast gets the worst of it. But Wicklow/ Dublin mountains would take a bit of the sting out of it. Still bad. East coast can't handle winds as well as the west

Kermit.de.frog · 13-10-2017 5:48pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The GEM LOOKS VIOLENT TBH
In general things have upgraded this afternoon for a direct hit over the southwest.
100mph gusts are very rare in this country and this storm could reach that level in southwest.

Will wait for ECM but for me a red is likely for the South and West with amber everywhere else
Early tomorrow is time enough though as things can still change

If the resolution was higher on the UKMO I suspect it would be looking just as severe for that part of the world.

George Sunsnow · 13-10-2017 5:51pm

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Winds on the east side of it will be the worst. South East especially. So the further east it moves the greater the chance the east coast gets the worst of it. But Wicklow/ Dublin mountains would take a bit of the sting out of it.

I’m just south of the Wicklow mountains
Darwin took out several trees here and we had no power for 4 days
We are very exposed to the southwest and by a freak of topography even though this is the east,we have the Irish Sea due east and south of us
I’m concerned about this one if it pans out as currently indicated as it could do a lot of damage
70 miles per hour gusts will down trees and power lines and damage roofs

MJohnston · 13-10-2017 5:52pm

I'd imagine there's a point where the Wicklow mountains aren't really a factor anymore, if the winds are spinning in directly from the east.

fryup · 13-10-2017 5:52pm

how long does a hurricane sustain its wind speed? a matter of hours ? days?

Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

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