Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

Meteorite58

12Z ECM is keeping more or less to its previous track , 12Z APERGE is gone much more to the W

Meteorite58

12Z Icon Gust chart more or less the same

Kermit.de.frog

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

it may not even be a Cat 1

Can you imagine yourself before this ever saying something like that?:D

Yeah, we should be expecting more from our hurricane seasons. It's only Cat 1. Shocking.

Gaoth Laidir

I prefer the JTWC track chart as it shows the wind radii. The outermost ring is 34-knots and the next inside that is 50 knots. We can see at 12Z Monday 34-knot (gale-force) winds extending as far as Ulster (but of course well inland will not experience this), and 50-knots clipping the far southwest. It shows no 64-knot (hurricane-force) radius.



Here is the text for the same time.

72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 51.0N 11.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 25 KTS

Comhrá

I have often noticed that the most vociferous critics of Met Eireann and other professional forecasters are usually those with the least amount of knowledge and understanding of meteorology, climate and other things scientific.

As the saying goes...it's better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak (or post here) and remove all doubt.

Gaoth Laidir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Can you imagine yourself before this ever saying something like that?:D

Yeah, we should be expecting more from our hurricane seasons. It's only Cat 1. Shocking.

Bring on this global warming!

Larbre34

My family in Tampa Bay are ripping the p*ss out of me being concerned about a Hurricane as I speak. They drove a 2,000 mile round trip recently for their evacuation and all they ended up with wasa broken section of gutter!

Coax

Storm 10 wrote: »

Can anyone post the email from Bus Eireann re school transport if red warning is issued, I did not get one

I can't copy the text from the email unfortunately but it points to this page on their website

http /ww w.bus eireann.ie/inner.php?id=424

I can't post images or links but take out the spaces in the above and you have the link.

Meteorite58

The 12Z GFS Gust Chart looks like an upgrade to me and keeping quite close to the coast.

pad199207

Comhra wrote: »

I have often noticed that the most vociferous critics of Met Eireann and other professional forecasters are usually those with the least amount of knowledge and understanding of meteorology, climate and other things scientific.

As the saying goes...it's better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak (or post here) and remove all doubt.

Nobody is criticizing Met Eireann. They are going about this the right way. At least in my view anyway.

It’s just the critics afterwards who said it didn’t happen or the “what was the point in a orange or red warning” brigade who annoy quite a few.

Upgrade and downgrade warnings as the conditions see fit.

Gaoth Laidir

12Z ECMWF wind forecast (but for 100 m amsl, not the surface).

12Z Monday. Hurricane-force winds golden shades. Force 9-11 winds pink shades.


18Z Monday


00Z Tuesday


The heaviest rainfall is on the western half, well out to sea.

Meteorite58

This afternoon.

Mech1

OK, Time for my unashamed advertising of my Liveatc feed!

This type of event usually pushes the listener numbers of my feed way up, it takes a while to get to understand the lingo but its easy and interesting when you do.

Any questions about air traffic should be directed to here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057555939&page=122

PLEASE DONT BLOCK UP THIS WEATHER THREAD WITH AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS

You can listen in to live air traffic control from Dublin airport via my rooftop antenna by clicking on here:https://www.liveatc.net/search/?icao=eidw

and you can watch a live radar picture of the aircraft by clicking on here: https://www.flightradar24.com/52.43,-5.07/7

If (and it may well do so) My antenna comes down during this event, people have donated previously and we have another antenna that we can deploy so if the feed goes down keep checking as it may well come back.

Keep Safe everyone and enjoy what you can of the weather situation.

ronnie3585

^^

Amazing! It's not too often you see a defined eye within striking distance of Ireland!

4068ac1elhodqr

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

12Z ECMWF wind forecast (but for 100 m amsl, not the surface).

18Z Monday

That's interesting (if accurate), showing a movement of 9-11 from W to the heavily populated SE & E coast.

Can remember hearing on the radio during the last significant storm (severe gales only) of an upturned truck on the M1. You could almost guarantee that with this one, if it moves anywhere near the M1.

TheMilkyPirate

All the talk of met eireann is a bit tiresome tbh. Thread is much more interesting discussing the actual storm/model discussion. I find myself skimming through 60% of the posts.

Met Eireann will put out their warnings when they see fit nothing we say will change that.

