Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

JanuarySnowstor

I'd say if the ECM is anything like the GEM Met Eireann will go red tonight.
As darkman says the UKmo is a direct hit

mirrorwall14

pad199207 wrote: »

Bus Eireann School Bus Drivers have been given the go ahead to cancel services on Monday.

The text says "Red Weather Warning"

Is that countrywide? Or a specific region?

DOCARCH

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I'd say if the ECM is anything like the GEM Met Eireann will go red tonight.

Way too early....the thing could fizzle out by Sunday or move track completely.

Kermit.de.frog

And just to emphasis the uncertainty another model showing the storm center staying well off shore.



A lot of uncertainty still. Location is everything, narrow margins. Unlikely but this could still even be a miss.

pad199207

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

Is that countrywide? Or a specific region?

My partners brother drives for Bus Eireann. He’s based in Mayo

DOCARCH

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

Is that countrywide? Or a specific region?

Unlikely to know until Sunday afternoon/evening.

tomcosgrave

There was me being a sceptic at the start of this thread saying it would go to Iceland!
I guess not! Have actually been on the edge of a hurricane (category 1) in 1996 when I was in Boston - not fun in any way.
My parents have a house in Wexford and I was telling them to look at it and make sure it was as secure as possible just in case a few windows got broken etc etc. They are hugely sceptical. Then I found out where they were going this weekend - Westport on Sunday for a concert!!!!!

H3llR4iser

Dutchy wrote: »

Doing me best to warn work colleagues & family members alike.
They're laughing it off & saying they'll get the tin hats prepared.
Still time for its trajectory to change but I do believe, in light of recent charts, a sterner warning should be issued by Met Eireann. I'm flying to the UK on Sat evening & due to return back to Dublin Monday evening. I'm preparing for an uncomfortable night in Gatwick Airport.

I was wondering the same (disclaimer: I'm no weather expert). I've got the feeling there isn't nearly enough thought being given to the potential of what's to come down on Monday; The general mood seems to be "it's going to be windy but business as usual!".

By the looks of it, however, the weather could be quite severe - and hitting at some point on Monday evening - if that turns out to be the case, and nothing is done on an institutional level, with plenty of people trying to make it home from work there's a potential for fairly big trouble.

For now, I've seen "drive carefully" warnings, which in the face of the charts above, seems a frankly ridiculous kind of advice...

Kermit.de.frog

tomcosgrave wrote: »

They are hugely sceptical. Then I found out where they were going this weekend - Westport on Sunday for a concert!!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pn0WdJx-Wkw

squarecircles

Anyone guesstimate what kind of wind gusts i could expect in the worse case scenario,less than a mile from the sea in West Mayo.

Kermit.de.frog

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I'd say if the ECM is anything like the GEM Met Eireann will go red tonight.
As darkman says the UKmo is a direct hit

Just waiting for the latest fax to confirm...

Donegal Storm

H3llR4iser wrote: »

I was wondering the same (disclaimer: I'm no weather expert). I've got the feeling there isn't nearly enough thought being given to the potential of what's to come down on Monday; The general mood seems to be "it's going to be windy but business as usual!".

By the looks of it, however, the weather could be quite severe - and hitting at some point on Monday evening - if that turns out to be the case, and nothing is done on an institutional level, with plenty of people trying to make it home from work there's a potential for fairly big trouble.

For now, I've seen "drive carefully" warnings, which in the face of the charts above, seems a frankly ridiculous kind of advice...

For most people that's likely going to be the case, the forecast winds for most of the country are nothing we haven't seen before, its just an unusual track and wind direction so trees might not be so well anchored and they're also still in leaf so falling trees will be the main danger. Cork and Kerry are mainly where any structural damage might be an issue

Tazio

I live near Kinsale Co Cork..

Just got email from Bus Eireann. School busses are cancelled due to RED status..

EDIT 're read email. Sorry.They are warning that when red is declared then they will cancel

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I'd say if the ECM is anything like the GEM Met Eireann will go red tonight.
As darkman says the UKmo is a direct hit

This morning you were saying it's nothing special! Quite a change. Far too early for red warnings which really should be for Sunday when there is more certainty.

Kermit.de.frog

Here is the fax analysis from the UK for the latest model run.

Destructive winds in the southwest - surge potential on south coast.

The center tracks north/north-east from there so the strong winds quickly become more widespread. Landfall around Galway/Mayo area. Unfortunately the next relevant chart is not available to us.

If you are near the southwest and up along the west coast you really should be taking action at this stage to prevent damage if at all possible.

mel.b

Tazio wrote: »

I live near Kinsale Co Cork..

Just got email from Bus Eireann. School busses are cancelled due to RED status..

EDIT 're read email. Sorry.They are warning that when red is declared then they will cancel

I work in a job where I have to visit schools and have two visits planned for Monday morning on the Clare coast. I rang the schools to see what the situation was if there was a red weather warning (likely for Clare I'd say) and they hadn't even thought about it!! This was 3pm this afternoon. I know I'd rather not be out on the road myself and actually rang the clients coming into me on Monday afternoon to let them know that if it was bad I will be cancelling their appts. We had a direct hit from Storm Darwin in Feb 2014 and i know I don't anyone out on the roads if it's going to be anything like that.

Coax

pad199207 wrote: »

My partners brother drives for Bus Eireann. He’s based in Mayo

Bus Eireann have sent email to school bus users (or their parents / guardians to be more exact) explaining the "Red means Stop" philosophy.

They explain that in the event of a Red warning being issued that school bus services will not operate in the areas covered by the red warning.

So unless Bus Eireann know something than Met Eireann don't the school bus service is still running at the moment

JCX BXC

What's the current position of the storm?

Wanderer78

JCX BXC wrote: »

What's the current position of the storm?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-21.46,42.12,1024/loc=-7.610,51.899

fraxinus1

Spent the afternoon securing sheds and battening down anything that could get blown around. Candles and gas stove at the ready.

My mother who is 94 was talking today about Debbie in 1961 and that the 2 or 3 days beforehand were very humid,similar to today.

Tazio

Siobhan just called it on weather forecast

Soccarboy11

Met eireann just said it isn't good for Ireland. They are taking this pretty seriously!

Itssoeasy

Tazio wrote: »

Siobhan just called it on weather forecast

yeah the sentence "doesn't paint a pretty picture" meant to get people to sit up and take notice.

James Bond Junior

mel.b wrote: »

I work in a job where I have to visit schools and have two visits planned for Monday morning on the Clare coast. I rang the schools to see what the situation was if there was a red weather warning (likely for Clare I'd say) and they hadn't even thought about it!! This was 3pm this afternoon. I know I'd rather not be out on the road myself and actually rang the clients coming into me on Monday afternoon to let them know that if it was bad I will be cancelling their appts. We had a direct hit from Storm Darwin in Feb 2014 and i know I don't anyone out on the roads if it's going to be anything like that.

I was trying to warn my principal today so she could send a precautionary text out now rather than at 6am Monday morning and she basically said will you go away and stop trying to get a day off. People are underestimating what is potentially going to hit us.

star gazer

Ophelia



Wunderground Plenty of reference to Ireland including historical events.
Jeff Masters was on rte six.one in a brief clip.

munsterlegend

James Bond Junior wrote: »

I was trying to warn my principal today so she could send a precautionary text out now rsther than at 6am Monday morning and she basically said will you go away and stop trying to get a day off. People are underestimating what is potentially going to hit us.

You must not have said it suave enough. She'll be shaken not stirred!

I'll get my coat.

Donegal Storm

No change on the 12z Euro, if anything the isobars look a touch tighter but hard to tell. If we still have such broad agreement this time tomorrow then a red warning will be inevitable for the south west

Coax

James Bond Junior wrote: »

I was trying to warn my principal today so she could send a precautionary text out now rsther than at 6am Monday morning and she basically said will you go away and stop trying to get a day off. People are underestimating what is potentially going to hit us.

My school took a good bit of time to get back to me but confirmed they will close if a red warning is issued. Can't get them to send a general text to this effect to all parents. Well at least I know they way they are planning it and have planned accordingly so which ever way it works out I'm covered without needing to take a day off work.

I'm in the same boat as yourself to be honest in regard to information, an advanced advisory text can allow parents to plan ahead. I'm still meeting people who either don't know about the weather potentially coming our way on Monday or those who say "it won't happen".

Really looking forward to the forecast over the next 36 - 48 hours and the development of this unfolding situation.

Kermit.de.frog

NAVGEM

northgirl

UCC issued a warning to all staff this afternoon. Perhaps pre-emptive but better than not IMO.