M.T. Cranium

Except for the Arpege shift west, almost all useful guidance has the storm pointing at western counties of Ireland.

Just a thought about how a small hurricane interacts with the jet stream. It's about like a spider in a bathtub a couple of inches away from a jet of water, it might look like it's in charge until it gets enveloped by that jet, then it's flushed down the drain.

This is pretty much the background on the uncertainty here, now that Ophelia is moving more quickly northeast, it's only a matter of 24-36 hours until we reach that point. Then it's 99% determined by the jet position and air mass frontal boundaries ahead of the hurricane, as powerful as it may look in isolation, it is not going to push these zones or boundaries around but will go off to extinction as determined.

The October 1987 storm only had some vague tropical antecedents from several days earlier and was essentially a fast-developing wave on a front in a deep trough not unlike the one developing this weekend. So even if Ophelia were not there at all, something fairly energetic would develop to the southwest of Ireland and move northeastwards. Ophelia just happens to be there and so we'll probably get a 1987 type storm from that origin instead of from scratch.

I don't have any hunches about this, just to say it would be unusual for there to be a large change in outcome from such a tight model consensus at 72 hours, however, anything is possible when dealing with the atmosphere. My current estimate of probability of warnings would be:

60% __ Level 3 required at least in west (20% widespread level 3, 40% isolated to smaller areas)

25% __ Level 2 highest warning level required

15% __ Level 1 highest warning level required

and as to timing, let's just go with onset in Kerry and Cork, and maximum in Galway ... add one hour to z times for IST ...

earliest more than 5% possible -- Monday 04z onset Kerry and Cork, 09z max Galway

median of timing chances -- Monday 09z onset Kerry and Cork, 14z max Galway

latest more than 5% possible -- Monday 15z onset and 21z max Galway

... of course, there is an independent possibility of no event due to westward shift but the timing of strong winds to the west over the ocean would follow that general pattern too.

JanuarySnowstor

That ELM chart says an awful lot.
Cork looks poised as an ideal spot for weather fans. Storm surge, onshore force 11 winds.
Considering the level of model agreement I think we'll be pretty certain how things will pan out by the morning.
My prediction for warning as follows
West, South and Donegal = red
Rest = amber with possible flash red if sting jet occurs

Pangea

Over the years I have noticed most of the storms tend to track west close to Donegal Bay in the end.

pilly

JanuarySnowstor wrote:

That ELM chart says an awful lot. Cork looks poised as an ideal spot for weather fans. Storm surge, onshore force 11 winds. Considering the level of model agreement I think we'll be pretty certain how things will pan out by the morning. My prediction for warning as follows West, South and Donegal = red Rest = amber with possible flash red if sting jet occurs

What part of Cork?

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/918923414550827008

Sierra Oscar

Dublin City Council are taking precautions, flood barriers along north & south strands are being put in place from Sunday afternoon.

sumtings

If it does go to a red warning;

from a couple of hours pre landfall, whatever that means, is there any chance we could have a separate more technical thread charting its progress? Would this even be possible, where maybe some of the detail doesn't get lost.

A no chat, chart and fact style thing.

Meteorite58

sumtings wrote: »

If it does go to a red warning;

from a couple of hours pre landfall, whatever that means, is there any chance we could have a separate more technical thread charting its progress? Would this even be possible, where maybe some of the detail doesn't get lost.

A no chat, chart and fact style thing.

MOD NOTE: Thanks for the suggestion, it has been noted and will be considered.

DOCARCH

sumtings wrote: »

If it does go to a red warning;

from a couple of hours pre landfall, whatever that means, is there any chance we could have a separate more technical thread charting its progress? Would this even be possible, where maybe some of the detail doesn't get lost.

A no chat, chart and fact style thing.

Yes....probably....

thecretinhop

Which direction is it coming from roughly?

mirrorwall14

There’s been a few mentions of the Wicklow mountains sheltering Dublin, what about north kildare/midlands areas?

Assuming it comes on as expected on the south west coast, if the worst scenario is realised what would we be looking at?

TheMilkyPirate

thecretinhop wrote: »

Which direction is it coming from roughly?

South West

hatrickpatrick

Lads, no one is asking the key question here - is Teresa Mannion on her way to Salthill Promenade yet?

sdanseo

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Lads, no one is asking the key question here - is Teresa Mannion on her way to Salthill Promenade yet?

That'd be an unnecessary journey.